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Artful Dodger

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #850 on: September 12, 2017, 10:30:57 AM »
It is a sad truth that the USA dodged the bullet, by only taking a $290 billion hit from Harvey & Irma.  We (the USA) are playing Russian Roulette with hurricanes, which (as Hansen warned in 'Storms of My Grandchildren') cannot end well

Hi ASLR.

Thank-you for taking a moment to reply to my brief comment. I surely appreciate all the work you've done helping provide accurate coverage of these increasingly dangerous storms. Indeed, Hansen's book has been on my mind these last 2 weeks as we watch these unfolding disasters.

A childhood friend of mine moved to Sugarland, TX (west suburbs of Houston) about 20 years ago and was flooded out last week by Harvey.  I recall him telling me about 5 years ago that 'there might be something to this global warming stuff'.

In a sense, it is the trap all wealthy nations fall into: unwilling to change anything in the short run, but willing to risk everything in the long run. Sad.

Indeed, the Denier-in-Chief will soon be golfing at his lightly-touched Palm Beach pair-a-dice, oblivious to the growing risk surrounding it.

I guess that makes us (collectively) his fossil fools.   :'(
Cheers!
Lodger

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #851 on: September 12, 2017, 02:50:09 PM »
Daniel B

I felt a bit insensitive asking this earlier but since we are now on the explanations

Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis said

   
Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons)

    Mid-latitude Storms
    Model projections show fewer mid-latitude storms averaged over each hemisphere, associated with the poleward shift of the storm tracks that is particularly notable in the Southern Hemisphere, with lower central pressures for these poleward-shifted storms.


Is the prediction, "fewer mid-latitude storms", from 2007 still valid or have the changes in the jet stream due to Arctic warming changed the story?

Could this be true? In 2007 IPCC predicted fewer but more powerful hurricanes but now the jet stream weakness allows more to start.  I suppose the next few years will tell - or climate science a bit beyond me.

It may still be too early to conclude anything.  However, the following graphs do not support these claims. and neither do the number.




Much has been made of two major hurricanes hitting the U.S. coast this year.  Yet, historically, the U.S. has gotten hit by a major once every two years.  That was more frequent in years past; once every 1.5 years from 1940-1970, and less frequently today.  Interestingly, from 2000-1016, 7 majors hit the U.S., all within a 13-month period in 2004-05. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #852 on: September 12, 2017, 03:39:59 PM »
“And it goes without saying that there will never be another Hurricane Irma.  The World Met. Org. will retire the name at the end of the year”
    https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907445740032552960


Final summary of some of the meteorological records/milestones set by #Irma has been posted:
https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf
    https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907449528466464770
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crandles

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #853 on: September 12, 2017, 03:49:05 PM »
Maybe it is too soon to assess effects of Harvey on oil production and consumption, but latest short term Energy outlook, doesn't seem to be showing any effects from Harvey.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.cfm

Too soon to tell or no significant effect?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #854 on: September 12, 2017, 03:49:58 PM »
4-hour loop of experimental GOES-16 imagery shows remnants of Irma over the Midsouth early this morning
https://twitter.com/NWSMemphis/status/907583450126974976
GIF at the link.

Satellite shows power outages in Florida. Last night compared to normal. Note some clouds did cover some lights.
Courtesy NOAA JPSS/CIMSS
https://twitter.com/WCYB_Ricky/status/907286128448995328
Second and third images below.

7.2 million still without power from #Irma.  This is down about a million from the peak of the storm.
https://twitter.com/JacquiJerasTV/status/907582653406347264
Data at the link.

Jacksonville Sheriffs Office:
We hope the 356 people who had their lives saved yesterday will take evacuation orders more seriously in the future. #Irma #HurricaneIrma
https://twitter.com/JSOPIO/status/907578329146036224


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #855 on: September 12, 2017, 03:59:30 PM »
Over the next 5 days, here is the @NHC_Atlantic forecast track for Hurricane #Jose.
https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/907586724850802688
First image below.

Pasta sauce all warmed up and ready to go?  Great.  Here is your morning serving of 00Z GFS 'spaghetti' plot for #Jose.
https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/907585853396054017
Second image below.

But our attention is drawn to the inevitable scary outlier:
UKMET (which handled #Irma fairly well) continues to target #Florida with #Jose next weekend. Interests in FL should continue to monitor
https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/907586090546200576
Third image below.


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #856 on: September 12, 2017, 04:04:28 PM »
Manila floods as tropical depression slams Philippines
The storm came ashore in the province of Quezon with winds of only 60km/h, but the amount of rain it packed was phenomenal.

As the depression tracked west across Luzon island, Alabat was hit by 538 millimetres [21 inches] of rain, Ambulong 315mm and Tayabas 238mm. Manila recorded 200mm of rain, making some roads impassable.

The floodwater inundated homes and businesses, becoming neck-deep in places. Authorities ordered the evacuation of residents in some towns submerged by floodwater in Quezon and Laguna, where 13 people were reported missing.

The torrential rain also triggered a landslide in Taytay, a municipality just 20km from Manila, which killed at least two people according to local media. ...
http://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2017/09/manila-floods-tropical-depression-slams-philippines-170912093316483.html
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #857 on: September 12, 2017, 04:06:35 PM »
TFW ur Dodging a Bullet.


It is a sad truth that the USA dodged the bullet, by only taking a $290 billion hit from Harvey & Irma.  We (the USA) are playing Russian Roulette with hurricanes, which (as Hansen warned in 'Storms of My Grandchildren') cannot end well:

Title: "Hurricanes Harvey, Irma could cost US economy $290 billion, estimate says"

http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricanes-harvey-irma-cost-us-economy-290-billion/story?id=49761970

Extract: ""We believe the damage estimate from Irma to be about $100 billion — among the costliest hurricanes of all time. This amounts to 0.5 of a percentage point of the GDP of $19 trillion," Myers said. "We estimated that Hurricane Harvey is to be the costliest weather disaster in U.S. history, at $190 billion, or 1 full percentage point of the GDP.""


I have maintained for several years here that climate change will only be addressed when the disasters are so severe in the U.S. that people demand so. We are not there yet but cracks are showing.

http://crooksandliars.com/2017/09/no-one-major-networks-talking-about

We need more violent and devastating events to occur on a regular basis. Deaths from hurricanes cannot number in the dozens. They need to routinely number in the thousands. Coastal cities must not be left in a state of disrepair that may take a decade to repair. They must be rendered permanently uninhabitable. Wildfires mustn't burn through a summer season, destroying hundreds of homes. They need to burn continuously for a couple of years, burning multiple midsize communities to the ground. Droughts that decimate crops and necessitate water rationing are entirely inadequate. We need major cities to run completely out of water, requiring it to be trucked in.

Then we will see action.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #858 on: September 12, 2017, 04:16:11 PM »
@femaregion2 working with @US_GSAR2 to get life-saving supplies to VI on the SS Wright #hurricaneimra
https://twitter.com/FEMAregion3/status/907293366248984579
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crandles

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #859 on: September 12, 2017, 04:18:02 PM »

We need more violent and devastating events to occur on a regular basis.

Be careful what you wish for .....

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #860 on: September 12, 2017, 04:28:40 PM »

Could this be true? In 2007 IPCC predicted fewer but more powerful hurricanes but now the jet stream weakness allows more to start.  I suppose the next few years will tell - or climate science a bit beyond me.

fwiw
Atlantic:
Season_______ ACE______TS_____HU____MH
            
1950-2016___ 101.16____ 11.25___ 6.22__ 2.66
1979-2016___ 103.32____ 12.26___ 6.39__ 2.61
2006-2016____ 98.09____ 14.09___ 6.36__ 2.73
2005-2016___ 110.75____ 15.25___ 7.08__ 3.08

East Pacific:
Season   ACE   TS   HU   MH
            
1971-2016   129.96   16.52   9.30   4.48
1979-2016   132.55   16.82   9.32   4.58
2006-2016   129.36   17.55   9.73   4.91
2005-2016   126.58   17.33   9.50   4.67

If anything the numbers seem to be higher after 2005. Note that inclusion or exclusion of a single year (such as 2005) can have quite a large effect on the numbers.

The way you have presented this data likely understates the increase that has occurred since 1950. I would think that if the numbers were broken out in decades, the trend upwards would be more obvious although there might be some fluctuations, decade to decade.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #861 on: September 12, 2017, 04:29:13 PM »
Maybe it is too soon to assess effects of Harvey on oil production and consumption, but latest short term Energy outlook, doesn't seem to be showing any effects from Harvey.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.cfm

Too soon to tell or no significant effect?

That link may still be showing August 8 data? 

Oil tankers (in red) are once again flowing across the Gulf.  Given the oil glut before Irma, I doubt we'll see more than a blip in production.  I have not seen any stories warning of refinery damage causing huge cuts in fuel output.  As you say, it may be early yet.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #862 on: September 12, 2017, 04:35:08 PM »

We need more violent and devastating events to occur on a regular basis.

Be careful what you wish for .....

The sooner, the better.

We need a titanic shift in the politics of climate change and it needs to occur immediately. The longer this is delayed, the worse it will get. It is not enough for these disasters to hit Pakistan or Nepal. Most Americans don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves. The threats and actual damage from climate change must be horrific and very, very personal.

We need to have a barrier island with million dollar homes not simply damaged but washed completely away, carried out into the Atlantic, never to be seen again.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #863 on: September 12, 2017, 04:47:52 PM »
A childhood friend of mine moved to Sugarland, TX (west suburbs of Houston) about 20 years ago and was flooded out last week by Harvey.  I recall him telling me about 5 years ago that 'there might be something to this global warming stuff'.

In a sense, it is the trap all wealthy nations fall into: unwilling to change anything in the short run, but willing to risk everything in the long run. Sad.

Indeed, the Denier-in-Chief will soon be golfing at his lightly-touched Palm Beach pair-a-dice, oblivious to the growing risk surrounding it.

I guess that makes us (collectively) his fossil fools.   :'(


Lodger,

I hope you keep posting on our collective fossil foolishness  :o.

The linked CNN article focuses on the geographic politics of states (including Texas) where many jobs are still tied to a fossil fuel economy vs states (like the East & West Coasts) where jobs are tied to post-fossil fuel economies (including the 4th Industrial Revolution); as the reason that we might as well be shouting into a hurricane wind before the GOP will take appropriate political action.

Title: "Why Republicans are frozen on climate change"

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/12/politics/why-republicans-are-frozen-on-climate-change/index.html

Extract: "But more important than either of these factors may be the geographic divide. From Congress through the White House, the Republican Party now relies overwhelmingly on the states that are the most deeply invested in the existing fossil fuel economy -- and thus feel the most threatened by any initiative to reduce carbon emissions. That includes not only the states that produce the most fossil fuels like oil and coal, but also the Rust Belt states that consume large quantities of coal-fired electricity for manufacturing."

Best,
ASLR
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #864 on: September 12, 2017, 04:50:55 PM »
And before I am accused of not caring for others, I would like to say that the pictures of the damage are heartbreaking.

The fact is we are simply getting a taste of what is in store and everyone here except for our closeted trolls know this. (And I am not certain that they don't believe this. They might very well be on the payroll of the fossil fuel industry.)

The solution to climate change is political. Lets have a string of ridiculously bad years over the next decade so that we can get down to business.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #865 on: September 12, 2017, 05:07:21 PM »
<snip>

The solution to climate change is political. Lets have a string of ridiculously bad years over the next decade so that we can get down to business.

