The Russiagate conspiracy theory

[Alexander555]

To where do you think the money trail will go ? After 8 years in power and 10 000 billion of money printing.

[TerryM]

I think that this two-day old story deserves to be mentioned again, as if it bares fruit, it could put a lot of Republicans in jail:

Title: "Mueller Probing Whether Trump Digital Team Aided Russian Disinformation Campaign"

http://amp.nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/mueller-probing-whether-trump-team-aided-russian-trolls.html

Extract: "Mueller’s team is trying to determine if members of the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee, who worked together on the digital arm of Trump’s campaign, provided assistance to Russian trolls attempting to influence voters. It’s the latest scare for Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, who managed the digital campaign and has already come under scrutiny by the special counsel for his foreign contacts."

Thanks, ASLR.

Another quote: "Experts don’t think the trolls behind Russian Facebook accounts could have determined who to target on their own, but the question is whether the help they got came from Trump’s orbit. The leading suspects at this point are Kushner and Brad Parscale, the head of Cambridge Analytica, " 

Might be possible to follow a money trail here, from the alt-right to the Russian trolls. As before, I doubt the Kremlin was involved in this. Time might tell.

Cambridge Analytica, if it can do one half of what it says it can, is the greatest threat to democracy since the Althing began in Iceland.
Terry

[pileus]

Case for collusion with foreign entities to subvert the 2016 election getting tighter and stronger.  Kremlin, Wikileaks, Team Trump, RNC/Cambridge.

But the GOP is not going to move on any charges that Mueller delivers. 

[TerryM]

Aha, or Alass


Sorrowful George is indeed the then 28 year old who drank (to much?) wine with a serial degree-mill conman, "Professor" Mifsud. Beguiled by a Russian temptress who was pretending to be Putin's niece, George tried to set up a meeting between a Trump campaign official, except they weren't interested, and Putin's people, except Putin's "niece" didn't know Putin's people.


The "Professor" told George that the Russians had dirt on Hillary, information that had been reported widely prior to their meeting, and George became a true believer. He kept trying to interest the Trump campaign in his great discovery and finally was told that he could go, unofficially of course, to Moscow, as long as he paid his own expenses.


Some time later, at another British pub, he spoke freely to a person who turned out to be the very conservative Australian Ambassador to Britain. George mentioned that he'd heard that Russia had dirt on Hillary & some months later the Ambassador mentioned this to an Australian spook who reported it to his American counterpart.


Somehow even a demented Trump paying hookers to pee on a bed that Obama might have slept in holds more water (intended), than the new raison d'etre for Mueller's Investigation. After 7 months of investigating Mueller appears to be clutching at new straws as the old ones are found wanting of substance.


I'd happily provide loads of urls, but must confess to just plugging their names into Google and following the paths. This had all been examined back when Papadopoulos was first indicted.
Terry

[AbruptSLR]

NYT reporting today that it was in fact NOT the dossier that led the FBI to open the Russia investigation WRT the Trump campaign.  Big news.

Here is a BBC linked to the same story:

Title: "Trump's Russia inquiry 'started by Australian tip-off'"

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42525880

Extract: "The investigation into possible connections between Russia and Donald Trump's presidential campaign began after a tip-off from Australia, the New York Times reports.

Trump adviser George Papadopoulos allegedly told Australia's top UK diplomat that Moscow had incriminating "dirt" on Hillary Clinton.

The newspaper alleges the revelation came "during a night of heavy drinking" in London in May 2016.

Australia later informed the FBI.

The New York Times report claims that the exchange was the spark for establishing a secret investigation into possible connections between Russia and the Trump campaign in July 2016."

[SteveMDFP]

The "Professor" told George that the Russians had dirt on Hillary, information that had been reported widely prior to their meeting, and George became a true believer. He kept trying to interest the Trump campaign in his great discovery and finally was told that he could go, unofficially of course, to Moscow, as long as he paid his own expenses.

 
Terry

No, not quite right.  From the NYT article:

In late April, at a London hotel, Mr. Mifsud told Mr. Papadopoulos that he had just learned from high-level Russian officials in Moscow that the Russians had “dirt” on Mrs. Clinton in the form of “thousands of emails,” according to court documents. Although Russian hackers had been mining data from the Democratic National Committee’s computers for months, that information was not yet public. Even the committee itself did not know.

Papadopoulos, some weeks later blabs this to an Austrialian diplomat, who later passes it on to US security contacts.

US security contacts thus know that the Russians had such emails, and that a Trump campaign official knew this in advance of their release.  The FBI could only reasonably conclude that the Kremlin may well have been dangling this bait in front of the Trump campaign, with uncertain end motive.

The FBI doesn't just have duties around criminal investigations.  They also have a counter-intelligence mission.  If they have reason to think the Kremlin has dangled the prospect of Clinton emails in front of the Trump campaign, they had an absolute obligation to investigate.

It doesn't matter how important Papadopoulos was to the campaign.  It doesn't matter that aspired meetings didn't happen.  In terms of the justification for starting a counter-intelligence investigation, it doesn't even matter whether Papadopoulos reported the information to the rest of the Trump campaign.  The FBI had strong reason to conclude the Kremlin was dangling bait in front of the Trump campaign.  That alone was sufficient justification to start investigating.

[Susan Anderson]

Interesting, though ridiculously overoptimistic, scenario I found in a comment yesterday:

Both Trump and Pence shown to be in collusion, Democrats win in November (quite likely, despite the naysayers and infighting and wishy washy party), pursue impeachment, then install the next in line, the Speaker of the House, as president. You may "hate" Nancy Pelosi, but she would be a vast improvement on what we have.

It's a fantasy, I know, but it does seem increasingly clear that collusion and obstruction of justice have occurred on a fairly obvious and massive scale. Pence is complicit and has lied regularly (he's worse than Trump in many ways, being a complete tool of the Kochtopus).

Republicans will not pursue this, but Democrats are going to win big in November.

