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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1200 on: October 08, 2017, 03:00:27 PM »
Hurricane Nate weakens to a tropical storm after making US landfall twice
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/10/08/us/hurricane-nate-landfall/index.html

“#Nate Was Only a Category 1” - these kinds of impacts should hopefully remove that phrase from the media & public.
     https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/916950438410407937
#StormSurge coming into lobby of Golden Nugget casino in Biloxi #HurricaneNate
https://twitter.com/miketheiss/status/916880612111343616
Video at the link.

#Nate's storm surge exceeds 6ft in SE Mississippi! Here is map of peak surge levels so far #HurricaneNate #stormsurge
https://twitter.com/Hal_Needham/status/916970288411226112

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina:
#Nate has moved inland and weakened to a tropical storm. We still expect heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes today/this PM.
https://twitter.com/NWSGSP/status/916967392370098177
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1201 on: October 08, 2017, 03:03:08 PM »
After reviewing PR/VI/HI, only 3 other seasons in past 50 years with at least 4 #hurricanes making U.S. landfall.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2017-10-07-four-us-hurricane-landfalls-nate-maria-irma-harvey
     https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/916971005335212032
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bligh8

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1202 on: October 08, 2017, 03:43:20 PM »
Science Says: Era of monster hurricanes roiling the Atlantic

(shades of Hansen)


It's not just this year. The monster hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, Jose and Lee that have raged across the Atlantic are contributing to what appears to be the most active period for major storms on record.
And the busiest part of hurricane season isn't even over.
An analysis of 167 years of federal storm data by The Associated Press found that no 30-year period in history has seen this many major hurricanes, this many days of those whoppers spinning in the Atlantic, or this much overall energy generated by those powerful storms.
But more intense storms are what scientists expect to see as the planet's climate changes because warmer ocean water is fuel for hurricanes. And they say it is important to better understand this current intense period to save lives and prevent worse future destruction.
Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb said it would be "foolish" for policymakers to ignore the data. "We may not have as much data as we would like, but we have enough to aggressively invest in a variety of defenses for coastal communities," she said in an email. "We face a triple threat of rising seas, stronger winds, and literally off-the-charts rainfall totals."
The Atlantic hurricane season was more intense than normal in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2016. The 2005 season, which included Katrina, Rita and Wilma, was so active forecasters ran out of names for storms.
Then came this year. Fueled by warmer than normal ocean temperatures and ideal wind conditions, September 2017 had more days with major hurricanes spinning and more overall hurricane energy expelled than any month on record, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. Harvey spawned record rainfall. Irma had record high winds in the open Atlantic. And Maria hit the U.S. stronger than the earlier two.
The Associated Press looked at all major hurricanes — not just the small fraction that hit the U.S. — and grouped them into 30-year periods to mirror the 30-year cycles climate scientists use to understand how the climate is changing. The analysis found that in the period from 1988 to 2017:
— There have been 90 major hurricanes, an average of three a year. That's 48 percent more than during the previous 30 years. This hurricane season is at five and still counting.
— During the past 30 years major hurricanes have churned for an average of 7.2 days. That's 65 percent more than the average during the previous 30 years. There have been 18.8 major hurricane days so far this year.
— Scientists use a measure called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, that factors in wind speed and storm duration to gauge hurricane power. The annual average ACE of the past 30 years is 41 percent more than in the previous 30 years. An average year ACE is just shy of 100 and this year's ACE, with two months still to go, is 204.2.

I did not post the entire article nor a link.....too much soft deniel

bligh

 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1203 on: October 08, 2017, 04:35:18 PM »
Puerto Rico: The “good” news

The USNS Comfort hospital ship has been sailing around the island, stopping at ports to render aid.

USNS Comfort responds to second hospital generator failure
http://wavy.com/2017/10/07/usns-comfort-responds-to-second-hospital-generator-failure/

#COASTGUARD aircrews deliver supplies to isolated locations in #PuertoRico. Many roads to these areas have been destroyed or blocked.
https://twitter.com/USCGSoutheast/status/916360911736238081
Images at the link.

