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AbruptSLR

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Re: Floods
« Reply #50 on: August 31, 2017, 05:33:18 PM »
The linked Scribbler article discusses how currently 42 million people in South Asia are being negatively impacted by flooding:

Title: "Half a World Away From Harvey, Global Warming Fueled Deluges Now Impact 42 Million People"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/30/half-a-world-away-from-harvey-global-warming-fueled-deluges-now-impact-42-million-people/

Extract: "Rising sea surface temperatures in South Asia led to more moisture in the atmosphere, providing this year’s monsoon with its ammunition for torrential rainfall. — The Pacific Standard
While flooding is common in the region, climate change has spurred dramatic weather patterns, greatly exacerbating the damage. As sea temperatures warm, moisture increases, a dynamic also at play in the record-setting rainfall in Texas. — Think Progress"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #51 on: September 01, 2017, 01:38:49 PM »
A third of Bangladesh under water as flood devastation widens
Quote
As the world's media trains its sights on the tragic events in Texas and Louisiana, another water-driven catastrophe is unfolding in villages like Beraberi throughout Bangladesh and parts of Nepal and India.

There, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) estimates that at least 1,200 have died and more than 41 million people have been affected by monsoon rains and severe flooding as of June this year. The rains are now moving northwest towards Pakistan, where more devastation is expected.

At its peak on August 11, almost a week's worth of average monsoon rainfall was dumped across parts of Bangladesh in the space of one day, according to the country's Meteorological Department, forcing villagers throughout northern areas to grab what few possessions they could carry and flee their homes in search of higher ground.

And still the rains keep coming. In Bangladesh alone, floods have so far claimed the lives of 142 people, and impacted over 8.5 million.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/09/01/asia/bangladesh-south-asia-floods/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #52 on: September 02, 2017, 06:10:25 PM »
Over 100 000 flee their homes after heavy rains, flooding in Nigeria
Quote
... Benue state, which is heavily reliant on its agricultural sector, has suffered repeated floods in recent years, caused by heavy rains and the opening of dams in neighbouring Cameroon.

In 2012, Nigeria suffered disastrous floods across 30 of its 36 states. Hundreds of people died, and some two million people were left homeless.
http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/over-100-000-flee-their-homes-after-heavy-rains-flooding-in-nigeria-20170901
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #53 on: September 19, 2017, 09:53:52 PM »
Have you 'seen' the onset/return of the Indian monsoon? Viz based on a 36y dataset on #Google #EarthEngine. Also see https://mobile.twitter.com/birdcountindia/status/909746515681226752

https://twitter.com/mdmadhusudan/status/909970111582187520
GIF of typical progession of seasonal monsoon rains at the links.
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bligh8

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Re: Floods
« Reply #54 on: September 27, 2017, 04:07:55 AM »
18 Major Flood Events Have Hit Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas Since March 2015
 August 16 2016 01:45 PM EDTweather.com
By Jon Erdman
Harvey Pushed Down Parts of Texas
00:38
Harvey Pushed Down Parts of Texas
The weight of Hurricane Harvey's flood water was so great that it actually sank the crust on which it sat in some parts of southeastern Texas, according to a NASA earthquake scientist.
At a Glance
A corridor from Texas and Louisiana to Missouri has been hammered with major flood events since spring 2015.
The billion-dollar Louisiana flood is just the latest such event.
A massive flood swamped parts of southern and eastern Louisiana in August 2016, the latest in a string of more than a dozen flood events that have affected parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri since March 2015.

The most recent event from a swath of up to 31 inches of rain in just two days' time flooded tens of thousands of homes, led to at least 20,000 rescues and also triggered significant flooding in parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

(RECAPS: Record Rain, Flooding in Louisiana | Likely a Billion-Dollar Disaster)


Rankings of wettest 12-month periods on record ending August 14, 2016 in the southern U.S. A ranking of "2" means it was the second wettest August 15 - August 14 period on record.
(Southeast Regional Climate Center)
Over a 12-month period ending Aug. 14, 2016, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (98.83 inches), and Bergstrom Airport near Austin, Texas (67.86 inches) had their wettest Aug. 15-Aug. 14 12-month period on record, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

The six-month period from March-August 2015 was record wet in parts of Oklahoma.

Only a flash drought kicking in late in the summer in parts of Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas kept it from ranking similar wet in those locations during that same time.

An analysis by FEMA and NOAA/NCEI from 1996-2013 found parts of Texas northeastward through Arkansas and Missouri average one to five flood events yearly.

