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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #950 on: September 17, 2017, 02:32:55 PM »
"Maria set to move through the Caribbean as Cat 3+, peaking near Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
Folks, this is a serious storm."
    Another horrible week for the Caribbean.
NHC: "it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than currently forecast."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909270868693602304
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #951 on: September 17, 2017, 02:35:14 PM »
If you're just waking up, here's the latest track for #Jose. Most likely track of the center still SE of Nantucket.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/909393587502280706
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #952 on: September 17, 2017, 02:39:56 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #953 on: September 17, 2017, 03:34:21 PM »
Probabilities are rising for the chance of Hurricane impacts east coast. ...
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/909391745024184320
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #954 on: September 17, 2017, 03:42:52 PM »
"They Call the Wind Maria"  - from "Paint Your Wagon"

"Maria blows the stars around
Sets the clouds a-flyin'
Maria makes
The mountains sound like folks was out there dyin'"

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #955 on: September 17, 2017, 04:51:44 PM »
Floodwater pathogens can’t be washed off of fresh produce
Quote
...“Fresh fruits and vegetables that have been inundated by flood waters cannot be adequately cleaned and should be destroyed,” according to the FDA.

“There is no practical method of reconditioning the edible portion of a crop that will provide a reasonable assurance of human food safety. Therefore, the FDA recommends that these crops be disposed of in a manner that ensures they are kept separate from crops that have not been flood damaged to avoid adulterating ‘clean’ crops.”

Floodwaters contain a cocktail of pathogens and parasites, including E. coli, Salmonella, typhoid and cholera. ...
http://www.foodsafetynews.com/2017/09/floodwater-pathogens-cant-be-washed-off-of-fresh-produce/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #956 on: September 17, 2017, 08:13:57 PM »
In the direct path of #Maria, at hurricane strength:
Martinique
Dominica
Guadeloupe
Montserrat
St. Kitts & Nevis
USVI
BVI
Puerto Rico
D.R.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909455936309399553

For Puerto Rico and the USVI, Maria will likely be worse than Irma -- maybe much worse.
Please, please take this storm seriously.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909456605737037824
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #957 on: September 17, 2017, 08:16:02 PM »
NHC odds of Tropical Storm conditions from #Jose:
DC: 10%
Philly: 22%
Atlantic City: 34%
NYC: 35%
Nantucket: 60%
Boston: 34%
Halifax: 6%
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909453843062251522
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #958 on: September 17, 2017, 09:52:28 PM »
12z Euro with a ridiculous 1-2 punch to the Northeast [U.S.] courtesy of #Maria and a drunk #Jose
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/909493863978475520

Ridiculous GIF at the link.  :-\
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logicmanPatrick

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #959 on: September 17, 2017, 10:02:35 PM »
Quote
"Floodwaters contain a cocktail of pathogens and parasites, including E. coli, Salmonella, typhoid and cholera. ..."

Not to mention stuff from the badly-named superfund sites aka heavily polluted sites.  Google map of poisoned places.  Note very many in path of effects of Jose.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1ufPxvmFcqVFOq2LEFew9CL28ePI&hl=en_US&ll=34.26378938618664%2C-77.55964843750002&z=6
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #960 on: September 17, 2017, 10:03:09 PM »
#Maria #BVI @GusJaspert Governor, someone doesn't understand. You should have already issued a watch. Now only 1 daylight left 2 get ready!
https://twitter.com/weathercarib/status/909489681586442240

Tropical Storm Maria Projected To Hit USVI As Hurricane; Mapp Issues Urgent Warning To USVI: Head To Shelters, [Batten Down]
https://twitter.com/justatraveler/status/909389430863036416
(Link has a link to an article.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #961 on: September 17, 2017, 10:10:34 PM »
~55-60% of major hurricanes that pass thru Hebert Box #1 hit the US, that's ~1.5-2x the climatological mean for all TCs in this area. #Maria
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/909257569771941888
Additional informative images at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #962 on: September 17, 2017, 11:49:48 PM »
NHC Update, 5pm:
#Maria is now a hurricane. This is an utterly devastating forecast for the Caribbean, just days after Irma's impact.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909533408518397954
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #963 on: September 18, 2017, 12:02:36 AM »
Jose:

