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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1150 on: October 01, 2017, 03:04:13 AM »
Houston

Developers say more analysis needed before boosting flood regulation
Developers agree to further study on boosting regulations
Quote
...
Of the roughly 33,000 homes that flooded in unincorporated Harris County, two thirds were outside the 100-year floodplain, County Engineer John Blount said Friday. About 1,600 homes that meet the county's existing floodplain and elevation regulations - most recently updated in 2009 - flooded during Harvey.

The county requires that homes in the 100-year floodplain be built at least 18 inches above the base flood level.

Developers said Friday that, in general, few homes or developments are built in existing floodplains.

Blount said about 2,000 homes have been built in the 100-year floodplain during the last seven years. He could not provide numbers of how many homes or developments are in the 500-year floodplain, which the county generally does not monitor. ...
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/houston/amp/Developers-say-more-analysis-needed-before-12242189.php
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1151 on: October 01, 2017, 03:14:48 AM »
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1152 on: October 01, 2017, 04:07:20 AM »
US Army says with more rain falling, engineers are trying to stabilize the Guajataca Dam spillway on Puerto Rico which "continues to erode".
https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/914201939969155072
More info at the link.

From NHC

Quote
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
/snip
2. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and showers extending from the eastern Caribbean Sea northward across the Leeward Islands, Virgin islands, and Puerto Rico to the nearby Atlantic waters.  Environmental conditions are not favorable for development and tropical cyclone formation is not forecast.  This system is expected to move west-northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days bringing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and the Greater Antilles during the next several days.  A Flash Flood Watch in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through late Sunday night.

Quote
More 'Potentially Life-Threatening' Rain and Flooding Threatens Puerto Rico
Just more than a week after Hurricane Maria battered Puerto Rico, another round of heavy rain threatens to worsen the already dire situation.

According to an alert issued by the National Weather Service on Friday, the U.S. territory is in risk of "potentially life-threatening flash flooding" in areas around the damaged Guajataca Dam and heavy rainfall up to four inches is expected across the island.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1153 on: October 01, 2017, 02:04:12 PM »
Puerto Rico:  U.S. Department of Defense situational update, Sept. 30:
Quote
...
-- Forty-five percent of customers have access to drinking water. Ninety-five percent of customers remain without power; power has been restored to San Juan airport and marine terminals.

-- Eight hundred and fifty-one of 1,100 retail gas stations have reopened and purchase limits have been lifted. Forty-nine percent of grocery and big box stores are open.

-- Erosion repairs to the Guajataca Dam are scheduled to begin Oct. 1-2.

-- The Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort departed Norfolk, Virginia, yesterday and it is estimated to arrive in Puerto Rico on Oct. 4.

-- Five of six FEMA-priority sea ports are open or open with restrictions; surveys of Ponce and Roosevelt Roads are ongoing. ...

Quote
-- The Guajataca Dam spillway continues to erode; immediate risk reduction measures are ongoing to stabilize the dam spillway. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports two to three inches of rain has fallen, and an additional two to four inches each day over the next two days is possible.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1330501/dod-accelerates-hurricane-relief-response-efforts-in-puerto-rico/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1154 on: October 01, 2017, 02:16:05 PM »
Electricity, Fuel and Port status.  List of Emergency waivers in effect.  U.S. mainland and the Carribean.

U.S. Department of Energy, Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration
Hurricanes Maria, Irma, and Harvey
September 30 Event Summary

Quote
...
Electricity Sector Summary (as of 10:30 AM EDT Saturday)
• Puerto Rico: Approximately 95% of customers in Puerto Rico remain without power. The airport, marine terminal, and several hospitals have been energized. Damage assessments and restoration efforts continue focusing on critical facilities. Assessments show significant damage to transmission and distribution systems.
• USVI: As of Friday, September 29, approximately 15% of customers on St. Thomas and 10% of customers on St. Croix have been restored, including critical facilities such as the airports and hospitals. A team from the Western Area Power Administration is providing mutual aid on St. Thomas and additional mutual aid crews, materials, and equipment are expected.
• DOE is working closely with the local governments, FEMA, and industry to facilitate mutual aid.

Oil and Natural Gas Sector Summary (as of 10:30 AM EDT Saturday)
• Fuel supplies remain an area of focus across the region; however, the situation is stabilizing.
• DOE, FEMA, DLA, and other Federal partners are working to facilitate fuel deliveries across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for generators at critical facilities and response efforts.
• DOE is working with EIA to assess fuel supplies and to the status of facilities in the region. ...

https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/09/f37/Hurricanes%20Maria%20Irma%20Harvey%20Event%20Summary%20September%2030.pdf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1155 on: October 01, 2017, 02:21:09 PM »
September 2017 set Atlantic calendar month records for named storm days: 53.5, #hurricane days: 34.5, major hurricane days: 18, ACE: 175
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/914256202229354496
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sidd

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1156 on: October 02, 2017, 09:15:53 PM »
Black Knight august mortgage monito has a section on hurricane Harvey and Irma impacts:

Harvey:

"There are roughly 1.18M borrowers in the 39-county Hurricane Harvey-related FEMA disaster area ..."
" ... upwards of 80 percent of impacted properties may not be carrying flood insurance ..."
"... as many as 300k borrowers may miss at least one payment, with up to 160k borrowers becoming seriously past due ..."

Irma:

" Of the 3.2M borrowers impacted by Irma, an estimated 170K were still in negative equity positions before the storm, with another 180K having less than 10 percent equity in their homes ..."

Read all about it:

www.bkfs.com/Data/DataReports/BKFS_MM_Aug2017_Report.pdf


sidd

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1157 on: October 03, 2017, 01:15:23 AM »
Houston

The EPA confirmed that Hurricane Harvey damaged a protective cap at a Superfund site along the San Jacinto River, near Houston, and caused a spike in chemical levels in the water. Water samples from one of 14 monitoring sites at the San Jacinto waste pits indicated levels of dioxin above 70,000 parts per trillion, more than 2,000 times higher than the site's cleanup goal of 30 parts per trillion. Dioxin is a cancer-causing chemical that stays in the environment for hundreds of years before breaking down.

EPA Statement – San Jacinto River Waste Pits Superfund Site Data
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-statement-san-jacinto-river-waste-pits-superfund-site-data
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1158 on: October 03, 2017, 05:02:57 PM »
JUST IN: The USNS Comfort hospital ship has arrived in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Gov. Rossello says.
https://twitter.com/nbcnightlynews/status/915218016023072770

Oxfam, an internationall aid organization -- usually to poorer countries -- will assist Puerto Rico, after calling U.S. response "inadequate".
http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/02/politics/oxfam-criticizes-us-government-response/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1159 on: October 04, 2017, 10:21:45 PM »
Here is the full model spread for #TD16/#Nate.
First: Nicaragua & Honduras, then possibly Yucatan.
Next: Anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/915592535522922496
First image below.

Tropical Depression 16 has formed near Central America.
NHC expects it to hit Florida as a hurricane on Sunday. It'll get the name #Nate.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/915590021540978688
Second image below.

Wow, rapid intensification looks likely for #Nate:
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/72hr RI threshold = 63% is 10.5 times sample mean (6.0%)
   Translation:
#TD16/#Nate is about 3 days until landfall btw Louisiana and Florida. Conditions are prime for strengthening, psbly to Cat 2+
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/915671799240814592



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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1160 on: October 04, 2017, 10:23:07 PM »
Three of the main conditions look especially favorable: Very warm ocean waters, low wind shear, moist surrounding environment. Ideal, really
The main barrier #Nate will have to rapid strengthening will be its passage near or over land: Nicaragua, Honduras, Yucatan and/or Cuba.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/915672486561435648
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1161 on: October 04, 2017, 11:16:17 PM »
2.5 minute NASA video:

Four hurricanes rapidly intensified in 2017. We study this process to know more & improve time to prepare & evacuate   

     https://twitter.com/nasa/status/915634699648819201
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1162 on: October 05, 2017, 02:54:30 PM »
#Nate is expected to make landfall near New Orleans as a hurricane on Sunday.
Conditions ripe for rapid strengthening, so watch it closely.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/915921827226058752
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1163 on: October 05, 2017, 05:05:25 PM »
Nate.  11am update is out.