In just under 18 months, however, the number, extremity and widespread nature of flood events has been incredible in this region.

Here are some of the most notable flood events that have swamped this area since March 2015. Some are more localized, some more widespread.

Mid-Late March 2015
March 12: Streets closed, cars stalled in high water in Shreveport and Bossier City, Louisiana.
March 21: Stalled front lead to training storms near the Texas, southwest Louisiana coast. Numerous cars stalled in high water in Jefferson County, Texas.
April 16-18, 2015
Wall collapsed at recreation building at Sam Houston State University in Huntsville, Texas.
At least 65 homes flooded in Houston.
FULL RECAP

Flood damage to the Recreational Sports Center at Sam Houston State University in Huntsville, Texas, on April 16, 2015.
(Sam Houston State University)
Late April 2015
Roads washed out near Rio Vista, Texas.
Water several feet deep in downtown Waxahachie, Texas, businesses.
Water rescues in San Antonio metro.
Epic May 2015
May 6-7: Record wet May day in Oklahoma City; DeWitt, Nebraska evacuated, flooded.
May 18: Water 10-12 feet deep in San Angelo. Airport closed.
Record, catastrophic flood of Blanco River at Wimberley, Texas May 24.
Considered worst flooding, by some, in Houston on May 25-26 since Allison.
May 28: Homes flooded in Shallowater, Texas and UMC hospital flooded in Lubbock.
May 29: Water rescues in parts of Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex.
Wettest month on record in Texas and Oklahoma.
FULL RECAP
Tropical Storm Bill: June 2015
At least one location in eight states saw four inches or more rainfall from Bill, including Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas.
Severe flooding in Ardmore, Oklahoma.
Record river flooding on Washita River at Dickson, Oklahoma, West Mustang Creek near Ganado, Texas, the Lavaca River near Edna, Texas, and the James River near Springfield, Missouri.
FULL RECAP

Water pours over Turner Falls and floods the park below on Thursday, June 18, 2015, in Davis, Oklahoma.
(Steve Sisney/The Oklahoman via AP)
Early July 2015
July 7: Wettest day on record in Abilene, Texas (8.26 inches). Major flooding, water rescues throughout the city and also in San Angelo, Texas.
Roaring Fork State Park near Cassville, Missouri, flooded.
July 8: Flooding prompted evacuations in Muskogee, Oklahoma.
Flooding also stretched into parts of Kentucky and Indiana.
FULL RECAP

Cars swept into a pile by flooding in Branson, Missouri, on July 7, 2015.
(Sierra Dobson)
August 31, 2015
One to four feet of water inundated much of Brownsville, Texas.
Numerous vehicles and dozens of properties were flooded.
October 8-9, 2015
Deadly flash flooding swamps Eagle Pass, Texas.
Two were killed, 60 left homeless.
The city reported 90 water rescues ongoing at one time during the flood.
Patricia's Ghost: October 21-25, 2015
Leftover upper-level energy and moisture from eastern Pacific Hurricane Patricia contributed to massive flooding in much of Texas and parts of Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi.
Over 20 inches of rain swamped Corsicana, Texas, inundating a stretch of Interstate 45.
Over 100 roads damaged or washed out in Navarro County, Texas.
Flash flooding also in Austin and Houston.
Fourth wettest calendar day on record in New Orleans (8.67 inches on October 25).
RECAPS: Weather Roundup | Impacts

A sampling of total rainfall reports from Tuesday, October 20, 2015 through Monday October 26, 2015.
Halloween Deluge
Second wettest calendar day on record in Austin, Texas. Flooding prompted the tower at Austin-Bergstrom Int'l Airport to close. Nearly 600 homes flooded in Travis County.
The Blanco River flooded both San Marcos and Wimberley, Texas, just five months after the destructive Memorial Day flood.
Interstate 45 was once again flooded near Corsicana, Texas.
Lake Mexia, Texas, rose to 4 feet above normal pool, prompting evacuations.
Parts of the Houston metro picked up over 12 inches of rain.
At least 20 homes were flooded in Grant Parish, Louisiana.
RECAPS: Weather Stats | Impacts
November 2015
Yet again, water rescues on Interstate 45 in Navarro County, Texas on November 6.
November 17: Water rescues in Nacogdoches, Texas; washouts in Hudson and Pollock, Texas, high water in a North Shreveport neighborhood; washouts in Sharp County, Arkansas.
November 27: More flooding in north Texas, including the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro, Johnson County, Texas; Major flooding on Trinity River at Dallas.
Wettest November on record in Arkansas; second wettest November in Oklahoma.
RECAP: Late November South Flood

