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Csnavywx

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #50 on: August 23, 2017, 08:15:15 PM »
The Euro's track is way worse. It essentially pulls an Allison with more favorable conditions.

Grubbegrabben

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #51 on: August 23, 2017, 10:23:53 PM »
Forecast for Houston/Texas from yr.no. Idk how good the hour by hour rainfall forecast is for such an event but it seems like that record from 1989 could be broken.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #52 on: August 23, 2017, 11:05:12 PM »
"12Z GFS printing out absurd rainfall totals on the TX Gulf Coast from #Harvey.
30"+[760mm+] in 24 hours, and 4 FEET [1,220mm] of rain in the next 7 days"
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/900413604440285185

Hurricane and tropical storm watches are up for the TX coast.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #53 on: August 23, 2017, 11:06:38 PM »
"Before everyone goes hunting for the highest model QPF, here's a history lesson on observed MAX rainfall from TCs (data by @DRmetwatch)"
https://twitter.com/whatdoweseehere/status/900402727645216768

In inches [25.4 mm].
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #54 on: August 23, 2017, 11:14:47 PM »
Harvey set to rapidly strengthen before Texas landfall.
Gulf of Mexico is among the warmest ocean basins in the world.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #55 on: August 24, 2017, 12:13:32 AM »
New Orleans officials: don't panic, we're more prepared for rain than we were a month ago. #Harvey

Eric Holthaus:  If #Harvey's track shifts even 100 miles east, things are going to be interesting in New Orleans.
http://grist.org/briefly/new-orleans-is-now-planning-to-evacuate-the-city-if-a-heavy-rainstorm-comes/amp/

NWS New Orleans:  Here is the latest on Tropical Depression #Harvey. A lot of uncertainty & main concern right now is threat for heavy rain. #LAwx #MSwx
https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/900475879926706176
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #56 on: August 24, 2017, 12:25:01 AM »
"It has been 3266 days since the last hurricane made landfall in Texas (Ike-2008).  #Harvey"
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/900478134666919936
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #57 on: August 24, 2017, 01:07:07 AM »
A Texas-size flood threatens the Gulf Coast, and we’re so not ready
... Floods like the one in the worst Harvey forecasts have come at an increasingly frequent pace. Since the 1950s, the Houston area has seen a 167 percent increase in heavy downpours. At least four rainstorms so severe they would occur only once in 100 years under normal conditions have hit the area since May 2015. With a warmer climate comes faster evaporation and a greater capacity for thunderstorms to produce epic deluges.

Houston has been criticized for unchecked development in its swampy suburbs, which has exacerbated its flooding problem by funneling water along streets and parking lots toward older, lower-income neighborhoods. Just inland, the rapidly-growing corridor of Texas hill country between San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas is sometimes referred to as “flash flood alley,” an increasingly paved area that often sees torrential rainstorms channeled along fast-rising creeks and streams.

Recent rains haven’t been kind to Louisiana, either. Last August, a 500-year rainstorm hit Baton Rouge, Louisiana. And a storm that hit New Orleans earlier this month was so intense locals called it a “mini-Katrina.” Ensuing floods revealed the city’s critically important drainage pump system was partially inoperable, and officials are now contemplating an unprecedented evacuation plan in case the predicted heavy rains materialize. An eastward shift in Harvey’s trajectory by 100 miles or so could force that difficult decision.

Next Tuesday happens to be the 12th anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Katrina, a storm that many people in the region are still recovering from.

Seven months into the Trump administration, key federal disaster relief positions are still unoccupied: for example, an administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service. The new FEMA director, Brock Long, was confirmed in late June, three weeks after the start of this year’s hurricane season.

In addition, Trump proposed significant cuts to disaster response agencies and denied emergency funding appeals in several states during his first months in office. A troubled federal flood insurance program covers just one-sixth of Houston residents.

If Harvey’s rains hit the coast with anywhere near the force of the most alarming predictions, we’d be in for disaster. And judging by how New Orleans and Houston have handled recent rains, coupled with the state of federal disaster relief, we’re not ready for it.
http://grist.org/article/a-texas-size-flood-threatens-the-gulf-coast-and-were-so-not-ready/
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #58 on: August 24, 2017, 01:16:54 AM »
A Texas-size flood threatens the Gulf Coast, and we’re so not ready
... Floods like the one in the worst Harvey forecasts have come at an increasingly frequent pace. Since the 1950s, the Houston area has seen a 167 percent increase in heavy downpours. At least four rainstorms so severe they would occur only once in 100 years under normal conditions have hit the area since May 2015. With a warmer climate comes faster evaporation and a greater capacity for thunderstorms to produce epic deluges.

