Hurricane season 2017

[Csnavywx]

Trained spotter report of 10" in 1.5 hours. Eye-popping rainfall amounts under that band.

[Csnavywx]

Yep, band merger ongoing with massive overshooting tops on the storms. Houston is in serious trouble tonight. I really don't remember ever seeing this much lightning during a tropical system. It's bizarre seeing strobe lightning in a TC feeder band.

[Reallybigbunny]

Great live streaming as Houston is very quickly going under water right now. Some areas getting 6-7 inches per hour. Great viewing at link below!

[Jim Hunt]

Hurricane Harvey: Texas power outages affect more than quarter-million

Outages peaked at ~300,000 yesterday:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/

Back down to ~250,000 this morning (UTC)

[gerontocrat]

ASIF is a damn sight better info centre on Harvey than the mainstream media. Looks like social media is doing a first class job as well.

[Reallybigbunny]

OMG I can't bring myself to believe the rainfall extent in Houston and surrounds is really happening. I have been tuned in since Harvey hit land and it is happening as predicted. The people of Houston did not prepare for this. Best wishes to all affected!

[wili]

Well put, geront and rbb.

For uptodate coverage of the unfolding horrors, the best spot is the comments section at Cat6:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/heavy-damage-texas-harvey-now-tropical-storm

[pileus]

An apparently unprecented warning statement issued from NWS.  Note that approximately 5 million people in Houston are under a Flash Flood Emergency, and heavy rain continues.  The latest Euro run is grim for Houston, taking Harvey back the Gulf and bringing it ashore just west of Houston on Wednesday.  It would be beyond catastrophic, if that is possible.

[Sigmetnow]

8/27 554AM: @hcfcd reports water entering second story of houses and apartments near Hobby Airport & lower Hunting Bayou near I-10. #houwx
https://mobile.twitter.com/txstormchasers/status/901760013118709761

Chief Art Acevedo: have reports of people getting into attic to escape floodwater do not do so unless you have an ax or means to break through onto your roof
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901726809141649408

"Flash Flood Emergency" was not severe enough so @NWSHouston just issued a"Flash Flood Emergency For Catastrophic Life Threatening Flooding" :

NWS Houston: 1:45 AM CDT FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY LIST UPDATE. CATASTROPHIC LIFE THREATENING FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS SE TEXAS. #houwx #glswx #txwx #bcswx
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/901697054812114945

A new "Flash Flood Emergency for Life-Threatening Catastrophic Flooding" just now:
>1000 high water rescues so far, people fleeing to attics
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901748106600972289

NWS Houston: NEW FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC
FLOODING... #txwx #houwx #glswx #bcswx #Harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901748524060106753

Just a reminder, a "Flash Flood Emergency for Life-Threatening Catastrophic Flooding" wasn't a thing before tonight. @NWSHouston created it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901749174139367425

[Sigmetnow]

Majority of channels are out of banks. Visit harriscountyfws.org for more information. #houwx #txwx #harvey
https://twitter.com/hcfcd/status/901700260464128001

Greg Postel: This could easily be one of the worst flooding disasters in U.S. History.  The heavy rain will last thru much of the week    #txwx #Harvey
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901742839305928704

Ugh, latest NHC update shows the center of #Harvey now more likely to move south & possibly back over the Gulf before heading toward Houston
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901743837155962880

New 7-day NWS forecast calls for an additional 20-25" on top of the 10-25" that's already fallen in and around Houston.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901760358460776448

[pileus]

Chilling and heartbreaking listening to the police and fire scanners from Harris County, Texas.  High water is preventing many rescue attempts by vehicle.  There is resignation and frustration in the voices of the responders.  They will need to bring out the boats, and helicopters at daybreak.

[Sigmetnow]

"There are no words. "
https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/901794038289805312/photo/1

[gerontocrat]

Chilling and heartbreaking listening to the police and fire scanners from Harris County, Texas.  High water is preventing many rescue attempts by vehicle.  There is resignation and frustration in the voices of the responders.  They will need to bring out the boats, and helicopters at daybreak.

Have the emergency services access to amphibious vehicles ?

[Sigmetnow]

This is the #KHOU11 lobby, filling with water. Studio too. Crew is now broadcasting from upstairs. Going on 12 hours straight.

