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Author Topic: Polar Prediction Workshop 2017 in Germany from 27th to 30th March  (Read 2070 times)


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The Polar Prediction Workshop 2017 (PPW 2017) and the 2nd Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project Meeting (2nd SIMIP Meeting) will be held at Deutsches Schiffahrtsmuseum ( in Bremerhaven, Germany from 27th to 30th March 2017. Both events are jointly organized by the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (WCRP-PCPI), the Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP), the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP).

The list of papers presented for discussion can be found here:

Among others, I just wanted to single out the paper by Dirk Notz, titled:
"When is all the sea ice gone?"

A literally burning question these times...
« Last Edit: March 25, 2017, 07:11:51 AM by AndrewB »

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Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein


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Re: Polar Prediction Workshop 2017 in Germany from 27th to 30th March
« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2017, 01:46:41 PM »
Notz,   Dirk:   Max   Planck   Institute   for   Meteorology,   Germany
When   is   all   the   sea   ice   gone?
The    long-term evolution of Arctic summer sea ice is receiving increasing public attention, given the prospects of a complete sea-ice loss during summer before mid century. In this presentation,    I will discuss the relationship between observations and models as relevant for estimating the evolution of sea ice on time scales of a few decades. In particular, I will outline why it is so difficult to identify   models that most reliably   simulate the future of Arctic sea ice, making a   reliable estimate   of   the   timing   of   a near-ice    free    Arctic    from    large-scale    model    simulations    very    hard.    Based    on    this discussion,   I will   then   introduce   an   observation-based   estimate   of   the   future   evolution   of Arctic    sea    ice    that    considers    our    physical    understanding    of    the    main    processes    that   
cause   the   ongoing   ice   loss.