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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1250 on: October 14, 2017, 08:06:33 AM »
A few days after Ophelia another strong storm is projected to hit Ireland and the UK. And betweem them another smaller storm is comming from the west , but still +100 km/h. It will be high alert for more than a week.

logicmanPatrick

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1251 on: October 14, 2017, 05:07:58 PM »
Archimid - so glad you're OK.

We get off lightly in the UK.  Great storms are very rare + much less damage than even a cat 1.

Projected for Monday, my location, approx :-

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1252 on: October 14, 2017, 07:27:28 PM »
Before this rapidly growing catastrophe has ended in Puerto Rico, tens of thousands of U.S. citizens will have died of preventable causes (mainly disease and untreated illnesses)IMHO.

Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1253 on: October 14, 2017, 07:57:32 PM »
Patrick, how do you make that screenshot with Windy ?

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1254 on: October 14, 2017, 08:58:42 PM »
How many hurricane-related records does that make that we broke in the last few weeks??
Perhaps we will see even more before the end of the season.
Another one. #Ophelia is now a major hurricane - the farthest east (26.6°W) an Atlantic major hurricane has existed on record.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1255 on: October 14, 2017, 11:26:11 PM »
Patrick, how do you make that screenshot with Windy ?

he will certainly reply to your question but in the mean time, may i ask what exactly your issue is?

i mean on any device i remember to have had it in use it was quite easy and standard procedure to make screenshots. if you tell us what kind of device you're using and/or would like to make such screenshots perhaps we can gladly provide you with the details.

however, in any case it's device dependent, main choice would be iOS, Android, MacOS or Windows whiel there are a few more like linux etc.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1256 on: October 15, 2017, 04:00:59 AM »
Ophelia is now a major hurricane, the first in recorded history in this part of the Atlantic Ocean & the strongest ever to threaten Ireland.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/919228894032560128

Taking @splillo's earlier plot, here's #Michael's location relative to #Ophelia. Ophelia became a major hurricane >1 month later in season.
     https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/919224833896050689
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1257 on: October 15, 2017, 04:09:58 AM »
Day 23:
Puerto Rico is going backwards.
91% now without power, up from 83% yesterday.
More than 1/3 w/o water.
Millions w/o 3 meals a day.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/918852150557577216

Here’s the why:
“One of the (power) stations in San Juan came down,” according to a spokesperson for the Governor
     https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/918875437765419008



Day 24:
85% of Puerto Rico w/o power, 36% w/o water
Millions w/o enough food
A humanitarian emergency.

And the President is golfing. Again.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/919233371871633409


Puerto Rico: US officials privately acknowledge serious food shortage
US government providing 200,000 meals a day to meet needs of 2m people
‘There is no urgency in the government response to this humanitarian crisis’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/11/puerto-rico-food-shortage-hurricane-maria#img-1

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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1258 on: October 15, 2017, 11:29:14 AM »
Archimid - so glad you're OK.

We get off lightly in the UK.  Great storms are very rare + much less damage than even a cat 1.

"The Great Storm of 1703."

Hit central and southern England. At least 8,000 dead. 700 ships piled up in the Pool of London. 1,000 seamen lost on the Goodwin Sands etc etc.
It is believed to be an extra-tropical cyclone, and very late - 7 December.
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logicmanPatrick

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1259 on: October 15, 2017, 11:50:01 AM »
Patrick, how do you make that screenshot with Windy ?

There are two ways.  The first is to use, as magnamentis says, the O/S built-in screen capture.  In windows, I just hit shift+ print screen.  This captures the screen to the copy buffer and I can paste it into any image processing app.

The other method, which I also use, is to fire up an image processing app and use its built-in screen capture.

The image above was produced this way: I used the windy slider (bottom of page) to predict a couple of days ahead, captured whole screen with shift-print, then cropped and annotated in Paint Shop Pro.

You can do some very arty infinite regression with shift-print.  :-)
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logicmanPatrick

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1260 on: October 15, 2017, 12:45:15 PM »
I've finally figured out how the Daily Scar and Daily Excess work: cherry pick the scariest data point and write as if it's the mean or median.

Whatever the red-tops say is true ain't.

Red-top says expect 25 deg C weather UK.  Met office says 'may exceed 24 in isolated areas'.

Quote
Temperatures across large parts of southern and eastern England will become increasingly warm over the weekend and are expected to exceed 20 °C on Monday, with isolated spots possibly reaching 24 °C or higher.

Met Office
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1261 on: October 15, 2017, 01:36:51 PM »
I'm closer to the eye of Ophelia than Patrick, and as luck would have it on Friday I was demonstrating a climate model in the basement of the allegedly United Kingdom's Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS for short):



I don't know about you, but I find it instructive to compare our Twitter feed with theirs. It was also instructive that I had long conversations with engineers from BEIS and OFGEM on our stand, but the policy wonks were noticeable only by their absence

Getting back to Ophelia, I'm due to be driving to Bristol during the peak of the impending storm on Monday. I think it'll be safer if I stay in front of my keyboard instead in order  to document the resulting power cuts. Here's the current NHC forecast:

Quote
INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  18.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.



« Last Edit: October 15, 2017, 06:33:17 PM by Jim Hunt »
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crandles

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1262 on: October 15, 2017, 01:56:30 PM »


limits on area forecast or some other issue.

North East corner of Wales here so on the 40% chance of TS force winds.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1263 on: October 15, 2017, 03:00:32 PM »
Ophelia, the strongest east Atlantic hurricane ever seen, will be one of the strongest storms in Ireland's history.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/919529680818065408
Image below; GIF at the link.

The Irish Times, on storm forecasts and preparations:
Hurricane Ophelia: Strongest storm Ireland has seen in 50 years
Met Éireann says Ophelia is comparable to Storm Debbie which killed 18 people in 1961
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/hurricane-ophelia-strongest-storm-ireland-has-seen-in-50-years-1.3256472
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1264 on: October 15, 2017, 03:34:50 PM »
The NHC is its discussion on Ophelia, noted that SSTs were 1 to 2 degrees celsius above "normal" allowing it to maintain hurricane status and increase in intensity even at a relatively high latitude.

One wonders what with this AGW everyone is going on about, and 93% of it going into the oceans, whether the magic 26 celsius SST required for hurricane formation and maintenance is moving into higher latitudes. If so, Ophelia events might become more frequent.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1265 on: October 15, 2017, 05:09:13 PM »
NWS San Juan:

Flash Flood warning for the Guajataca Dam extended. Aviso de inundaciones repentinas para la Represa Guajataca extendido. #prwx
     https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/919563671818338304
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1266 on: October 15, 2017, 05:15:05 PM »
The latest update on Ophelia from the NHC, together with my local surf forecast:

« Last Edit: October 15, 2017, 05:43:49 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1267 on: October 15, 2017, 05:41:01 PM »
Ophelia to Strike Ireland with Cat 2 Hurricane Winds
Quote
Hurricane Ophelia has begun a transformation into an extratropical cyclone; even so, it is forecast to impact Ireland head-on with Category 2 hurricane force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and extremely heavy rain.  Strong winds and heavy rain will begin battering Ireland and the United Kingdom today, with the worst arriving tomorrow. The center of circulation of Ophelia will make a direct strike on Ireland’s southwest coast at roughly 2am Monday morning. Ophelia will increase in size as it moves north and east, spreading heavy rain and damaging winds across a broad area. Met Eireann, the official weather agency for Ireland, has raised warnings there, advising people that Category 2 hurricane strength winds are expected near the point of landfall. ...
http://www.weatherboy.com/ophelia-strike-ireland-cat-2-hurricane-winds/


