Solar Roofs - Musk Style

[Bob Wallace]

From Elon's TED interview...

Elon: Yeah. Solar glass tiles where you can you can adjust the texture and the color to a very fine grain level. And then there’s sort of micro louvers in the glass, such that when you’re looking at the roof from street level or close to street level. All the tiles look look the same whether there is a solar panel behind it or a solar cell behind it or not. So you have an even color from from the ground level. If you look at it from a helicopter you’re actually able to look through and see that some of the glass tiles have a solar cell behind them and some do not. You can’t tell from street level.

Chris: Right. You put them in the ones that are likely to see a lot of sun and that makes them super affordable right? Not that much more expensive than just tiling the roof.

Elon: Yeah, we’re very confident that the cost of the roof plus the cost of electricity… A solar glass roof will be less than the cost of a normal roof plus the cost of electricity. So in other words, this will be economically a no-brainer. It will look… We think it will look great… And it will last… We thought about having the warranty be infinity, but then people said, well, that might sound like we were just talking rubbish, but I actually this is toughened glass. Well after the house has collapsed and there’s nothing there, the roof… the glass tiles will still be there.

Chris: I mean this is cool. So you’re rolling this out in a couple weeks time, I think with four different roofing types.

Elon: Yeah, we’re starting off with two. Two initially and the second two will be introduced early next year.

Chris: What’s the scale of ambition here? How many houses do you believe could end up having this type of roofing?

Elon: I mean, I think eventually. I think eventually almost all houses will have a solar roof. Now the thing is to consider the time scale here to be probably on the order of 40 or 50 years. So on average the roof is replaced every 20 to 25 years. So but you don’t you don’t start replacing all roofs immediately, but eventually, if you say you were to fast forward to say 15 years from now, it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar.

Earlier Elon said that Tesla had come up with a new glass formulation that's much tougher than other types of glass while costing about the same to manufacture.  I think that glass is going into the glass roof of the Model 3 and their solar tiles.

We know that solar panels lose from 0.1% to 0.4% output per year.  The higher number is for panels exposed to more wind/snow loading and/or higher UV exposure.  If this glass is as tough as Elon says, along with the tiles being much smaller than regular solar panels it seems like there would be no flexing due to snow or wind. 

As long as your house isn't in a high UV area then after 100 years your roof might still be producing 90% as much electricity as when it was new.

(I assume that when Elon talks about the price compared to 'normal' roofs he's talking about clay  and ceramic tile, not asphalt/composite shingles which are somewhat cheaper.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla has released pricing information about its solar roofs:

Bloomberg: 
Tesla’s Solar Roof Pricing Is Cheap Enough to Catch Fire
The cost of Elon Musk’s remarkable new product is judged “better than everyone expected.”

Tesla Inc. has begun taking orders for its remarkable solar roof tiles to be delivered by summer at a price point that could be transformative for the U.S. solar market.

Tesla will begin with production of two of the four styles of solar tile unveiled in October: a smooth glass and a textured glass version. The Tuscan and French slate tiles will be available by the end of this year. Roofing a 2,000 square-foot home in New York state—with 40 percent coverage of active solar tiles and battery backup for night-time use—would cost about $50,000 after federal tax credits and generate $64,000 in energy over 30 years, according to Tesla.

The warranty is for the lifetime of your house. ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-10/tesla-s-solar-roof-is-finally-ready-for-you-to-buy


Electrek:  Tesla releases details of its solar roof tiles: cheaper than regular roof with ‘infinity warranty’ and 30 yrs of solar power.
 (has a video of tiles being smashed by hail...)
https://electrek.co/2017/05/10/tesla-solar-roof-tiles-price-warranty/

Tesla: https://www.tesla.com/blog/solar-roof

If you factor in the cost of electricity generated, and the "lifetime of your house, or infinity, whichever comes first” guarantee, the cost can be less than asphalt shingles.

[Bob Wallace]

This should be a major disruptor.



I'm not sure why they talk about 30 years.  This should be a 100+ year roof. 

The NREL says 0.5% average loss per year for solar panels.  At age 50 the roof should still be producing 75% as much power as when new.  At age 100 production will still be 50% of new.  And the glass tiles should last far longer. 