Houston has been criticized for unchecked development in its swampy suburbs, which has exacerbated its flooding problem by funneling water along streets and parking lots toward older, lower-income neighborhoods. Just inland, the rapidly-growing corridor of Texas hill country between San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas is sometimes referred to as “flash flood alley,” an increasingly paved area that often sees torrential rainstorms channeled along fast-rising creeks and streams.

Recent rains haven’t been kind to Louisiana, either. Last August, a 500-year rainstorm hit Baton Rouge, Louisiana. And a storm that hit New Orleans earlier this month was so intense locals called it a “mini-Katrina.” Ensuing floods revealed the city’s critically important drainage pump system was partially inoperable, and officials are now contemplating an unprecedented evacuation plan in case the predicted heavy rains materialize. An eastward shift in Harvey’s trajectory by 100 miles or so could force that difficult decision.

Next Tuesday happens to be the 12th anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Katrina, a storm that many people in the region are still recovering from.

Seven months into the Trump administration, key federal disaster relief positions are still unoccupied: for example, an administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service. The new FEMA director, Brock Long, was confirmed in late June, three weeks after the start of this year’s hurricane season.

In addition, Trump proposed significant cuts to disaster response agencies and denied emergency funding appeals in several states during his first months in office. A troubled federal flood insurance program covers just one-sixth of Houston residents.

If Harvey’s rains hit the coast with anywhere near the force of the most alarming predictions, we’d be in for disaster. And judging by how New Orleans and Houston have handled recent rains, coupled with the state of federal disaster relief, we’re not ready for it.
http://grist.org/article/a-texas-size-flood-threatens-the-gulf-coast-and-were-so-not-ready/

It's always the least among us that suffer the most in these situations, and this will be no different.  More barriers to evacuation, fewer options to go to, and what little they have mostly unprotected and uninsured.  It will hard to avoid a devastating human toll if the current forecasts verify.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #59 on: August 24, 2017, 01:53:08 PM »
Michael Ventrice:  #Harvey is rapidly intensifying. The storm is likely to achieve Hurricane intensity in a matter of hours, a full day earlier than NHC fcst
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/900684839459991552

Radar loop at the link.
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #60 on: August 24, 2017, 02:45:34 PM »
Michael Ventrice:  #Harvey is rapidly intensifying. The storm is likely to achieve Hurricane intensity in a matter of hours, a full day earlier than NHC fcst
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/900684839459991552

Radar loop at the link.

Looks like it could easily reach high end Cat 2 or even 3 status.  That greatly enchances the surge and along with the extreme precipitation is really bad news.

"And here's the latest 12Z guidance for #Harvey: SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  76% is   6.2 times sample mean (11.5%)"

https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/900697435189727232

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #61 on: August 24, 2017, 03:27:38 PM »
"Latest (06Z) GFS still showing catastrophic rainfall of 20-30"+ over multiple days after #Harvey landfall.
Please prepare, Texas & Louisiana"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900696865032687617

"Excellent advice from a trusted meteorologist in the insurance industry...”:
"Advice for those in #Harvey path:
1) Breathe
2) Take photos of your stuff
3) Prepare for worst; hope for best
4) Obey evacuation orders"
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/900709918155689984

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FishOutofWater

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #62 on: August 24, 2017, 05:35:22 PM »
Harvey is intensifying rapidly and NHC officially forecasts it to reach major hurricane strength before landfall, then stall over coastal Texas. Extreme flooding is likely. A destructive storm surge will be followed by days of heavy rain.

A major disaster is developing on the twelfth anniversary of Katrina.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #63 on: August 24, 2017, 05:44:49 PM »
Harvey is intensifying rapidly and NHC officially forecasts it to reach major hurricane strength before landfall, then stall over coastal Texas. Extreme flooding is likely. A destructive storm surge will be followed by days of heavy rain.

A major disaster is developing on the twelfth anniversary of Katrina.
Just as well FEMA was put back together after Katrina as an effective US Agency.
Not climate change, merely an extreme weather event. Rick Perry and Scott Pruitt have said so and so it must be true. OK?
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rboyd

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #64 on: August 24, 2017, 06:35:56 PM »
From the NOAA discussion of Harvey on their site "With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite concerning". The scientific equivalent of "oh shit!"

The rate of intensification, driven by the warm Gulf of Mexico, seems to be catching NOAA out. Could be a sign of things to come, also harder to argue that its just natural variability.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2017, 06:42:45 PM by rboyd »

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #65 on: August 24, 2017, 06:57:51 PM »
From the NOAA discussion of Harvey on their site "With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite concerning". The scientific equivalent of "oh shit!"

The rate of intensification, driven by the warm Gulf of Mexico, seems to be catching NOAA out. Could be a sign of things to come, also harder to argue that its just natural variability.
This very nasty beast is not a great big weather system that gradually gained energy as it wandered across the Atlantic from West Africa. After nearly dying on the Yucatan peninsula, its energy is all from the Gulf picked up - just like that, a local event. Methinks the NHC will be pondering this event for some time to come
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #66 on: August 24, 2017, 07:40:39 PM »
Harvey is now a hurricane, with 80mph (130kph) winds. 

"@NHC_Atlantic now forecasting surge inundation up to 10' with #Harvey. And there will be waves on top.  Getting extremely serious."
https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/900738525787815936

"Latest (12Z) GFS shows extremely heavy rainfall from Hurricane #Harvey encroaching further inland. Austin & San Antonio should be alert."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900773641851248641

Advisories, messages, storm surge inundation maps and more from the National Hurricane Center:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Harvey
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #67 on: August 24, 2017, 07:48:01 PM »
Eric Holthaus: 
#Harvey is in rare company. Only 11 major hurricanes (Cat 3+) have hit south Texas since records began in 1850. The last was Bret in 1999.

Since 1999, the Texas coastline has added ~1.5M people.
The port in Corpus Christi is now the country's 4th largest. This is what it ships:

Parts of the Texas coastline, particularly near Houston, are some of the fastest growing places in the country, +50% or more since 2000.

Since 1999, when last major hurricane hit Texas, there's been a rebirth of the state's oil industry. Those facilities are at risk this week.

Basically, Texas is a totally different place than the last time a storm like #Harvey hit. Lots of new people & out-of-practice natives. 
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900751589769568256
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #68 on: August 24, 2017, 07:53:01 PM »
"Continued Rapid Intensification of #Harvey is likely from now until landfall Friday night in TX.
~10x more likely than in a "typical" storm"

"As referenced in the NHC discussion, the SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities for #Harvey are remarkably high.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900749046817542144
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #69 on: August 24, 2017, 07:56:11 PM »
In a special 12p CDT update, NHC boosts Hurricane Harvey's landfall forecast:
High end Cat 3
Storm surge up to 12 feet
Rainfall up to 30"

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #70 on: August 24, 2017, 08:19:30 PM »
"#BREAKING: Mayor Joe McComb asks that people of the city of Corpus Christi evacuate voluntarily."
https://twitter.com/emilyhamiltontv/status/900782095068430336

Corpus Christi is on the wide bay at the "3.75" line, south of the worst inundation forecast on this map:
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #71 on: August 24, 2017, 08:35:44 PM »
Uh-oh. :o

Briana Whitney, reporter:

"I think people are smart enough to make their evacuation decisions & they don't need the government telling them what to do." -Mayor McComb"

""No specific shelters set up in town. We are asking residents to evacuate." -Corpus Christi Fire Chief Robert Rocha"

""I don't know when emergency operations will end at this point."
-Mayor Joe McComb"

https://twitter.com/brianawhitney/status/900783084530012160
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #72 on: August 24, 2017, 08:49:55 PM »
Uh-oh. :o

Briana Whitney, reporter:

"I think people are smart enough to make their evacuation decisions & they don't need the government telling them what to do." -Mayor McComb"

""No specific shelters set up in town. We are asking residents to evacuate." -Corpus Christi Fire Chief Robert Rocha"

""I don't know when emergency operations will end at this point."
-Mayor Joe McComb"

https://twitter.com/brianawhitney/status/900783084530012160

SE and Gulf residents have always been stubborn and often ride out storms, but this is a textbook example of when the govt should be telling people what to do.  A lot of people there haven't seen a storm of this magnitude in their lifetimes. This has the potential to quickly overwhelm local and federal agencies from SE Texas through coastal Louisiana.  Could be another, "Heck of a job Brownie" moment, with a similar or worse toll.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #73 on: August 24, 2017, 09:14:37 PM »
”Latest (12Z) Euro model rapidly intensifies Hurricane #Harvey, makes landfall, takes it back to sea, rapidly intensifies again to Houston.”