[Rob Dekker]

Shall we get back on topic?  A Russian hacker in detention says he was instructed to hack into the DNC servers by Putin's FSB, and says he can prove it:

The alleged hacker posted to his Facebook page in December a transcript and an audio recording of his confession during a pre-trial court hearing. He also confessed online to having hacked investigators looking into the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, brought down in July 2014 by a missile near the disputed Ukrainian border with Russia.
. . .
Kozlovsky said he feared his minders might turn on him and planted a “poison pill” during the DNC hack. He placed a string of numbers that are his Russian passport number and the number of his visa to visit the Caribbean island of St. Martin in a hidden .dat file, which is a generic data file.
[/size]

Comments?

I looked into this hacker (Konstantin Kozlovsky) a bit more and found this article on him :

https://www.thedailybeast.com/should-we-believe-a-russian-hacker-who-claims-he-did-the-dnc-for-a-rogue-operative-in-the-fsb

He is currently in a Moscow jail (apparently in the VIP section).
It is possible that his passport number is in a .dat file on the DNC servers. Should be easy to check.
If it is there, is could mean that he was indeed the DNC hacker. Or somebody else planted it.
If no such .dat file exists, this guy is talking BS.

But either way, knowing that this guy is in a Russian prison means that we need to be very cautious with conclusions.

Here is an argument from the Daily Beast that makes sense to me :

Kozlovsky claimed in his TV Rain letter that he worked mainly from home and had few contacts outside his focused work hacking and planting malware in various target accounts. But he said he answered to Dokuchayev in the FSB, with whom he had a longstanding relationship, and Dokuchayev is the one who gave him the order to hack the DNC.

If so, that develops a narrative in which Dokuchayev, arrested on charges of spying for the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, actually ordered the hacks on the U.S. Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton. Such a twist would bolster Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position that, contrary to the assessment of the key U.S. intelligence agencies, he had nothing to do with the order to hack the American elections.
...
Dokuchayev recently denied that he had ever ordered Kozlovsky and Lurk to hack the DNC.

So the whole thing may be a set-up by the FSB to blame the DNC hack on a "CIA spy".

As the last comment in the Daily Beast story explains :

Most Russian experts agreed that Kozlovsky must be terrified by the accusation and potential sentence. Under such circumstances he might say or do anything, especially if he thought it might pave the way to freedom.

[edit] If we learned anything from the MH17 saga, it is that Russia creates many layers of conspiracy around the truth. This (DNC hack) may be another example of this. Also, the very fact that they do so is an indication that Russia WAS in fact involved in the DNC hack.

[Alexander555]

http://investmentwatchblog.com/legal-complaint-filed-against-hillary-for-84-million-money-laundering-scam/

[Alexander555]

Basically we can say that the democrat support comes from overpayed state employees, immigrants, and a money printing financial elite. That sounds like your right to speak on the global stage will be over soon. Divided and corrupted in every possible way. Overloaded with debt at every level.

[wili]

Susan said: "Democrats are going to win big in November"

Only if we work furiously to make it happen.

Let's not get complacent like some did before the last election because the polls looked favorable.

[TerryM]

Susan said: "Democrats are going to win big in November"

Only if we work furiously to make it happen.

Let's not get complacent like some did before the last election because the polls looked favorable.

Ramen!
Terry

[TerryM]

Interesting, though ridiculously overoptimistic, scenario I found in a comment yesterday:

Both Trump and Pence shown to be in collusion, Democrats win in November (quite likely, despite the naysayers and infighting and wishy washy party), pursue impeachment, then install the next in line, the Speaker of the House, as president. You may "hate" Nancy Pelosi, but she would be a vast improvement on what we have.

It's a fantasy, I know, but it does seem increasingly clear that collusion and obstruction of justice have occurred on a fairly obvious and massive scale. Pence is complicit and has lied regularly (he's worse than Trump in many ways, being a complete tool of the Kochtopus).

Republicans will not pursue this, but Democrats are going to win big in November.

Have a great 2018 Susan


I don't think anyone here prefers the present regime to one headed by Pelosi. My own feeling is that we could, and should, do so much better.
I do doubt that a Republican Senate would turn on Pence, and I can't see how we will win the Senate in 2018, unfortunately.


Terry

[TerryM]

The "Professor" told George that the Russians had dirt on Hillary, information that had been reported widely prior to their meeting, and George became a true believer. He kept trying to interest the Trump campaign in his great discovery and finally was told that he could go, unofficially of course, to Moscow, as long as he paid his own expenses.

 
Terry

No, not quite right.  From the NYT article:

In late April, at a London hotel, Mr. Mifsud told Mr. Papadopoulos that he had just learned from high-level Russian officials in Moscow that the Russians had “dirt” on Mrs. Clinton in the form of “thousands of emails,” according to court documents. Although Russian hackers had been mining data from the Democratic National Committee’s computers for months, that information was not yet public. Even the committee itself did not know.

Papadopoulos, some weeks later blabs this to an Austrialian diplomat, who later passes it on to US security contacts.

US security contacts thus know that the Russians had such emails, and that a Trump campaign official knew this in advance of their release.  The FBI could only reasonably conclude that the Kremlin may well have been dangling this bait in front of the Trump campaign, with uncertain end motive.

The FBI doesn't just have duties around criminal investigations.  They also have a counter-intelligence mission.  If they have reason to think the Kremlin has dangled the prospect of Clinton emails in front of the Trump campaign, they had an absolute obligation to investigate.

It doesn't matter how important Papadopoulos was to the campaign.  It doesn't matter that aspired meetings didn't happen.  In terms of the justification for starting a counter-intelligence investigation, it doesn't even matter whether Papadopoulos reported the information to the rest of the Trump campaign.  The FBI had strong reason to conclude the Kremlin was dangling bait in front of the Trump campaign.  That alone was sufficient justification to start investigating.

Recall that the DNC leak wasn't the only dirt that the Kremlin was feared to have on Hillary. Her unsecured email problems date back at least to 2008, and Guccifer, as opposed to Guccifer2, was already making his debut in an American courtroom that very April.


Hillary's email problems, according to Wikipedia received " the most extensive coverage of any topic" during the election cycle.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton_email_controversy

Terry

[TerryM]

Steve
A modicum of additional searching reveals a Forbes headline asking


What If Vladimir Putin Has Hillary Clinton's Emails? - Forbes


In Feb. 2016 followed by


Does The Kremlin Have Hillary Clinton's Emails? – TheBlaze


in March of that year.