What would be interesting it to see some payback times comparing asphalt roofs to Tesla's tiles based on the cost of avoided electricity.  With and without grid purchasing of excess generation and/or storage.  Once the market understands the value of solar tile (assuming Tesla's got their facts straight) I can see a major move away from all other roofing materials. 

I've got a metal roof + solar panels.  There's no doubt what I would do now were I just now building.

I can see an end to flat roofs on commercial buildings.  Might as well put a minimal slope to the roof and make it an additional profit center.  Tuck all that AC stuff under the high end, in the shade.

[Archimid]

This is a similar approach as he took with cars. The solar roof is cheaper than even asphalt roofs when   energy savings are taken into account. With out energy savings the solar roof is still cheaper than high end roofs. Of course, the percentage of homes that have high end roofs is small, but that is still a very large number of homes. Probably enough homes to justify the manufacturing equipment, installation fleet and a few more years of R&D. By the time we get Solar Roof 2 the price  should approach the price of asphalt roofs over time.

This is an absolutely brilliant strategy.

I find a solar roof coupled with batteries very alluring. In my neck of the woods sometimes there are power outages on a monthly basis. In the past 3 years I have been with out power for more than 2 days at least twice. I have a small solar panel/battery/inverter for emergency lighting and a small generator to run the fridge a few hours every day and run the water pump if need be. Still, that it is highly inconvenient. A solar roof would make such inconvenient events disappear at the same time that it saves me money.

Even if I could afford a solar roof, I have the problem that my home is concrete with a reinforced  concrete roof. The architecture of solar roof is incompatible with my home. But my roof is old and it already have leaks that I control with roof chemicals. My hope is that a solution compatible with the architecture of my house emerges where I don't have to re-seal the roof, but I just invest in a solar roof solution for concrete houses.

[Bob Wallace]

I have the problem that my home is concrete with a reinforced  concrete roof.

A flat concrete roof?

At some point might it make sense to build a sloped solar roof above the concrete roof and convert the roof space into alweather usable space?

(Where are you located?)

[Archimid]

Yep, a flat roof. I hope to eventually cover it with with a solar roof with a respectable incline.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla solar roof tiles: there’s a shocking amount of technology in the connectors, says Elon Musk

...
“This is a connector that has to last for more than 30 years. It has to be weatherproof, heavy rain, snow, slush, salt, water leaking – it’s like connector hell.”
...
Overall, the robust but lightweight design results in some interesting benefits that are not obvious. While Tesla’s solar roof products are not aimed at the asphalt roof market, which is significantly cheaper, it does offer an alternative for homeowners with an asphalt roof who want and could afford a tile roof, but they are generally too heavy for their house’s structure.

Tesla’s solar tiles being about a third of the weight of a regular tile could enable them to upgrade to a tile roof, or rather a solar tile roof, without making any structural change to the house.
...

https://electrek.co/2017/05/11/tesla-solar-roof-tile-connector/amp/

[Bob Wallace]

Salt?

Since the Tesla tile will apparently pay for themselves over a 25 to 30 year period (think life of mortgage) where there is no return from asphalt shingles I would say that the tiles are incredibly competitive with asphalt.   Pay more for your mortgage, less for electricity.  Total monthly payments should be about the same.

And after 20 or so years there will be no need to replace asphalt shingles. 

[Archimid]

plus it looks better. And with powerwall it serves as back up power.

[oren]

Yes, this is brilliant. Both saving money long-term plus the huge benefit of a battery backup system, not to mention the environmental benefit, really a no-brainer when you need to decide on a new roof or re-roof. Wish it had been available 5 years ago when I started designing my newly-built home.
And wish it had been available 20 years ago in time to save the world from GHGs. I doubt it will save the world now but it's as good a try as any I've seen.

[Sigmetnow]

Salt?

...

I think he is referring to work they did to harden automotive connectors to extreme road conditions -- knowledge they used to design solar roof connectors they could warranty for 30 years.   Besides, solar roofs would need to stand up to salt if they are installed on houses near the ocean....

“A lot of the challenges here leveraged some great learning from the Tesla team on validating automotive connectors and volume production processes. Tesla is building all these tiles ourselves – we are not outsourcing it. We have been able to solve those more complexed design problems and hit those price points that you see.”