Quote
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras and Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches, isolated 12 inches
Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/051446.shtml?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1164 on: October 05, 2017, 05:21:05 PM »
Both the European (Windy) and American (HWRF) models (see respective images) currently show Hurricane Nate hitting New Orleans by Sunday morning Oct 8th.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1165 on: October 05, 2017, 05:46:13 PM »
Houston

Developers say more analysis needed before boosting flood regulation
Developers agree to further study on boosting regulations
Quote
...

Blount said about 2,000 homes have been built in the 100-year floodplain during the last seven years. He could not provide numbers of how many homes or developments are in the 500-year floodplain, which the county generally does not monitor. ...
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/houston/amp/Developers-say-more-analysis-needed-before-12242189.php

Given that Houston has suffered from three 500 year floods in the past three years, not tracking the number of homes built in 500 year flood plains seems.....uhh.....moronic?

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1166 on: October 05, 2017, 05:55:01 PM »
Black Knight august mortgage monito has a section on hurricane Harvey and Irma impacts:

Harvey:

"There are roughly 1.18M borrowers in the 39-county Hurricane Harvey-related FEMA disaster area ..."
" ... upwards of 80 percent of impacted properties may not be carrying flood insurance ..."
"... as many as 300k borrowers may miss at least one payment, with up to 160k borrowers becoming seriously past due ..."

Irma:

" Of the 3.2M borrowers impacted by Irma, an estimated 170K were still in negative equity positions before the storm, with another 180K having less than 10 percent equity in their homes ..."

Read all about it:

www.bkfs.com/Data/DataReports/BKFS_MM_Aug2017_Report.pdf


sidd

I have argued this point before on other threads but as these weather disasters increase in frequency and size (and they will) the effect will be that hundreds of thousands of people will simply walk away from their properties and file for bankruptcy. The impact on the financial industry will eventually make the 2007 housing crisis seem small in comparison.

The banks will take possession of properties that are essentially worthless with little prospect of redevelopment.

This scenario will play out across the country, anywhere that communities are facing increasing risk of weather disasters due to climate change.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1167 on: October 05, 2017, 06:26:34 PM »
Houston

The EPA confirmed that Hurricane Harvey damaged a protective cap at a Superfund site along the San Jacinto River, near Houston, and caused a spike in chemical levels in the water. Water samples from one of 14 monitoring sites at the San Jacinto waste pits indicated levels of dioxin above 70,000 parts per trillion, more than 2,000 times higher than the site's cleanup goal of 30 parts per trillion. Dioxin is a cancer-causing chemical that stays in the environment for hundreds of years before breaking down.

EPA Statement – San Jacinto River Waste Pits Superfund Site Data
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-statement-san-jacinto-river-waste-pits-superfund-site-data

The San Jacinto drains the largest watershed in the Houston metro area and is located just north of Interstate 10 (click google link) in a marshy, lowland area that extends all the way to Galveston Bay.

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.6100625,-95.0303245,10z

The current EPA clean up strategy is to remove material that is most contaminated and monitor the site after removal.

https://www.epa.gov/tx/sjrwp

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1168 on: October 05, 2017, 06:37:11 PM »
Both the European (Windy) and American (HWRF) models (see respective images) currently show Hurricane Nate hitting New Orleans by Sunday morning Oct 8th.

