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Author Topic: But, but, but Germany ....  (Read 3983 times)

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #50 on: April 30, 2017, 07:24:41 PM »
Exports are rescuing coal power, which is increasingly not needed to cover domestic demand

Are these exports helping to fund the baseload capacity required to balance the renewables in the short-term; can the coal plant be run at a relatively stable loading with exports offsetting doemstic demand cuts when renewables ramp up?

https://energytransition.org/2017/01/renewable-energy-production-stagnates-in-germany-in-2016/



Much bigger focus required outside the electricity sector, on transport (oil) and heating (gas):






rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #51 on: April 30, 2017, 07:38:41 PM »
Renewable energy made up just over 41% of Germany’s power supply last month, the most ever at around 19.5 TWh

https://energytransition.org/2017/04/march-was-a-record-month-for-renewable-power-in-germany/


Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #52 on: April 30, 2017, 11:50:25 PM »
Got this chart from official website of German government. Can't discover that kind of decline your chart shows. (BP 2016=Oil concern provided?!  :o) To be more precisely-we are not burning "more dirty coal than ever", but much more dirty coal than neccessary. In my opinion it is the religious believe that free, unregulated markets will heal all on their own....

Which of the charts I posted are you referencing? 

Please translate the column heading on your chart.  I don't see anything about the amount of coal being burned, only info about emissions.  But I don't read German.

Germany is burning a lot more coal than necessary.  Lots to supply the export market.

BP reports both tonnes and "oil equivalents" for fossil fuels.  Using oil equivalents allows comparision from one fuel to another.

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #53 on: May 01, 2017, 12:06:18 AM »
Here my pdf-calculations regarding driving an EV. It's in german, could translate -but maybe it is obviously also in german.

If you use German retail electricity prices when calculating EV charging costs they are going to come out high.  But the underlying cost of German retail electricity for larger volume consumers is roughly the cost of electricity in France.



It's all about taxes.  Germany piles the taxes onto their cost of electricity.



I'm not sure that makes any sense at all if the goal is to lower CO2 emissions.  Roll the subsidies back onto general tax dollars and quit adding VAT (sales) tax to retail electricity.  Germany has a disincentive program for getting off fossil fuels in place.

Same with heat pumps.  Either drop the high taxes on retail electricity or create special rates for EV charging and home heating.  In California the average price for retail electricity is 18.6 cents but if you're charging an EV you pay only 9 cents.  Easy enough to have lower qualifying rates for houses that have EVs and/or heat pumps.

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #54 on: May 01, 2017, 12:09:11 AM »
Are these exports helping to fund the baseload capacity required to balance the renewables in the short-term; can the coal plant be run at a relatively stable loading with exports offsetting doemstic demand cuts when renewables ramp up?

No.  From what I've heard exports are not rising when the wind is blowing harder or the Sun shining. 

Don't have any data.  Data rules.

My take is that fossil and nuclear plants in Germany are selling whenever they can in order to postpone bankruptcy.

Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #55 on: May 01, 2017, 12:14:31 AM »
Much bigger focus required outside the electricity sector, on transport (oil) and heating (gas):

Remember, a very large portion of primary energy used for transportation (and electricity generation) will not need to be replaced.  Over 50% of all fossil fuel energy is lost as waste heat.

Take a look at how much primary energy was wasted in the US in 2014.  Almost 60%.




Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #56 on: May 01, 2017, 01:07:38 AM »
Here's the 2016 version...





There will be some wasted energy when we use renewables.  EVs may be the most wasteful.  About 10% of the incoming energy will be lost as heat while charging batteries and an additional 10% lost due to friction loss between motor and road.  (Moving to inhub wheels might lower that some.)

nicibiene

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #57 on: May 01, 2017, 11:36:54 AM »
I'm not sure that makes any sense at all if the goal is to lower CO2 emissions.  Roll the subsidies back onto general tax dollars and quit adding VAT (sales) tax to retail electricity.  Germany has a disincentive program for getting off fossil fuels in place.

In my heat pump compairision was VAT even excluded. The financial ministry even earns much more VAT on the higher taxes of renewables!  :o (what the hell is the sense in there?!)

Much bigger focus required outside the electricity sector, on transport (oil) and heating (gas):

Indeed that is the problem! The price system in place is a disincentive system for private costumers that are not common with the urgent problem of climate change. The private sector currently has to carry ALL the costs of renewables. All high energy industry (and the rules for that got lower and lower) has not to pay anything.

If you want to get a movement into transport and heat you either need a well informed public that is willing to install the new techniques, drive an EV or you need a price system that could make a guiding job.

At the moment, if you turn your energy consumption to renewables, or even install own PV, you are the biggest looser ever. Blamed a) having too much money to "waste" b) causing high energy prices. Beside that the system serves the well established german envy factor.  :D

The transistion of all -energy, transport, heat- is a transistion to electricity. Why not dividing the costs through the wider basis of fossil fuels? The costs could be also lower if there were no import duties on chinese solar panels, protecting the European factories (and prices)....

The low market price of energy, and so the costs causing gap to guaranteed price for renewables is caused by overproduction of coal powered energy... but the mechanism of the price system is well hidden, and the media does NOTHING to explain it. It is told: higher amount of renewables is causing higher EEG-Umlage, grids have to be built out due to renewables = higher costs for your electricity - no alternative.