Postulating that Moscow held emails damaging to Hillary certainly wasn't something that "The Professor" came up with out of the blue.
This wasn't something that "the committee" wouldn't have been aware of in that time frame.


There are many other publications that fit the bill, I simply posted the first two that Google served up. 


Terry[/font][/size]

[Susan Anderson]

Interesting, though ridiculously overoptimistic, scenario I found in a comment yesterday: ....

It's a fantasy, I know, but it does seem increasingly clear that collusion and obstruction of justice have occurred on a fairly obvious and massive scale. Pence is complicit and has lied regularly (he's worse than Trump in many ways, being a complete tool of the Kochtopus).

Have a great 2018 Susan
... My own feeling is that we could, and should, do so much better.
I do doubt that a Republican Senate would turn on Pence, and I can't see how we will win the Senate in 2018, unfortunately.

Terry

Thanks Terry, I agree on all points. Going seriously off the rails and OT (this bit belongs on a different discussion), here's another wild surmise. It should at the least be good for a lark!

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson Gets Another Presidential Endorsement
https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2017/05/dwayne-johnson-gets-presidential-endorsement-from-michael-moore

We do need somebody younger with some charisma, and Kirsten Gillibrand has fouled her nest with the attack on Franken, which has stirred up a lot of rage even among women. The war of the sexes is complicated.

update: sorry, guys, I did a little more looking and this is not a good idea. I'll leave it up for the humor and the frustration at the lack of younger progressive energy & charisma in the Dems.

[SteveMDFP]

Steve
A modicum of additional searching reveals a Forbes headline asking


What If Vladimir Putin Has Hillary Clinton's Emails? - Forbes


In Feb. 2016 followed by


Does The Kremlin Have Hillary Clinton's Emails? – TheBlaze


in March of that year.


Postulating that Moscow held emails damaging to Hillary certainly wasn't something that "The Professor" came up with out of the blue.
This wasn't something that "the committee" wouldn't have been aware of in that time frame.


There are many other publications that fit the bill, I simply posted the first two that Google served up. 


Terry[/font][/size]

Let's not confuse Hillary's own server emails with the DNC (and separate Podesta) emails.  Nobody's released emails from her server, and I doubt it was hacked.  Our FBI carefully studied the home server, and I believe found no evidence it had been hacked.

On the other hand, if a Trump campaign official blabs that the Russians have thousands if Clinton emails, that he learned it from someone with actual ties to the Kremlin, AND in that same time-frame the FBI learns the DNC emails had been hacked (and learned this before any were released) then the FBI concludes that the Kremlin was, in fact, dangling juicy bait in front of the Trump campaign.  Again, careful investigation is then mandatory for the FBI to pursue.

[Susan Anderson]

Thanks @SteveMDFP. Good clarification. I think we all need to let time pass and enjoy the celebrations for the New Year. (Unfortunately, it's between minus 12 and 18 C here in Boston today, not comfortable.)

[AbruptSLR]

Hopefully, Mueller is monitoring the cited investigation by the Commercial Bank of Dubai into potential money laundering by Ivanka's old jewelry business:

Title: "Ivanka Trump's Old Jewelry Business Is Now Caught Up in an Alleged Fraud Scheme"

https://www.gq.com/story/ivanka-trump-jewelry-business

Extract: "Thanks to an overlooked filing made in federal court this past summer, we can now add a jewelry business to the list of Trump family enterprises that allegedly served as vehicles to fraudulently hide the assets of ultra-rich foreigners with checkered backgrounds. In late June, the Commercial Bank of Dubai sought—and later received—permission to subpoena Ivanka Trump’s now-defunct fine jewelry line, claiming its diamonds were used in a massive scheme to hide roughly $100 million that was owed to the bank, according to filings at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

High-end real estate is a common vehicle for money laundering, in part because, until recently, the industry was effectively exempt from many of the laws that prevent laundering through other types of assets, such as the “Know Your Customer” laws that apply to banking. But diamonds, too, hold an important place in the money launderer’s toolkit. Mountains of dirty money can be converted into tiny diamonds, which are easy to store or smuggle across national boundaries, and convert back into cash when the opportunity arises."

[Alexander555]

Hopefully, Mueller is monitoring the cited investigation by the Commercial Bank of Dubai into potential money laundering by Ivanka's old jewelry business:

Title: "Ivanka Trump's Old Jewelry Business Is Now Caught Up in an Alleged Fraud Scheme"

https://www.gq.com/story/ivanka-trump-jewelry-business

Extract: "Thanks to an overlooked filing made in federal court this past summer, we can now add a jewelry business to the list of Trump family enterprises that allegedly served as vehicles to fraudulently hide the assets of ultra-rich foreigners with checkered backgrounds. In late June, the Commercial Bank of Dubai sought—and later received—permission to subpoena Ivanka Trump’s now-defunct fine jewelry line, claiming its diamonds were used in a massive scheme to hide roughly $100 million that was owed to the bank, according to filings at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

High-end real estate is a common vehicle for money laundering, in part because, until recently, the industry was effectively exempt from many of the laws that prevent laundering through other types of assets, such as the “Know Your Customer” laws that apply to banking. But diamonds, too, hold an important place in the money launderer’s toolkit. Mountains of dirty money can be converted into tiny diamonds, which are easy to store or smuggle across national boundaries, and convert back into cash when the opportunity arises."

That would be a good thing, to drain the entire swamp. But lets ask ourself a simple question first, if she would have been involved in money laundering. Do you think she would have tought that it would not come to the surface as the first lady ? To be honestly, if it realy would have been money laundering they would not have started with becomming the president and the first lady in the first place. So probably they are the most clean politicians you have. But below that level of president and first lady, there you probably have some dirt. And it's because of the democrats that all that dirt will come to te surface.

