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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1050 on: September 20, 2017, 05:57:56 PM »
NWS:  At 11am EDT, #Maria's center was just 30 miles west of @NWSSanJuan. Staff is safe, continues to operate and issue warnings.
     https://twitter.com/NWS/status/910527668826734592
Image below.

Flash Flood Emergency continues for Trujillo Alto, Gurabo, Carolina, Loiza, Las Piedras, Caguas, Canovanas, Juncos, San Lorenzo #prwx
https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/910527667543224321

Many of Puerto Rico's river gauges reporting "major flooding" as of 11:30a. Widespread 15-20"+ totals estimated.
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/910526886396219392
Second and third images below. Washington Post article link at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1051 on: September 20, 2017, 06:00:11 PM »
"Deep Thunder did a good job here."
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/910525086024728577
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1052 on: September 20, 2017, 08:49:58 PM »
Maria has left Puerto Rico in shambles.
100% of the island of 3.5M Americans is now without power -- could be that way for weeks or months.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910572846484684800
IR satellite GIF at the link.

“Anyone with electricity is using a generator.”
Hurricane Maria leaves all of Puerto Rico without power
http://abcnews.go.com/International/hurricane-maria-leaves-puerto-rico-power-striking/story?id=49971859
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1053 on: September 20, 2017, 08:57:26 PM »
And another sizeable earthquake!

A 6.1 magnitude earthquake has struck off the coast of #Japan - no tsunami warning has been issued
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-09-20/earthquake-strikes-off-the-coast-of-japan/
    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/910572201543430150

(There was a magnitude 6.1 quake about 250 km from New Zealand last night, too.  The earth shrugs....)
« Last Edit: September 22, 2017, 11:28:22 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1054 on: September 20, 2017, 09:21:01 PM »
Hurricanes don't like land and hate mountains even more. (if they had feelings). Storm now back over water, but weakened.  #maria
https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/910577662153908225
Satellite GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1055 on: September 20, 2017, 09:33:30 PM »
Forecasting skills won't get rusty the next 7 days.  Canadian, Japanese, Euro, and USA models all say we need to watch #Maria.
https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/910577004050833408
Individual maps at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1056 on: September 21, 2017, 12:24:58 AM »
What happens to the Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds map when a storm meanders around in a circle. #Jose  :o
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jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1057 on: September 21, 2017, 01:46:49 AM »
Puerto Rico's Emergency Manager "Puerto Rico is Destroyed"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-maria-makes-landfall-puerto-rico-category-4-storm-n802911

"Once we're able to go outside, we're going to find our island destroyed," Emergency Management Director Abner Gómez Cortés said at a news briefing. Rosselló imposed a 6 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew, citing flood warnings and the importance of keeping streets clear for repair and rescue teams.

 San Juan San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz told MSNBC that the devastation in the capital was unlike any she had ever seen.

"The San Juan that we knew yesterday is no longer there," Yulín said, adding: "We're looking at four to six months without electricity" in Puerto Rico, home to nearly 3.5 million people.

. . . four to six months. . .
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jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1058 on: September 21, 2017, 01:49:34 AM »
the 'big three' (so far) cat 4 u.s. landfalling hurricanes
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1059 on: September 21, 2017, 02:17:23 AM »
BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM
PUERTO RICO...
...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 67.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas
...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/192357.shtml?


More incredible river levels in Puerto Rico. Can't imagine how bad things are right now. #Maria #PuertoRico
https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV/status/910641359186472960
First image below.

"My moms friend in Puerto Rico sent us this video she took from her apartment #hurricanemaria #maria #MariaPR #pr "
https://twitter.com/TheHungryCondor/status/910626553414979586
Storm video at the link.

Starting To receive images from Puerto Rico. My sister just sent me this. It’s from Utuado my hometown. #HurricaneMaria
     https://twitter.com/AntonioParis/status/910581641164312581
Second image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1060 on: September 21, 2017, 02:38:22 AM »
#Maria's eye has reappeared with sustained winds of 110 MPH. Strengthening possible, per @NHC_Atlantic. 30-second #GOES16 LWIR imagery.
https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/910654439102582785
GIF at the link.