Rapid intensification is anticipated. What category is expected at landfall? Katrina was a large category 3 at landfall. This could be a disaster. I guess we get to see how well we have strengthened defenses in New Orleans.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1169 on: October 05, 2017, 06:43:57 PM »
Both the European (Windy) and American (HWRF) models (see respective images) currently show Hurricane Nate hitting New Orleans by Sunday morning Oct 8th.

Rapid intensification is anticipated. What category is expected at landfall? Katrina was a large category 3 at landfall. This could be a disaster. I guess we get to see how well we have strengthened defenses in New Orleans.

But as we've seen in recent years/months: even Cat 1 or 2 storms can cause a major disaster, due to the rain, not the wind.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1170 on: October 05, 2017, 07:09:53 PM »
What category is expected at landfall?

All I know is that per the attached NOAA forecast, when Nate is directly over New Orleans, sustained wind speeds are expected to be in the 74 to 110 mph range.
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1171 on: October 05, 2017, 07:50:53 PM »
What category is expected at landfall?

All I know is that per the attached NOAA forecast, when Nate is directly over New Orleans, sustained wind speeds are expected to be in the 74 to 110 mph range.

So, a category 1 or 2.

With the current Gulf water temperatures...

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/temps_gulf.html

...and a recent tendency for hurricanes to rapidly intensify as well as near perfect conditions for intensification, could they be underestimating the strength at landfall?

oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1172 on: October 05, 2017, 09:34:54 PM »
Current official NHC forecast calls for 80 mph (Cat 1) before landfall, however rapid intensification is possible and then it would be above that.
My personal gut feeling, based on this year's craziness, is that it could easily become a major hurricane. Hope not though.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1173 on: October 06, 2017, 01:45:14 AM »
Tropical Storm Nate Blamed for 22 Deaths; Threatens US Coast
Quote
Managua, Nicaragua (AP) -- Newly formed Tropical Storm Nate was blamed Thursday for at least 22 deaths across Central America as it dumped rain across the region on a path that would carry it toward a potential landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast as a hurricane over the weekend.

Louisiana officials ordered some people to evacuate coastal areas and barrier islands, and evacuations began at some offshore oil platforms in the Gulf.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm could cause dangerous flooding by dumping as much as 15 to 20 inches (38 to 50 centimeters) of rain as it moved over Honduras, with higher accumulations in a few places.

It had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) by Thursday afternoon and was likely to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday before a possible strike on the Cancun region at the tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula at near-hurricane strength. It could hit the U.S. Gulf coast near New Orleans over the weekend at hurricane strength.

In Nicaragua, Nate's arrival followed two weeks of near-constant rain that had left the ground saturated and rivers swollen. Authorities placed the whole country on alert and warned of flooding and landslides. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-05/system-growing-off-central-america-could-hit-us-as-hurricane
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1174 on: October 06, 2017, 01:54:27 AM »
Although moving over 'boiling hot' (not really, but definitely hot and deep) water occasionally, Nate's quick crossing of the Gulf of Mexico is likely to impede rapid intensification (there) after some amount of Yucatan (over land - perhaps limited) disruption.  I recommend to folks Levi's Tropical Tidbits for education and elucidation.

Also, due to Nate's expected rapid forward motion, rain amounts in Louisiana and parts east will unlikely be catastrophic.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1175 on: October 06, 2017, 01:55:09 AM »
Corps releases details on Guajataca Dam spillway mitigation efforts in Puerto Rico
Quote
On Tuesday, the Corps said at the direction of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and in support of the government of Puerto Rico: The Corps, Department of Defense and PREPA are taking measures to “slow the erosion of Guajataca Dam’s damaged spillway.”
...
According to reports today from the Independent, aircraft are lifting concrete barriers and placing them at the damaged area of the Guajataca Dam.
...
According to the Corps, stabilizing the spillway to prevent further deterioration will be a two-phase operation.

The U.S. 26th Marine Expedition Unit is currently placing nearly 350 concrete jersey barriers, attaching cables from the barriers to Marine helicopters and lifting the barriers for placement at the bottom of the dam. The Corps will then strategically position the barriers into place against the damaged spillway.