My feeling is that the world will get on board and switch to actively addressing climate change, well before the catastrophes you describe.  But disasters will happen anyway (because we waited too long to act aggressively), and that will be even more depressing.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #866 on: September 12, 2017, 05:08:39 PM »
Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Headlines in the @myrtlebeach newspapers yesterday as storm surge moved in... #IRMA
https://twitter.com/andysteinwx/status/907611224975622144
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #867 on: September 12, 2017, 05:14:01 PM »
Before and after satellite imagery show how #Irma stirred up the ocean and is causing runoff in South Florida
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907611357230624768
GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #868 on: September 12, 2017, 05:23:05 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #869 on: September 12, 2017, 05:29:11 PM »
San Francisco Bay, California

Why the #BayArea thunderstorms? Sufficient moisture, instability, & lift/dynamics due to a persistent upper-level low off the coast. #CAwx
https://twitter.com/SFmeteorologist/status/907625632934137856
GIF at the link.
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crandles

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #870 on: September 12, 2017, 05:30:26 PM »
The way you have presented this data likely understates the increase that has occurred since 1950. I would think that if the numbers were broken out in decades, the trend upwards would be more obvious although there might be some fluctuations, decade to decade.

I wanted to compare data after 2007 report (which probably didn't use 2005/2006? data). Not sure whether data prior to satelites ~1979 is consistent data so that was broken off.

But if you want it a different way:

Pacific Typoon basin is much more consistent with IPCC predictions.

Atlantic
Season   ACE_____ TS______ HU____ MH
1971-79   110.89   14.56   8.89     4.00
1980-89   137.70   18.70   10.00  4.60
1990-99   164.80   15.70   9.90     5.50
2000-09   94.70   15.90   7.20  2.90
2010-16   144.00   18.00   11.00  5.71

East Pacific
Season   ACE   TS   HU   MH
1971-79   110.89   14.56   8.89   4.00
1980-89   137.70   18.70   10.00   4.60
1990-99   164.80   15.70   9.90   5.50
2000-09   94.70   15.90   7.20   2.90
2010-16   144.00   18.00   11.00   5.71

Pacific Typhoon
Season   TD   TS   Ty   STy
1970-79   35.30   26.10   15.30   3.10
1980-89   44.80   27.10   15.50   2.80
1990-99   42.00   27.40   13.80   4.90
2000-09   41.80   24.00   14.30   5.10
2010-16   39.29   23.86   12.00   5.29

All above basins:
Season   TS   H/Ty
1971-79   50.33   29.44
1980-89   55.00   30.70
1990-99   54.00   30.10
2000-09   55.00   28.90
2010-16   56.86   29.86

Basically more variabilty shown (no surprise) and not much trend apart perhaps in Super Typhoons but there the numbers are low.

These numbers don't mean much. But so far it is not looking like a resounding success for these 2 IPCC predictions.

Forest Dweller

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #871 on: September 12, 2017, 05:30:50 PM »
More trouble looming in the Pacific for Vietnam, China, Taiwan and Japan coming days.
Some bizarre reports down here today from St. Maarten describing a crazy situation happening at the Zoo.
It seems hungry people are raiding it taking monkeys and snakes for food.

Martin Gisser

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #872 on: September 12, 2017, 05:54:37 PM »
The solution to climate change is political. Lets have a string of ridiculously bad years over the next decade so that we can get down to business.
Alas. And alas it's not the bad disasters in themselves that might convince people. What is needed is a critical mass of economically ruined lifes.  Irma and Harvey could be very "helpful" here:

It is no serious problem for the rich folk to get a new car and a new American cardboard house --. But how are those living from paycheck to paycheck going to get up on their feet again? Suddenly there's a million more "welfare queens" down at rock bottom. And a lot of them are white. That could be the motivation for demanding serious change.
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Canadensis

