A warmer, wetter Greenland should be expected with climate change IMHO.
But does that mean net ice mass gain or loss?
Haven't a clue.
As we are seeing now, 'wetter' takes advantage over 'warmer', leading to an accumulation of mass in the ice sheet (probably as fluid water at the freezing point, inside pores and other open spaces inside the ice, otherwise as ice/snow).
At some point, the melting caused by 'warmer' will overtake, melting the extra accumulated mass away.
Yes, 2016 had a net SMB gain but given the decade long trend of SMB loss, it is a little premature to say that wetter will outweigh warmer, even in the short term.
With trepidation I suggest that this SMB thing needs some clarification.
There are three factors to take account of for calculating changes in the
TOTAL Greenland Mass Budget, surface precipitation, surface melting, calving.
Two are dealt with by "
http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/", namely:
- Surface precipitation,
- Surface melting.
Precipitation exceeds melt, so on average surface mass increases by nearly 400 gt per annum.
The third factor is calving. I do not believe there is any
direct measure of this. But NASA's GRACE project produced data on the total changes to the mass of Greenland, indicating net mass loss of 200+ Gt per annum.
Therefore one could assume mass loss from calving on average of circa 600 gt per annum.
2016 had a
surface mass gain (from factors one and two) of about 200 gt greater than average. We do not know whether calving was above, below, or about average. The GRACE project data stops at January 2017, so we do not know whether the Greenland Ice Sheet gained or loss mass.
Losing GRACE is a bummer. With luck new satellites up there next March, and after calibrating etc new data by mid-year?
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Quote from
http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/ --
"Over the year, it snows more than it melts, but calving of icebergs also adds to the
total mass budget of the ice sheet. Satellite observations over the last decade show that the ice sheet is not in balance. The calving loss is greater than the gain from
surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr."