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TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #400 on: October 31, 2017, 04:25:23 PM »
However, based on current rates, it will take two centuries to reach that level.  I suspect the ships (and probably naval yards) might be rather antiquated by then.

Virginia Tech disagrees. We will see 8 feet at high tide by 2100 and we are not talking the naval base. Much of Norfolk will be flooded routinely at high tide.

Other scientists disagree with Virginia Tech.  The following details how the land around Norfolk is subsiding by about 3 mm/yr due mostly to ground water extraction. 

https://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=78612&


One group of scientists states that sea level rise and ground subsistence will cause problems around Norfolk.
Another group of scientists says that ground subsistence and sea level rise will cause problems around Norfolk.
Who should we believe?
Terry

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #401 on: October 31, 2017, 06:30:43 PM »

One group of scientists states that sea level rise and ground subsistence will cause problems around Norfolk.
Another group of scientists says that ground subsistence and sea level rise will cause problems around Norfolk.
Who should we believe?
Terry

 ;D

The only question is whether he is very misinformed or a troll.

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #402 on: October 31, 2017, 07:26:42 PM »

One group of scientists states that sea level rise and ground subsistence will cause problems around Norfolk.
Another group of scientists says that ground subsistence and sea level rise will cause problems around Norfolk.
Who should we believe?
Terry

 ;D

The only question is whether he is very misinformed or a troll.


I assume the latter.
BTW, very much appreciated your comments re. oil prices, a subject I'm not familiar with.
Terry

sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #403 on: November 02, 2017, 07:23:19 AM »
Summer wet bulb temperatures to jump under RCP 8.8

"Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century."

doi:10.1002/2017EF000639

Open access. Read all about it.

sidd

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #404 on: November 02, 2017, 03:48:39 PM »
Please excuse me for reposting a variation of a comment just posted but I wanted to drive home a point to emphasize how critical the situation is for vulnerable tidewater regions in the U.S. I also would like the casual visitor to be able to assess the comments from our resident trolls.

The first chart is a current chart of tides that are occurring in Norfolk for the week of Friday, October 27 through Saturday, November 4. When looking at these high tides, it is important to remember that some of the lowest areas of Norfolk already flood at high tide. These most vulnerable regions flood daily! For the week, high tide varies from 2.6 feet to 3.9 feet.

The North Carolina coast will be experiencing the fastest growth in sea levels of any region of the U.S., primarily due to it being along the Gulf Stream which shoves water up against the coast as it flows by. Sea levels are expected to rise 5 feet by 2100. If the Atlantic overturning were to diminish which could slow the flow of the Gulf Stream, sea levels would rise even higher.

The 2nd image (a map of Norfolk) shows the areas of the city that will flood at high tide in 2100. Please remember, these areas will flood every single day of the year!

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #405 on: November 02, 2017, 03:53:54 PM »
In a 2012 study, commissioned by the City of Norfolk, it was determined that it will cost $1 billion to address a sea level rise of 1 foot. This does not imply that it will cost $5 billion to address a sea level rise of 5 feet. Quite simply, at certain sea levels, there are no feasible engineering solutions.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #406 on: November 02, 2017, 07:06:34 PM »
One interesting aspect of this map is the large prominent gray area on the northwest edge of Norfolk. This is the naval base and the impact of sea level rise is blocked out. There is, however, a prominent area of pink situated in the center of the base which is actually part of the city but not part of the base. It is nearly all pink and one can conclude that most of the base in 2100 will be flooding daily at high tide.