NASA Earth images (below):
Hurricane Maria Lashes Puerto Rico https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91004
 #HurricaneMaria #MariaPR #PuertoRico
https://twitter.com/NASAEarth/status/910657792524132352
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1061 on: September 21, 2017, 03:00:31 AM »
For a storm that spent the day traversing high mountains, #Maria is looking very strong: https://t.co/6K5HyRReYy
 click map to zoom #wetter
https://twitter.com/WeatherdotUS/status/910662731182886913
First image below.

#Maria's eye apparent.  Peak winds near 105 mph with Integrated Kinetic Energy over 50 TJ now based mainly on earlier @53rdWRS flight.
https://twitter.com/hwind/status/910665893373411328
Second image below.

The combo of #ERC+#PuertoRico interaction substantially broadened #Maria's wind field. 65kt FL winds have doubled in size the last 36hrs.
     https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/910665529437847554
Third and fourth images below; compared as GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1062 on: September 21, 2017, 03:02:43 AM »
USGS River Gauge Rio Mameyes (El Yunque area) in PR went off the chart earlier this morning. Unknown how bad flooding is #Maria
https://twitter.com/28storms/status/910665269558857729
Image below.

NWS Miami is now backing up NWS San Juan. #Maria
https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/910666901386391552
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1063 on: September 21, 2017, 03:06:10 AM »
Inner eyewall of #HurricaneMaria as it went from circular and steady to elongated and gyrating wildly
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/910532338735386624
GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1064 on: September 21, 2017, 03:09:06 AM »
...this is for folks in Puerto Rico who might be trying to get in contact with emergency services.
https://twitter.com/Freeyourmindkid/status/910626844285833216
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sidd

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1065 on: September 21, 2017, 08:46:03 AM »
Perhaps this should be on a different thread, but here goes:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/black-knight-hurricane-harvey-could-130000796.html

Harvey expected delinquencies:

"Post-Katrina mortgage delinquencies in Louisiana and Mississippi FEMA-designated disaster areas soared 25 percentage points, peaking at over 34 percent
A similar impact to Harvey-related disaster areas would equate to 300,000 borrowers missing at least one mortgage payment, and 160,000 becoming 90 or more days past due"

"Still, there are 1.18 million mortgaged properties in Harvey-related disaster areas, more than twice as many as were hit by Hurricane Katrina, with nearly four times the unpaid principal balance. This will be a long-term recovery. If the Harvey-related disaster areas follow the same trajectory as those hit by Katrina, within four months we could be looking at as many as 160,000 borrowers falling 90 or more days past due on their mortgages.”"

Now for Irma:

http://www.mpamag.com/market-update/3-1-million-mortgaged-homes-in-hurricane-irma-disaster-area-79406.aspx

3.1 million mortgaged homes in Hurricane Irma disaster area

But the kicker:

"He added that from a mortgage performance perspective, Irma’s path was not as impactful as it might have been. As the hurricane did not hit Puerto Rico as forcefully as was predicted, a further escalation of the island’s already-high mortgage delinquency rate was avoided.

“At more than 10%, Puerto Rico’s delinquency rate is nearly three times that of the U.S. average, as is its 5.8 percent serious delinquency rate. In contrast, the disaster areas declared in Florida have starting delinquency rates below the national average, providing more than a glimmer of optimism as we move forward,” said Graboske. "


O dear: we got Maria:

...

Puerto Rico was bust b4 this. They are so screwed.

sidd

TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1066 on: September 21, 2017, 10:55:37 AM »
On topic I believe sidd
As the storms pass the financial picture will grow to be the more important story.


Wrote a bunch more - but it really did drift far from the topic.
Terry

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1067 on: September 21, 2017, 11:46:43 AM »
And it looks like Texas is not out of the water yet, but i'm not sure of it. I just learn to know ventusky. But if you accumulate the rainfall until next week, it looks alot. At some places up to 300 mm in just a few days, and it's a big area. Compared with their annual average rainfall it looks much.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1068 on: September 21, 2017, 11:47:12 AM »
To add to long-term consequencs is the already rotten state of Govt finances and the economies of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1069 on: September 21, 2017, 12:15:36 PM »
Puerto Rico was bust b4 this. They are so screwed. ....  As the storms pass the financial picture will grow to be the more important story.