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #873 on: September 12, 2017, 06:05:20 PM »
Graph showing the 15 most powerful cyclones to make landfall by wind speed (mph) and year of occurrence. No longer once per decade, now averaging one per year. Based on graph from Jeff Masters' Wunderground article covering Irma.

https://scontent-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21314684_10155185986833920_6807664637122190754_n.jpg?oh=e736206c4922e58d96b83762a68b9147&oe=5A1697C7

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #874 on: September 12, 2017, 06:13:55 PM »
Graph showing the 15 most powerful cyclones to make landfall by wind speed (mph) and year of occurrence. No longer once per decade, now averaging one per year. Based on graph from Jeff Masters' Wunderground article covering Irma.

https://scontent-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21314684_10155185986833920_6807664637122190754_n.jpg?oh=e736206c4922e58d96b83762a68b9147&oe=5A1697C7

Why all the cheering for more and worse natural disasters?  One would think that people would hope that the worst predictions are wrong, and that changes are manageable. 

crandles

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #875 on: September 12, 2017, 06:18:06 PM »

That link may still be showing August 8 data? 


Oops yes thanks

2017 world production now showing 98.26 down from 98.42 for 2017.

Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #876 on: September 12, 2017, 06:51:50 PM »

We need more violent and devastating events to occur on a regular basis.

Be careful what you wish for .....

USA politics do have an effect globally, i guess the republicans still want to drown the Netherlands.
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Canadensis

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #877 on: September 12, 2017, 07:04:56 PM »
Daniel B, my previous post contains a link to a graph that suggests that cyclones may be increasing in strength while the debate about frequency continues.
  I have know idea why you would see anything in that comment to suggest
I was "cheering".

John Batteen

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #878 on: September 12, 2017, 07:19:22 PM »
Shared Humanity, would it not be better to hope for people to come around without the need for disaster?  That's what I'm hoping for anyway.  We've seen an awful lot of destruction already this year.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #879 on: September 12, 2017, 07:38:36 PM »
Pope blasts climate change doubters: cites moral duty to act
ABOARD THE PAPAL PLANE (AP) — Pope Francis has sharply criticized climate change doubters, saying history will judge those who failed to take the necessary decisions to curb heat-trapping emissions blamed for the warming of the Earth.

Francis was asked about climate change and the spate of hurricanes that have pummeled the U.S., Mexico and the Caribbean recently as his charter plane left Colombia on Sunday and flew over some of the devastated areas.

“Those who deny this must go to the scientists and ask them. They speak very clearly,” he said, referring to experts who blame global warming on man-made activities. ...
https://apnews.com/4f1f546c7c774b928b3a069095f66f3d/Pope-blasts-climate-skeptics,-cites-'moral'-duty-to-act


(If you are wondering about the Pope's appearance in the article's photograph:  the Pope bumped his head in the Pope-mobile yesterday while waving to crowds.)
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Martin Gisser

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #880 on: September 12, 2017, 07:41:38 PM »
John, there is no hope whatsoever for serious climate reason since at least 2009. Katrina was 2005...

Example from Louisiana:
"The small Louisiana town of Cameron could be the first in the US to be fully submerged by rising sea levels – and yet locals, 90% of whom voted for Trump, still aren’t convinced about climate change" https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/18/louisiana-climate-change-skeptics-donald-trump-support

"As the seas around them rise, fishermen deny climate change" http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/20/us/louisiana-climate-change-skeptics/index.html


Why is the earth silent at this destruction? (Martin Heidegger ca. 1937)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #881 on: September 12, 2017, 07:55:59 PM »
Florida Keys

Click here for the latest information from the Monroe County Emergency Management
http://www.monroecountyem.com/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=129
     https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/907653270591688705


Residents allowed back into Upper Keys only.  Road repairs underway.  Hospitals working to reopen.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #882 on: September 12, 2017, 07:58:53 PM »
#Irma is only 3rd Atlantic named storm since 1880 to form N of 15N, E of 40W and make US landfall as hurricane.  2 others: Sea Islands & Ike
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907655245257334784

Irma is 64th Atlantic named storm to form N of 15N, E of 40W since 1880, so odds of US hurricane landfall when forming there are about 5%.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/907655245257334784
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #883 on: September 13, 2017, 12:15:38 AM »
Before and after satellite imagery show how #Irma stirred up the ocean and is causing runoff in South Florida
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907611357230624768
GIF at the link.