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #407 on: November 02, 2017, 09:24:14 PM »
Would I be correct in assuming massive health concerns when sanitary systems are inundated at high tide? Large areas might become unlivable long before tide waters have topped the curbs.
I'm concerned about the state of the sewer system in Miami now.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/15/in-irmas-wake-millions-of-gallons-of-sewage-and-wastewater-are-bubbling-up-across-florida/?utm_term=.2cf2495882f2


Terry

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #408 on: November 02, 2017, 09:36:43 PM »
That was a scary article.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #409 on: November 05, 2017, 06:10:33 PM »
Would I be correct in assuming massive health concerns when sanitary systems are inundated at high tide? Large areas might become unlivable long before tide waters have topped the curbs.
I'm concerned about the state of the sewer system in Miami now.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/15/in-irmas-wake-millions-of-gallons-of-sewage-and-wastewater-are-bubbling-up-across-florida/?utm_term=.2cf2495882f2


Terry

One thing mentioned in the article is that the waste water system is under negative pressure. This must mean the entire system is connected to pumps which essentially pull waste water through the system. This is in contrast to most waste water systems that are gravity fed and must be due to the fact that the entire area is so close to sea level. It seems the article is suggesting there is nothing to do with the collected waste water when flooding occurs but to release it into the sea.

In Chicago (I live here), the system is gravity fed and we used to have terrible flooding problems when it rained heavy. Periodically, they had to open the locks where the Chicago River meets Lake Michigan and dump waste water into the lake where we get our drinking water. In 1972, after an extensive study, a decision was made to build a deep tunnel that would carry storm water and waste water and store it in reservoirs where it can later be pumped out and treated. The tunnels, up to 33 feet in diameter, are over 300 feet below ground. Some of these reservoirs are unused limestone quarries like the picture below. The project has cost more than $3 billion and is not yet complete but flooding has already been virtually eliminated. The Chicago River, once an open sewer, now has over 50 species of fish thriving in it.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2017, 06:27:55 PM by Shared Humanity »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #410 on: November 06, 2017, 08:30:17 PM »
New analysis from The Guardian, since it looks like 3°C (at least) is likely.

From Miami to Shanghai: 3C of warming will leave world cities below sea level
An elevated level of climate change would lock in irreversible sea-level rises affecting hundreds of millions of people, Guardian data analysis shows
Hundreds of millions of urban dwellers around the world face their cities being inundated by rising seawaters if latest UN warnings that the world is on course for 3C of global warming come true, according to a Guardian data analysis.

Famous beaches, commercial districts and swaths of farmland will be threatened at this elevated level of climate change, which the UN warned this week is a very real prospect unless nations reduce their carbon emissions.

Data from the Climate Central group of scientists analysed by Guardian journalists shows that 3C of global warming would ultimately lock in irreversible sea-level rises of perhaps two metres. Cities from Shanghai to Alexandria, and Rio to Osaka are among the worst affected. Miami would be inundated - as would the entire bottom third of the US state of Florida.

The Guardian has found, however, that local preparations for a 3C world are as patchy as international efforts to prevent it from happening. At six of the coastal regions most likely to be affected, government planners are only slowly coming to grips with the enormity of the task ahead - and in some cases have done nothing. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/03/miami-shanghai-3c-warming-cities-underwater

Includes a "Quick Guide: Why are we talking about a three-degree world?"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #411 on: November 08, 2017, 09:02:51 PM »
Delhi urged to declare emergency after third day of heavy pollution
New Delhi (CNN)The Delhi government is being urged to declare a city-wide health emergency, as residents endured a third straight day of heavy pollution.

Air quality readings in India's capital have soared since Tuesday, with one monitor showing levels in the city were 969 -- the World Health Organization considers anything above 25 to be unsafe. ...
http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/08/health/delhi-pollution-health-emergency/index.html
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Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #412 on: November 09, 2017, 12:43:44 AM »
New analysis from The Guardian, since it looks like 3°C (at least) is likely.

From Miami to Shanghai: 3C of warming will leave world cities below sea level
An elevated level of climate change would lock in irreversible sea-level rises affecting hundreds of millions of people, Guardian data analysis shows
Hundreds of millions of urban dwellers around the world face their cities being inundated by rising seawaters if latest UN warnings that the world is on course for 3C of global warming come true, according to a Guardian data analysis.

Famous beaches, commercial districts and swaths of farmland will be threatened at this elevated level of climate change, which the UN warned this week is a very real prospect unless nations reduce their carbon emissions.