Personnel from the Pennsylvania National Guard will then place hundreds of “supersacks” filled with sand to further reinforce this emergency action. On Sept. 30, the U.S. Transportation Command delivered 900 super sandbags for spillway stabilization to Aguadilla Airport, a joint civil-military airport located on the island in Aguadilla.

Corps engineer in charge of the Guajataca Dam stabilization, Lt. Col. Roberto Solorzarno, in published news reports said, “All that water is just being held by this thin line. If we get maybe another 10 or 11 inches in a few days, then we will really have an issue.”

Keeping the spillway functional, according to the Corps, is important because it channels water around the dam when the water gets too close to the top of the dam.

“We are ready to support PREPA with these Department of Defense assets to accomplish this vital mission for the people of Puerto Rico,” said Col. Jim DeLapp, commander of the Corps’ Puerto Rico Recovery Field Office. “This critical emergency measure is an important first step in stabilizing the dam to allow for further remediation actions.”
...
http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2017/10/corps-releases-details-on-guajataca-dam-spillway-mitigation-efforts-in-puerto-rico.html

Photo: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers personnel attach cables to jersey barriers that will then be sling loaded by helicopters and placed at the bottom of the dam.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1176 on: October 06, 2017, 02:00:30 AM »
Although moving over 'boiling hot' (not really, but definitely hot and deep) water occasionally, Nate's quick crossing of the Gulf of Mexico is likely to impede rapid intensification (there) after some amount of Yucatan (over land - perhaps limited) disruption.  I recommend to folks Levi's Tropical Tidbits for education and elucidation.

Also, due to Nate's expected rapid forward motion, rain amounts in Louisiana and parts east will unlikely be catastrophic.

The Weather Channel mentioned that parts of the Gulf in Nate's path are as hot as 91°F (32.8°C)!
Also, upper air currents in Nate's projected path over the Gulf are weak, so wind shear will be minimal.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1177 on: October 06, 2017, 02:22:08 AM »
8pm update continues to show Nate over the New Orleans region at landfall in the U.S.
Of note is that 12 of New Orleans' 120 drainage pumps are still out of service after an August rainstorm.
http://grist.org/briefly/tropical-storm-nate-could-hit-the-gulf-coast-as-a-hurricane-this-weekend/amp/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1178 on: October 06, 2017, 02:27:19 AM »
Precipitation forecast through 00Z Wednesday Oct 11.
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1179 on: October 06, 2017, 04:31:36 AM »
Rain forecast does not look bad.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1180 on: October 06, 2017, 01:13:43 PM »
3-day QPF through 12Z Monday, in inches.  Nate will not be another Harvey, rainwise.  But the southern Appalachian mountains (near the ”7.56”) are still recovering from devastaing wildfires last year.  Landslides and flooding will be a real risk.  And New Orleans pumps are not built to handle 6 inches (150mm) of rain in such a short time.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1181 on: October 06, 2017, 01:22:52 PM »
"Do you know how long some places could be without power? Up to a year." @DavidBegnaud on Puerto Rico, [last night] on @PBS
https://twitter.com/charlieroseshow/status/916093760148332544



Puerto Rico's governor has reached out to Elon Musk (via Twitter, naturally) to discuss clean energy solutions for restoring PR's power grid.

Quote
Ricardo Rosello: @elonMusk Let's talk. Do you want to show the world the power and scalability of your #TeslaTechnologies? PR could be that flagship project.

Elon Musk: The Tesla team has done this for many smaller islands around the world, but there is no scalability limit, so it can be done for Puerto Rico too. Such a decision would be in the hands of the PR govt, PUC, any commercial stakeholders and, most importantly, the people of PR
I would be happy to talk. Hopefully, Tesla can be helpful.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/916234148104118272


Puerto Rico Has a Once In a Lifetime Opportunity to Rethink How It Gets Electricity
https://earther.com/puerto-rico-has-a-once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity-to-ret-1819143446/amp
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1182 on: October 06, 2017, 09:01:57 PM »
Houston

October 3: "A month after Hurricane Harvey hit our area, the Barker and Addicks reservoirs are still not empty."  Addicks Reservoir 18.5%, Barker 26.5% full.