Agree, economics will prove an interesting angle for every coming component of climate change. First the smaller islands, which have no prospects of ever having real economies, go hopelessly underwater economically, then the larger islands like PR which only limped along as a tax haven for pharmas, then the really big islands like North America which can only pay for so many katrinas, sandys, harveys, irmas, PRs, and St Croixs.

PR did not have deep pockets going into this; ironically the hurricane may give them a force majeure exit clause to their $72 billion debt. But who then would purchase the next go-round, hurricane redevelopment bonds?

PR is not a state; they are not represented in Congress, people cannot vote in elections. In terms of bond guarantees or massive federal aid to second-class citizens, not gonna happen. Instead, more millions will emigrate to NYC and Miami even as the flood of illegals into PR continues.

How Hedge Funds Are Pillaging Puerto Rico - The American Prospect
prospect.org/article/how-hedge-funds-are-pillaging-puerto-rico
Dec 11, 2015 - But looked at another way, Puerto Rico is just the latest battlefield for a phalanx of hedge funds called “vultures,” which pick at the withered ...

Hedge Funds That Flocked to Puerto Rico Bonds Face Long Road Out ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/.../hedge-funds-that-flocked-to-puerto-rico-bonds-face-l...
Apr 24, 2017 - Hedge funds first starting buying Puerto Rico debt in the summer of 2013 because they liked what they saw: A government that was paying high ...

Message of Puerto Rico Debt Crisis: Easy Bets Sometimes Lose - The ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/04/.../puerto-rico-creditors-hedge-funds.html?mcubz...
May 4, 2017 - When some of Wall Street's savviest hedge funds piled into Puerto Rico's debt in 2014, it seemed like an easy bet: Buy up the island's bonds at ...

Aurelius hedge fund seeks to toss Puerto Rico's bankruptcy filing
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-puertorico-debt-bankruptcy-idUSKBN1AN27H
Aug 7, 2017 - Puerto Rico's bankruptcy, aimed at restructuring $72 billion of debt, violates the U.S. Constitution and should be dismissed, the Aurelius Capital ...

That's the first extruded hurricane imagery we've seen, very effective in perspective. There's a link to the fabulous full resolution 5033 x 2795 pixel image below and a snippet at scale attached. It's a Modis infrared from Terra. It was made from the grayscale using a linear temperature assumption for the DEM, then draped with the same image in the palette shown:colder clouds higher in the atmosphere are white; warmer lower clouds appear purple etc.

We can make these in ImageJ using "3D Surface Plot", only nowhere near as nicely. The person who made the image is not credited.

https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/91000/91004/maria_tmo_2017263_lrg.png

The story that carries the image has some interesting bits:

The passage of the eye wall over 3,000-foot terrain must have resulted in incredible rainfall amounts—similar to Harvey but occurring in just a day,” said Stephen Munchak, a research meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91004

The highest elevations in PR are on Cerro de Punta at 4,390 feet (1,338 meters) and El Yunque at 3,494 feet (1,065 m). The mountain town of Caguas PR received almost 40" of rain in one day with 14.3" in one hour. The flow in the nearby river, the Rio Grande de Loiza, increased 200-fold, briefly exceeding 40,000 cfs.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2017, 12:55:04 PM by A-Team »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1070 on: September 21, 2017, 01:05:58 PM »
I can't fathom how terrifying it must be in Puerto Rico right now.
The entire island is without power, torrential rains are still falling.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910720636129071104
Heartbreaking video at the link.

Anatomy of a heartbreaking disaster:
Mountains helped make Maria's heavy rains worse, valleys enhanced the flood.
A worst case scenario.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910722759549911042
More at the lnk.