[TerryM]

Steve
Whether Hillary's computer(s) were hacked or not is moot.
My point is that Forbs, The Blaze, and others were writing about Hillary's damaging files being in Kremlin hands prior to George's meeting with "The Professor".
If "The Professor" did fill George's head with tales of Russian perfidy, one wonders whether said "Professor" hadn't read this in the morning paper. The Professor has denied that such a conversation ever took place, but given the memory lapses that sometimes accompany drinking bouts, it's unclear just how clear either's recollection would have been.
One of the Universities that the good Professor was associated with also apparently employed Papadopoulos at one time. Researchers found that the school consisted of zero students & 4 "administrators" in an "unadorned back room"


George's revelations to the Australian weren't new, groundbreaking revelations, but rather sound similar to a drunk trying to impress someone at the bar by spouting off about the headlines he'd recently read. George seemingly has a penchant for painting himself as an important insider. The energy company he claimed to consult for had 2 employees, while his stint with the Hoover Institute was as an unsalaried stringer. 


I would be interested in learning what he was paid while working for the Trump Campaign. They say he brought coffee, he says he was a mover and shaker. His pay grade may give some indication of his standing in the organization, but neither he nor Trump have divulged the figures.


Terry

[SteveMDFP]

That would be a good thing, to drain the entire swamp. But lets ask ourself a simple question first, if she would have been involved in money laundering. Do you think she would have tought that it would not come to the surface as the first lady ? To be honestly, if it realy would have been money laundering they would not have started with becomming the president and the first lady in the first place. So probably they are the most clean politicians you have. But below that level of president and first lady, there you probably have some dirt. And it's because of the democrats that all that dirt will come to te surface.

Well Ivanka is Trumps daughter.  And the line was launched October 12, 2011.  At that time nobody ever expected Donald to become President, ever.  And this was just one of multiple sleazy business they ran, Trump U, Trump Steaks, and more.  These sleazy operations have been shut down, because the Trumps have another gig, at the trough of the US taxpayer.  Just part of the pattern.

If Donald could have engaged in money laundering by shipping steaks around, I have no doubt he would have.  But diamonds work so much better for that.  No, the First Family is no paragon of virtue.  Donald is among the least ethical persons I know of on the planet.

[SteveMDFP]

. . .
One of the Universities that the good Professor was associated with also apparently employed Papadopoulos at one time. Researchers found that the school consisted of zero students & 4 "administrators" in an "unadorned back room"


George's revelations to the Australian weren't new, groundbreaking revelations, but rather sound similar to a drunk trying to impress someone at the bar by spouting off about the headlines he'd recently read. George seemingly has a penchant for painting himself as an important insider. The energy company he claimed to consult for had 2 employees, while his stint with the Hoover Institute was as an unsalaried stringer. 


I would be interested in learning what he was paid while working for the Trump Campaign. They say he brought coffee, he says he was a mover and shaker. His pay grade may give some indication of his standing in the organization, but neither he nor Trump have divulged the figures.


Terry

The question we've been addressing is whether the FBI really thought they had a need to investigate potential influence by the Kremlin on the Trump campaign.  As I laid it out above, they certainly did.  Regardless of rumors that the Kremlin had emails from Hillary's servers, the FBI knew before the public that the DNC had actually been hacked.  The Professor being a sleazeball doesn't preclude his being a tool of the FSB at all.  I'm sure the FSB and CIA utilize armies of sleazeballs.  I'm sure they have some idea of who each other's sleazeballs are.

As for the pay of the campaign officials, I've heard that almost nobody was paid, they were all volunteers.  In retrospect, I think this may have been planned as a way to disavow the campaign from any embarrassment from any member of the campaign.  "Look, he was just a volunteer."  Or this arrangement may just have been because Donald doesn't like to pay anyone, owed or not.

[Alexander555]

That would be a good thing, to drain the entire swamp. But lets ask ourself a simple question first, if she would have been involved in money laundering. Do you think she would have tought that it would not come to the surface as the first lady ? To be honestly, if it realy would have been money laundering they would not have started with becomming the president and the first lady in the first place. So probably they are the most clean politicians you have. But below that level of president and first lady, there you probably have some dirt. And it's because of the democrats that all that dirt will come to te surface.

Well Ivanka is Trumps daughter.  And the line was launched October 12, 2011.  At that time nobody ever expected Donald to become President, ever.  And this was just one of multiple sleazy business they ran, Trump U, Trump Steaks, and more.  These sleazy operations have been shut down, because the Trumps have another gig, at the trough of the US taxpayer.  Just part of the pattern.

If Donald could have engaged in money laundering by shipping steaks around, I have no doubt he would have.  But diamonds work so much better for that.  No, the First Family is no paragon of virtue.  Donald is among the least ethical persons I know of on the planet.

Do you know him ?

[TerryM]

The campaigns I've worked on were all primarily staffed by volunteers. These were however low level affairs, not for the Presidency or the PM.
George was paid for his time working for Carson, apparently ~$10K for 2+ months work. Whether his move to Trump's campaign was a step up or down we don't know.


I don't see "The Prof" primarily as a sleeze, more as an opportunistic con man. Whether he saw George as a fellow "player", or as a "mark" might explain something about their relationship.


AFAIK neither of George's confidents actually had access to the Kremlin, and George had very little influence in the Trump Campaign. Both sides were blowing a lot of smoke as they tried to convince each other just how well they were connected.
If this is so, the FBI, or CIA, would certainly be aware of their status shortly after they appeared on the radar.


Is it your understanding that the "Professor" and the "Niece" actually were Kremlin operators who made up these crazy personas and claimed to have Kremlin connections so that no one would suspect that they actually were from the Kremlin? That path has a huge number of twists and hairpin turns, although I suppose that anything is possible. A DEA agent posing as a DEA agent so that the drug runners won't suspect him of being a DEA agent is a difficult plot to follow.


Otherwise George colluded with no one capable of collusion.


Likewise if the Prof and the Niece were evil Russian spies and only colluded with someone with no influence over Trump's campaign, where is the law broken, or the damage done.


In this case our spies colluded with someone without the ability to reciprocate.


Mueller needs to establish that either the Professor or the Niece are Russian operatives, and, that George had considerable influence with the Trump Campaign, and that he was operating under their control and on their behalf.
That's a tough bar to pass.
Terry

[SteveMDFP]

. . .
Is it your understanding that the "Professor" and the "Niece" actually were Kremlin operators who made up these crazy personas and claimed to have Kremlin connections so that no one would suspect that they actually were from the Kremlin? That path has a huge number of twists and hairpin turns, although I suppose that anything is possible. A DEA agent posing as a DEA agent so that the drug runners won't suspect him of being a DEA agent is a difficult plot to follow.