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day.  Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
completion by this afternoon.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/151443.shtml?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1268 on: October 15, 2017, 07:09:29 PM »
Apparently when they programmed the software they were not imagining tropical storms north of 60 deg latitude
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/919554081315844097
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1269 on: October 15, 2017, 07:20:54 PM »
Just the picture of a hurricane careening towards Ireland is pretty stunning to contemplate
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/919549477198946304
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1270 on: October 15, 2017, 07:45:49 PM »
Fun fact: With #Ophelia now a major hurricane, 2017 has had 2 hurricanes of each category (1 through 5).
     https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/919221386538823681
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1271 on: October 15, 2017, 08:20:47 PM »
Tesla starts shipping Powerpacks to Puerto Rico
Quote
...
A single Powerpack 2 battery pack has the same energy capacity (210 kWh) as almost 16 Powerwall 2 battery packs combined (each 13.5 kWh).

Tesla’s Powerwall is useful to bring individual rooftop solar installations back online for homes and small businesses, but Tesla’s Powerpack has the potential to bring larger parts of the grid online by working with the electric utilities and combining the energy storage systems with solar farms or other renewable energy sources.

Now several Tesla Powerpacks were spotted at the San Juan airport in Puerto Rico over the weekend (pictures via José Valiente):
...
Musk wrote on Twitter last week that they will first focus on helping hospitals and medical centers get stable power as less than 20% of the island currently has power and some regions are still looking at months without power.

But Tesla is looking to work with Puerto Rico beyond short-term solutions and actually try to rebuild the grid to be more resilient with solar power and energy storage.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/10/15/tesla-powerpacks-puerto-rico/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1272 on: October 15, 2017, 11:09:48 PM »
From the latest NHC update on Ophelia:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#comment-58647

No 60N cut off this time around!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1273 on: October 16, 2017, 12:32:29 AM »
From the latest NHC update on Ophelia:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#comment-58647

No 60N cut off this time around!

It's still cut off on the NHC site.  Some outlets are filling it in...  ;)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204644.shtml?tswind120#wcontents
Image below.

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wili

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1274 on: October 16, 2017, 04:04:06 AM »
Best of luck to the lucky Irish:
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1275 on: October 16, 2017, 09:13:56 AM »
The winds are starting to pick up here in North Cornwall. The last NHC bulletin on Ophelia shows her tracking slightly further west, which should be better for us:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#comment-58650

The 60N cut off is back too!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1276 on: October 16, 2017, 12:30:02 PM »
Over 35,000 properties across southern Ireland are now without power, plus a few thousand more here in Cornwall:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#Oct-16-1100
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1277 on: October 16, 2017, 01:41:52 PM »
At 11 UTC Roches Point weather station in Co Cork recorded a 10 minute mean windspeed of 69 mph with a gust of 97 mph. Ophelia really making a record impact in Ireland now.

Webcam image from the weather station shows mature trees have fallen. 

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1278 on: October 16, 2017, 02:01:29 PM »
BBC now reporting over 100,000 without power. EDIT: ...and the first reported death, of a woman in Ireland killed by a tree falling on her car.  :'(

I'm away in China, but friends in mid-Wales are reporting the classic hurricane weirdness: huge, ominous clouds, yellow light, strange and abrupt changes in wind speed and cloud cover... this is new territory for us, but is it something to get used to..?

I know it's a mug's game, but do people think Ophelia is a bit of a freak (notwithstanding the obvious effects of climate change-induced changes in SST), or the first of many to start hurtling straight up into the North Atlantic?

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1279 on: October 16, 2017, 03:20:52 PM »
BBC now reporting over 100,000 without power

By my own calculations that number's now over 180,000.
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1280 on: October 16, 2017, 04:33:17 PM »
Over 35,000 properties across southern Ireland are now without power, plus a few thousand more here in Cornwall:

Have a pint or two at the local pub and wait it out.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1281 on: October 16, 2017, 04:36:55 PM »

I know it's a mug's game, but do people think Ophelia is a bit of a freak (notwithstanding the obvious effects of climate change-induced changes in SST), or the first of many to start hurtling straight up into the North Atlantic?

I'll play but I'll settle for nothing less than several pints if I win.

I would be surprised if this does not become more frequent but it may take decades before it is common.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1282 on: October 16, 2017, 04:40:56 PM »
Av, read 'Storms of my Grandchildren' by James Hansen. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B002Z8IWLO/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

be cause

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1283 on: October 16, 2017, 04:56:37 PM »
latest Irish update .. 330000 premises without electric .. storm abating in the south . Gusting to severe gale here just north of the border ( where there is always an orange warning .. ) . Gert left it's mark in August .. Ophelia may have taken a more direct route but without the rainfall is less of a danger .. more an inconvenience (unless under a fallen tree).
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1284 on: October 16, 2017, 05:14:06 PM »
Ophelia winds feeding wildfires in Spain and Portugal today.

Exceptional view of *THICK smoke* from fires in N Spain and Portugal being advected N into France and the UK! Image: NASA Terra / MODIS
https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/919938832568672257
Image below.

Portugal and Spain wildfires: Dozens dead and injured
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41634125
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1285 on: October 16, 2017, 08:08:51 PM »
Preliminary Hurricane #Harvey rainfall maps have been produced/released from WPC. #txwx #houston
     https://twitter.com/rqhart/status/919967556013887499
Images below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1286 on: October 16, 2017, 08:15:28 PM »
#HurricaneOpheila - Coastal defences completely breached in #Galway... 😲  #Ophelia #staysafe #Opheila 
https://twitter.com/PierceKennedy/status/919954683619348480
Brief video at the link.



Ophelia full tide at Tramore (taken out window) @barrabest @StormHour @MetAlertIreland @metofficestorms
     https://twitter.com/muddybootsguide/status/919972011228778497
Image below
« Last Edit: October 16, 2017, 08:23:24 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1287 on: October 17, 2017, 01:49:29 AM »
Av, read 'Storms of my Grandchildren' by James Hansen. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B002Z8IWLO/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

Ah, of course - thanks, Wili. I must get hold of that! And I reckon a few pints might well be in order, SH... although who knows how much those will be worth by the time we get to that stage..!  :o

I've heard from folks at home that trees are down in central Wales all over the place, except for the large oaks (some of which will have survived a least a couple of previous Great Storms). Of course, this was nothing compared with Harvey and Irma (frightening rainfall maps!) but how long will it be before we're talking about similar storms in northwest Europe..? (That's a rhetorical question this time - I'm assuming quite a while!)

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1288 on: October 17, 2017, 12:09:27 PM »
This morning's Ophelia power cut summary:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#Oct-17-1100

ESB: 360,000 and counting
NIE: 52,000
ENW: 18,000
WPD: 15,000

According to ESB:

Quote
We are advising all customers impacted by outages that they should prepare to be without electricity for number of days. It is very important that any customers who use electrically powered medical devices should contact their healthcare professional to make alternative arrangements if necessary.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1289 on: October 17, 2017, 12:37:27 PM »
Published in today's Irish Times:

So what are we to make of Hurricane Ophelia? Certainly it is an entirely different beast from our usual storms. Forming in the Azores, it was caught up in a deep trough in the upper air westerlies and instead of heading west was pushed almost due north, reaching category 3 early in its journey. Because of this short track, it was slow to lose its tropical characteristics and only became entitled to call itself an extra tropical cyclone a few hours before it approached the Irish coast. On Monday, much of the country went into lockdown with schools, colleges and many businesses and transport systems closing down, and coastal residents being urged to take special precautions. By midday, gusts over 130km/h had been recorded on the south coast and the first fatality had occurred.