Selected rainfall totals at regularly reporting observation sites from 6 a.m. CST Wednesday, Nov. 25 to 6 p.m. CST Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015.
December Mississippi River Flood
Record flood crests in Okahoma, Missouri, and Illinois, including along the Mississippi River in Cape Girardeau, Missouri.
24-mile stretch of Interstate 44 closed due to flooding southwest of St. Louis.
Bonnet Carre Spillway activated to divert excess Mississippi River water away from New Orleans.
FULL RECAP

Before/after images of Interstate 44 flooded in Valley Park, Missouri, in December 2015.
(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson and Google Earth)
March 2016 Flooding in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas
The top rainfall total from this multi-day heavy rain event March 8-11 was just shy of 27 inches south-southeast of Monroe, Louisiana. The official airport reporting station in Monroe picked up 20.66 inches of rain.
A least nine locations saw record crests on various rivers and bayous.
The Sabine River at Deweyville, Texas, crested at 33.24 feet on March 15, topping the unofficial May 1884 record of 32.2 feet, due to previous record releases from Toledo Bend Reservoir well upstream. At those levels, the town of Deweyville was isolated, with numerous homes flooded and widespread, catastrophic flooding.
RECAPS: Weather Notables | Extreme Weather Pattern

Rainfall is estimated from March 7-12, 2016. The heaviest totals, generally in excess of 6 inches, fell in the areas shaded in yellow. River/areal flood warnings on March 12, 2016 shown by green polygons.
April 2016 Houston "Tax Day" Flood
10-20 inches of rain over the north and west sides of the Houston metro, not far from where the May 2016 heavy rain swath was.
Over 6 inches of rain in parts of Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska and Oklahoma.
April 18: Second wettest calendar day on record for any official Houston area reporting station (9.92 inches at Bush Intercontinental Airport).
Also, second wettest April day on record in Shreveport just over a month after their epic March flood.
Major flooding on the Colorado River at Columbus, the Navidad River at Sublime, Spring Creek near Spring, and Cypress Creek near Cypress.
RECAPS: Weather Notables | Impacts
Late April 2016 Deadly Palestine, Texas, Flash Flood
Just under 8 inches of rain triggered deadly flash flooding in Palestine, Texas, on April 29.
Five family members were swept away by floodwaters and drowned. Water reportedly reached the roof top of the home.
Two vehicles in Lake Charles, Louisiana were swept away, and several cars were submerged on Interstate 49 near Carencro, Louisiana. Water reportedly entered homes in that area, as well.
Water rescues were also performed in Lewisville, Arkansas, and homes in Gin City, Arkansas, took on water.
RECAP: Impacts

48-hour estimated rainfall ending 7 a.m. CT, Saturday, April 30, 2016 (contours) and reports of flooding (blue icons) April 29-30, 2016.
May 16, 2016: Corpus Christi, Texas
Locally over a foot of rain triggered flash flooding early on May 16.
Numerous water rescues were performed.
Water was reportedly over the roofs of cars on the city's southeast side.
Residents of Ingleside had to be rescued from their homes.
RECAP: Impacts, Photos
Late May-Early June 2016 Flood Siege
A parade of thunderstorm clusters across central and southeast Texas on May 26-27 laid down a swath of 10-20 inches of rain from just southeast of the city of Austin to the far northern suburbs of Houston.
An observer east of Brenham, Texas, measured an incredible 20.50 inches of rain on May 27, alone, the wettest day on record, there dating to 1897.
Austin-Bergstrom Airport picked up 8.79 inches of rain the previous day, their second wettest calendar day dating to 1942. Amazingly, their wettest day was just about seven months prior, when 12.49 inches of rain on October 30, 2015 prompted the airport tower to close.
The Brazos River at Richmond (near Rosenberg) crested on June 2, 4.4 feet above its previous record set on Oct. 21, 1994.
Several locations in the far northern suburbs of Houston flooded in April and again in late May 2016.
Some rivers in southeast Texas, including Spring Creek, the San Jacinto, and Trinity Rivers, also flooded one year ago almost to the day of this late May/early June flood. In most of these cases, flood crests topped those from May 2015.
Nine soldiers stationed at Ft. Hood, Texas, were killed when their truck was washed away by flooding during a training exercise.
RECAPS: Weather Notables | Impacts, Photos

Before (May 4, 2013) and after (May 28, 2016) Landsat 8 imagery of the flooded Brazos River Valley west of Monaville, Texas.
(NASA Earth Observatory)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7.