[Archimid]

I think that an important part of the price comparison is the back up power capacity. A fair comparison of the price of solar roof  vs regular roofs would be:

 the price of solar roof (which includes batteries in the price) - energy savings
vs
 the price of regular roof + the price of a generator+ generator maintenance + the price of fuel + the value of not having to get fuel in an emergency.

Both of those adjusted for the useful life expectancy of each item.

I think the solar roof will be unbeatable in many markets.

Another advantage is that people that depend on emergency generators are limited by the fuel they can store or get.  In an emergency it may not be  easy to find tens of gallons of fuel a day. With solar roof you have fuel delivered to your rooftop every time the sun comes out. Plus it is completely silent.

Running a generator is extremely loud. In an emergency, that might not be a good thing to do.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla will offer Solar Roof financing by end of 2017

...
“We plan to offer financing in the U.S. in late 2017. In the meantime, you may be able to finance your Solar Roof with a personal loan, a home improvement loan, a home equity line of credit or other second mortgage product.” – Tesla
...
Unlike SolarCity’s previous focus on solar leasing, Tesla’s new Solar Roof won’t have a lease option as the product is installed directly onto the home itself and can not be removed. Tesla has since shifted away from a leasing model and now focusing on projects that will help the bottom line and generate more free cash flow.

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-solar-roof-financing-leasing-options/

[Bob Wallace]

Apparently the tiles are light enough that they can be used to reroof houses that now have asphalt shingle roofs.  No additional strengthening is needed as could be the case for clay tile or slate.

[Bob Wallace]

Here's some more info on Tesla roof prices.  Their system is less expensive than slate, tile, asphalt, etc. including a conventional solar system installed on the roof.



Much more expensive than slate, tile, asphalt, etc. without solar panels.

It's going to be interesting to see what sort of financing deals Tesla comes up with.  I would assume that the payments would be close to what one would pay for electricity since the roof is expected to pay for itself in about 30 years.

And here's an interesting durability test...

Tesla shot the tiles with a hail cannon. The video below compares Tesla’s solar tile (left) with traditional commercial slate and terracotta tiles. Each 2-inch hailstone is traveling at 110 miles per hour at the time of impact.

https://www.tesla.com/tesla_theme/assets/img/energy/solar/Hail_3up_Smooth_h264.m4v?20170509a

I'm not sure why the Tesla tile is mounted horizontally and the slate and tile vertically.  And if that skews the test one way or another. 

[Sigmetnow]

"I'm not sure why the Tesla tile is mounted horizontally and the slate and tile vertically.  And if that skews the test one way or another."

HUGE kerfuffle on the interwebs about that.   Per Musk, 1) that's the way the tested tiles are mounted on the roof, and 2) orientation is not a factor in Tesla tile strength.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/862421991617306624

[swoozle]

"I'm not sure why the Tesla tile is mounted horizontally and the slate and tile vertically.  And if that skews the test one way or another."

HUGE kerfuffle on the interwebs about that.   Per Musk, 1) that's the way the tested tiles are mounted on the roof, and 2) orientation is not a factor in Tesla tile strength.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/862421991617306624

Supports have the same separation distance for all, so it's equivalent.
Actually, the orientation of the Tesla tile provides a shorter vertical dimension over which to react the impact load. The Tesla tile test is more aggressive than the other two.

[Bob Wallace]

"I'm not sure why the Tesla tile is mounted horizontally and the slate and tile vertically.  And if that skews the test one way or another."

HUGE kerfuffle on the interwebs about that.   Per Musk, 1) that's the way the tested tiles are mounted on the roof, and 2) orientation is not a factor in Tesla tile strength.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/862421991617306624

Supports have the same separation distance for all, so it's equivalent.
Actually, the orientation of the Tesla tile provides a shorter vertical dimension over which to react the impact load. The Tesla tile test is more aggressive than the other two.

That was my guess, the test was harder on the Tesla tile.  That said, I'd like to see them redo it with all three sample oriented the same.

[Sigmetnow]

Doing the Math on Tesla's Solar Roof (Again)

Consumer Reports checks the costs for real-world homes, based on Tesla's pricing.