NWS Charleston, South Carolina
Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through 9 PM this evening. Saltwater flooding possible with the evening high tide. #scwx #gawx
https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/909535200627093504
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #964 on: September 18, 2017, 12:06:47 AM »
A lot of #Jose guidance slams the brakes on the storm as it approaches. Where exactly it stops and dodges east the main Q for us.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/909502083384119296
Image below.

How much preparation should SE [New England] be doing?

Should plan on those potential outages, and coastal residents should keep a close eye on flooding forecasts. Very high tides & big surf.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/909502600545959936

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P-maker

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #965 on: September 18, 2017, 12:16:05 AM »
Sigmetnow,

Thank you for keeping an eye on the
Quote
“ridiculous 1-2 punch to the Northeast [U.S.]”
I took a further look at a handful of forecasts for the end of month pressure configuration. They all came out with a high pressure area situated over Newfoundland. It was the same type of atmospheric steering, which led to the Sandy disaster by the end of October in 2012. Now it seems as if we will have this same type of blocking ridge at the same time as we will have two tropical cyclones approaching from the south. Since we are one month earlier, one can only speculate whether New Jersey will be hit again, or whether the swamps of Washington will be filled up again with a storm surge up the Chesapeake Bay or a pluvial disaster down the Potomac River.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #966 on: September 18, 2017, 12:17:15 AM »
@NHC_Atlantic and @NWS offices hoist a Tropical Storm Watch from Delaware to Cape Cod. #Jose
https://twitter.com/GCarbin/status/909533188891885568
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #967 on: September 18, 2017, 12:21:15 AM »
Sigmetnow,

Thank you for keeping an eye on the
Quote
“ridiculous 1-2 punch to the Northeast [U.S.]”
<snip>

I'm starting to feel a little like The Weather Channel's Dr. Greg Forbes in the midst of a tornado outbreak....  :o
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #968 on: September 18, 2017, 12:32:06 AM »
NWS OPC:  GOES-16 (non-operational) imagery of #HurricaneJose nearing our #Atlantic offshore waters.
https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/909543844072640514
Satellite GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #969 on: September 18, 2017, 12:42:48 AM »
When citizens take it upon themselves to help during a disaster.

Harvey's heartbreaking losses
Quote
The Federal Emergency Management Agency under past administrator Craig Fugate began to encourage the move toward broad citizen involvement, recognizing that a "command-and-control" structure often will break down in bigger disasters. After Harvey, Fugate said the old way of looking at the public as either victim or potential hindrance - "a liability" - is outdated, especially in an event of such size. Instead, he said, they should be considered a resource.
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Harvey-s-heartbreaking-losses-12201961.php
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TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #970 on: September 18, 2017, 02:10:25 AM »
A 100-year-flood has a 26% chance of happening during your 30-year mortgage.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/


Did I miss something?


If an event has a 1% chance of occurring, and we go to the well 30 times, don't we have a 30% chance of capturing that once elusive prize?


How on earth was the 26% figure arrived at?


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #971 on: September 18, 2017, 02:56:23 AM »
Further to P-maker's comments above:

Problem is a very high-amplitude pattern. Big ridges stopping up the works. Not a lot of westerly flow right now or anytime soon.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/909573481116954624
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Avalonian

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #972 on: September 18, 2017, 02:58:06 AM »
A 100-year-flood has a 26% chance of happening during your 30-year mortgage.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/

Did I miss something?
If an event has a 1% chance of occurring, and we go to the well 30 times, don't we have a 30% chance of capturing that once elusive prize?
How on earth was the 26% figure arrived at?

Terry

Not how statistics works, Terry! By that reasoning, after 100 years, the probability is 1, which of course isn't true.