 
 

 

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Louisiana Flood of August 2016 (PHOTOS)


1 / 350
Daniel Stover, 17, moves a boat of personal belongings from a friend's home flooded home in Sorrento, La., Saturday, Aug. 20, 2016. Louisiana continues to dig itself out from devastating floods, with search parties going door to door looking for survivors or bodies trapped by flooding.

click on picture to see flood results
« Last Edit: September 27, 2017, 01:19:05 PM by bligh8 »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #55 on: September 27, 2017, 02:58:02 PM »
Flood planning -- or lack thereof -- for Washington, D.C.

“When the big storm hits D.C., the resulting disaster may not kill as many as Katrina, or flood as much physical real estate as Harvey, but the toll it takes on American institutions will be unfathomable. The storm will paralyze many of the agencies that operate and defend the nation, raising the specter of national-security threats.”

What Happens When a Superstorm Hits D.C.?
A major hurricane could paralyze the government and jeopardize national security. Why is the capital so unprepared?
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/what-happens-when-a-superstorm-hits-dc-w504341
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #56 on: September 27, 2017, 07:18:19 PM »
What would an entirely flood-proof city look like?

The wetter the better. From sponge cities in China to ‘berms with benefits’ in New Jersey and floating container classrooms in the slums of Dhaka, we look at a range of projects that treat storm water as a resource rather than a hazard
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/sep/25/what-flood-proof-city-china-dhaka-houston#img-1
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Floods
« Reply #57 on: September 30, 2017, 07:20:12 PM »
The linked reference uses New Orleans as a 'canary in a coal mine' to evaluate coastal flooding risk associated with deep uncertainties from abrupt ice mass loss from the WAIS, and they find that for the next fifty years the biggest risks come from increased storm surge from more frequent strong hurricanes (see Hansen's 'Storms of My Grandchildren'); however, this research does not evaluate the risks of flooding from increased hurricane rainfall such as occurred during Hurricane Harvey:

Tony E. Wong & Klaus Keller (20 September 2017), "Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans", Earth's Future, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000607

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000607/abstract

Abstract: "Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, Louisiana. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans."
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sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #58 on: October 12, 2017, 10:51:00 PM »
FEMA seriously behind on revising floodplain maps:

"The Federal Emergency Management Agency has delayed decisions on flood zone determinations — in some cases by two years or more — and currently has more than 240 mapping projects on hold, the department's inspector general warned in a report dated Sept. 27.

As a result, only 42 percent of FEMA’s flood risk database is currently up to date, meaning more than half of the country’s flood map miles need to be revised, the review found. The agency’s stated goal is to have 80 percent of its flood maps current."

Some of the reasons are  political: homeowners shriek a lot when the floodplain is revised to include their own house ... on the other hand the insurance industry has clout and wants to raise flood risk insurance premiums if they are to stay in the market.

http://thehill.com/video/354564-in-aftermath-of-hurricanes-femas-slow-flood-mapping-leaves-homeowners-vulnerable

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Alexander555

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Alexander555

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Re: Floods
« Reply #60 on: October 27, 2017, 06:21:54 PM »

Alexander555

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #62 on: November 26, 2017, 06:54:49 PM »
Washington state, U.S.:  Communities along the Skagit River are seeing this week the highest levels of flooding since 2006, according to the National Weather Service.

Skagit River flooding causes evacuations, road closures
Quote
What the Northwest River Forecast Center initially forecast Tuesday as minor flooding became major flooding throughout the county on Thanksgiving.  National Weather Service hydrologist Brent Bower said the agency is reviewing its model to figure out why the flooding was higher than anticipated.

It’s possible that rain and snowmelt combined, leading to a larger event.  “Rain on snow is not going to be the cause of a flood, but the snowmelt we get can contribute,” Bower said.

Following heavy rain early in the week, Wednesday brought record warm temperatures that reached 68 degrees in Seattle and Bellingham.  “There was at least a 36-hour period that was warmer than normal, maybe the warmest ever,” Bower said.  That may have melted some low elevation snow. ...
https://www.goskagit.com/news/skagit-river-flooding-causes-evacuations-road-closures/article_dd41574e-24a3-5be7-80c6-d42d275b1c02.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #63 on: December 23, 2017, 05:29:48 PM »
Phillippines:

“Many people were swept to the sea as flood waters quickly rose due to the high tide,” Manuel Luis Ochotorena, a disaster agency official, said. “They never heeded the warnings. They thought it was a weak storm but it dumped more rains.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-storm-philippines/more-than-100-dead-in-philippine-mudslides-flooding-officials-idUSKBN1EH05A
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Paddy