FEMA:  Signs of recovery in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico as businesses reopen and power is restored after #HurricaneMaria.
https://twitter.com/fema/status/916029280433299456
FEMA Video at the link.

U.S. Department of Defense:  More than 11,000 #DoD personnel now in #PuertoRico helping with logistics, medical support and aviation
https://twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/916005724249116672
Images at the link.

Gasoline:  78%
Supermarkets: 77%
Open ports: 75%
Bank branches: 57%
  http://status.pr


Puerto Rico:  The “not so good” news

Electricity:  11%
Phone service 52%
  http://status.pr

In Humacao, a town of 80k, this was the sole aid given to people, 10days after Maria #PuertoRico
https://twitter.com/mollycrabapple/status/916350208883249152
Second image below.

From Sept 28:  https://grist.org/article/puerto-ricans-are-living-climate-change-right-now-heres-how-they-describe-it/

An update on this story:
Desiree's family, including her 90 y/o great aunt, has safely made it out of Puerto Rico.

Unfortunately, her family's farm in Lares, P.R. was destroyed.
Her dad said, "5 families lost their livelihood. It's a sad day for me."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/916375055180976129
Images at the link.

Desiree's dad, on losing their family farm: "don't know if I can rebuild again. I was told not to expect electricity for at least 1 year."
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/916376160262590465
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1204 on: October 08, 2017, 06:57:34 PM »
Puerto Rico

Pleas for help from San Juan mayor now being "filtered out" as "political noise" by FEMA.

About 4am Sunday @CarmenYulinCruz sent out 3 desperate tweets, 2 that slammed the @fema response in PR. This is how @FEMA_Brock responded:
https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/917067015965302785
Video at the link.

Day 18:
Increasingly painful to see an American mayor desperately pleading for help to anyone who will listen.
Do not ignore this.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/917063367378063360


Edit:

Desperate San Juan Mayor takes to Twitter after Trump administration ignores requests for help
https://thinkprogress.org/puerto-rico-cruz-no-hope-1b9d6833f7b0/amp/
« Last Edit: October 08, 2017, 07:26:38 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1205 on: October 08, 2017, 07:07:53 PM »
Hurricane #Nate's peak surge was >6ft, coming almost exactly at high tide in Mississippi. Inundation of ~8ft.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917043996656046080

Potentially severe inland heavy rainfall event underway with #Nate and it's remnants in the Carolinas. 10 inches possible.
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917043996656046080

Day 1-2 QPF
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif?1507477360075
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1206 on: October 08, 2017, 07:13:59 PM »
A weakening Nate brings burst of flooding, power outages
BILOXI, Miss. (AP) — Hurricane Nate brought a burst of flooding and power outages to the U.S. Gulf Coast before weakening rapidly Sunday, sparing the region the kind of catastrophic damage wreaked by series of hurricanes that hit the southern U.S. and Caribbean in recent weeks.

Nate — the first hurricane to make landfall in Mississippi since Katrina in 2005 — quickly lost power, with its winds diminishing to a tropical depression as it pushed northward into Alabama and toward Georgia with heavy rains. It was a Category 1 hurricane at landfall outside Biloxi early Sunday.

The storm surge from the Mississippi Sound littered Biloxi’s main beachfront highway with debris and flooded a casino’s lobby and parking structure overnight.
...
More than 100,000 residents in Mississippi and Alabama were without power Sunday morning, but no storm-related deaths or injuries were immediately reported in those states or in Louisiana.
...
Mississippi Department of Transportation crews had to remove over 1,000 pumpkins blown onto Highway 90 in Pass Christian.
...
https://wtop.com/government/2017/10/nate-makes-2nd-landfall-outside-biloxi-mississippi/slide/1/


https://wtop.com/national/2016/09/east-coast-power-outage-map/

https://poweroutage.us


Edit:  about those pumpkins....