We are now moving operations to the second floor...Water is quickly coming into our building in the lobby
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexandriaKHOU/status/901781852096262144

KHOU has a live feed on Facebook from their makeshift studio on the second floor.  "KHOU 11 News"


UPDATE:  KHOU was forced off the air after their studio flooded.  They were able to relocate to a temporary studio 25 miles away:
"We made it! 25 miles in 2 hours. Thanks @DarbyKHOU. Here's our new temp home - PBS station @UHouston #khou11"
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/901935622545436673

[A-Team]

The inundation map around Buffalo Bayou at 62.5' seems to show, on a 48.7' pre-prepared FEMA flood map, relatively little of the adjacent city is affected so far whereas the current water level is 62.3' (just barely a record) with a further 13' is apparently foreseen.

Tucson is quite flat so a much wider area will be affected. Flood boundaries of the 1992 event (from aerial photos) can't be used because of subsequent land subsidence (land sinking after ground water pumping) into a deeper bowl configuration.

Historic Crests
(1) 61.23 ft on 03/04/1992
(2) 60.98 ft on 04/28/2009
(3) 58.28 ft on 05/26/2015
(4) 57.72 ft on 04/18/2016
(5) 57.31 ft on 05/18/1989

Parts of Harris County have dropped between 10 and 12 feet since the 1920s, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

State and local officials have made various efforts over the past 40 years to stabilize the ground, but some areas continue to sink - by as much as 2 inches per year.

Spring Branch, where Interstate 10 and Beltway 8 meet, has dropped 4 feet since 1975. Jersey Village, along Route 290 and to the west of Beltway 8, is almost 2 feet lower than it was in 1996. And Greater Greenspoint, where Interstate 45 intersects with Beltway 8, has given up about 2 feet in the last decade alone, according to USGS data.

"When you lose that much, it makes an area prone to floods when they weren't historically," said Mark Kasmarek, a hydrogeologist for more than 30 years with the USGS.

There is little mystery to why this is happening: The developing region draws an excessive amount of groundwater to keep itself quenched. Over the last century, aquifers here have lost between 300 and 400 feet, leaving the land to collapse.
 
Houston sits in one of the nation's largest subsidence bowls, so-called because of the crater effect that happens when the ground caves.

A USGS map of Harris County shows the city's bowl containing many smaller bowls, some with 8- to 9-foot drops in elevation. Many of these areas are in places known to flood, like the Heights, Montrose, downtown and near the East End.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/For-years-the-Houston-area-has-been-losing-ground-7951625.php

[pileus]

Chilling and heartbreaking listening to the police and fire scanners from Harris County, Texas.  High water is preventing many rescue attempts by vehicle.  There is resignation and frustration in the voices of the responders.  They will need to bring out the boats, and helicopters at daybreak.

Have the emergency services access to amphibious vehicles ?

They have a finite supply of high water vehicles, and others are inbound from adjacent areas.  Coast Guard helicopters are conducting rooftop extractions.

[Sigmetnow]

The Coast Guard to Houston:
"Stay calm, do not panic. Do not go into the attic. Mark the roof to be seen from the air.  Wave sheets, towels
https://mobile.twitter.com/ginger_zee/status/901791099798335489

[Sigmetnow]

Why Harvey isn't moving.

Edit, from an article posted on the 28th:
Harvey Is What Climate Change Looks Like

...Weather patterns are also getting “stuck” more often, boosting the chances that a storm like Harvey would stall out. Some scientists have linked this to melting Arctic sea ice, which reduces strength of the polar jet stream and weakens atmospheric steering currents that can otherwise dip down and kick a storm like Harvey on its way. To be sure, a storm like Harvey may have been possible in the absence of climate change, but there are many factors at play that almost assuredly made it more likely. ...

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-215547

[A-Team]

Here is a portion of the Houston subsidence map linked above ... self-inflicted since 1920 by decades of unsustainable  groundwater pumping (ditto here in AZ or over in CA though geologies differ). These are big numbers relative to river rise, approaching 12' extra water depth.

It's not news as USGS has been measuring Houston subsidence for the last 40 years.

In the Houston-Galveston region, land subsidence is caused by compaction of fine-grained aquifer sediments (silts and clays) below the land surface due to groundwater withdrawals. Removing water from fine-grained aquifer sediments compresses the aquifer leaving less pore space available to store water resulting in the lowering (sinking or settling) of the land-surface. Most compaction that occurs as a result of groundwater withdrawals is irreversible; even if groundwater levels rise, compacted sediments and the associated land-surface lowering would remain as-is.
 https://txpub.usgs.gov/houston_subsidence/home/

New Orleans subsidence differs as it includes pumping away surface recharge water in addition to subsurface water extraction, as explained here: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6513

[Csnavywx]

Total volume of rain over Houston has now surpassed Allison. Long way to go. New benchmarks are being set.