“To be honest, this would be a really, really bad thing for New Orleans, which would get the "dirty" side of the second landfall. Heavy rain.”

“Remember, no power = no AC [Air Conditioning] #Harvey”

“Corpus Christi buses now running free for anyone who wishes to be evacuated to San Antonio. Folks - this is as real as it gets #Harvey”

“FEMA has pre-positioned 250,000 meals, 77,000 liters of water and 4,000 tarps ahead of landfall by #Harvey”
“It won't be enough.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900795372884426752


“Potential flood disaster: Like GFS, European model forecasts large area 17-32" of rain thru Wed in eastern Texas. wapo.st/2w0UhBc “
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/900789862755958786
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #74 on: August 24, 2017, 09:51:26 PM »
Update:

City of Corpus Christi:  "Mayor McComb strongly encourages evacuation, especially the low lying areas of Area A and B as seen in the map below (pink and yellow area)."
https://twitter.com/cityofcc/status/900793570747195393
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #75 on: August 24, 2017, 11:56:29 PM »
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.

Here are the key messages for intensifying #Hurricane #Harvey for the 4 pm CDT Advisory. hurricanes.gov
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #76 on: August 24, 2017, 11:59:57 PM »
Dallas, Texas is 250 miles (400km) from the coast.

City of Dallas:  #HurricaneHarvey The City of Dallas is prepared to offer shelters if needed.
https://twitter.com/cityofdallas/status/900788827232628736
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Ned W

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #77 on: August 25, 2017, 12:45:31 AM »
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #78 on: August 25, 2017, 03:23:54 AM »
Never mind the octopus in the parking garage....

"Gators and flooding advice via @txgatorsquad: Expect them to be displaced. Simply looking for higher ground. Leave alone until water recedes"
https://twitter.com/fbcso/status/900793654192869376

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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #79 on: August 25, 2017, 03:44:39 AM »
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

The event that first inspired my interest in weather was a 22 inch rainfall in under 36 hours, and being stranded in the flood waters for days.  Luckily the house was elevated. Fun as a youngster, but would not want to go through anything like it as an old timer.  I have family in Corpus that are currently watching the track and have not yet evacuated.  The NE quad should spare CC the worst, but it's a roll of the dice relying on a track to verify.  At some point the weather takes over and it's too late to leave.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #80 on: August 25, 2017, 10:09:54 AM »
Harvey is now category 2:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/250456.shtml

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 95.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #81 on: August 25, 2017, 11:40:37 AM »
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

The event that first inspired my interest in weather was a 22 inch rainfall in under 36 hours, and being stranded in the flood waters for days.  Luckily the house was elevated. Fun as a youngster, but would not want to go through anything like it as an old timer.  I have family in Corpus that are currently watching the track and have not yet evacuated.  The NE quad should spare CC the worst, but it's a roll of the dice relying on a track to verify.  At some point the weather takes over and it's too late to leave.
NHC say that when this beast makes landfall it is likely to stall, i.e. rain up to 5 days ( and possible multiple storm surges ?).  Methinks I would be telling family to lock up, check the drains, fix the storm shutters and move inland. A nice hotel would be better than the floor in an emergency shelter.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #82 on: August 25, 2017, 12:13:44 PM »
NHC Update, 4am CDT:
Hurricane #Harvey is now a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane, expected to reach Cat 3 before landfall later today.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901005763371335680

The latest @NWS rainfall forecast for Hurricane #Harvey maxes out the scale.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/900977411390545920

“I don't think I have ever seen a heavier rain forecast from @NWSWPC in my life- the size of the 20+ inches of rain area is staggering”
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/901009587368849409