It's hard to imagine a worse day than the day Puerto Rico had today. Hurricane Maria & its flood have changed the lives of 3.5M people.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910724829585772544
     NWS San Jaun: Catastrophic Flash Flooding continues with multiple Flash Flood Warnings in effect. #prwx
     https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/status/910720038830821376

In *less than one day* parts of Puerto Rico have received 24-36"+ of rain.
For context: Houston had 32" in *three days* during Harvey. Wow.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910732185069596672

     Hurricane Maria Puerto Rico RAINFALL TOTALS update: 3 FEET! (USGS)
Caguas, PR: 36.28
Cidra: 28.70
Barranquitas: 25.84
Utuado: 19.61
https://twitter.com/accu_jesse/status/910663440213184512

A rain gauge near Caguas, Puerto Rico possibly set a new world record today:
12.37" fell in just 44min this morning.
http://gl1.chpc.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CAIP4&unit=0&time=&hours=24&hour1=05&day1=21&month1=09&year1=2017&radius=25&past=0&order=1

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910754539631935488
Graph at the link.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1071 on: September 21, 2017, 01:14:08 PM »
The rain gauge near Caguas, PR also measured 14.31" in one hour.
That's a candidate for the most ever, worldwide.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html%3Fentrynum=163.html
    https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910756868309561344

The flow in a nearby river, the Rio Grande de Loiza, increased 200-fold -- six times its previous record. Horrific.
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pr/nwis/uv?site_no=50055000
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910760542574346240

On Wednesday, Caguas, P.R. got more rain in a single day (39.67") than Seattle usually gets all year (37").
It's a brave new world.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910763035723264000
  See replies in image below.


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1072 on: September 21, 2017, 01:25:56 PM »
This Met Office video demonstrates the instruments they use to make rainfall observations, including the Tipping Bucket Raingauge.

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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1073 on: September 21, 2017, 04:08:23 PM »
People dress like that for work in the UK? Kneel on wet grass in dress pants, the stains will never come out.

PR is an impoverished US colony, sincerely doubt rural hamlets import rube goldberg tipping buckets from overseas. More likely for tropical storms, just have a 10' section of large diameter pvc pipe or culvert with sealed bottom stood on its end, no need for the amplification funnel on the top. Measure the height of a bobber after a big event or hourly just like a stream height gauge.

J Masters also thinks the really highest rain rates are artifactual but for different reasons:

Rainfall amounts in excess of 47 inches in 24 hours were recorded at three stations on the southwest side of El Yunque, the high mountainous area in the northeast corner of Puerto Rico; these are so extreme as to be unbelievable, and the gauges may have been impacted by flash flooding, or by a calibration problem at extreme precipitation rates:

96.65” at Quebrada Arenas, including 67.75” in one hour ending at 6 am.
72.07” at Barrio Montones, including 34.04” in one hour ending at 8:45 am.
47.25” at Rio Valenciano, including 19.66” in one hour ending at 7:11 am.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/maria-back-over-water-after-devastating-hit-puerto-rico

Maybe so but what is the point of all this record-keeping if whenever big numbers come in from people not dressed up for their Goldman Sachs interview, they are treated with great suspicion, the same with record temperatures from Pakistan, the assumption being brown people are dolts.

Stream gauges in the US: a torpedo-like device is lowered from an overhanging cable and its deflection by current measured in a cross section. As on the pivotal Colorado River and Paria River gauges at Lees Ferry. River gauges average over the whole upstream watershed collection area so aren't affected by wind; wet soil soon has negligible infiltration rates. USGS has river gauges because rain gauges do not provide a proxy.

From 3x identical gauges here in Tucson in monsoon events, horizontally blown rain from gusting winds can make a big difference by location.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1074 on: September 21, 2017, 05:20:14 PM »
"From 3x identical gauges here in Tucson in monsoon events, horizontally blown rain from gusting winds can make a big difference by location."