[pileus]

In addition to the links posted by Sig and others, this is another consoidated place for info

https://www.reddit.com/live/zhon9xy85b55/

[Sigmetnow]

Daylight reveals the extent of flooding in Houston #hurricane #harvey #Houston buffalobayoupark #flood #flooding #…
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901817071025086464

[A-Team]

Just a perspective from CDC that provides context for loss of life in Harris County attributable to Hurricane Harvey (728 deaths per week baseline w/o storms).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Number of deaths: 2,626,418 people die in US per year
Death rate: 8237 deaths per 1,000,000 population per year

Number of deaths: 7191 people die in US per day
Death rate: 23 deaths per 1,000,000 population per day

Population of Harris County TX 4.538 million
Death rate in Harris County 104 deaths per day

Homicide in Houston 2016: 323 murders in 2016 or 6 per week
https://www.click2houston.com/news/investigates/houston-1-of-3-cities-driving-national-murder-rate-higher-report-says

Leading causes of death:

1.4% of whole US used to estimate Harris County

Heart disease: 9102 (25 per day)
Cancer: 8558
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 2227
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 2104
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 2015
Alzheimer’s disease: 1588
Diabetes: 1144
Influenza and Pneumonia: 819
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 717
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 635

Translation: top ten are obesity, poor diet, sedentary lifestyle, age-related causes, and otherwise self-inflicted.

[Sigmetnow]

NWS: "This event is unprecedented & all impacts are unknown & beyond anything experienced. Follow orders from officials to ensure safety. #Harvey "
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS/status/901832717070983169

"Quite honestly, I've never seen the NWS say something like this before."
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901835346295402496

[Sigmetnow]

Excerpt of Houston mayor’s 10am press conference, paraphrasing:

Reporter: Why didn't you give the order to evacuate?

Mayor: We didn't know where the storm was going. Evacuations have to be planned. You can't just put 2.3 Houstonians, or 6.5 million Harris County people, on the road.  Which communities would we evacuate?  ALL neighborhoods are flooding.  If you went to Austin, Austin is flooding.

——

 I note weather models were showing 48 inches of rain around the Houston area days ago….  Is “disbelieving” an excuse for not planning?  But he’s right:  even a multi-day attempted evacuation of millions of people would have been a nightmare, with huge numbers of people becoming trapped in their cars.
___

Edit: "People wondering why no evacuation order. This is largely why. Hurricane Rita 2005. Dozens died IN this traffic #Houston "
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/901927308247920641
Photo of stalled traffic from Hurricane Rita in 2005 at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

Harvey's forecast of 50" in five days is near the theoretical maximum rainfall event possible in U.S.
PMP = "Probable Maximum Precipitation"
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/901839161908379648

"To reiterate, if the forecast verifies this would rival an all-time U.S. storm total rainfall record. #houstonflood #Harvey "
https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/901837570660761601

[Sigmetnow]

"View of downtown Houston right now, from Instagram"
https://mobile.twitter.com/_cingraham/status/901838744751181824

[Sigmetnow]

NWS Houston:  Harvey's rainfall in Houston "has exceeded that of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) in almost half the time (2-3 vs 5 days)"

[Sigmetnow]

Latest models: meandering #Harvey to bring ADDITIONAL 20-30 inch to #Houston (total 50+). Genuinely horrifying scenario. #TXwx #Houstonflood
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/901860268883329024

[Sigmetnow]

Houston's development boom, reduction of wetlands leave region flood prone #HurricaneHarvey #houfloods #Harvey2017
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Houston-s-development-boom-and-reduction-of-8403838.php 

https://twitter.com/rachaelgleason/status/901466061224247298

[A-Team]

Houston's development boom, reduction of wetlands leave region flood prone

Flooding comes as no surprise to Houston; it's been a steadily worsening problem for decades. Synopsis of June 2001 Allison and lessons not learned:

https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/harvey

https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/ outspoken science denier: head of flood control district

Ongoing subsidence and impermeable soil development:

Subsidence occurs when groundwater levels decrease in unconsolidated confined aquifers. When the
potentiometric-surface declines, hydraulic pressure decreases, which creates a vertical load on the
skeletal matrix of the sediments in the aquifer and adjacent confining units. Most aquifers are
heterogeneous and contain an assortment of clay layers and sand layers. Clay layers are usually more
affected by decreasing water levels than sand layers. Sand layers are more transmissive and allow water
to pass through more easily. Clay layers have a low permeability and dewater more slowly than the sand
layers. When a load is applied, the individual grains of the clay layers realign themselves to be
perpendicular to the vertical force. This causes the clay layers to decrease in porosity, decrease in
groundwater storage capacity, and compact. The amount of vertical stress, the hydraulic conductivity of
the layers, and the thickness of the layers determine how much the layers compress. Approximately 90
percent of this compaction is permanent….

This study found that water management, including the creation of the Harris-Galveston Coastal
Subsidence District, has helped Harris County increase groundwater levels since 1973. Houston has
especially seen a large increase in water levels since 1973. However, this increase in groundwater levels
only slowed the rate of compaction. Additionally, the area of lowest water levels in Harris County has
shifted to be northwest of Houston and this area is experiencing a relatively large amount of
compaction. The maps created for 2011 show subsidence has increased across Harris County since 1973. http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/maidment/giswr2012/TermPaper/Tigges.pdf

Videos of gushering storm sewer lines -- and reminders not to wade in murky water as manhole covers may be gone -- raises the question what is happening to civic infrastructure -- notably the storm water, sewage water, water treatment plant, and drinking water distribution systems -- and what will be involved in recovery.

The City of Houston Public Works and Engineering Department provides many of the basic services that affect the daily lives of everyone who lives and works in Houston. Primarily, the department is responsible for all the things we take for granted on a daily basis: the administration, planning, maintenance, construction management and technical engineering of the City's infrastructure.

This includes the production and distribution of over 146 billion gallons of water per year and the treatment of over 90 billion gallons per year of wastewater. That is enough to fill the Astrodome four times per day with fresh water and over twice per day with wastewater. It also includes the maintenance of the City's over 16,000 lane miles of streets, over 60,000 stormwater manholes, over 100,000 stormwater inlets, over 1,100,000 street name and traffic control signs, over 17,000 freeway and under bridge light fixtures, over 50,000 fire hydrants and traffic signals at over 2,450 intersections.

https://www.publicworks.houstontx.gov
http://verify.rebuildhouston.org/prod/mydrain.htm impermeable surface map

[Sigmetnow]

First responders in boats steer through heavy flooding in Dickinson, Texas, to rescue people as #Harvey turned streets into rivers.
https://twitter.com/ABCWorldNews/status/901895179799588866
Short video clips at the link.

Dickinson I45 bridge where evacuees by the thousands continue to wait for transportation to shelters after rescue @KHOU @wfaachannel8
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/901895691953459203

[A-Team]

Here's classic federal flood management at FEMA -- maps that severely downplay the 100 and 500 year flood risks (thus allowing an insurance subsidy and so development). Note the substantial disconnect between actual homes that flooded and the risk map. (PS don't expect these maps to be updated after Harvey.)

https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/ original maps

[jai mitchell]

Through sunday morning and forecast to Thursday 

[Sigmetnow]

Mike Bettes, reporting for The Weather Channel from Dickinson, Texas:  The water is too high for trucks, now.  We need boats.

15 people rescued from flooded assisted living facility
Fifteen senior citizens were rescued from a Dickinson assisted living community, hours after a viral photo showing them sitting in waist-deep water went viral.  Dickinson emergency management coordinator David Popoff confirmed the rescue.
http://www.galvnews.com/news/free/article_e1ffff8e-435d-5c78-ab46-57d6bc7dc6a5.html

Coast Guard flyover reveals stunning scope of Harvey flooding. Everything is underwater.
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/901920850647154689
Brief video at the link.

Edit:  for those who are worrying:  yes, the elder community's cats were rescued, too!
https://patch.com/texas/across-tx/s-o-s-photo-saves-hurricane-harvey-trapped-nursing-home-elderly

[Sigmetnow]

Hurricane Center now says #Harvey may drift back over Gulf, restrengthen slightly, & make 2nd landfall near Houston
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/27/catastrophic-flooding-underway-in-houston-as-harvey-lingers-over-texas/

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/901927760700035072

[TerryM]

Dr. Mann, with some connections.
https://www.facebook.com/MichaelMannScientist/posts/1515449771844553

[Sigmetnow]

When Harvey leaves Texas, it will further impact Louisiana.