To work out the odds, you take the inverse scenario (i.e. 99% chance of not happening), and raise that to the power of 30... then subtract from 100%. The 26% answer is correct.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #973 on: September 18, 2017, 03:08:07 AM »
Thanks, Avalonian.  I couldn't find the equation, but I did find the image below from a FEMA document.

Math!  :o

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #974 on: September 18, 2017, 03:18:50 AM »
Active spot on the sun caused solar storms that impacted satellite & radio comms during #Harvey #Irma. #NWAS17
https://twitter.com/nwas/status/909582390976114688

Noise from a solar flare was so intense that FAA lost communications with several aircraft #NWAS17
https://twitter.com/nwas/status/909581408540049408



This is really scary stuff. Had no idea there were so many issues with GPS, sat phones and amateur radio due to solar storms in Aug-Sep
https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/909583489523056640
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TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #975 on: September 18, 2017, 04:08:42 AM »
A 100-year-flood has a 26% chance of happening during your 30-year mortgage.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/13/we-still-dont-know-how-to-talk-about-floods/

Did I miss something?
If an event has a 1% chance of occurring, and we go to the well 30 times, don't we have a 30% chance of capturing that once elusive prize?
How on earth was the 26% figure arrived at?

Terry

Not how statistics works, Terry! By that reasoning, after 100 years, the probability is 1, which of course isn't true.

To work out the odds, you take the inverse scenario (i.e. 99% chance of not happening), and raise that to the power of 30... then subtract from 100%. The 26% answer is correct.


My thanks.


I'd realized I was on the wrong path before I hit "post", but struggled to identify my error.


Terry

Avalonian

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #976 on: September 18, 2017, 04:20:12 AM »

My thanks.

I'd realized I was on the wrong path before I hit "post", but struggled to identify my error.

Terry

No worries - it's good to dust off the A-level maths every now and then!  :o

Brigantine

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #977 on: September 18, 2017, 05:39:18 AM »
Did I miss something?

Just to put a different spin on Avalonian's comment:

That 30% cumulative chance of events is still there, but 3.97% of it is overlapping. So the total flooding footprint only covers 26.03% of possible outcomes.

Somewhere within that 26% footprint is the overlap - 3.61% of possible outcomes have multiple 100-year floods, including 0.33% of possible outcomes containing *more* than 2 floods - on average 3.07 - which brings the cumulative chance up that final 0.36% to 30%.

The 27th - 30th percentiles are spared thanks to the 1st-4th percentiles carrying extra load.

[Technically... correct me if I'm wrong anyone, but the expected number of floods in 30 years should be marginally above 0.3 (~0.3015), as the way it is calculated ignores the chance of 2 floods in a single year. So the above should talk about "years with flooding" instead of separate "floods"/"events".

If it were defined as a 100-year recurrence time, we'd calculate the probabilities with exponentials (Poisson). So it would be a 25.92% chance of at least 1 in 30 years (4.08% overlap), 3.69% chance of 2+, 0.36% chance of more (average 3.08).

Defined as 1% chance of 1 or more events per year, but calculating including the risk of multiple events each year, it would be a 30.15% cumulative chance of events, a 26.03% chance of at least 1 in 30 years (4.12% overlap), 3.73% chance of 2+, 0.37% chance of more (average 3.08)

I realize these small differences are nothing compared to the uncertainty when calculating recurrence times in the real world!]
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 05:49:59 AM by Brigantine »

Yamatin

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #978 on: September 18, 2017, 06:13:49 AM »
Quote
"Floodwaters contain a cocktail of pathogens and parasites, including E. coli, Salmonella, typhoid and cholera. ..."

Not to mention stuff from the badly-named superfund sites aka heavily polluted sites.  Google map of poisoned places.  Note very many in path of effects of Jose.