That was my question.  How can rain gauges be accurate in something like the hurricane videos I posted above, where the rain is coming down sideways? :o  I hoped there was some specially-designed instrument to do that....
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morganism

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1075 on: September 21, 2017, 08:49:49 PM »
aggregator of weather model pages here

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/


A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1076 on: September 21, 2017, 09:46:35 PM »
hoped there was some specially-designed instrument to ca measure rainfall in horizontal wind.
There is. It is called a storm sewer. The collection area is known, the inflow to the settling plant is measured, so the average volume per unit area of rainfall follows. Except that where I lived, people did illegal hookups of their sanitary sewer lines (until the city finally smoked out their vents). Clay soils and perched water table meant little lost there, the storm sewer lines leaked like crazy at their concrete joints but that too eventually gets to the plant.

I would guess at most San Juan would have a storm sewer system. The rest would just be uncontrolled runoff into nearby rivers or bays.

This doesn't work so well for the Colorado River catchment (Lake Powell water level at dam) because of drier soils, evaporation, ag and coal plant diversions, and sideways seepage into sandstone.

Where I live now, the rain just goes down the washes and sinks slowly through five thousand feet of alluvium. It would take tens of thousands of rain gauges to measure precip in Pima County AZ because the rain comes rarely but intensely in very localized thunderstorms. So they just use the airport gauge which has no relevance to people's lives or to climate change trends.

When I lived in Oregon, NWS threw out a rain gauge with 100 years of history for one of these self tipping buckets. They didn't overlap the two at all so there wasn't any way to know later which was biased when the big kink emerged from the data.

Where I lived on the Olympic Peninsula, the park twelve km up the road would get 12 meters of annual snowfall whereas in the rain shadow we got not so much as one flake. That always comes to mind when people here post nonsense like summer 2017 snowfall on the Arctic Ocean is just that recorded in 2-3 Canadian villages.

Temperature gauges have received tremendous scrutiny so all the weirdness like urban heat islands (aka Phoenix AZ) has been wrung out of those records. Rainfall, an OSU algorithm called PRISM, is modeling that now with some topographic precision.

My current impression: far fewer people are blogging this current hurricane ... not going to hit the US mainland so who cares. I have yet to see a sat phone twitter of the aftermath. Those don't need the electric grid, cell towers, phone poles or local internet. They're common around here, not that expensive any more.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1077 on: September 22, 2017, 01:26:33 AM »
RMS Estimates Hurricane Irma Insured Losses from Wind, Storm Surge and Inland Flood Damage will be Between USD $35 and $55 Billion
The overall economic losses are estimated to be significantly higher, between $60 and $95 billion
LONDON, U.K. - September 20, 2017 -
RMS, a global risk modeling and analytics firm, has estimated that the insured loss from Hurricane Irma will be between $35 and $55 billion. This estimate represents the insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and inland flood damage across Florida and the southeast United States (including losses to the National Flood Insurance Program). It also includes insured loss associated with wind and storm surge in the Caribbean.

RMS Best Industry Loss Estimate by Peril and Geography, in US$ Billions
Region   
              Total Insured Losses
               (including to NFIP)   
                             Total Economic Losses
United States     25 - 35        35 - 50
Caribbean         10 - 20        25 - 45
Total             35 - 55        60 - 95


Included in the industry estimate are losses to the National Flood Insurance Program of $2.5 to $5.5 billion that will add to the $7-10 billion estimated from Hurricane Harvey that occurred two weeks earlier. ...
http://www.rms.com/newsroom/press-releases/press-detail/2017-09-20/rms-estimates-hurricane-irma-insured-losses-from-wind-storm-surge-and-inland-flood-damage-will-be-between-usd-35-and-55-billion
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1078 on: September 22, 2017, 01:28:44 AM »
The 2017 Atlantic season is still plugging along, but has already reached well-above average activity. October could bring more surprises.
https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/910903807684616194
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1079 on: September 22, 2017, 01:33:39 AM »
Michael E. Mann: If U don't believe unusually warm Sea Surface Temperatures meant more flooding from Harvey, you're a physics denier: 