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Re: Floods
« Reply #64 on: December 24, 2017, 12:30:28 AM »
Phillippines:

“Many people were swept to the sea as flood waters quickly rose due to the high tide,” Manuel Luis Ochotorena, a disaster agency official, said. “They never heeded the warnings. They thought it was a weak storm but it dumped more rains.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-storm-philippines/more-than-100-dead-in-philippine-mudslides-flooding-officials-idUSKBN1EH05A

The death toll is now over 180, with 160 more people missing https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/23/dozens-killed-in-philippine-mudslides-and-floods-as-storm-hits

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Re: Floods
« Reply #65 on: January 09, 2018, 04:57:10 PM »
With the first rains following the Thomas fire, 2-5 inches overnight, there are debris flows in Montecito.
Three mansions where swept off their footings , several people were caught in the mud and needed rescue , and a natural gas line broke resulting in a couple houses burned. These are problems to be expected in the aftermath of California wildfires . We need the rain and these issues will repeat until something green sprouts on the hillsides.

https://www.noozhawk.com/article/flash_flood_warnings_issued_for_thomas_whittier_and_alamo_burn_areas

Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #66 on: January 09, 2018, 05:10:11 PM »
"In some spots, fire burned with such extreme intensity that it incinerated all vegetation and 'cooked' the soil underneath.  It's those really high-intensity burn patches, plus those occurring on steep slopes, that will have the greatest potential for debris flows and flash flooding."

AFTER AN EPIC FIRE, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS NOW FACING AN EPIC FLOOD
Mudslides, waterspouts, and flash flooding are expected in already hard-hit areas.
https://psmag.com/environment/southern-california-is-now-facing-an-epic-flood
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Floods
« Reply #67 on: January 09, 2018, 09:01:59 PM »
From the pictures on the local T.V. news Montecito took a very big economic hit last night. The Montecito Inn took several feet of water from a debris flow. For anyone who has been there the Montecito Inn is downtown , right by the 101 freeway. The 101 is just a mess. There were areas where five to six feet of mud flows and debris sweep through residences and businesses.
 The evacuation notices for Montecito weren't as successful as the fire evacuations had been. There have been five fatalities and there may be more.
 There aren't more storms in the immediate forecast, the low is currently sitting directly over S.B. and moving off to the Southeast. Tomorrow will be nice but this is going to take days to clear the debris off the highway and from city streets. I am calling billions$  in damages . This is just the start of the rain season and there is the very real possibility this can happen again over the next month.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEllenShow/status/950807626509574144?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #68 on: January 09, 2018, 09:39:04 PM »
At least 5 dead as heavy rains trigger flooding, mudflows and freeway closures across Southern California
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-rainfall-mudflow-20180109-story.html
Article includes video.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #69 on: January 10, 2018, 04:13:09 AM »
Unbelievable devastation... this is a drive westbound on Olive Mill Rd from Hot Springs in #Montecito. The lake at the end is the 101 [highway]. #Ventura
https://twitter.com/GadiNBC/status/950904876539588608
Video at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #70 on: January 10, 2018, 04:53:36 PM »
Repeated wildfires taught Californians to heed fire evacuation orders. But the acceptance isn’t there yet for floods. 

The county initially ordered 7,000 residents to evacuate and urged another 23,000 to do so voluntarily, but only 10 to 15 percent complied with mandatory orders.

California mudslide death toll up to 15 as rescues continue
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/california-mudslide-death-toll-up-to-15-as-rescues-continue-20180110-00631
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Floods
« Reply #71 on: January 10, 2018, 07:37:18 PM »
I wonder how many of the deaths occurred in evacuation zones.  I read somewhere that the heaviest rains weren't where they were expected.
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Re: Floods
« Reply #72 on: January 10, 2018, 08:09:04 PM »
From the pictures on the local T.V. news Montecito took a very big economic hit last night. The Montecito Inn took several feet of water from a debris flow. For anyone who has been there the Montecito Inn is downtown , right by the 101 freeway. The 101 is just a mess. There were areas where five to six feet of mud flows and debris sweep through residences and businesses.
 The evacuation notices for Montecito weren't as successful as the fire evacuations had been. There have been five fatalities and there may be more.
 There aren't more storms in the immediate forecast, the low is currently sitting directly over S.B. and moving off to the Southeast. Tomorrow will be nice but this is going to take days to clear the debris off the highway and from city streets. I am calling billions$  in damages . This is just the start of the rain season and there is the very real possibility this can happen again over the next month.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheEllenShow/status/950807626509574144?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
For the life of me I can't recall Montecito, but the video's show devastation.
I suppose LA north traffic is now limited to I-5, the most boring drive on the planet.