Seen a few posts regarding the potential issue with EPA Superfund classified sites and just wanted to clarify the actual risk associated with these areas. For reference, before moving into corporate sustainability consulting, I was an environmental design engineer focusing on Superfund clean-ups. Sites that become enrolled in the EPA Superfund program often have one of three issues:
  • Contaminated groundwater from various potential chemicals (petroleum-based or some type of synthetic chemical) or dissolved toxic metals, which is a threat to human health or the environment (i.e. is close to the surface, close to a drinking water source, or heading towards either of those).
  • Soil contamination, again either chemical-based, metals, or other material such as asbestos. Metals and other solids are often found at their highest concentration within the first few feet due to deposition or just falling onto the ground say from a rail car full of coal. Chemical-based wastes have infiltrated and often sit between 3 and 30 feet below the surface depending on the soil type filling the pore space between the soil.
  • Old waste pit (i.e. landfill) created back in the 50s to 70s that operated before any real rules existed around proper disposal. These were often located in low-lying wetland areas behind the manufacturing facility or some distant collection area. The result of this is groundwater contamination from the buried materials + hazardous leachate generated from the combination of the various materials and chemicals with infiltrating groundwater. These pits will generally have a few feet of soil covering them (the typical way these sites were closed back in the day).

In all three situations, the risk associated with flooding is generally limited unless the site is actively undergoing excavation, which exposes the worst of the contaminants to flood waters. While the first few inches of soil with metal impacts could be taken away with the flood waters, their settling would result in highly diluted concentrations that would in nearly all cases no longer be a more significant concern than the surrounding area. Most of Houston likely already has higher than average levels of contaminated soil given all the refineries that have been emitting toxic metals into the air for decades that then settle downgradient).

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #979 on: September 18, 2017, 02:58:38 PM »
Statements like this :

The White House is only 54 feet above sea level.  If Jose went up the Chesapeake Bay, I think the
White House could flood.  Maybe that would wake up some skeptics. 

and this
Quote
We need to be shocked into action and deadly global catastrophes are the only way this will happen....say a deadly heatwave in the Southwest U.S. that kills 150,000.

are not helping at all.

If they were to happen they would be regarded as 'fluke' events and for good reason.
Global warming and climate change and sea level rise so far happen slowly but steadily.
And that is troublesome enough.

As the global temperature warms, more frequent and severe events are the natural outcome so we can expect these events to become more and more frequent. We need to have enough of them that they can no longer be characterized as 'fluke' events.

If there are any climate trigger points that lead to abrupt climate change, then we will see this only after a number of years in a row result in the same catastrophes, and then it will be too late anyway.

Would you mean like the three consecutive 500 year floods in Houston in 2015, 2016 and 2017? These events are not evidence of abrupt climate change but the increasing frequency of these severe events are a direct result of a warming planet.

You may feel my comments are not helpful but it does not matter how you characterize them. These kinds of events (throw in the historic wildfires in the west and and an endless number of events across the planet) are on the rise and the sooner Americans realize that this is what is in store for us if we do not stop burning fossil fuels the better off we will be.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 03:07:16 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #980 on: September 18, 2017, 03:15:20 PM »
The simple fact is that some of the most fierce opponents of AGW in the U.S. are beginning to acknowledge that climate change is real and that some of it is the result of human activity. These same people are now arguing that the effects of this warming will not be severe and thus nothing needs to be done.

Anyone arguing that the effects of climate change will be slow or minor as evidence mounts that this is simply not the case are only serving to delay actions that are desperately needed. Meanwhile, the U.S. has pulled out of the Paris agreement.

More frequent and devastating events in the U.S., please.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 04:15:51 PM by Shared Humanity »

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #981 on: September 18, 2017, 03:43:04 PM »
MARIA  Latest from NHC
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS MARIA INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #982 on: September 18, 2017, 04:01:08 PM »
Hurricane Maria:
Hurricane-force wind probability map.
Arrival of Tropical-Storm-force winds map.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #983 on: September 18, 2017, 04:34:41 PM »
Florida: after the flood.