Life-threatening flooding may develop in the Lake Charles area overnight into tomorrow as heavy rain increases.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/901927308247920641

[Sigmetnow]

The city of Dallas, Texas -- 250 miles from the Gulf coast -- has been asked by the State of Texas to open its Convention Center to host Gulf Coast evacuees.

City prepares Dallas Convention Center to take in evacuees
http://www.dallascitynews.net/city-prepares-dallas-convention-center-take-evacuees

[jai mitchell]

Coast Guard flyover reveals stunning scope of Harvey flooding. Everything is underwater.
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/901920850647154689
Brief video at the link.

Those levels are going to go up an additional 6-10 feet.

[Sigmetnow]

Two-day rainfall around Houston is now near or above 20" nearly everywhere. Another 6-15" tonight, mostly to the north of the city.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901957320569061377

[Sigmetnow]

NWS WPC:  Flood threat spreading farther east in Louisiana. Stay vigilant. #Harvey
https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/901936411548549121

[Sigmetnow]

No electricity, no sewerage, limited communications. First responders attempting to cap natural gas leaks.

City officials say it is not safe in Rockport, Texas, do not stay and do not return anytime soon
https://mobile.twitter.com/cnn/status/901948214512930819
Video clip at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

Southwest Airlines launches airlift to rescue stranded Houston customers

(CNN) Southwest Airlines has launched a humanitarian rescue mission to airlift more than 500 of its customers out of closed Houston Hobby Airport Sunday, according to airline and US government sources with knowledge of the operation.

The Southwest customers were stranded inside the airport when the FAA closed it earlier Sunday morning. All roads to and from the airport were also closed. It was unclear how many others were stuck at the airport.

The rescue mission underscores the severity of Hurricane Harvey's impact on the Houston area.

Five of the airline's stranded Boeing 737s are scheduled to fly out of the flooded airport Sunday evening back to Love Field in Dallas, according to one of the sources.
...
The airline received clearance from the Federal Aviation Administration to operate out of the closed airport, according to the two sources. Hobby Airport is expected to remain closed to all non-emergency air traffic until August 30 at the earliest, according to the FAA.

Without working airport lights at Hobby Airport, the Southwest aircraft are going to have to move quickly. ...

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/08/27/us/southwest-humanitarian-airlift-hobby-airport/index.html

[Sigmetnow]

BREAKING:  Lake Conroe exceeds full level. Controlled releases of water beginning. #khou11
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/901681828574220288
Details at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

 Photos at the links.

THIS IS (WAS) HIGHWAY 59 at Elgin near downtown. It is NOW a river. We are on the overpass. It's mindblowing. #KHOU11
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/901971070730764289

My friend and neighbor, Raul Ramos, sent me this stunning pic: This is I-45 near downtown Houston
https://mobile.twitter.com/mannynyt/status/901861834562691073

Avoid 288. Both directions are ... under 6-10 feet under water. #khou11
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/901938226914570241

[pileus]

The news is getting grimmer out of Houston late this evening.  A very intense band went through and is pushing some of the larger bayous over the edge.  Calls for evacuation going out in addition to the planned water releases.  We likely awake to even worse imagery tomorrow.

[Pmt111500]

Since republicans do not trust science of climate change, there could be a system that would limit the expenses in disaster relief in these situations. Too bad you can't shoot the storms increased by climate change, then Texas would likely to be safe with their natural murder rate. This is an entirely normal storm according to their elected politicians. Do not believe the images sent out (the chinese hoax continues)

[Sigmetnow]

Chief Art Acevad posted a video of floodwaters from his car last night.  "This is a part of Houston that never floods."
https://twitter.com/ArtAcevedo/status/902000755669917696

Unbelievable Before & After of the flooding on Buffalo Bayou in #Houston from #Harvey. (Via streetreporter on Youtube)
https://twitter.com/ReaganMatt/status/901913118078640135

[Sigmetnow]

Radar loop from last night:
This is not what anyone wants to see. Up to 5" per hour rates now rotating into the Houston area. #houwx #Harvey
https://twitter.com/diabaticpv/status/901983471580712960

Harvey update, 10pm CDT:
NHC reiterates 50" storm-total rainfall fcst for parts of Texas including Houston, center to move back over Gulf.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/902008906414661633

Key messages for #Harvey advisory 31
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902010095109677056