"What We Know about the Climate Change–Hurricane Connection
Some links are indisputable; others are more subtle, but the science is improving all the time.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/what-we-know-about-the-climate-change-hurricane-connection/

     https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/910894954981023744


"Physics is a hoax invented by the Chinese"
https://twitter.com/Byteshift69/status/910952087638478850
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1080 on: September 22, 2017, 02:34:21 AM »
#Maria is becoming annular. Annular storms feature a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick and uniform ring of intense convection
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/911022573311455232
GIF with additional images at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1081 on: September 22, 2017, 02:36:34 AM »
Hong Kong gets my vote for best climate change poster.
     https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/911021589889560576
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1082 on: September 22, 2017, 02:40:39 AM »
Large eye of Hurricane #Maria approaching the Turks and Caicos Islands with 125 mph winds
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
     https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedStorm/status/911020491430805504
      IR Satellite GIF at this link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1083 on: September 22, 2017, 02:42:53 AM »
NWS Boston: At 825 this evening Nantucket reached 4.00 inches of rain for the event ( Jose) Much more closer to the center.
https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/911025236514164736
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1084 on: September 22, 2017, 01:34:23 PM »
Sensible, non-dramatic reporting and comments on this busier-than-usual hurricane season. A rarity these days!

  Hurricanes: A perfect storm of chance and climate change?
  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-41347527
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/911130678120652800
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1085 on: September 22, 2017, 01:38:47 PM »
The scale of the devastation in Puerto Rico is truly epic. The governor’s spox says entire communities are now gone
https://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeednews/maria-1
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/911054237559283712
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1086 on: September 22, 2017, 07:55:01 PM »
NWS San Juan seems to be treating the Caguas, PR data as accurate, at least preliminarily

Preliminary Major Hurricane Maria Estimated Rainfall across Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands. #prwx #usviwx
     https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/910983698597777409
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1087 on: September 22, 2017, 08:40:26 PM »
NWS San Juan:
215PM FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for A Dam Failure in Isabela Municipality y Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico... #prwx

At 210 PM, dam operators reported the Guajataca Dam is failing causing flash flooding downstream on the Rio Guajataca.  #PRWX

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  Busses are currently evacuating people from the area as quickly as they can #prwx
https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/status/911294241460105218
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1088 on: September 22, 2017, 08:46:42 PM »
The Guajataca Dam was built in 1929.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2017, 09:04:06 PM by Sigmetnow »
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sidd

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1089 on: September 22, 2017, 08:48:12 PM »
Re: financial impact of Maria on Puerto Rico

1) 1.6 million housing units
2) 500K active mortgages, 10% delinquent, 5.8% over 90 days overdue
3) 50% of houses covered by policies for wind damage
3) Universal Insurance Group of Puerto Rico, Mapfre SA and Cooperativa Seguros Group are the main private insurers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-maria-exposes-a-common-problem-for-puerto-rico-homeowners-no-insurance-1505940660

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1090 on: September 22, 2017, 10:17:22 PM »
more detail on Puerto Rico (the very name "Rich Port" is a travesty)

44% of the population below poverty line, 1/3 energy consumption per capita and 1/2 CO2 exhaust

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22092017/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-congress-recovery-aid-poverty-climate-change

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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1091 on: September 23, 2017, 01:59:20 AM »
Looks like the spillway is eroding back as a growing headcut and the gates are gone; the concrete spillway walls are still in place and the dam berm itself is not failing. Not clear that the entire reservoir will drain nor how quickly. The press coverage to date is sensationalistic and completely wrong [on the structural aspects of dam failure]
« Last Edit: September 23, 2017, 02:12:08 PM by A-Team »

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1092 on: September 23, 2017, 03:12:56 AM »
I think reporting on the order to evacuate 70,000 people, and repeating the warnings from Puerto Rican officials, is completely appropriate.  Communication is limited, and all points of imminent failure may not be visible in the video.  Might be overblown -- but with night falling, the risk is undeniable.

NWS San Juan:  All Areas surrounding the Guajataca River should evacuate NOW. Their lives are in DANGER! Please SHARE! #prwx
https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/status/911318089861562368

Puerto Rico evacuates 70,000 after dam fails in Hurricane Maria's wake
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/22/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-dam

We just received new video of the dam failure coming out of Lake Guajataca, PR.
https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/911369885577441280
Aerial video at the link.