Until something sets some deep roots we're going to see mud slides every time it rains.


Stay safe
Terry

Bruce Steele

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Re: Floods
« Reply #73 on: January 10, 2018, 08:41:34 PM »
There isn't information on where the mortalities occurred. Voluntary and mandatory evacuations covered the vast majority of the flooded parts of Montecito and the vast majority of residents ignored warnings.
 The rain total was only slightly over two inches in Montecito. We sometimes will get 9 inches in a 24 hour period. The rain that occurred on the hills was totally expected.The problem was there haven't been any rains to get anything green started on the hills.
The fire burned extremely hot and burnt into the soil. Soil doesn't absorb water when it is in this condition.
 These flooding issues will repeat when we get the next slug of rain. The next time the evacuation orders go out they will be complied with. Same thing with warnings about climate change. After we are deep in trouble people will react but probably they won't react in ways adequate to meet the challenge.
Montecito will rebuild. They will rebuild in the same flood corridors that were just washed out. The real estate is just too valuable . Same thing with climate disasters. We will rebuild, the disasters will just repeat. When the money runs out we will get responses commensurate to the threats. Move away from the threats, downsize, grown your own food, become self sufficient. Last thing on the minds of Montecito residents. 

aperson

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Re: Floods
« Reply #74 on: January 10, 2018, 09:09:57 PM »
I can't imagine NWS and EMS whiffed on evac notices for this one. The threat was obvious and well modeled several days out.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Floods
« Reply #75 on: January 10, 2018, 09:45:03 PM »
"Move away from the threats, ... grown your own food, ... "
What, and get my nails dirty?   :D

"Voluntary and mandatory evacuations covered the vast majority of the flooded parts of Montecito"
Thanks for this info.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Floods
« Reply #76 on: January 10, 2018, 10:34:12 PM »
"Move away from the threats, ... grown your own food, ... "
What, and get my nails dirty?   :D

"Voluntary and mandatory evacuations covered the vast majority of the flooded parts of Montecito"
Thanks for this info.
There are 7,000 (?) people in Montecito, mostly very well-off, rich, or humungously rich. Suddenly living the California dream has turned into a nightmare - twice.

Neighbours have lost their lives and mega-dwellings, many have inches or feet of mud and boulders on their manicured lawns (including Oprah). They may have to leave their homes for months or forever.

They have influence in both Democratic and Republican parties. It could make a difference on the environment agenda, or perhaps not.

We will see.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Floods
« Reply #77 on: January 11, 2018, 02:59:45 AM »
I think the single most important point getting little attention is that the hills above Montecito haven't burned in a hundred years. There are parts of the city that were built in flood plains and nobody seemed to realize the risks. Anyone who looks at the rounded boulders that are scattered around town can tell these are stream rounded. The mountains have delivered these boulders for hundreds of thousands of years. We just got the combination of fire and rain that triggers debris flows. This doesn't qualify as climate change, it's just a lack of planning and some tough luck. Stupidity will be when they reissue the building permits to repeat the dumb ass planning that allowed this nonsense in the first place. Clue to planners, bad s... happens when you ignor the obvious.
There are plenty of parallels with other issues like rising CO2 levels. Ignor and repeat until the wheels come off.

Bernard

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Re: Floods
« Reply #78 on: January 11, 2018, 12:10:47 PM »
I looked for geological background and map of the Santa Barbara region. A good overview can be found at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sim3001.
Mentions the seismic risks, of course, and this :
"In addition, numerous Quaternary landslide deposits along the steep southern flank of the Santa Ynez Mountains indicate the potential for continued slope failures and mass movements in developed areas."
The boulders mentioned by Bruce certainly come from those. Very heterogeneous material, easily put into movement.

gerontocrat

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Re: Floods
« Reply #79 on: January 11, 2018, 02:20:42 PM »
I disagree with Bruce Steele that climate change had nothing to do with the mudslides in SoCal.

Yes,the geology is set up for landslips.
Yes, urban planning ignores nature.
And yes, a combination of drought with fires followed by a dump of rain was a fatal combination.