Data from the Climate Central group of scientists analysed by Guardian journalists shows that 3C of global warming would ultimately lock in irreversible sea-level rises of perhaps two metres. Cities from Shanghai to Alexandria, and Rio to Osaka are among the worst affected. Miami would be inundated - as would the entire bottom third of the US state of Florida.

The Guardian has found, however, that local preparations for a 3C world are as patchy as international efforts to prevent it from happening. At six of the coastal regions most likely to be affected, government planners are only slowly coming to grips with the enormity of the task ahead - and in some cases have done nothing. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/03/miami-shanghai-3c-warming-cities-underwater

Includes a "Quick Guide: Why are we talking about a three-degree world?"

I wondered that same thing.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #413 on: November 14, 2017, 03:37:52 AM »
Fire trucks to spray Indian capital amid deepening smog emergency
India plans to use fire trucks to spray water over parts of its capital to combat toxic smog and dust that has triggered a pollution emergency, with conditions expected to worsen over the weekend.

Illegal crop burning in farm states surrounding New Delhi, vehicle exhausts and swirling construction dust have contributed to what has become an annual crisis.

Authorities will use the fire trucks in areas with high concentrations of toxic dust, said Ritesh Kumar Singh, an environment ministry official, after a meeting of civil servants from the city government and four neighboring states. ...
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1DA0V3
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sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #414 on: November 14, 2017, 06:19:52 AM »
That Delhi situation is getting to the point where even the powers that be must breathe the same shit as the peasants every time they go out of doors. I think the Supreme Court might step in more aggressively than they already have. After all, they got to live there too.

Sorta like China.

sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #415 on: November 14, 2017, 05:34:53 PM »
The Willamette Valley in Oregon had this very same problem as Delhi with field burning when I lived there. Some 160 golf course rye seed growers would get a slightly better return on investment according to a 40-year old study from the local ag college by torching the stubble, so never mind the health toll on the other 3,000,000 valley residents. It was called Freedom to Farm.

Rural interests were greatly favored then and now by legislator allocation which was historically property-owner based. Eventually they smoked out the freeway causing an epic multi-vehicle pileup and lost support. Very similar to household plastic trash smoldering in a backyard barrel which was also legal until very recently.

Punjab, at least they are growing food there. I have no idea whether it is just a traditional practice without a agronomic basis (soil nitrogen will largely volatilize and waft away, not stay as ready fertilizer), whether it is just slightly cheaper than discing, whether markets exist for stubble (they do), whether it is just stubborn regional flexing of political muscle, whether soil pests are actually reduced, or whether it would be far cheaper simply to accept reduced yield and import (more) wheat from the US.

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #416 on: November 15, 2017, 03:14:56 PM »
Let’s take a look at how tides work.

In Norfolk they have a semi-diurnal tide, that’s a tide that has roughly two tide cycles
every 24 hrs.  That’s two high’s and two lows, now for instance a four ft. tide swing does not add 4 ft of water to land maps, which are drawn to equal mean sea level. Nautical charts on the other hand are drawn to absolute low tide, so a four ft swing will add 4ft
feet of water on a nautical chart.

So, if you have a four ft tide in Virgina or NJ or wherever you add 2ft of water to a land
Map at high tide and subtract 2 ft of water at low tide on…. a land map.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tide#/media/File:Tide_terms.png

All of this, when one considers sea level rise…I think is irreverent.  Since I have been reading here at the ASIF max SLR by 2100 has gone up steadily as our understanding
of ice dynamics improves…..I fear this will continue, sometimes in a dramatic fashion.
 

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #417 on: November 17, 2017, 02:16:34 AM »
Thanks bligh8.