Otherwise George colluded with no one capable of collusion.

Likewise if the Prof and the Niece were evil Russian spies and only colluded with someone with no influence over Trump's campaign, where is the law broken, or the damage done.

In this case our spies colluded with someone without the ability to reciprocate.

Mueller needs to establish that either the Professor or the Niece are Russian operatives, and, that George had considerable influence with the Trump Campaign, and that he was operating under their control and on their behalf.
That's a tough bar to pass.
Terry

Fair questions.  I believe the NYT described a definite connection between Putin and the Prof.

But even if he turned out to be a total fake with no connections, the story presented still explains why the FBI felt an investigation was needed.  Just as they found out about the DNC hack, before the public did, they're told by Australian intelligence that a Trump campaign operative was made aware of the Kremlin's posession of emails, before the FBI knew. 

As for "Prof" Mifsud, let's go back to the NYT piece:
 

Mr. Papadopoulos met Joseph Mifsud, a Maltese professor at a now-defunct London academy who had valuable contacts with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Mr. Mifsud showed little interest in Mr. Papadopoulos at first.

But when he found out he was a Trump campaign adviser, he latched onto him, according to court records and emails obtained by The New York Times. . . .

More important, Mr. Mifsud connected Mr. Papadopoulos to Ivan Timofeev, a program director for the prestigious Valdai Discussion Club, a gathering of academics that meets annually with Mr. Putin. The two men corresponded for months about how to connect the Russian government and the campaign. Records suggest that Mr. Timofeev, who has been described by Mr. Mueller’s team as an intermediary for the Russian Foreign Ministry, discussed the matter with the ministry’s former leader, Igor S. Ivanov, who is widely viewed in the United States as one of Russia’s elder statesmen.

So Popodoupolos did, in fact, have relevant Russian contacts.

Now, "collusion."  This isn't a legal term.  The relevant legal term is "conspiracy."  Conspiracy is not an intuitively obvious crime on its own.  To be guilty of conspiracy, no other underlying crime has to occur.  If two people plan on and agree to commit a crime, they're guilty of conspiracy to commit that crime, whether the agreed-upon crime happens or not.  And the legal penalty is the same as if the crime had happened.

This legal reality may not be justice, but it's legal reality. 

So it's sufficient that two or more members of Trump's team agreed to seek assistance from foreign nationals.  They're still guilty of conspiracy to violate campaign laws, even if they were being conned.  There doesn't have to be any actual "opposition research" for them to obtain.  They just have to believe they're going to obtain it.

We have solid evidence of this *already*, with Don Jr's e-mail discussing the infamous meeting at Trump tower with the Russian lawyer.  The publicly-available evidence probably needs Flynn's personal testimony to nail this down "beyond a reasonable doubt." 

Godspeed to Mr. Mueller.  If he doesn't soon present the evidence sufficient to get a 2/3 vote in the Senate to remove Trump, the Korean peninsula may soon be radioactive.  That's how I see it.

[TerryM]

Steve


Hate to pull out with so much going on, but I'll be off line for close to a day.
NYE, & all of that,


Have Funn
Terry

[AbruptSLR]

It seems like Sally Yates believes that some of Trump's tweets amount to witness tampering:

[Hefaistos]

The plot thickens around the DNC hack. Was it all made up by cyber-security firm CrowdStrike, who created a fake perpetrator/hacker, made that fake created hacker easy to detect and point to, and then faked “discovering” the fake hacker and hacking?

"Over the course of the last year, the ‘Russian hacking’ narrative has steadily deteriorated into accusations of nebulous Russian “collusion,” before morphing into claims of nefarious ‘Russian trolling.’ During this time, establishment interests have overtly attempted to use accusations of Russian interference to deflect from the DNC email’s revelation that the Democratic Party was caught red-handed in the destruction of the American democratic process.
...
A recent report by Adam Carter, published with Disobedient Media, fueled controversy surrounding Crowdstrike’s veracity in connection to the DNC servers. Carter’s astute report suggested the possibility that the company had planted malware on DNC servers. He wrote: ” The fact that two out of three of the Fancy Bear malware samples identified were compiled on dates within the apparent five day period CrowdStrike were apparently at the DNC seems incredibly unlikely to have occurred by mere chance. That all three malware samples were compiled within ten days either side of their visit – makes it clear just how questionable the Fancy Bear malware discoveries were.”

Carter’s analysis lends additional credence to the interpretation that Crowdstrike had acted in an attempt to fabricate evidence of Russian hacking. Carter has previously pointed out the many instances of inconsistencies surrounding Crowdstrike, stating his belief that higher-ups at Crowdstrike may have gone so far as to participate in the creation of the Guccifer 2.0 persona.
...
...under Eric Schmidt’s leadership, Alphabet financed the cyber-security firm Crowdstrike with over $100 million through the Alphabet subsidiary, CapitalG. That Google’s parent company would finance the same entity whose allegations form the singular basis for claims that Russians hacked the DNC is particularly troubling given Schmidt’s intense involvement in Clinton’s campaign.
...
... the Russian hacking narrative as characterized by Crowdstrike and often attributed to Guccifer2.0 acting as a ‘Russian hacker’ was deeply flawed if not an outright fabrication. During 2017, many have concluded that Crowdstrike, who had access to DNC servers, may have copied the data later published by the Guccifer 2.0 persona as part of efforts to preemptively discredit Wikileaks’ publication of the DNC emails."

https://disobedientmedia.com/2018/01/a-year-in-review-democracy-betrayed-by-democrats-not-russia/

Technical details investigated by Adam Carter:
https://disobedientmedia.com/2017/12/fancy-frauds-bogus-bears-malware-mimicry/

[Rob Dekker]

Hefaistos,
Please stop spreading these conspiracy theories about the DNC hack.

The FBI informed DNC already back in September 2015 that their systems had been compromised by Russian hackers :

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/politics/russia-hack-election-dnc.html?src=twr&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

When Special Agent Adrian Hawkins of the Federal Bureau of Investigation called the Democratic National Committee in September 2015 to pass along some troubling news about its computer network, he was transferred, naturally, to the help desk.