Breaking: #PuertoRico Dam  FAILING - 70 THOUSAND NOW UNDER EMERGENCY EVACUATION. OFFICIALS SAYING A CRACK IS  FORMING IN THE GUAJATACA DAM.
https://twitter.com/RobMarciano/status/911339820533895169
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1093 on: September 23, 2017, 03:23:00 AM »
I posted the top image earlier, then deleted it because I wasn't sure it was related to the dam.  From the video (second image), it does appear to be.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1094 on: September 23, 2017, 03:33:19 AM »
8pm update:
Latest #Maria forecast from NHC. Track again shifts a little further to the west. Continue to monitor.
https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/911395540537049088
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1095 on: September 23, 2017, 08:20:49 AM »

A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1096 on: September 23, 2017, 02:22:04 PM »
wasn't sure it was related to the dam.  From the video (second image), it does appear to be.
No, it appears to be a road downstream of the dam, a failing bridge over the river. Note the cars are parked and have not been moved off, suggesting the event has peaked and no dam failure is anticipated.

The warnings may or may not have been appropriate depending on the acre-feet stored behind the dam at what depth and how much a slow headcut above a failed spillway affects river height downstream of the immediate gorge.

It looks to me like the dam itself is in no danger because water level in the reservoir had already dropped or been intentionally lowered. This is not quite Oroville and not at all like Addicks Reservoir or the 1928 catastrophic dike failure at Okeechobee.

My grievance is with an echo-chamber US press which did not analyze the photos at all, run them by an engineer, or so much as look at the 'before' which takes ten seconds at Google Earth, and so hyped structural damage misinformation which makes better click-bait than a broken floodgate and  a river running too high.

It's fine to repeat warnings from PR authorities whether they're justified or not, it's their call. However as they know, distribution of the warning would be highly ineffectual because of downed communication systems all over the island. I'm skeptical that a thousand buses and drivers were available, that roads and bridges were open, and that 70k people were evacuated under these conditions. To where?

Dam operators had plenty of time to lower reservoir levels prior to the storm and no doubt did. However in many mainland communities, dam construction is soon followed by home construction in the river's former one-year flood plain. And this will be the case too in rural PR where buildable land is scarce, people are poor, and little or no regulation is operative.

Problems soon follow because only so many cfs can safely be released from a dam. During a rainier than average rainy season, the operators may have to release too many cfs for too long relative to flood stage and spillway capacity or water will overtop the dam, as in Houston. Here the terrain looks so rugged that they may have built more to the sides. Still, there could be towns downriver.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2017, 03:22:31 PM by A-Team »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1097 on: September 23, 2017, 07:12:18 PM »
wasn't sure it was related to the dam.  From the video (second image), it does appear to be.
No, it appears to be a road downstream of the dam, a failing bridge over the river. Note the cars are parked and have not been moved off, suggesting the event has peaked and no dam failure is anticipated.

The bridge is "related" to the dam in that, as you say, it is just downstream, illustrating the damage to important infrastructure already happening, likely affecting evacuations.  Unfortunately, I did not get a another screen shot from that first video, because the camera turned 180° and showed the river well out of its banks and flooding the entire river valley.  Clearly, that is an emergency situation. 

In my search, I only saw one, tabloid-ish piece that mentioned anything like "a potential wall of water"; the rest noted the flash flood warning or flash flood emergency, as indeed it was.  A "dam failure" message quickly gets across the fact that much more water is coming than the river can hold, and flooding will immediately reach life-threatening levels.  The general public doesn't much care about what specifically is happening at the dam, they just need to know the people in its path need to move to safety, right away.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1098 on: September 23, 2017, 07:14:08 PM »
Atlantic ocean temperatures remain much above normal -- argues for a continued active hurricane season in late Sept and October.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/911356134048649216
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1099 on: September 23, 2017, 07:25:11 PM »
The final Advisory from @NHC_Atlantic for #Jose is hilarious! "After 70 advisories, enough is enough"
https://twitter.com/JamesSinko/status/911330848812752896
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