But - climate change has lead to a great lengthening of the wildfire season, i.e. the chances of misadventure have increased.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Floods
« Reply #80 on: January 11, 2018, 03:03:59 PM »
It was just dumb luck that the hills above Montecito hadn't burned in such a long time. Most of the rest of the Santa Ynez mountains have had multiple fires over that time period. I think if you were to look back over the last few thousand years you would see many extended droughts in the Southwestern U.S. Any extended drought is going to increase the risk of wildfires and even drought years can produce 2-4 inch rain events. So the debris flows could have been triggered by the same conditions that caused this event had the hills burned fifty years ago rather than last month. Ventura and Santa Barbara counties are 7 or 8 years into a drought that could extend much futher. Yes the extra heat of global warming contributes to faster desiccation of plant life and yes December fires seem anomalous but a Sept. fire and zero rains until January would result in the same preconditions that resulted in the debris flows.
 The fact that people ignored the risks is what caused the lost of life, the property damage was inevitable due to bad planning. Here is a link to warnings that went out before the minor rain event.
Maps on the link clearly show the creeks that carried the debris flows.

  https://www.edhat.com/news/map-released-of-flood-and-debris-flow-areas


Daniel B.

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Re: Floods
« Reply #81 on: January 11, 2018, 04:30:30 PM »
I tend to agree with Bruce Steele.  Poor urban planning appears to have been a bigger influence on the mudslides.  Additionally, a lack of fire, not lengthened fire season has been a bigger factor.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #82 on: January 13, 2018, 07:36:22 PM »
“Slider” comparison photos; maps.

Before and after the mudslides in Montecito, California
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/montecito-before-after/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #83 on: January 15, 2018, 01:03:19 AM »
Mud, darkness and destruction turned Montecito into death trap
Quote
The realization that houses might simply vanish didn’t start to set in until a 30-foot tree trunk barreled by.

Trina Grokenberger stared out the upstairs window of her white Colonial house Tuesday morning, as a river raged through her front yard.

It was 3:58 a.m.

“Dave!” she called to her husband. “We can’t leave now, right? That’s all trees coming down the driveway.”

Their white Land Rover was parked below, with the suitcase they had packed.

They knew they were in a voluntary evacuation zone and that officials had warned of possible flooding and debris flows. In December they left for five days under a mandatory evacuation during the Thomas fire. Now the word “voluntary” had given them a false sense of comfort.
...
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-montecito-mudslides-20180114-story.html
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oren

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Re: Floods
« Reply #84 on: January 15, 2018, 08:54:55 AM »
Horrifying.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #85 on: January 27, 2018, 06:08:13 PM »
 Happening now.

Paris is on high alert as the River Seine continued to surge even higher after non-stop rain in the French capital
Quote
The Seine is expected to hit a peak of six metres over the weekend with riverside households and businesses readying themselves should the river fully burst its banks.

Continuous, heavy rainfall in the city has led the Seine and Marne rivers to rise and approach record level, while rats are being flushed out of sewers in many parts of the capital.

Videos posted online have shown giant rodents scampering through the streets and climbing into rubbish bins and one French photographer captured a group of rats scurrying around outside Notre Dame cathedral. ...
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/paris-floods-french-capital-remains-on-alert-as-river-seine-surges-even-higher-a3751171.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #86 on: January 28, 2018, 04:16:30 PM »
Paris floods as the river Seine overflows and engulfs riverside walkways
Quote
Ms Hidalgo said waters were expected to peak in the city on Saturday (local time), adding the flood was less significant than that in 2016, which was described as some of the worst flooding in a century.

"Currently we are at 5.71 metres and we should peak between 5.8 and 6 metres maximum," she said.

"The water levels in 2016 reached 6.10 metres, so a little less considerable but nevertheless very impacting, particularly for economic activities linked to the river."

Ms Hidalgo said the situation was being monitored and would continue to worry about the situation into next week as more rainfall is expected.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-28/heavy-rain-causes-floods-in-paris/9368320
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Alexander555

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Alexander555

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Alexander555

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Alexander555

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Re: Floods
« Reply #90 on: February 21, 2018, 06:03:33 PM »
And plenty more to come. And this is going to get much worse in the next years.

https://watchers.news/2018/02/21/widespread-flooding-hits-us-south-and-midwest-excessive-rain-continues/

sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #91 on: February 21, 2018, 08:51:31 PM »
Ohio river flooding Cinci (and other places) again.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2018/02/20/24-floodgates-protect-cincinnati-and-northern-kentucky-these-5-currently-closed/356089002/


Lots of snow melted recently in that watershed.

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #92 on: February 24, 2018, 04:34:46 PM »
Queensland weather: Heavy rain eases across south-east, disaster package announced
Quote
Some drenched Brisbane suburbs exceeded the average monthly rainfall for February in just 24 hours, BOM forecaster David Crock said.