His message was brief, if alarming. At least one computer system belonging to the D.N.C. had been compromised by hackers federal investigators had named “the Dukes,” a cyberespionage team linked to the Russian government.

The F.B.I. knew it well: The bureau had spent the last few years trying to kick the Dukes out of the unclassified email systems of the White House, the State Department and even the Joint Chiefs of Staff, one of the government’s best-protected networks.

This is almost one year before Crowdstrike investigated the DNC system and before Guccifer 2.0 persona shows up.

[Buddy]

From John Dean.....of Watergate fame:

"Nixon might have survived had there been a FOX News."

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/02/john-dean-nixon-might-have-survived-if-thered-been-a-fox-news-216207

FOX News continues to spew lies for Trump.  Nothing new here....they have been lying for about 25 years now.  Just like the news in Russia....or just like the news in Iran..... they spew lies.

Global warming is a hoax:                Check
Donald Trump is great:                    Check
Liberals are bad:                              Check
US business shouldn't be regulated:  Check
Tax cuts for the wealthy:                  Check 

FOX News is the most corrosive force against a democracy imaginable.  And Jeanine Pirro and Sean Hannity.....have been working to obstruct justice AT A MINIMUM....and they are helped by their idiotic counterparts like Stuart Varney, Maria Bartoromo, Papa Huckabee and others.

The US press....the REAL US PRESS.....ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN will have to up their game in coming weeks and months.  This is going to get a LOT UGLIER before it has any chance of getting better.

And the Washington Press Corps is going to have to put a LOT MORE PRESSURE on my favorite liar Sarah Lying Huckabee.

[Hefaistos]

Rob, why hasn't US intelligence so far been able to produce any sort of credible evidence? We have been given a highly politicized report, and are asked to believe claims that it was the Russians/the Kremlin that did these hacks. Skilful IT analysts are continuing to find anomalies in the official story, anomalies that point not to Russia, but to other, deceitful actors, in the US.
These analysts use open source and social media investigation to investigate this really important subject. I think these are laudable efforts, much like what Bellingcat (that you mentioned in positive terms on this forum) is undertaking in other areas. Why are you against investigative, open source efforts when it comes to Russiagate?

Yes, it's correct that "Cozy Bear", a.k.a. APT 29, are alleged to have made some spear-fishing of the DNC server in 2015, but it apparently didn't lead anywhere in terms of leaks, downloads etc.

Those are two different stories you're referring to Rob, and the DNC hack from 2016 is the one that has gotten a lot of attention since it produced all those secret documents.

[Buddy]

As we continue over the coming months the "impeachment count" in the Senate will begin.  We're quite a ways from that now....but it will start.  And Ben Sasse and a "probable" Mitt Romney will be two Republicans in the "impeach column".  The count needs to get to 18 in the Senate.

We still have a LOT more indictments to come.....the starting of the Manafort trial in May....and a LOT MORE information we will learn over the coming months.

As I said after the Comey firing....this will be a long process.  And it will be fought in the minds of public opinion.....which is why Donnie is working diligently with his buddies at FOX (lying Sean Hannity....and lying Jeanine Pirro).

Just never forget.....Donnie is "their boy".....and they did their best to lie him into office.  And they will do their lying best to keep him there.  THE TRUTH IS NEVER SOMETHING FOX HAS EMBRACED.

[Alexander555]

From John Dean.....of Watergate fame:

"Nixon might have survived had there been a FOX News."

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/02/john-dean-nixon-might-have-survived-if-thered-been-a-fox-news-216207

FOX News continues to spew lies for Trump.  Nothing new here....they have been lying for about 25 years now.  Just like the news in Russia....or just like the news in Iran..... they spew lies.

Global warming is a hoax:                Check
Donald Trump is great:                    Check
Liberals are bad:                              Check
US business shouldn't be regulated:  Check
Tax cuts for the wealthy:                  Check 

FOX News is the most corrosive force against a democracy imaginable.  And Jeanine Pirro and Sean Hannity.....have been working to obstruct justice AT A MINIMUM....and they are helped by their idiotic counterparts like Stuart Varney, Maria Bartoromo, Papa Huckabee and others.

The US press....the REAL US PRESS.....ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN will have to up their game in coming weeks and months.  This is going to get a LOT UGLIER before it has any chance of getting better.

And the Washington Press Corps is going to have to put a LOT MORE PRESSURE on my favorite liar Sarah Lying Huckabee.

Save yourself the time. These western democraties, they will all become totalitarian regimes. They are already dragged into deep rooted corruption. Mainly because of that globalisation. That's why they needed that flexible financial system. And from that financial crisis on, it went only worse. Now China and the rest of Asia is developing rapidly. That will push the west only further under pressure. And that means they will tide their grip even further, and become more and more like the regimes they have been fighting. And they will be worse animals than any other regime ever before. Because of these tech companies, they know every detail about a persons life. So these shareholders and developer of these tech companies, can better start taking there bags. And leaf.

[AbruptSLR]

A while back I speculated that Mueller might indict Steve Bannon next; however, now that I realize that George Papadopoulos reported directly to Bannon during the campaign, and that Mueller arrested and flipped Papadopoulos many months ago; I now suspect that Mueller has not yet publically interviewed Bannon because he already arrested and flipped Bannon shortly after Papadopoulos flipped and spilled the beans on what he told Bannon.  Maybe that is why Bannon left the White House under odd circumstances.

[AbruptSLR]

As a follow-on to my last post about the possibility that Mueller has already cut a plea deal with Bannon seems reasonable in light of Bannon's statements cited in the linked article:

Title: "Trump Tower meeting with Russians 'treasonous', Bannon says in explosive book"

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/03/donald-trump-russia-steve-bannon-michael-wolff

Extract: "Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon has described the Trump Tower meeting between the president’s son and a group of Russians during the 2016 election campaign as “treasonous” and “unpatriotic”, according to an explosive new book seen by the Guardian.

Bannon, speaking to author Michael Wolff, warned that the investigation into alleged collusion with the Kremlin will focus on money laundering and predicted: “They’re going to crack Don Junior like an egg on national TV.”"