Short video, with aerial views:
http://www.khou.com/news/local/houston-reservoirs-still-not-empty-/480664142

Edit:
Can flooded-out Houstonians win lawsuits against Army Corps?

During Tropical Storm Harvey, the federal agency released a torrent from Houston's two reservoirs, knowing it would flood properties downstream. Now, flooded property owners on both sides of the reservoirs are demanding compensation.
Quote
Whether the Army Corps had to release such large quantities of water during Harvey — which filled the reservoirs to record levels in two days — to prevent an even worse disaster such as a dam failure is sure to become a major issue in the downstream lawsuits. The agency has estimated that a dam failure would result in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in damage.

No one is questioning whether the Army Corps made the right call when it opened the floodgates, lawyer Derrick Carson, a partner at Locke Lord in Houston, said in a podcast on the mega-firm’s eminent domain blog: “They were making rational decision for the greater good, but when they flooded few people to save the many, the question becomes: What are you going to do to compensate the few?”
https://www.texastribune.org/2017/09/28/will-flooded-out-houstonians-prevail-lawsuits-against-army-corps/amp/
« Last Edit: October 06, 2017, 09:23:37 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1183 on: October 06, 2017, 09:37:43 PM »
Nate 1pm update:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1184 on: October 06, 2017, 09:39:53 PM »
From the 1pm Nate update:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through this weekend:

Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches
Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches,
max 8 inches
Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches

U.S. Central Gulf Coast states, eastern Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.
...


Image:  3-day QPF through 00Z Tuesday
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1185 on: October 06, 2017, 09:45:54 PM »
Quote
Day 16:
The situation is still very, very dire in Puerto Rico.
89.3% w/o power
44.5% w/o water
58% w/o cell service
44.5% of banks closed
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/916366443113013248
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1186 on: October 07, 2017, 01:28:00 PM »
@NHC_Atlantic 24h ago, #Nate was a minimal tropical storm.
Now, a quickly strengthening Cat 1 hurricane.
Officially, +35mph/24hrs is rapid intensification

SHIPS models gives a 47% chance #Nate will be a Cat 2.
10% chance it will be a Cat 3.
Rapid intensification much more likely than normal.

In a reasonable worst case scenario, New Orleans could see 5-8 feet of storm surge from #Nate.
Enough to stress levees.
Sounds serious.

@NHC_Atlantic Conditions are nearly ideal for rapid intensification to continue until #Nate makes landfall Sat night.
Only downfall is fast forward speed.

@NHC_Atlantic If a hurricane is moving too quickly over water, it can't organize as easily & central core can become tilted. Diff to reach Cat 3+ that way

@NHC_Atlantic But everything else: v. warm water, low wind shear, high humidity in surrounding environment—all point toward no holds barred strengthening.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/916509059435712513
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1187 on: October 07, 2017, 01:31:58 PM »
9 consecutive Atlantic named storms have reached hurricane (Franklin-#Nate) - the most consec Atlantic NS to reach hurricane since 1893.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/916518620468875265
Radar GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1188 on: October 07, 2017, 01:40:42 PM »
Solid signal for Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in parts of [Kentucky/Tennessee]. Fits conceptual models well. Signal in global + hi-res models. #Nate
https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/916596193177849857
More data/images at the link.