Has to be a lot of organic material in that. Could this extra material result in an algae bloom?

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #884 on: September 13, 2017, 12:27:06 AM »
Shared Humanity, would it not be better to hope for people to come around without the need for disaster?  That's what I'm hoping for anyway.  We've seen an awful lot of destruction already this year.

Absolutely. It would be wonderful if policy makers would react to the science behind AGW which was 1st proposed in the early 1800's resulting in a general consensus in the early 1980's but here we are, extracting fossil fuels at a record pace.

We need to essentially stop burning all fossil fuels in about 3 decades. This will take nothing less than a massive, world wide Marshall Plan. All of the moneyed interests are lined up against such a response. Anything less will doom humanity to a future that is too dreadful to imagine.

We need to be shocked into action and deadly global catastrophes are the only way this will happen....say a deadly heatwave in the Southwest U.S. that kills 150,000.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 04:02:55 PM by Shared Humanity »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #885 on: September 13, 2017, 03:06:29 AM »
Before and after satellite imagery show how #Irma stirred up the ocean and is causing runoff in South Florida
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907611357230624768
GIF at the link.


Has to be a lot of organic material in that. Could this extra material result in an algae bloom?


And worse, I imagine.  Health warnings abound:

Miami-Dade health department: Stay out of ocean at beach — it may be dirty
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article172970191.html

https://twitter.com/MiamiHerald/status/907760992997855233


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #886 on: September 13, 2017, 03:08:19 AM »
Some Keys residents return home but full scope of damage still unfolding
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172969686.html

Tom Ross looks at his beachfront condo-was 3 stories-pancaked by #Irma Upper Fla Keys opened to residents 2day.
https://twitter.com/OrmistonOnline/status/907741026995130368
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #887 on: September 13, 2017, 03:12:57 AM »
Florida flooding continues to increase in some areas.

Central Florida lake levels going up in many places, causing many problems for surrounding residents Post #Irma.
https://twitter.com/IreneSans/status/907756876984614913
GIF at the link.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #888 on: September 13, 2017, 04:18:24 AM »
Why all the cheering for more and worse natural disasters?  One would think that people would hope that the worst predictions are wrong, and that changes are manageable.

Hope for the best, but prepare for the worse.

Edit: No one would fly in an airplane designed by an engineer who assumed forcing only from the most favorable weather conditions.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 04:29:09 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #889 on: September 13, 2017, 02:44:12 PM »
Daniel B, my previous post contains a link to a graph that suggests that cyclones may be increasing in strength while the debate about frequency continues.
  I have know idea why you would see anything in that comment to suggest
I was "cheering".

My apologies.  I meant to quote the poster who was hoping for more destructive storms so that stronger actions would be taken.  My mistake.  Sorry.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #890 on: September 13, 2017, 04:12:47 PM »

My apologies.  I meant to quote the poster who was hoping for more destructive storms so that stronger actions would be taken.  My mistake.  Sorry.