[AbruptSLR]

At least the Fusion GPS founders think that major portions of the Steele Dossier are credible:

Title: "Fusion GPS founders: The Steele Dossier is a lot more important than you may think"

https://www.salon.com/2018/01/03/fusion-gps-founders-the-steele-dossier-is-a-lot-more-important-than-you-may-think/

Extract: "The former journalists who founded the research firm Fusion GPS — which hired British intelligence officer Christopher Steele to investigate potential collusion between Donald Trump and the Russian government — are defending their work against Republican attacks."

[SteveMDFP]

Rob, why hasn't US intelligence so far been able to produce any sort of credible evidence? 
 

Why?  Because it would be a felony to do so.  Classified investigations use classified methods to develop classified information.  Only the broadest of conclusions, "assessments" can be made public.  Anyone who leaks classified information to the press is liable to be swiftly convicted and sent to prison. 

How to assess the "National Security Assessment" boils down to whether you trust that a consensus opinion of the security agencies could reasonably be a fabrication, developed by inter-agency conspiracy.  Since the relevant agency heads testified to Congress about the veracity of the assessment, you further have to believe, if its all a fabrication, that the agency heads are personally prepared to go to prison for a long time to stick to the fabrication.  I think that's impossible.

It was a different issue with the Iraq "weapons of mass destruction" situation.  That was a matter of the White House managing bits of data and pressuring analysts to emphasize bits of weak data, ignore others, and make probabilistic assertions, none of which had the declared certainty of the current matter.

More important, the Iraq mis-intelligence directly served White House demands.  The current intelligence assessment is very much not in Trump's interest.  This give it far greater credibility.

[TerryM]

A while back I speculated that Mueller might indict Steve Bannon next; however, now that I realize that George Papadopoulos reported directly to Bannon during the campaign, and that Mueller arrested and flipped Papadopoulos many months ago; I now suspect that Mueller has not yet publically interviewed Bannon because he already arrested and flipped Bannon shortly after Papadopoulos flipped and spilled the beans on what he told Bannon.  Maybe that is why Bannon left the White House under odd circumstances.

If Rob is correct and the FBI informed the DNC as far back as 09/15 that the Russians had hacked their system, this further discredits the new story that it was the drunken rantings of George Papadopoulos to the Australian Ambassador that triggered Mueller's Investigation.


CrowdStrike, and the fact that it was their investigation, rather than the FBI's, that fingered the Russians has led me to suspect that if Guccifer 2.0 should prove more fluent in Russian, than he has in Romanian, that the Russian he speaks would have a distinct Ukrainian accent.
CrowdStrike's CTO Dmitri Alperovitch, is a Senior Fellow of The Atlantic Counsel, whose description as "hawkish on Russia" barely scratches the surface.


While many have noted the monetary connections between Hillary's campaign contributors and CrowdStrike, the following also asserts that CrowdStrike is the single connection between the DNC "hack" and the Kremlin.


http://dailycaller.com/2017/06/24/crowdstrike-five-things-everyone-is-ignoring-about-the-russia-dnc-story/

Terry

[TerryM]

At least the Fusion GPS founders think that major portions of the Steele Dossier are credible:

Title: "Fusion GPS founders: The Steele Dossier is a lot more important than you may think"

https://www.salon.com/2018/01/03/fusion-gps-founders-the-steele-dossier-is-a-lot-more-important-than-you-may-think/

Extract: "The former journalists who founded the research firm Fusion GPS — which hired British intelligence officer Christopher Steele to investigate potential collusion between Donald Trump and the Russian government — are defending their work against Republican attacks."

If I should ever be fortunate enough to sell my $160K dossier to someone for $6M, I'd certainly be willing to vouch for it's veracity.
Terry

[AbruptSLR]

While many have noted the monetary connections between Hillary's campaign contributors and CrowdStrike, the following also asserts that CrowdStrike is the single connection between the DNC "hack" and the Kremlin.


http://dailycaller.com/2017/06/24/crowdstrike-five-things-everyone-is-ignoring-about-the-russia-dnc-story/

Terry

I do not find the Daily Caller a credible source of information.

[AbruptSLR]

If I should ever be fortunate enough to sell my $160K dossier to someone for $6M, I'd certainly be willing to vouch for it's veracity.
Terry

Basically you are saying that anything one reads, or hears, might be a lie, including anything posted in this forum, as we cannot absolutely know the motives of any human source of pre-processed information.  Furthermore, in "The Trump Presidency" thread, JimD points-out this just leaves us with a knife fight.  So unless Trump pushes the very big button on his desk, we will have to wait a while to see whether the mid-term elections and Mueller's investigation cuts the Trump administration down to size.

[Alexander555]

I can't remember the name. But you have these confrontations between president candidates on television, just before the elections. Where they bring on some woman the accuse the other candidate of rape or whatever. It was disgusting to whatch. That this kind of people will become your political leaders. I would say that China has become what the west was 20 years ago, and west has become what China was 20 years ago. But the west is already much deeper into their cesspool. In China they were just corrupt, but at least they still had some kind of values. The west has become the sodom and gomorrah of the 21th century. Politicans and companies that are like empty bags of trash. It's hard to belief that anybody would go vote for them. Probably the hate for the other party is the main driver.

[TerryM]

While many have noted the monetary connections between Hillary's campaign contributors and CrowdStrike, the following also asserts that CrowdStrike is the single connection between the DNC "hack" and the Kremlin.


http://dailycaller.com/2017/06/24/crowdstrike-five-things-everyone-is-ignoring-about-the-russia-dnc-story/

Terry

I do not find the Daily Caller a credible source of information.

In that case either follow their links until a "reliable to you" source is found, or develop your own research. I had 7 sources that each divulged some of the information that dailycaller synopsized. My thought was that a single source might save others some time and effort.


How many sources are needed to prove links between CrowdStrike funding and Eric Schmidt's many links to Hillary's campaign?
Do we require additional links to show that CrowdStrike's CTO is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Institute, or that the Atlantic Institute is anti Russian?