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #418 on: November 20, 2017, 05:01:06 AM »
I meant to say: your writing .... beautiful, even poetic at times. 
Fair Winds
Bligh

Avalonian

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #419 on: November 25, 2017, 06:53:49 AM »
Morocco is also struggling with the second consecutive significant drought year...
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42119365

Although the south is pretty arid (although we always seem to get torrential storms when I'm there!), most of the time the Atlas (used to) pick up enough rainfall to keep the agriculture happy. Rainfall is pretty unreliable, it must be said, but still - these droughts are clearing increasing in frequency and are now becoming almost an annual problem.

See this document for more on Morocco's climate and drought problems:
https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/387707.%20Morocco.pdf

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #420 on: December 01, 2017, 10:44:56 PM »
North Carolina, U.S.

In the Outer Banks, Officials and Property Owners Battle to Keep the Ocean at Bay
Nags Head’s struggle with beach erosion and litigious homeowners offers a preview of what’s to come as storms and rising seas hit communities from Maine to Texas.
Ever since a nor'easter slammed the Outer Banks in 2009, damaging hundreds of homes along these barrier islands, Goldner's cottage has been largely uninhabitable. The storm sucked the land out from beneath the homes. Now only two remain in a row that once numbered 10. Erosion has gradually consumed the shoreline in the tourist town of Nags Head, seizing homes and threatening nearly a billion dollars' worth of property.

Sea level rise from climate change is making matters worse. For homeowners caught in the middle, the damage has left some facing substantial financial losses.

"I just want to break even," said Goldner, a tall man with tousled gray hair and blue eyes.

After the nor'easter, the town declared Goldner's home and nine others on East Seagull Drive public nuisances and ordered their demolition. Two were torn down, but the owners of the other eight fought back. Their lawsuits dragged for years and led to a ruling that said towns did not have the right to clear homes from the beach. Nags Head eventually paid $1.5 million to buy out the owners of six, but it was unable to remove the final two homes.

Goldner, his neighbor and the town are now in a stalemate. The owners of the two remaining homes are unable to secure permits to rebury septic tanks that now poke through the sand. Town officials don't want to spend any more to buy them out. Neighbors are upset that the town spent millions of taxpayer dollars on lawsuits and settlements, yet failed to clear the beach.

If Goldner's house collapsed, he could at least collect insurance. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28112017/nags-head-north-carolina-beach-erosion-climate-change-sea-level-rise
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pikaia

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #421 on: December 03, 2017, 08:09:16 PM »
"A cricket Test match between India and Sri Lanka was repeatedly interrupted on Sunday with claims players were “continuously vomiting” due to hazardous pollution levels in the Indian capital."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/03/pollution-stops-play-at-delhi-test-match-as-bowlers-struggle-to-breathe

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #422 on: December 11, 2017, 09:23:40 PM »
Tough decisions will need to be made as to what to protect in the future.

'Buried in marshes': sea-level rise could destroy historic sites on US east coast
New research shows by the end of the century an increase in sea level will threaten the White House, early colonial settlements and other historic places
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/29/buried-in-marshes-sea-level-rise-could-destroy-historic-sites-on-us-east-coast
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wili

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #423 on: December 12, 2017, 02:27:23 PM »
Good catch, sig. And these studies are assuming that catastrophic cliff failure, etc, in the Antarctic don't kick in in a big way this century, I presume.

So the coasts will be inundated, and much of the interior of North America will be desertifying.



http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/drought-western-us-1900-2100.png
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gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #424 on: December 22, 2017, 10:13:54 AM »
A long read from the NY Times about Jakarta, showing how climate change may be that which administers the final coup-de-grace to a city of 10 million (and 30 million in the greater Jakarta Metropolitan area) afflicted with so many other man-made problems.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/21/world/asia/jakarta-sinking-climate.html?
« Last Edit: December 22, 2017, 11:13:52 AM by gerontocrat »
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pikaia

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #425 on: December 22, 2017, 10:47:33 AM »