Dr. Rick Knabb, The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, and former head of the National Hurricane Center, shares a special message for Texas residents regarding #HurricaneHarvey
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/900838671775133696


South Florida will also be hit hard!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #83 on: August 25, 2017, 01:26:45 PM »
Ryan Maue:  Up to 35" [889mm] rainfall forecast update by @NWSWPC from Hurricane #Harvey
Long duration flooding disaster imminent near coast & inland.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/901033991733735424
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #84 on: August 25, 2017, 01:36:03 PM »
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

The event that first inspired my interest in weather was a 22 inch rainfall in under 36 hours, and being stranded in the flood waters for days.  Luckily the house was elevated. Fun as a youngster, but would not want to go through anything like it as an old timer.  I have family in Corpus that are currently watching the track and have not yet evacuated.  The NE quad should spare CC the worst, but it's a roll of the dice relying on a track to verify.  At some point the weather takes over and it's too late to leave.
NHC say that when this beast makes landfall it is likely to stall, i.e. rain up to 5 days ( and possible multiple storm surges ?).  Methinks I would be telling family to lock up, check the drains, fix the storm shutters and move inland. A nice hotel would be better than the floor in an emergency shelter.

Yes, have already done that.  I would have departed days ago. Adults, especially of the hardy coastal variety, can only be reasoned with so much.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #85 on: August 25, 2017, 03:24:58 PM »
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

The event that first inspired my interest in weather was a 22 inch rainfall in under 36 hours, and being stranded in the flood waters for days.  Luckily the house was elevated. Fun as a youngster, but would not want to go through anything like it as an old timer.  I have family in Corpus that are currently watching the track and have not yet evacuated.  The NE quad should spare CC the worst, but it's a roll of the dice relying on a track to verify.  At some point the weather takes over and it's too late to leave.
NHC say that when this beast makes landfall it is likely to stall, i.e. rain up to 5 days ( and possible multiple storm surges ?).  Methinks I would be telling family to lock up, check the drains, fix the storm shutters and move inland. A nice hotel would be better than the floor in an emergency shelter.

Yes, have already done that.  I would have departed days ago. Adults, especially of the hardy coastal variety, can only be reasoned with so much.
Trouble is, NHC have to give warnings a lot of times about possibilities that don't end up happening, so the "cry-wolf" syndrome takes root. Hope all goes well with the family.
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TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #86 on: August 25, 2017, 03:57:22 PM »
I've been following at Weather Underground. This sounds like a real monster.
A grandson lives in Houston, but we found out he's been in Seattle for a week visiting his father. A huge relief to my wife.


946.6mb and falling is the latest I've heard.


Terry

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #87 on: August 25, 2017, 06:25:49 PM »
NHC Update, 4pm CDT:
Hurricane Harvey still forecast to make landfall near Corpus Christi, TX as a high-end Cat 3 w/ up to 35" of rainfall.
I've been in two 7-inch rainstorms and those were more than enough for me. I can't imagine five times that much rain.

The event that first inspired my interest in weather was a 22 inch rainfall in under 36 hours, and being stranded in the flood waters for days.  Luckily the house was elevated. Fun as a youngster, but would not want to go through anything like it as an old timer.  I have family in Corpus that are currently watching the track and have not yet evacuated.  The NE quad should spare CC the worst, but it's a roll of the dice relying on a track to verify.  At some point the weather takes over and it's too late to leave.
NHC say that when this beast makes landfall it is likely to stall, i.e. rain up to 5 days ( and possible multiple storm surges ?).  Methinks I would be telling family to lock up, check the drains, fix the storm shutters and move inland. A nice hotel would be better than the floor in an emergency shelter.

Yes, have already done that.  I would have departed days ago. Adults, especially of the hardy coastal variety, can only be reasoned with so much.
Just read nhc discussion #21. I really hope your family have left or are really well prepared.
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #88 on: August 25, 2017, 06:26:17 PM »
One thing the NHC and NWS forecast offices have gotten better at over the years is the use of distinct and sharper language to describe the threat and risks of extreme events.  You see a lot more "devastating impacts", "risk of injury or death" verbiage than in the past.  Connects back to the conservative scientists implications theme, and wholly appropriate as the risks are immediate and generally clear and present.