Over the past four years Ireland has experienced the wettest winter on record over most of the country, the stormiest winter of the past 147 years, and now its first taste of a near-intact Atlantic hurricane. For most Irish people, the question has been: is this the shape of things to come? Interestingly, all these aforementioned extremes may have a common denominator: the warming of the Atlantic Ocean. Where Ophelia formed as the 10th straight hurricane to develop from a tropical storm, the surface water temperatures were 2 degrees above normal, and crucially above the 26-degree threshold temperature where hurricane development is possible. Without this extra warmth, Ophelia probably would not have developed so readily.

 Destructive potential

 How Atlantic hurricane frequency and intensities will respond to greenhouse gas-induced global warming is a topic where the jury is still out. The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that while the numbers may not change too much, the intensity and destructive potential will likely increase as global warming proceeds. In terms of culpability for this, Ireland is not known for meeting its obligations on greenhouse gas emission reductions. Last week in Luxembourg, as the rules for 2030 emissions reductions were being set, it sheltered behind intransigent countries in eastern Europe, seeking maximum concessions and essentially passing the burden anywhere but home. This is not what the Citizen’s Assembly’s mandate of “How the State can make Ireland a leader in tackling climate change” is about. Perhaps Ophelia will assist in sensitising the Irish public to the reality that things are likely to get worse in terms of extreme events, and that the combination of circumstances that produced Ophelia are on balance more likely to increase rather than decrease in the years ahead. Our children and grandchildren will assess how much we have contributed to their misfortune or not.

John Sweeney is professor emeritus in the department of geography at Maynooth university, Ireland.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/hurricane-ophelia-the-shape-of-things-to-come-1.3257894

Niall Dollard

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1290 on: October 17, 2017, 12:43:03 PM »
Ophelia (red squared) and a tally of all the other 75kt or greater hurricanes in the North Atlantic since 1851.  Out on its own.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1291 on: October 17, 2017, 12:48:36 PM »
Pretty amazing how Ophelia forced a bunch of flights to land in a hurry for suspicion of fire, sucking up smoke it seems from Iberian wildfires.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-41639386

Apparently Saharan dust as well though, causing strangely colored reddish glowing skies.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-41635906

Either or both appear to have effect in Netherlands today where the sky and sun looked rather strange too.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1292 on: October 17, 2017, 02:23:04 PM »
This storm really moved along fast on Nullschool and seems to have dissipated without any discernible impacts foreseen for the Arctic Ocean (which however will see consistent but moderate  winds sweeping from Svalbard clear across to the Bering Strait).

J Masters at WeatherUnderground has a good account of Ophelia and its significance:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/strange-days-ex-hurricane-ophelia-batters-ireland-under-orange-skies

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Europe may see an increase in strong ex-hurricanes in the future

Ophelia’s ascension to Category 3 status and subsequent impact on Ireland just 12 hours after becoming an ex-hurricane was made possible, in large part, by unusually warm ocean temperatures that were 1 – 2°C (1.8 – 3.6°F) above average. As the planet continues to warm due to the effects of human-caused global warming, we should expect to see more hurricanes maintaining their strength far to the north, allowing them to draw very close to Europe.

According to a 2014 study led by University of Wisconsin hurricane scientist Jim Kossin, "The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity", there has already been a “pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively.”

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v509/n7500/abs/nature13278.html paywalled
https://phys.org/news/2014-05-tropical-cyclone-intensity-shifting-poleward.html

The scientists hypothesized that this poleward shift could be linked to the expansion of tropics poleward that has long been predicted as a likely consequence of human-caused global warming. They noted that so far, though, the poleward trend observed in the Atlantic tropical cyclone database has been small.