Public health crisis looms after Irma
Quote
NAPLES, Fla. — Emergency responders in the Everglades City area, a low-income fishing community walloped by Hurricane Irma last weekend, may be faced with a deadly public health crisis as families spend day after day in the mud, mold and water left behind by 10 feet of storm surge that destroyed hundreds of homes. ...
http://amp.usatoday.com/story/675822001/

Edit:  Because Florida is so flat, sewerage systems commonly must be pressurized to induce flow.  That requires electricity....
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 04:42:25 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #984 on: September 18, 2017, 04:44:50 PM »
María forecast model tracks from this morning ([first image below]) versus yesterday morning ([second image below])
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/909780107891318784
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #985 on: September 18, 2017, 05:06:02 PM »
11am NHC update.

Satellite shows drier air mixing into Jose.

Tropical Depression Lee is expected to track slowly to the northwest.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #986 on: September 18, 2017, 05:13:39 PM »
Hurricane Jose now a minimal hurricane.  Will continue to transition to more of a nor'easter type of storm in coming days.
https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/909792799742144513
Satellite GIF at the link.

Danger lessening for the Northeast from Hurricane #Jose, expect mostly waves & coastal erosion for the worst impacts.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909793657947082753
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #987 on: September 18, 2017, 05:15:27 PM »
NHC Update, 11am:
#Maria has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a major hurricane. Expected to strike Dominica within hours.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909793934150422528
IR satellite GIF at the link.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #988 on: September 18, 2017, 05:49:47 PM »
"A horrific forecast:
NHC now expects #Maria to approach Dominica tonight as a Cat 4, and strengthen to near Cat 5 before landfall in USVI/PR"
"I can't possibly stress this enough: If you have friends or family in Puerto Rico, please get in touch.
Maria will be much worse than Irma."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909801168288743425

"Not since the 1932 San Ciprian hurricane has Puerto Rico faced a Cat 4 landfall. Maria will be a catastrophic storm on its current course."
"Just once in recorded history (1928) has Puerto Rico faced a landfall from a Cat 5 hurricane. There's a real chance Maria could be the 2nd."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909803219823538184

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #989 on: September 18, 2017, 06:06:27 PM »
Puerto Rico gov declares state of emergency ahead of Hurricane María

Quote
SAN JUAN – Gov. Ricardo Rosselló announced Monday that he signed an executive order to declare a state of emergency for Puerto Rico ahead of Hurricane María’s passage over the island.

Likewise, the governor requested President Donald Trump to declare a state of emergency for federal reimbursement of funds used in damage mitigation efforts before María moves over the island.

Meteorologist Ernesto Morales of the National Meteorological Service (SNM by its Spanish initials) said Hurricane María’s forecast uncertainty “is very low” and “confidence” is high, and recommended taking precautionary measures before the storm.

“The system is forecast to be Category 3 or 4 passing over the island of Puerto Rico. The radius of hurricane winds is 25 miles; therefore, all Puerto Rico will be experiencing hurricane conditions,” said the meteorologist, who forecast 12 to 18 inches of rain on the island. “The forecast says the system is going to slow down to 8 [miles per hour] to 10 miles per hour. We will be under its effects for a longer period,” he added.

“Severe flooding is expected,” the governor warned. “We are urging that if you are in a dangerous area don’t think it won’t happen. Experts have told you today that the margin of error is very slim here.” ...
Quote
Rosselló said he asked that eight construction cranes be lowered, and that three were already being worked on. He warned the rest that the police could force them to abide by the order.
http://caribbeanbusiness.com/puerto-rico-gov-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-hurricane-maria/



If you want steady updates as Hurricane #Maria approaches Puerto Rico, @JohnMoralesNBC6 is your guy. He grew up there.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909809837151850496
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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #990 on: September 18, 2017, 07:30:17 PM »
Just want to echo others to say I really appreciate what you are doing here, Sig. It takes quite a bit of time to chase down the best hurricane links on my own and cycle through them regularly so the forum collection of breaking news is much more convenient. 

J Masters and B Henson are also putting out some fine once-a-day articles on these hurricanes, the most recent being:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/rapidly-intensifying-maria-hitting-leeward-islands-jose-headed-north

logicmanPatrick

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #991 on: September 18, 2017, 07:35:05 PM »
Quote
"Floodwaters contain a cocktail of pathogens and parasites, including E. coli, Salmonella, typhoid and cholera. ..."

Not to mention stuff from the badly-named superfund sites aka heavily polluted sites.  Google map of poisoned places.  Note very many in path of effects of Jose.


Seen a few posts regarding the potential issue with EPA Superfund classified sites and just wanted to clarify the actual risk associated with these areas.

[snip]

Yamatin: many thanks for your input.

Given that floodwaters tend to be fast in, slow out, would you agree that it is likely that there would be a gradient of pollution around a contaminated flooded site rather than dilution over a substantial area?  I have seen this effect for small scale flooding: a foot or two of water lingering for a week or two.  I have no experience of anything deeper or longer lasting. (For which I am eternally grateful)
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #992 on: September 18, 2017, 08:15:08 PM »
In past hour, eye of #HurricaneMaria has begun to clear & warm. Intensification continues rapidly. Not good at all.
It's #Dvorak T-time
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/909839907186765824
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #993 on: September 18, 2017, 08:42:17 PM »
Just want to echo others to say I really appreciate what you are doing here, Sig. It takes quite a bit of time to chase down the best hurricane links on my own and cycle through them regularly so the forum collection of breaking news is much more convenient. 

<snip>

Thanks, A-Team.  "Weather Twitter" has been operating at about 700% ever since Hurricane Harvey came on the scene.  The output is quite impressive -- or frightening, one might say! 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #994 on: September 18, 2017, 09:39:47 PM »
Jose and Maria: wind forecasts.
The second link has the rather cool GIF.  The third link is the live, on-line map:


If you ever wanted a demonstration of typical scale of tropical vs extra-tropical systems:
    https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/909859216768274432

GFS peak gusts over the next 8 days across the N Atlantic -->
https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/909858834600079360

http://wxcharts.eu/?model=gfs&region=atl&chart=max_gustsmph&run=12&step=189&plottype=10&lat=36.086&lon=-82.506&skewtstep=0
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #995 on: September 19, 2017, 01:53:24 AM »
[7:33pm] Recon finds an estimated pressure of 926mb and surface winds of 160 mph in #Maria's northwestern eyewall.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/909923538009812993

I guess this means Cat 5.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #996 on: September 19, 2017, 02:49:42 AM »
Update: NHC has upgraded Hurricane Maria to Category 5. It was Cat 1 this morning, one of the fastest intensifying hurricanes in history.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909935920106823680

Quote
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 61.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  On the forecast
track, the core of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent
Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme
northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and
approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight, but some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the
next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 925 mb (27.32 inches).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/181458.shtml?


This is a 15hr satellite loop. 15hrs. #Maria
https://twitter.com/WxDeFlitch/status/909943635310821377
IR satellite GIF at the link shows Cat 1 to Cat 5
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 02:57:55 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #997 on: September 19, 2017, 03:08:53 AM »
While #Maria has intensified very quickly, Wilma 2005 was still faster: cat 1 to cat 5 in less than 12 hours vs Maria about 15 hours.
https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/909941752357847041


Image from: https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/909931626192400384
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #998 on: September 19, 2017, 03:13:41 AM »
Warm water extending farther east?

Map showing location where all Atlantic Cat. 5 hurricanes on record first reached Cat. 5 status.  #Irma #Maria
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/909947668163526656
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #999 on: September 19, 2017, 03:17:33 AM »
Strong words used by @NWSSanJuan to describe the impacts of #Maria. View their just updated Local Statement here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTCA82-TJSJ-English.shtml

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/909946044288503808
Image below.
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