MDOT crews are removing 1K+ pumpkins from HWY 90 in @passchristianms that were blown onto the road due to #highwinds. #HurricaneNate #mswx
https://twitter.com/MississippiDOT/status/917068832166031360
Another image at the link.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2017, 02:08:25 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1207 on: October 08, 2017, 07:41:31 PM »
Hurricane Nate.  Just a typical hurricane.  NBD.  :o

Summary of #Nate's rapid track from the Caribbean into the Southern United States. One record broken, but otherwise not an atypical storm.
https://twitter.com/cyclonebiskit/status/917062275462246400
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1208 on: October 09, 2017, 06:02:07 PM »
Somehow my response was lost.

Comparing the most recent 30-year period to the previous period is short-sighted.  Comparing anything to a unusually low period is cherry-picking, and makes one think that you are trying to mislead others.  The prior 30-year period is quite similar to the most recent, which indicates that the previous 30-year period might be the anomaly.  This year currently ranks 8th on the ACE index, and may rise higher.  However, the busiest part of the season is over, contrary to your post.  1933 will most likely remain the highest, followed closely by 2005 (these were the two most active seasons, by far).  The next four years are all quite similar, and follow in order, 1893, 1926, 1995, and 2004.   2017 falls just behind 1950, and may move into the number seven slot before all is said and done.  1961 and 1998 round out the top 10.  There is very little long-term trend in hurricane activity, and this is supported by most of the data.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1209 on: October 09, 2017, 07:11:39 PM »
NOAA Satellites:  Just as #Nate dissipates Tropical Storm #Ophelia gathers strength over the Atlantic Ocean.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/917432857148166144
Satellite video at the link above.  More #hurricane imagery:  https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1210 on: October 09, 2017, 07:24:36 PM »
N Atlantic hurricane season is going gangbusters, Pacific Ocean seeing one of quietest Typhoon seasons on record  http://wx.graphics/tropical/
Only one Super Typhoon Noru in Western Pacific.  Even with global warming and always warm ocean waters, lid has been kept on strong Typhoons
This is quite unusual for first week of October ... The past decade in Pacific has been inactive ... historically so.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/915749554120781824
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1211 on: October 09, 2017, 07:31:39 PM »
Day 19:
A reminder that for Puerto Rico—part of the U.S.A.—Maria was an utterly catastrophic disaster. Recovery will take years or longer.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/917437342671101957

Independent damage assessments in Puerto Rico are as high as 95 billion, about 150% of the islands GNP, according to @ricardorossello
https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/917434448622379010
Text images of documents at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1212 on: October 09, 2017, 07:41:43 PM »
Due to bad weather in Puerto Rico, FEMA says it may be forced to drop food & water from a helicopter where the ground is too wet to land
https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/917442635102646277

NWS San Juan:  Flash Flood Watch. Vigilancia de Inundaciones Repentinas. Until/Hasta… 6:00 PM AST Wednesday/Miércoles. #prwx #usviwx
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/917434922981384197
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1213 on: October 09, 2017, 09:06:16 PM »
There is very little long-term trend in hurricane activity, and this is supported by most of the data.
Maybe, it's not significant. Nevertheless, 30-years average Atlantic ACE (red line) has increased compared to the past.

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1214 on: October 10, 2017, 04:31:36 AM »
There is very little long-term trend in hurricane activity, and this is supported by most of the data.
Maybe, it's not significant. Nevertheless, 30-years average Atlantic ACE (red line) has increased compared to the past.

Yes, there has been a slight long term increase.  But it is much less than the 40% claimed in an earlier post.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1215 on: October 10, 2017, 04:06:22 PM »
What we see there is the number of hurricanes each season, right ? And if you add data like wind speed, volumes of rain....What picture do we get than.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1216 on: October 10, 2017, 04:09:11 PM »
"It was Saturday afternoon, and Dr. Gutierrez was part of a small medical convoy trying to get to an isolated community called Don Alonso, in the mountainous center of Puerto Rico. There was word that no doctor had been to the place since Hurricane Maria had roared over the island Sept. 20, triggering mudslides throughout the largely rural municipality of Utuado, at least one of them deadly."

A Doctor’s Abandoned Journey Into Isolated Puerto Rico
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/09/us/puerto-rico-doctors-storm.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1217 on: October 10, 2017, 04:18:14 PM »
What we see there is the number of hurricanes each season, right ? And if you add data like wind speed, volumes of rain....What picture do we get than.

The graph above your comment is of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, not number of storms.  Based on wind energy, ACE is used to compare the power of a storm, or season of storms.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1218 on: October 10, 2017, 09:16:24 PM »
That's a little strange. If you look at the total number of hurricanes in the atlantic. There are much more in the last 30 years. Also much more of the bigger ones.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1219 on: October 10, 2017, 09:35:59 PM »
Latest models show #Ophelia may pose a rare hurricane-force threat to western Europe this weekend.
     https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/917782579297832960
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1220 on: October 10, 2017, 09:43:33 PM »
Day 20:
It's still dire in Puerto Rico.
84% w/o power
36% w/o water
47% w/o phone service
44% of banks closed
status.pr
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/917757153817059329

Puerto Rico Governor Breaks With Trump Over Jones Act Waiver
The administration let the waiver expire Sunday night.
http://secondnexus.com/politics-and-economics/puerto-rico-governor-hurricane-maria-trump-administration-jones-act-waiver/
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Paddy

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1221 on: October 10, 2017, 10:51:33 PM »
And, of course, it's not just Puerto Rico. Here's the situation on the US virgin islands, for instance, home to 100,000 people:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/08/us-virgin-islands-the-american-citizens-battered-by-hurricane-maria-and-forgotten
« Last Edit: October 11, 2017, 08:31:26 AM by Paddy »

A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1222 on: October 11, 2017, 05:10:53 PM »
After the disaster, people stood around singing kumbayah around a campfire, sharing their canned goods, calming frightened puppies, and helping the elderly?

This fellow takes a contrarian view of what actually happens in climate change related disasters, contrasting real-time imagery with the scrubbed societal narrative that comes later.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-10/disaster-myth-narrative-no-one-panics-no-one-loots-no-one-goes-hungry

The Las Vegas shooting timeline got turned around for a different reason: the deep-pocketed owners of the hotel worried about liability for ignoring the hotel engineer and wounded guard's phone calls vs the police fretting over the optics of their inexplicably slow response (they were already in the building on another matter; 51 other MPD officers were working the nearby concert). MGM's denials are being handled by Joele/Frank, a public relations company in New York.
It's quickly unravelling due to archived audio:

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-las-vegas-guard-20171010-story.html

https://www.today.com/video/las-vegas-shooting-new-audio-captures-first-shots-fired-1069738563795
« Last Edit: October 11, 2017, 06:01:22 PM by A-Team »

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1223 on: October 11, 2017, 07:39:41 PM »
That's a little strange. If you look at the total number of hurricanes in the atlantic. There are much more in the last 30 years. Also much more of the bigger ones.


Compared to what?


Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1224 on: October 11, 2017, 08:28:45 PM »
Compared to that ACE pic. If that's the accumulated energy from hurricanes. It goes up a little the last years. But there are much more hurricanes compared to the 150 years before that. So are they getting smaller ? If you look on wikipedia (for the atlantic) .Total numbers are higher and the number of big hurricanes are higher, much higher compared to when they started to count. That's what makes it strange. If they would be smaller, than you could have the same energy, even if there are more of them. Maybe it's the way they calculate it.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1225 on: October 11, 2017, 08:44:42 PM »
Latest models show #Ophelia may pose a rare hurricane-force threat to western Europe this

Forecast path looks quite similar to Debbie 1961


Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1226 on: October 11, 2017, 09:16:38 PM »
Daniel, now i see. The red line is a 30 year average. But than it is still strange that the differance is so small. But probably that average is going to go up further. Because the last 30 years are all heavy weights. In 2000 until 2009 we had 74 hurricanes and 36 big ones. And the 1990 were also high with 64/24. And from 2010 until today is already above average , and still a couple years to go. In the 1950's it was also a pretty high number 68/29, and a couple years later you see the average going up. But you had to wait until the 1930's to see the first year with more than 20 big hurricanes, and that average don't shows much diffrance with the average you have today, like you were telling. But this is only for the Atlantic. And the question is, how reliable is the information from before ????