Pmt111500

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #426 on: December 22, 2017, 12:09:27 PM »



http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/drought-western-us-1900-2100.png

wow. I'll go straightaway assuming that's for so called normal precipitation. Is this all because of the RRR? Abnormal precipitation could increase to fill in the gap? Umm. India and crumbling tarmac comes to mind.  :o ::) ???
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #427 on: December 22, 2017, 02:43:02 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

jai mitchell

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #428 on: December 22, 2017, 06:27:42 PM »
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-12/teia-hmp122017.php

The study found that by the 2070s, high wet-bulb readings that now occur maybe only once a year could prevail 100 to 250 days of the year in some parts of the tropics. In the southeast United States, wet-bulb temperatures now sometimes reach an already oppressive 29 or 30 degrees Celsius; by the 2070s or 2080s, such weather could occur 25 to 40 days each year, say the researchers.

On our current course, within 40-60 years hundreds of millions of people may be exposed to a combined effect of temperatures + humidity that breach "the limit of human tolerance to heat"—a condition exceedingly rare today.
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ghoti

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #429 on: December 23, 2017, 01:27:52 AM »
The northern towns often rely on winter to make winter roads. With warmer winters more places are finding they have to help winter to get the roads usable. Dawson Creek needs the Yukon River to freeze and it is very late happening. They are working on ways to aid the freeze up.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/dawson-city-ice-bridge-yukon-build-1.4461544

Pmt111500

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #430 on: December 23, 2017, 07:08:01 AM »



http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/drought-western-us-1900-2100.png

I don't understand the scale on the left. What are the units?

Standard Deviations?
Yeah, if that's the case this model result clearly states times of stability are over. This of course assuming they've used normal distribution function as their baseline to compare the model results. Like, assume no change, and also plot the results as there was no change. The resulting plot would show the trend as the machine sees it. That plot would show a downward trend wrt precipitation for western US almost all the on-going century. So the result would indeed be desertification style Karakum or Taklimakan where the mountains prevent the rains most of the year and any snow will evaporate straight up once spring starts. No doubt Rockies and Cascades still get some water, but nowhere near the amounts that they had this year. If we choose to believe these models, that is (no need to convince the deniers living in these areas.)

Waiting for the near-future mixed western-scifi movie where cowboys have become camel herders and tribal denier caravans fight each other with laser pistols over a non-salted oasis in Kansas. The name of the flick could be f.e. Mad Max 11? (If you want to cast realism aside, add an outside threat of Mexican llama-herders invading the area with force-fields and light sabers (yes, went to watch Star Wars VIII))
« Last Edit: December 23, 2017, 08:54:53 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #431 on: January 08, 2018, 03:24:30 AM »
50°C = 122°F

”populations could swelter in 50-degree weather even if the 2-degree global warming limit agreed in the 2015 Paris accord were achieved”

'Really awful': 50-degree days possible for Sydney, Melbourne, as warming worsens
https://amp.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/really-awful-50degree-days-possible-for-sydney-melbourne-as-warming-worsens-20171002-gyt512.html
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sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #432 on: January 09, 2018, 12:47:16 AM »
Rivers in the USA becoming more saline:

doi: 10.1073/pnas.1711234115

"The freshwater salinization syndrome can increase risks to the safety of drinking water and infrastructure. Elevated salt levels in drinking water can contribute to hypertension in people on sodium-restricted diets and is of concern to people requiring kidney dialysis (9). Salinization and alkalinization influence the corrosivity of water, and this can affect leaching of metals from pipes carrying drinking water (9, 68). Salinization increases corrosion of transportation infrastructure with United States economic costs estimated in the billions of dollars (69). Given increasing impacts on ecosystems and human welfare, increased salinization and alkalinization of fresh water is now a pervasive water quality issue, which may require aggressive management in both arid and humid climates across latitudes."

Open access. Read all about it.

sidd

wili

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #433 on: January 16, 2018, 12:04:53 AM »
A consequence of places becoming less livable is that people from those newly unlivable places necessarily either die or become refugees:


Study finds that global warming exacerbates refugee crises

Higher temperatures increase the number of people seeking asylum in the EU


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jan/15/study-finds-that-global-warming-exacerbates-refugee-crises
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."