All that mess is no coincidence, but the work of thousands of fossil lobbyists and industry close politicians, that are not willing to change a failing system obviously giving no answers for the future.

By the way: my posted chart refered to the last chart before tCO2/TW it was about the development of gCO2/kWh.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 12:02:30 PM by nicibiene »
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein

nicibiene

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #58 on: May 01, 2017, 04:11:46 PM »
Additionally I highly recommend the website of Fraunhofer institute-here you can find everything about Germanys power production, prices, export... -a kind of magic that site, even in full english available. :)

There I found about the increase of the export first after I did some resarch powered by my curiotisy. - but I actually find that there are no more that nice interactive cake diagrams for export/import since 2015 - I could swear there were the 2016/2017 too recently! I also can not find any monthly datas about export since Feb. 2017-  :-X maybe another try to hide some unconvinient datas-preparing the upcoming election?

https://www.energy-charts.de/power.htm

Another aspect is a total stagnation of installation of new PV since 2013/2014 due to drastic cuts in the guaranteed prices.



graphic shows the guaranteed payment decreased more than the system prices and so it got all pretty unattractive for bigger players or investors.

As I´m planning my own PV I had to realize that the guaranteed price is very, very close to my costs-no bonus profit for capital investment risk to get anymore-as it was in the beginning of EEG (about 20% profit I think). The entire thing is only "profitable" for people that could consume the electricity directly when it is produced. Otherwise it is a nearly null game or a thing of idealism-with the investion risk you have to carry. The investion pays off after 10 years.

Beside there are nearly no banks that offer KFW-credits for PV for privates. As bank houses earn generally nothing due to the low level of interests they are not willing to do the unprofitable business with low-interest KfWloans.

Another thing is the absolutely complicated -and expensive- tax administration of every single little PV power plant. You even have to pay VAT on the energy you use directly - calculated on the basis of the price you would have to pay if you buy it expensive at a supplier. Of course you have the choice to do the small buisness without VAT, but then it makes the thing even more expensive, because you loose the chance to get the VAT from your installation invoice...

All in one all is done to make the thing absulutely unattractive for people, to let the people feel angry about the renewable idea as a whole - and the communication about climate change is nearly not taking place in the public, newspapers or TV.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 05:30:28 PM by nicibiene »
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #59 on: July 25, 2017, 05:26:49 AM »
The future of Germany’s Energiewende

"A key decision for voters in the coming election will be who guides the country’s Energiewende. Germany’s much-feted transition to a low carbon economy is going to face challenging circumstances in the next legislative period (2017 – 2021).

First, 2020 will be a year of reckoning for the incoming coalition. Germany is likely to meet its renewable targets but fall short on goals to cut energy consumption and increase energy productivity under its EU obligation. Most damaging for the Energiewende’s international credibility, the government will miss its national 2020 climate target by a wide margin. Instead of cutting emissions by 40%, the latest estimates see the country hitting only 32%."



"With near-term targets likely to be missed, the challenge ahead is to meet the country’s mid-term targets. These include cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 55% from 1990 levels and increasing the share of renewables in the power supply to at least 50% by 2030."



https://energytransition.org/2017/07/the-future-of-germanys-energiewende/






Bob Wallace

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #60 on: July 25, 2017, 07:45:31 AM »
Thought I'd take a look at how Germany is doing with CO2 emissions relative to 1990.



Very unlikely Germany will meet their 2020 goal. They weren't really on track prior to the Fukushima disaster and their decision to close reactors earlier than planned stalled them out for a couple of years.  (Eyeballed lower red arrow line.)

Resetting the hypothetical line higher doesn't help.

However, what is not shown is the impact of Germany (perhaps) putting a lot of EVs/PHEVs on their roads between 2020 and 2030.

I don't know what will happen in Germany politically.  Will coal fight a tough retreat or will the rapid falling price of wind (especially offshore) and solar take over and drop emissions faster than the 1990 to 2010 rate?  Will the German green movement be reinvigorated?

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« Reply #61 on: August 24, 2017, 07:14:30 PM »
Wind power hit record low price in German auctions. Few are happy.

The structure of the auctions gave precedence to "citizen" projects, quite a few of which seem to be fronts for big companies. These projects don't have to have an environmental impact assessment in place, and have 54 months (rather than 30) to complete the project. Overall impact will be to delay the implementation of the next bunch of wind projects, slowing down the growth of wind capacity within Germany.

"There has been the great criticism of the auction’s definition of “citizen projects.” The government has already stated that this category will be done away with for future auctions; there was simply not enough time to get rid of it in the second round based on the results from the first round (report in German), in which a company called Enertrag organized citizen groups in order to become eligible for preferential treatment.

“Citizen projects” have 54 months to be built instead of 30 months – though that shorter timeframe is already quite generous. In addition, citizen wind projects do not have to already have an environmental impact assessment, which under German law is essentially also a construction permit, to take part in the auctions."

"As in the first round, it is not certain that all of these winning projects will actually pass the environmental impact assessment, which they nonetheless need in order to start building. The result could be a very low volume of new builds starting in 2019 because “citizen projects” from 2017 have until 2021/2022 to be completed. This downturn may not yet be felt fully in 2018 because of the current backlog of projects under construction."

https://energytransition.org/2017/08/wind-power-hit-record-low-price-in-german-auctions-few-are-happy/