Terry

[TerryM]

If I should ever be fortunate enough to sell my $160K dossier to someone for $6M, I'd certainly be willing to vouch for it's veracity.
Terry

Basically you are saying that anything one reads, or hears, might be a lie, including anything posted in this forum, as we cannot absolutely know the motives of any human source of pre-processed information.  Furthermore, in "The Trump Presidency" thread, JimD points-out this just leaves us with a knife fight.  So unless Trump pushes the very big button on his desk, we will have to wait a while to see whether the mid-term elections and Mueller's investigation cuts the Trump administration down to size.

No!


I prefer to believe in the veracity of those on this board. Some may be misinformed, some are mistaken, and some may simply have not thought things through to their logical conclusion, but I don't believe I've ever been lied to here.
Peoples biases and prejudices cloud their perceptions, and I do try to take this into account when reading their missives, both here and throughout life. People do lie of course, but it's much easier to lie to a stranger than it is to lie to someone that you expect to be interacting with for some time.


I believe Jim was talking about people bringing guns to knife fights, in other words those willing to break all the rules in order to win, people who don't mind being outed as cheats, as long as cheating results in victory.
Most on our side of the fence won't go to these extremes, which can place us in peril should we engage in what we believe to be a knife fight.


Have Funn
Terry

[Jim Pettit]

I'm waiting for one of this thread's anti-Clinton, pro-Trump/Putin regulars to tell us now that Bannon was a Democratic Party plant all along--likely paid by the Clinton Foundation, no doubt. :\

By now we know, despite many cries to the contrary, that it's not just Trump who's committed conspiracy against the US and treason, but the whole traitorous bunch of them, from his offspring to his in-laws and so on down. And those among that group too stupid to sing or simply in too deep are going to pay. Not just politically, and not just through abject humiliation, but by hard time in a Federal penitentiary. I for one can't wait; their reckoning is coming, and that right soon...

[Alexander555]

I'm waiting for one of this thread's anti-Clinton, pro-Trump/Putin regulars to tell us now that Bannon was a Democratic Party plant all along--likely paid by the Clinton Foundation, no doubt. :\

By now we know, despite many cries to the contrary, that it's not just Trump who's committed conspiracy against the US and treason, but the whole traitorous bunch of them, from his offspring to his in-laws and so on down. And those among that group too stupid to sing or simply in too deep are going to pay. Not just politically, and not just through abject humiliation, but by hard time in a Federal penitentiary. I for one can't wait; their reckoning is coming, and that right soon...

I want take long anymore before you will swallow these words. It's the democrats and their globalist buddies that made  China big. But now China is building a social security. Over here they spend 11 000 € for each person every year. For the Chinese population that's something like 16 trillion, or almost 150 % of the economy they have today. That's a lot of yuans that are going to flood the world. And when they flood the world, they will be used by the world. And that will be the end of the USD as the world reserve currency. And that means you can not us it anymore as a weapon, to put other countries at their place, like you do with russia, Iran, Venezuela today . But the new reserve currency can be used against you as a weapon. They can take YOU of the financial system. So if the democrats want to win another election, they should be fast. Because they will all be hanged in public i think, for treason.

[SteveMDFP]

I want take long anymore before you will swallow these words. It's the democrats and their globalist buddies that made  China big. 

Not at all.  The single biggest step to brining China into the global economy was courtesy of Richard Nixon.  He went to China, and initiated the first of the cultural and economic ties. 

Now China growing economically certainly hasn't been good for the environment.  But its been very good for the people there.  They have a budding middle class the size of the US population.  The Communist Party no longer launches purges like the Cultural Revolution.  They've become a one-party capitalist-technocratic system that takes great pains to deliver economic progress to the people, so that they can stay in power.  Genuine progress.

They're now delivering more solar panels to their own grid and to the rest of the world than anyone else.

Economic progress is not a zero-sum game.  Improvements there don't mean losses elsewhere.  Note, for example, the US is at close to full employment now, despite the economic growth of China.

And also note, the leadership of China is pursing a more steady hand, both domestically and internationally, than the current occupants at the head of US government.

P.S. Apologies to readers for enabling this off-topic post. 

[TerryM]

OT can be OK


I've a Chinese friend who visits home between her semesters here. The photos and tales she brings back prompted me to ask her if she didn't at times feel she was studying in a bit of a backwater. Sheepishly she agreed that this was so.


Has anyone viewed the results of the world wide annual computing contest recently.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM_International_Collegiate_Programming_Contest#Highest_Rank_Of_Countries_In_Last_Final_(2017)

While the University of Waterloo, where she studies, did pull off a tie for 13th place, the Russians have won every year since 2012.
It sounds a little like the Olympics, but without athleticism.

Terry

[Alexander555]

I want take long anymore before you will swallow these words. It's the democrats and their globalist buddies that made  China big. 

Not at all.  The single biggest step to brining China into the global economy was courtesy of Richard Nixon.  He went to China, and initiated the first of the cultural and economic ties. 

Now China growing economically certainly hasn't been good for the environment.  But its been very good for the people there.  They have a budding middle class the size of the US population.  The Communist Party no longer launches purges like the Cultural Revolution.  They've become a one-party capitalist-technocratic system that takes great pains to deliver economic progress to the people, so that they can stay in power.  Genuine progress.

They're now delivering more solar panels to their own grid and to the rest of the world than anyone else.

Economic progress is not a zero-sum game.  Improvements there don't mean losses elsewhere.  Note, for example, the US is at close to full employment now, despite the economic growth of China.

And also note, the leadership of China is pursing a more steady hand, both domestically and internationally, than the current occupants at the head of US government.

P.S. Apologies to readers for enabling this off-topic post.

That's right, they created something like 18 million jobs in the last 9 years. But that comes at a price. Because it takes something like a 100 000 usd of new debt for every job, every year again. In times of strong growth it can be a little less. In times of low growth it will be a little more. So you have a guarantee that your debt is going to grow significantly in the future. And most of that new debt is flooding the world. Because it is used to pay for your imports. And to fund your immigration policy. While Americans are getting slaughtered by drug epidemics and drug related gun violence, and trown into jail for some pretty stupid things. But to come back to the imports, and the related flooding. What do you think will happen with them when the world is going to face a flood of yuans. That asian population is 4,5 billion people big.