Now that Tesla has announced detailed pricing for its upcoming Solar Roof, which the company plans to start rolling out in June, potential customers can get an estimate on an installation using the company’s online calculator. If Tesla’s math is correct, it seems that in many cases the roof would more than pay for itself in electricity savings over the 30-year life of the warranty.
...

http://www.consumerreports.org/solar-panels/doing-the-math-on-teslas-solar-roof/

[Bob Wallace]

Doing the Math on Tesla's Solar Roof (Again)

Consumer Reports checks the costs for real-world homes, based on Tesla's pricing.

Now that Tesla has announced detailed pricing for its upcoming Solar Roof, which the company plans to start rolling out in June, potential customers can get an estimate on an installation using the company’s online calculator. If Tesla’s math is correct, it seems that in many cases the roof would more than pay for itself in electricity savings over the 30-year life of the warranty.
...

http://www.consumerreports.org/solar-panels/doing-the-math-on-teslas-solar-roof/

The next step is to get financing institutions to recognize the financial benefit and accept a higher mortgage amount due to the extra payment portion being offset by utility savings.

Sounds like Tesla is also working up some sort of financing plan.  Perhaps they will offer long term financing for roof replacements.  They were already doing a version of that for solar panel installations.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla made similar suggestions:

“We plan to offer financing in the U.S. in late 2017. In the meantime, you may be able to finance your Solar Roof with a personal loan, a home improvement loan, a home equity line of credit or other second mortgage product.”

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-solar-roof-financing-leasing-options/

[Sigmetnow]

Apparently the Tesla solar roof makes sense to a lot of people:

Tesla’s solar roof tiles are already sold out ‘well into 2018’

After first unveiling the product last year, Tesla started taking orders with a $1,000 deposit for the first versions of its solar roof tiles earlier this month.

Electrek has learned that demand exceeded expectations and that its solar roof tiles are now sold out ‘well into 2018’.
Earlier this week, analysts at RBC Capital Markets met with Tesla CFO Deepak Ahuja, who recently came back to Tesla in February, to discuss the company’s financials after the first quarter results.

In a note to clients about the meeting today, RBC said that Tesla is already sold out of solar roof tiles well into 2018.

Electrek was able to confirm independently that Tesla’s orders over the past few weeks indeed exceeded the company’s expectations and based on their current planned production ramp up, they expect their current demand to last well into 2018.
...

https://electrek.co/2017/05/25/tesla-solar-roof-tiles-sold-out-2018/

And remember, a Tesla solar roof comes bundled with a Powerwall battery backup system.   Great to see the enthusiasm for the new technology!

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla’s solar roof tiles get approved for permitting and installations

Tesla is moving quickly with its new solar roof tiles. Early installations could start as soon as next month after the company started taking orders earlier this month.

Now we learn that the company just received approval from Underwriters Laboratories (UL) for permitting and installations.

PV Magazine reported on the approval:

“Receiving UL’s Class A certifications should allow Solar Roof installations to face fewer objections from local permitting bodies in the United States, allowing easier deployment in more locations.”
...

https://electrek.co/2017/05/31/tesla-solar-roof-tiles-permitting-installations/

[Sigmetnow]

In the Q2 investor update conference call today, Tesla management discussed the early solar roofs being installed on the homes of Tesla employees, to allow a quick feedback loop of any problems and determine customer satisfaction.  You can read more in the Tesla update letter here: http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm

Adding solar roof and battery products to Tesla stores is working well.  The revenue per square foot is "stupidly high", Musk said during the conference call.  Solar roof orders are sold out well into 2018.  And he insisted the photos of solar roofs on the Tesla website were not photoshopped nor professionally created.  They really look like that.

Tesla completes first Solar Roof installations on employee homes, pilot production remains at Fremont

Tesla also noted that pilot production of the tempered glass Solar Roof tiles, which has been awarded ASTM International’s best Class F wind rating and certified by Underwriters Laboratories with its highest Class A fire rating, continues to take place from the Fremont facility. Production will begin at Tesla’s Gigafactory 2 plant in Buffalo, New York before the end of the year. ...

http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-completes-first-solar-roof-installations-employee-homes/

Tesla starts solar roof installations at home of CEO Elon Musk and other employees
https://electrek.co/2017/08/02/tesla-solar-roof-installation/