"Predecessor Rain Events ahead of Tropical Cyclones. ... PREs are high-impact weather events that can often result in significant inland flooding, either from the PRE itself or from the subsequent arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC that falls onto soils already saturated by the PRE."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1189 on: October 07, 2017, 01:43:42 PM »
NWS Atlanta:  10/7 6AM: Hurricane #Nate still expected to move across NW GA Sunday. Flash flooding, strong winds and tornadoes all possible. #gawx
https://twitter.com/NWSAtlanta/status/916613901479038976
Images at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1190 on: October 07, 2017, 01:48:26 PM »
#Nate has potential for water levels 10ft or more above normal along [Mississippi/Alabama] coast. Shallow coastal waters quickly become storm surge!
https://twitter.com/RLuettich/status/916624413046517760

Hurricane #Nate racing toward landfall, bringing big storm surge concerns
http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2017/10/hurricane-nate-racing-toward-landfall.html
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1191 on: October 07, 2017, 01:56:42 PM »
Still a week to go. But the entire area is going to get plenty of rain before he arrives.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1192 on: October 07, 2017, 09:09:55 PM »
The forward speed of #Nate is really remarkable for the Gulf. This is going to come in like a wall...bring destructive winds well inland.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/916728430506467329
GIF at the link.

NWS New Orleans:  #ICYMI Our 6'6" MIC w/ 11ft pole. THAT'S how high water could get along coast MS River to [Mississippi/Alabama] line. If under evac order LEAVE NOW! #Nate
https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/916733154471407616

Tonight's full moon high tide will arrive around midnight in coastal MS, just as #Nate is making landfall.
A worst-case for this storm.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/916735935404036096
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1193 on: October 07, 2017, 09:18:49 PM »
From the NHC 1pm update:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.9 West.  Nate is moving
rapidly toward the north-northwest near 25 mph (40 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening.
  A turn
toward the north is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Nate will
approach the mouth of the Mississippi during the next several hours
and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf Coast tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.
  Strengthening is expected before landfall, and Nate is
forecast to be a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale when the center reaches the Gulf Coast.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km),
primarily to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/071737.shtml
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1194 on: October 07, 2017, 09:26:50 PM »
From the CBS This Morning meteorologist:

Because of Harvey, Irma and Maria...there's hurricane fatigue. People being complacent about a Cat 2. Big mistake. Nate surge = catastrophic
https://twitter.com/DPartlyCloudy/status/916742939950419968

An 11ft (3.35m) storm surge, if it hits Mississippi tonight, would be either the 3rd or 4th highest on record there.
Do not minimize this storm.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/916745733612752899

Source: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_us_records.asp
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1195 on: October 07, 2017, 09:35:45 PM »
NWS San Juan:

Flood Advisory. Advertencia de Inundaciones. Until/Hasta… 5:30 PM AST. #prwx
ht.ly/4AQo30fImcj
https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/916735718055170049
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1196 on: October 07, 2017, 10:01:41 PM »
Sea levels have risen 8 inches since 1980 in coastal Mississippi, and the rate of increase is accelerating.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8747437

     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/916754120450756608
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1197 on: October 08, 2017, 12:27:41 AM »
Google gets green light to fly 30 balloons over Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands to provide cellular connectivity
https://www.wired.com/story/google-closer-to-using-balloons-for-telecom-in-puerto-rico/amp

     https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/916781030404739072
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1198 on: October 08, 2017, 12:50:50 AM »
Quote
Day 17:
The situation is still very, very dire in Puerto Rico.
88% w/o power
44% w/o water
56% w/o phone service
42% of banks closed
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/916762085878616070

Source:
http://status.pr
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1199 on: October 08, 2017, 03:47:53 AM »
Puerto Rico Gov.: Talking about the vulnerable situation of the Guajataca Dam and the efforts to avoid its collapse. #PRStrong
https://twitter.com/ricardorossello/status/916732540882509825
Photos at the link.


Not sure this is the best video clip to publish on Twitter....  :o

.@USMC #Marines control a single point pendant aboard a #CH53 Super Stallion while reinforcing the Guajataca Dam, #Puerto Rico.
https://twitter.com/deptofdefense/status/916483225882566657
Video at the link.
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