"The average in February is just shy of 160mm so some suburbs have gotten very close to their average in a day and Brisbane after today will have well over the monthly average in terms of rainfall," he said.

Many areas of the Gold Coast recorded heavy downpours, with Lower Springbrook recording 204mm since 9:00am yesterday, 164mm falling at the Gold Coast seaway and 156mm at Molendinar.
...
In the Gold Coast hinterland, Little Nerang Dam — which recorded falls of 181mm — was spilling water on Saturday morning, prompting Seqwater to warn about hazards downstream.
...
A state and federal government disaster package will be set up for central Queensland communities pounded by storms earlier this week, with the damage bill potentially reaching $1 million. ...
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-24/qld-weather-more-rain-on-the-way/9480108
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sidd

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Re: Floods
« Reply #93 on: March 05, 2018, 07:03:05 AM »
Wing et al. have a paper analysing flood risk in the US lower 48. Apparently 41 million are at risk rather than 13 million in current FEMA estimates.

"Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6–3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps)."

"The analysis shows that 40.8 million people (13.3% of the population) are currently exposed to a 1 in 100 year (1% annual exceedance probability) fluvial or pluvial flood in the CONUS, which translates to a GDP exposure of $2.9 trillion (15.3% of total GDP)."

"This analysis indicates that previous estimates capture roughly one-third of the exposure identified in our 1 in 100 year floodplain."

doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaac65

Open access. Read all about it.

sidd


Shared Humanity

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Re: Floods
« Reply #94 on: March 05, 2018, 09:39:16 PM »
1 in 100 year flood plain!!!

Hell. Houston has been hit with three 500 year flood events in the past 3 years!

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Floods
« Reply #95 on: March 06, 2018, 12:56:29 AM »
Isn't everything bigger in Texas? :o ::) :P ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #96 on: March 08, 2018, 08:47:44 PM »
Four-minute video on the flood risk paper at the link.  The total amount at risk in 100-year floodplains is equal to 1/3 of U.S. GDP.

Quote
28 million Americans live in flood zones and don't know it, study finds
About 41 million Americans, roughly a tenth of the U.S. population, live in a 100-year floodplain, which is three times hire than the government estimates, a new study finds. The authors explain why the government maps are inadequate and how billions of dollars in property are at risk.

One big problem is that FEMA maps tend to ignore smaller streams running through populated areas, Wing said.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/28-million-Americans-live-in-flood-zones-and-12732279.php
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #97 on: March 08, 2018, 10:10:08 PM »
“Quietly: The Mississippi River is currently at one of the highest levels in history.
A huge diversion dam just opened in Louisiana today to take pressure of New Orleans levees.”
   https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/971827037148246017

Video: Bonnet Carre Spillway opens to ease flooding concerns along Mississippi River
Quote
For the fourth time since 2008, federal officials are opening the Bonnet Carre Spillway, sending cold, fresh Mississippi River water tumbling into the normally brackish Lake Pontchartrain.

This year's opening is starting small — beginning at 10 a.m. Thursday — with only eight of the spillway's 350 gates likely to be opened. More will follow as the volume of water flowing down the river increases over the next few days.

The release of water into the lake reduces pressure on the river levees in the New Orleans area.

The freshwater plume flowing into the lake will slowly push out the brackish water that normally is found in the estuary, according to John Lopez, of the Lake Pontchartrain Basin Foundation.

"After about two weeks, the whole lake will be river water," he said of the plumes, which are often visible in satellite photos. The water will bring with it some freshwater fish species, including freshwater catfish, he added.

One unwanted species that has not set up residence in the lake during past openings is invasive carp, and Lopez is hopeful that that will stay true in 2018.

"I am sure there will be some carp coming through the structure itself," he said. But as the lake's brackish water returns, it likely will make conditions hostile to carp survival, he said. One worry, though, is that the carp may settle in the freshwater bayous and rivers that flow into Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, he said. ...
http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/news/environment/article_fd800716-224e-11e8-8de5-cf14694699c4.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Floods
« Reply #98 on: March 10, 2018, 08:51:25 PM »
Forget flood maps.  If you live anywhere in Florida, you need flood insurance, says Roy Wright, who oversees the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program,

America’s flood insurance chief has a message for all Floridians: You’re at risk
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article203631769.html
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Floods
« Reply #99 on: March 11, 2018, 12:44:41 AM »
Forget flood insurance.  If you live anywhere in Florida, you need to move. ;) ;)