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1227 on: October 11, 2017, 10:10:01 PM »
Daniel, do you understand what i mean with that small diffrance. If you look at the peak in 1900, that's the average of the 30 years before. In that periode we had 167 hurricanes from which 45 were big hurricanes. If you look at the peak in 1970, it holds the same energy. And it had 183 hurricanes from which 77 big ones. And the 30 years that will end december 2019, if we add the average for the next 2 years it will be something like 210 hurricanes from which 91 big ones. The 2 peaks in 1900 and 1970 hold the same energy with remarkable more hurricanes.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1228 on: October 12, 2017, 02:34:25 AM »
hello all. Writing to you from the 19th Century Puerto Rico. 20 days with no power, no running water, no communication and sore hands from cleaning fallen trees, but the important thing is that my mango tree is ok.

I'm on a friends house right now and can't spend much time on this post. We are ok, we still have some water left on our reservoir and I've been able to maintain refrigeration using my generator.  To experience the eye of hurricane Maria was an unforgettable experience, that I do not wish to repeat. I have some cool video of what I thought was maximum intensity pre-eye, the calm of the eye and then the wind in the opposite direction.  I'll post it when I edit it a bit and can get back online.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1229 on: October 12, 2017, 02:36:56 AM »
Archimid, so glad to hear you are OK!  Been thinking about you.  Stay safe.
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Martin Gisser

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1230 on: October 12, 2017, 04:46:49 AM »
Oh wow, Archimid in Puerto Rico...
Eager to hear more. This mess seems to be a failure of unprecedented proportions. Do they have a serious number of helicopters and truck drivers meanwhile?

Rachel Maddow just reported, desperately struggling to get not too agitated:
People dying of leptospirosis from contaminated water. People struggling to get their dialysis. All the while the USNS Comfort, the world's greatest hospital ship treats 8 (eight) patients.

"Climate change adaptation and mitigation" reduced ad absurdum.
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1231 on: October 12, 2017, 06:02:27 AM »
Great to hear you're okay, Archimid! And your mango tree!

Now, good luck with the aftermath! Is there any organisation you'd recommend donating money to?
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1232 on: October 12, 2017, 08:19:02 AM »
Hello Archimid. My heart goes to you and your people. At least it sounds like you fared better than most.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1233 on: October 12, 2017, 04:00:23 PM »
As per the latest @NHC_Atlantic discussion for #Ophelia from earlier this morning
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/120840.shtml
     https://twitter.com/weathergil/status/918419370568757248
Image below.

Worth noting should we get strong winds from Ophelia in NW Europe: it won't be a hurricane by then:
   The type of post-tropical system that #Ophelia is forecast to be is an EXTRATROPICAL one
     https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/918418123073687552
Image below.
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1234 on: October 12, 2017, 07:23:28 PM »
Looks pretty bad for Vietnam. They are already flood-ravaged. And this weekend they get another nasty storm. And a few days later again in the south.

wili

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1235 on: October 13, 2017, 12:35:53 AM »
#Ophelia now has 100 mph winds - the strongest an Atlantic hurricane has been this far east (35.5°W) this late in calendar year on record.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/918589584300236802?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Frobertscribbler.com%2F2017%2F10%2F11%2Fsignificant-monsters-climate-change-enhanced-wildfires-tear-widening-swath-through-california%2F

How many hurricane-related records does that make that we broke in the last few weeks??
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1236 on: October 13, 2017, 01:55:16 AM »
Accumulated cyclone energy for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has reached 7th highest.

Ophelia is going to Ireland in four days.

Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1237 on: October 13, 2017, 05:13:12 AM »
Oh, Archimid. Glad you're as ok as can be. Did you get any of the paper towels your president blessed? Hope you get electrics and water purification back on be it by Musk' solar arrays or any other way. I guess wind mills would have been no good in there.
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

Martin Gisser

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1238 on: October 13, 2017, 06:04:35 AM »
I guess wind mills would have been no good in there.
They can be switched into "hurricane mode". But solar panels can be blown away.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferhicks/2012/11/06/cubas-two-wind-farms-survive-hurricane-sandy/
Cuba's Two Wind Farms Survive Hurricane Sandy
[...]
Both of those wind farms were hit by hurricane Sandy with wind speeds of up to 110 miles per hour and neither of them had any major damage and continued to provide electricity for the local grid.
"The universe is irrelevant for all practical purpose." --Florifulgurator

Pmt111500

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1239 on: October 13, 2017, 09:18:41 AM »
Ah, but the panels could be incorporated to walls or something. Maybe mounted so they can be easily removed before the storm? Well it could lead to looting these after a natural disaster.
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1240 on: October 13, 2017, 03:31:52 PM »
Daniel, now i see. The red line is a 30 year average. But than it is still strange that the differance is so small. But probably that average is going to go up further. Because the last 30 years are all heavy weights. In 2000 until 2009 we had 74 hurricanes and 36 big ones. And the 1990 were also high with 64/24. And from 2010 until today is already above average , and still a couple years to go. In the 1950's it was also a pretty high number 68/29, and a couple years later you see the average going up. But you had to wait until the 1930's to see the first year with more than 20 big hurricanes, and that average don't shows much diffrance with the average you have today, like you were telling. But this is only for the Atlantic. And the question is, how reliable is the information from before ????

Alexander,
The following site maintains up to date ACE calculations throughout the year.  While the Atlantic has been significantly more active than average years, the Pacific has been significantly quieter.  The result is a near average tropical season.  The ACE through today is 422.8 globally compared to an average of 432.9.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Past data is less reliable.  NOAA has done a correction to account to those that may have been missed in prior years, especially before the satellite era.


6roucho

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1241 on: October 13, 2017, 06:57:04 PM »
There is very little long-term trend in hurricane activity, and this is supported by most of the data.
Maybe, it's not significant. Nevertheless, 30-years average Atlantic ACE (red line) has increased compared to the past.

Yes, there has been a slight long term increase.  But it is much less than the 40% claimed in an earlier post.
Doesn’t that graph show about a 40% increase?

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1242 on: October 13, 2017, 07:29:50 PM »
There is very little long-term trend in hurricane activity, and this is supported by most of the data.
Maybe, it's not significant. Nevertheless, 30-years average Atlantic ACE (red line) has increased compared to the past.

Yes, there has been a slight long term increase.  But it is much less than the 40% claimed in an earlier post.
Doesn’t that graph show about a 40% increase?

No.  Considering the oscillating nature of the curve, I would estimate about a 10-15% increase over the 1900 value.

crandles

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1243 on: October 13, 2017, 07:58:38 PM »
No.  Considering the oscillating nature of the curve, I would estimate about a 10-15% increase over the 1900 value.

Depends how you do the maths:

First 30 years averages 62.67
2000-2017 124.8
which gives a 99% increase

First 50 years average 79.4
last 50 years inc 2017 98.76
so increase only 24.3%

crandles

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1244 on: October 13, 2017, 08:10:19 PM »
Depends how you do the maths: - extending this to give numbers of TS, Hurricanes and majors

First 30 years averages 62.67 7.0 5.1 1.0
2000-2017 124.8 15.1 7.3 3.3
which gives increases of 99% 114% 44.7% and 245%

First 50 years average 79.4 7.6 5.2 1.2
last 50 years inc 2017 98.76 11.9 6.3 2.5
so increases of 24.3% 57.4% 21.6% 105%
[/quote]