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #89 on: August 25, 2017, 06:37:08 PM »
One thing the NHC and NWS forecast offices have gotten better at over the years is the use of distinct and sharper language to describe the threat and risks of extreme events.  You see a lot more "devastating impacts", "risk of injury or death" verbiage than in the past.  Connects back to the conservative scientists implications theme, and wholly appropriate as the risks are immediate and generally clear and present.

That, and paths like the following, that show more than just the range of the expected path of the center.


pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #90 on: August 25, 2017, 06:58:35 PM »
Very sobering summary from the Corpus Christi, TX forecast office

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #91 on: August 25, 2017, 08:14:27 PM »
From the Oil and Gas thread:

With a six-foot rise in water, all six of Corpus Christi's refineries would flood.
Hurricane Harvey could bring twice that.


Hurricane Harvey aims for the Texas fracking boom’s favorite port
... Part of that concern is driven by where the storm is expected to make landfall. Corpus Christi, a critical port for the Texas oil and gas industry, is also one of the most vulnerable places in America when it comes to coastal flooding. An analysis earlier this year by the South Texas Economic Development Center predicted that 92 square miles of the Corpus Christi metro area would flood with a six-foot rise in water, including all six of the city’s refineries.

Harvey could bring up to twice that, with as much as 12 feet of storm surge potentially swamping refinery infrastructure, including huge tanks of crude oil, with saltwater.

As Emily Atkin writes in the New Republic, the pollution consequences of the storm could be immense. Harvey’s floodwaters could seep into massive underground gasoline storage facilities, potentially dislodging and floating the tanks.

Above ground, the port also has the capacity to store up to 3.2 million barrels of crude oil, infrastructure which could buckle and leak during the storm. Bloomberg reported that several refineries are filling their tanks with as much oil as possible before the storm hits to try to help weigh them down.
...
http://grist.org/article/hurricane-harvey-aims-for-the-texas-fracking-booms-favorite-port/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #92 on: August 25, 2017, 08:19:13 PM »
Eric Fisher: Meanwhile,  we can't sleep on this area of disturbed weather near Florida. May become #Irma and track near New England next week.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/901085987790520321
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #93 on: August 25, 2017, 08:28:29 PM »
NWS:  View all tide gauges currently in high water condition at this address: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterconditions.html#high

NWS:  Tide gauges near Corpus Christi & Port Aransas indicate storm surge inundation of 1-2ft is already occurring https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8775237  #Harvey

https://twitter.com/nws/status/901136658199871489
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #94 on: August 25, 2017, 08:47:24 PM »
If the latest projections verify, this could easily surpass Sandy and give Katrina a run for costliest US natural disaster.  Whether is becomes a 4 digit fatality event will depend on a lot of luck and fast actions on the ground.  Of course the track and intensity could change, but it's not looking good.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #95 on: August 25, 2017, 08:57:33 PM »
And here's the Euro model.  :o

Hot off the press: new Euro suggests nearly 50" [1,270mm] of rainfall across SE #Texas in less than 5 days time...unreal #Harvey #Hurricane
https://twitter.com/met_khinz/status/901147550740336640
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #96 on: August 25, 2017, 08:57:52 PM »
"ECMWF model output pushing 60-inches of rainfall over next 8 days as #Harvey meanders thru SE Texas. Time to abandon ship. "

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/901155459872292865

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #97 on: August 25, 2017, 09:07:42 PM »
NHC Atlantic Ops: #Harvey is now a category 3 #hurricane with 120-mph winds & a pressure of 943 mb (27.85") See the latest advisory at hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/901156338549620738
(Radar loop at the link.)

GOES satellite imagery:  https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Friday afternoon GOES IR satellite image below.
https://twitter.com/irisheagle/status/901156967464546305
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #98 on: August 25, 2017, 09:08:43 PM »
"ECMWF model output pushing 60-inches of rainfall over next 8 days
Have yr family left? Roads all clogged up with traffic now.
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #99 on: August 25, 2017, 09:28:48 PM »
"ECMWF model output pushing 60-inches of rainfall over next 8 days
Have yr family left? Roads all clogged up with traffic now.

Thanks for asking. No communication since late last night.  My aunt intended to stay if the eye and NE quad remained to the north of CC, but all of that rain is going to be a problem for anyone that remains.