Ophelia was an “off the charts” storm

One other way we know that Ophelia was an extremely unusual storm is that is broke some of the graphical displays we use to view the forecast. The National Hurricane Center graphical forecasts of the storm’s track had to be truncated east of 0° longitude (the Greenwich Prime Meridian), since they never planned for the possibility that an Atlantic hurricane or its identifiable remnants could make it so far to the northeast.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2017, 02:31:26 PM by A-Team »

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1293 on: October 17, 2017, 02:31:13 PM »
The latest news from ESB Networks:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/10/hurricane-ophelia-power-cuts/#comment-58669

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At the height of the storm, 385,000 customers were without power but 170,000 have now had their power restored.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1294 on: October 17, 2017, 02:48:36 PM »
Another big cyclonic storm here expected to head for general area of Japan while strengthening.
This is 4 days from now in the image.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1295 on: October 17, 2017, 03:22:06 PM »
Landfall in Japan here for the 22nd at sustained windspeed 191 kmph per GFS.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1296 on: October 17, 2017, 05:51:26 PM »
Hurricane Allison was, until Harvey, the modern storm all others in Texas were compared to.

Allison (2001) rainfall is on the left, while Harvey (2017) rainfall is on the right.  Same map area.  Same color scheme.  #nocomparison
     https://twitter.com/drmetwatch/status/920177800694435840
Image below.
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1297 on: October 17, 2017, 07:34:31 PM »
Supper typhoon Lan is forcasted to bring large amounts of rain to Japan (inch)

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1298 on: October 18, 2017, 03:31:24 AM »
Hello ASIF, nice to read you again. Things are slowly improving, I now have occasional mobile internet conection. As promised I have some video of Maria from my point of view.



I've experience tropical storms before but never anything like Maria. I spent the 26 hours it lasted mopping and keeping the water out. The winds were scary, but what really got to me was a low rumbling noise that was felt more than heard.

The morning after whilebit was still raining I went out machete in hand and together with a group of neighbors wr cleared the roads all the way to the main road. Around 6 posts fell.

Pretty much all trees had some type of damage and most had no leaves. It was quite sight to behold.  the destruction of trees remind me of pictures I,ve seen of nuclear explosions. Everything seemed broken and burnt as far as the eye could see.

On the response to Maria. regardless of the governments response this was/is a problem of epic proportions. There was no cellphone signal, no Tv station transmitting and only one radio station was transmitting. Pretty much the whole island was without communication. Many main roads were impassable. The colonial government response to this was to recall all mayors to san juan, leaving all towns without leadership at the time they were needed the most. Crazy but fully expected from a government who exist only to serve itself.

That made so that roads were not cleared fast causing mayor shipping problems.

For the first two day there was not one gas station or grocery store opened. They were all damaged to one degree or the other. After a few days some gas stations started opening but they quick ran out of fuel. I ran low on fuel for my portable generator after a week. I did an 8 hour line to get fuel.

Food markets were all closed for two or three days, some are still closed. I didnt need groceries until a week and a half out. 
We stood in line for a few hours but once in we found all we needed exceot for fresh fruit and veggies and meats. 3 weeks out the lines are no longer there but the shelves look mostly  empty. Mosquito repellent, canned meats, baby food,  bagged food and other important items are still missing from the shelves. I imagine that most food warehouses and retailers were damaged. The local Sam's, walmart, home depot and local malls all sufdered extensive damage. I imagine it will be a while before the supply chain recovers.


Neven as far as donations, I hesitate to recommend you one, supplies are being stolen and politicians are distributing to their people first. However San Jorge Children's Hospital has always been a beacon of good. I knowthat for Maria they have been vaccinating children for free both in vulnerable communities and at their facilities. You really cant go wrong with them.If your money doesnt make it to Maria victims, you will still be helping children.


« Last Edit: October 18, 2017, 08:12:07 PM by Neven »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1299 on: October 18, 2017, 06:46:41 PM »
Hi, Archimid!  Thanks for the update;  please keep us advised when you can.


Miembros de la @PRNationalGuard llevan agua potable a residentes de la comunidad Barahona en Morovis. ¡Gracias! #PRSeLevanta
https://twitter.com/ricardorossello/status/920681173080297473
Video:  PR National Guard tanker trucks offer potable water for people to fill their containers.


Puerto Rico is the 1st natural disaster (Maria) where @FEMA is still delivering water & food after the 3rd week, & now going into a 4th week
     https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/920687595734126592

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