I can't think of a one sentence rebuttal to your points, Steve, so I'll reply to a couple of them. Overall, I do see this pattern where everything is bent to fit the Putin/Russia narrative. Remember, I'm not saying Putin is innocent, far from it, but you can't even bring yourself to saying: Anything is possible, but Putin is the main suspect. No, it has to be Putin, and so it is Putin. Full circle.
Whoever is behind the Skripal poisoning (even Putin), is probably counting on the majority of people to think you like do, shoving aside due process and trusting governments, media and intelligence agencies on their word. This is not only dangerous, but wrong.
The putative motives for Putin to order such a "signed" assassination are quite clear. First, he's made clear that he views such men as traitors, and promised such traitors will pay for their treason. Putin wouldn't issue such a decree without demonstrating he's serious, so he has to carry out assassinations that would-be traitors can understand as being Putin's justice. Nerve gas and polonium do this.
Why not just execute the guy while he was already in Russian prison? He had, at that point, value to trade, which happened. And Putin could have calculated that assassination after the guy gets sanctuary would have a *stronger* deterrent effect than mere execution in prison.
Why now, instead of a few years ago? Because Putin, right now, has a compelling need to make sure there are no more leaks. Steele likely attained information for the dossier from his Russian intelligence contacts. Regardless of Steele, there have been a number of recent arrests and at least one execution of FSB agents in recent months. Putin understands that his security apparatus has recently been a leaking sieve. Time now to instill strict discipline.
I'm amazed how you seem to be able to look right into Putin's head. Putin thinks this, Putin understands that. Are you his psychiatrist?
So, you instill strict discipline by killing a spy that was swapped 8 years ago? In exchange for even more international tensions, sanctions, etc? Couldn't he have ordered the execution of some double spy within Russia to make something clear? The message would've been the same, but without everyone in the West going nuts yet again.
Putin's quite popular in Russia - also thanks to Western media -, and so it's not like he needs some kind of mini-Reichstag to get or keep power. That can't be the motive either.
Like I said, it could be that Skripal knew something wrt Russiagate and had to be silenced. But why use a nerve agent that is considered to be a Russian fingerprint?
Finally, another possible motive of performing an assassination, in a way that points directly to Russia, no thorough investigation required, is to rile everyone up in the West
on purpose. I don't know what Putin expects to achieve that way. Given that the Russian economy is smaller than that of Spain and there are many socioeconomic problems, you would expect Putin not too be too happy with trade sanctions and so on. I can understand some chicanery to push back against NATO expansion on Russia's borders, but provocations don't make a lot of sense, on the face of it.
But maybe he is that crazy, evil mastermind, after all, looking to conquer Europe, just like in 1984.
I have great respect for A-Team's expertise in this realm. I don't doubt his words that a bright grad student could make Novichok. But really, who in their right mind is going to manufacture a weapon of mass destruction (with risk of life in prison), not to mention the risk of getting the process wrong and dying? Just to kill an old guy and frame Russia?
Someone who gets paid very handsomely? There should be plenty of former USSR chemists who would know how to manufacture it. It may be good to remember that the rest of the world doesn't look exactly like your neighbourhood, filled with people with your cultural values and standard of living. Like I've said, it's also entirely possible that this kind of stuff is sold on some kind of black market.
I think it would be wise to let go of the argument that only Russia owns all the Novichok in the world, and no one else knows how to make it. That's just too much wishful thinking.
No, an oligarch in Russia wouldn't dare create an international incident without Putin's approval--that could easily be another kind of death sentence.
Yet another assumption, in which you even imply Putin wouldn't be pleased with an international incident. How do you know what Russian oligarchs think and do? Are they your patients as well?
Maybe there's a faction that does it behind Putin's back. Or maybe the culprit doesn't care about Putin and just wanted Skripal dead, because of activities Skripal was still engaged in.
The CIA, doing so to frame Russia? Not even a Trump appointee would be so stupid. And it would have the effect of drying up all forms of intelligence from Russia.
Drying up all forms of intelligence from Russia? What are you talking about? Not even in movies do things work that way. What do you care about intelligence from corrupt Russia if your main goal is to push the New Cold War?
An anti-Russian Ukrainian plot, to frame Russia? Barely plausible. They, too, would suffer a drying up of intelligence sources.
Again the drying up...
And the risk of the plot becoming discovered would imply the current state there being utterly abandoned by the West, with Russian tanks ready then to roll into Kiev. Far too much risk, for very speculative benefit. They're smarter than Trump's administration, not dumber.
Why would the West abandon Ukraine, even if it was conclusively proven that it was done to frame Russia? Steve, don't project what you would do onto these forces. They are not honest like you are, and would spin the whole thing from here to Sunday. Do you really think everyone would go: Naughty Ukraine, you're on your own now? I'm pretty sure that kind of evidence wouldn't even see the light of day. Doesn't fit the narrative.
Neither will you see Russian tanks rolling into Kiev any time soon. That would be a huge strategical blunder, as Russia doesn't have the military power to pull such a stunt off. They have deterrents, yes, but not enough offensive power to take on NATO.
And why would they want to do more than control Crimea and other Russian ethnic regions? This isn't the USSR, where ideology trumps logic or morals. Russia is a capitalist country.
There are plenty of motives for Ukraine and their allies to further isolate Russia. Your counterarguments are weak at best.
So a defense contractor? Wrong MO. The agent used is difficult to detect. They'd risk personal ruin and life in prison for an act that might have easily been written off as a mere heart attack. Too much risk for speculative benefit No, they'd plant a bomb with components traceable to Russia, or sabotage Western armaments to look like Russian actions. Then we need a beefed-up armaments here. And they'd make it happen so that nobody dies, so no CEO has to risk prison.
So, if a bomb went off with components traceable to Russian, you would immediately believe that Russia actually did that? The nerve agent stuff makes some sense, but you'd really think that it would be a logical move for Russia to perform a terrorist attack in the West?
No CEO has to risk prison? Again, you are projecting your honest self. What would SteveMDFP do? Well, he sure wouldn't be so bold as to do something that would mean getting jailed!
These people don't think like you, Steve. They're above the law. Do you even know what 'military-industrial complex' means? It means something more than just a bunch of defense contractor looking to make an extra buck. The new head of the CIA is a torturer who destroyed evidence and got away with it. The neocons have a firm grip of US politics and government. Please, stop being so naive.
No, Putin's the only one with motive, opportunity, and a good risk/benefit ratio.
You wish this to be so, because the narrative that Russia is the source of all our woes is so comforting. You have your perfect enemy. All we have to do, is subjugate or destroy this enemy, and then we can start changing the world. Therefore we must trust everything our governments and intelligence agencies tell us. The wolf will protect us.
No, this is exactly how the wolf wants you to think.