ACE includes longevity as well as number and strength of storms

So major hurricanes showing much bigger increase in numbers than ACE, but hurricanes showing lower increases than ACE and perhaps peculiarly TS showing larger increases than ACE. Maybe explanation for that is I would suspect higher proportion of TS were missed in the early periods than hurricanes or majors.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2017, 08:19:34 PM by crandles »

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1245 on: October 13, 2017, 08:44:03 PM »
Distance between maximums or minimums is about 60-70 years. Next maximum of 30 years average can be expected around 2030. I think, last value isn't a new maximum. I see an increase by 20-30% compared to 65 or 130 years ago.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1246 on: October 13, 2017, 09:40:35 PM »
Death toll from worst Vietnam floods in years rises to 54
HANOI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - At least 54 people died and 39 went missing as destructive floods battered northern and central Vietnam this week, the disaster prevention agency said on Friday.

Vietnam is prone to destructive storms and flooding due to its long coastline. A typhoon wrecked havoc across central provinces just last month.

The floods that hit Vietnam this week starting on Monday are the worst in years, state-run Vietnam Television quoted agriculture minister Nguyen Xuan Cuong as saying.

Nineteen people from four neighbouring households in Hoa Binh were buried alive early on Thursday after a landslide struck around midnight on Wednesday, but only nine bodies have been found, the disaster agency said in a report.

Some 317 homes have collapsed in floods and landslides this week, while more than 34,000 other houses have been submerged or damaged.

More than 22,000 hectares (54,300 acres) of rice have also been damaged and around 180,000 animals killed or washed away.

Floods have also affected seven of 77 provinces in Thailand, Vietnam's neighbour to the west, that country's Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation said on Thursday.

More than 480,000 hectares (1.2 million acres) of agricultural land Thailand have been hit, the department said.
https://mercury.postlight.com/amp?url=http://news.trust.org/item/20171013042057-nxsod
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Martin Gisser

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1247 on: October 13, 2017, 11:44:35 PM »
https://www.salon.com/2017/10/13/puerto-rico-relief-worker-quits-after-government-funded-spa-day-report/
Puerto Rico relief worker quits after government-funded “spa day”: report
While much of the island remains without power, federal medical workers allegedly enjoyed a day to relax

A senior doctor helping assist those in need in Puerto Rico, who has been on humanitarian missions in at least 10 countries, quit her job and alleged that medical workers treated themselves to a "spa day" on the taxpayer dime as medical workers received manicures and pedicures from residents of the U.S. territory.

MSNBC's Rachel Maddow broke the story and reported the doctor had said that the response in Puerto Rico "is being run in a way she has never seen in her 20 years of federal disaster response experience."

[...]
The doctor said she could "no longer serve with honor."
[...]



TRMS show video:
http://player.theplatform.com/p/7wvmTC/MSNBCEmbeddedOffSite?guid=n_maddow_bspa_171012
"The universe is irrelevant for all practical purpose." --Florifulgurator

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1248 on: October 14, 2017, 03:55:15 AM »
The USNS Comfort hospital ship, in Puerto Rico with 800 specialized medical personnel, 1,000 hospital beds and 11 operating rooms, and the capability to make fresh water, as of three nights ago was treating:  8 patients.

   New York's Governor Cuomo salutes a volunteer medical effort that is being provided free transportation to PR by JetBlue:  https://twitter.com/nygovcuomo/status/918610731821686784

From USNS Comfort: With about 750 specialists on the boat, since it arrived doctors have barely seen 100 patients
https://twitter.com/BiancaJoanie/status/918879843911196673
Article in Spanish at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1249 on: October 14, 2017, 04:18:20 AM »
Mexico City earthquake update:  Fast and shoddy construction since the previous earthquake may have led to many of the building collapses seen in the recent quake.

6,000 complaints ... then the quake: the scandal behind Mexico City's 225 dead
Before the earthquake, Mexico City residents lodged thousands of complaints about construction violations. Many of the buildings in question collapsed
https://amp.theguardian.com/cities/2017/oct/13/complaints-earthquake-scandal-mexico-city-dead-construction-collapse
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.