I understood your comment was directed towards me and we could continue this conversation here but it is off topic. I too wish that we would react aggressively to AGW and essentially stop the use of fossil fuels by 2050. This will not happen unless we are shocked into action and, in my last comment, I suggested a heatwave in the American Southwest that kills 150,000 could be useful in that regard. This certainly reads as a brutally callous remark and the number is grotesque but a 2003 heat wave in Europe killed 70,000 and it barely registered in the American consciousness.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #891 on: September 13, 2017, 06:21:50 PM »
Shared Humanity: I think we will get shocked into action. I life in West-Europe, in the middle between the north and the south. You could say the border between a soft and a hard winter. Here you can see very good that the winter is moving to the North. Because that border is also a natural border for many animals like insects. They can not survive a hard winter, not 20 years ago. But today many insects are moving to the north at a very high speed, because the winter is moving to the north. And when i was young, a little further to the North, in Holland. They had some outdoor ice scating competition ( elfstedentocht), The last time was maybe 20 years ago. Because the ice is to thin, or there is no ice at all. Before that we had it almost every year. So the winter is moving further north. And the oceans are warming deeper and deeper. And that  makes these oceans like food baskets for hurricanes. In the future they will call Irma a baby hurricane. And that will shock the world. Because of all the disaster and financial damage. Many of these places that are sensitive for hurricanes are investor markets,near the warm beach , and the prices of all that real-estate will go to zero.

etienne

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #892 on: September 13, 2017, 06:22:45 PM »
Sorry for my supid comment, but I believe that when a heatwave will kill 150'000 people in the American Southwest, it will be too late for everybody.

With "an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth" concept, you only get blind and toothless people.

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #893 on: September 13, 2017, 06:25:54 PM »
 
Five Dead After Florida Nursing Home Goes Without Air Conditioning After Irma

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/13/us/nursing-home-deaths-florida.html

Five people are dead and 115 have been evacuated to a local hospital from a nursing home that had no air conditioning following Hurricane Irma, the police said Wednesday.
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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #894 on: September 13, 2017, 06:56:51 PM »
a heatwave in the American Southwest that kills 150,000 could be useful in [[waking people up]]
Well, that would be the homeless in Phoenix or Yuma, or a weeklong power failure affecting gas pumps (as nearby Flagstaff is 7000'). Everyone else has AC or a swamp cooler: home, car, parking lot, work, stores. It's like a Martian colony down here already.

Global mean surface temperature isn't applicable to the Southwest, it's one of the all-time bad IPCC jokes. It's been running +7ºF down here since March. Not a drop in the second half of the rainy season (below).

Irma + Harvey together will not bring a blip to CDC mortality statistics. The numbers are dwarfed by just the weekly murder rates in Miami + Jacksonville + Houston. In terms of cotton-tops (elderly) in nursing homes, they weren't going to live much longer on average anyway, so by CDC's reckoning (mortality weighted by life expectancy), it might take 40 of them to add up to one toddler. There's also been discussion on how to score Alzheimer warehouses.

Despite the hurricanes being primarily property damage, the info-wars may still have went well. The message did get out, despite an excellent stream of tweets from the Koch's hurricane guy R Maue, that climate change did contribute to frequency and intensity of these tropical storms. And a lot of the public here goes by their gut feeling, which worked to our advantage for once.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 07:14:09 PM by A-Team »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #895 on: September 13, 2017, 07:16:18 PM »
Key West:
MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT UDATE TUESDAY EVENING
http://monroecountyem.com/CivicAlerts/SingleAlertItem?alertID=130
Statement at the link.

Southern most point, Key West before and after #Irma. #KHOU11
https://mobile.twitter.com/khou/status/907652139115261952
Photos below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #896 on: September 13, 2017, 07:18:30 PM »
Hurricane #Irma rainfall for storm over Southeast U.S including several states = 17 Trillion gallons. Harvey dropped 20T on SE Texas alone.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/907645909382651904
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #897 on: September 13, 2017, 07:22:08 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #898 on: September 13, 2017, 07:25:21 PM »
What it was like to live through Hurricane Irma as a Category 5 storm, as told by residents of a tiny island (Virgin Islands)
http://mashable.com/2017/09/13/hurricane-irma-firsthand-account-st-john-island/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #899 on: September 13, 2017, 07:32:12 PM »
Double Trouble in NW Pacific -  NASA/NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite saw Tropical Storm Doksuri  and  Typhoon Talim
https://twitter.com/NASAHurricane/status/908000519028973569
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