Oren, you’ve shown us the past, up to the present. So, what is your prediction?
Continual sluggish growth, with no new industry forming to accelerate the availability of clean tech, even as the world’s situation becomes more dire?
Perhaps a bit faster growth, occurring only after a decade or two of relative inaction?
Total collapse, because we didn’t act in time?
If the adoption “S” curve is a fantasy, what do you see as a realistic take?
The following discussion is for OECD, India and China. I would assume the global problem is bigger and in worse shape, but lack the data. And the discussion is for electricity only, and does not cover any of the other sectors causing GHG emissions and various other forms of pollution.
From Gero's charts above, electricity production/demand has grown by ~300k GWh over the last 6.7 years, of which ~150k came from wind+solar growth, ~100k came from fossil fuels growth and the rest I guess from nuclear+hydro. Note I am just eyeballing the charts.
Overall demand growth is ~45k Gwh/year, and I do not expect it to stop, as global population is growing, affluence is growing, and I expect a replacement cycle of part of the global ICE fleet to EVs. I will assume overall growth rate stays stable. Add a serious S-Curve in EVs and/or heat pumps, and electricity needs will grow even faster.
Total fossil fuel production is currently at ~1050k Gwh/year.
Wind+solar growth has been above linear, with the last two years averaging ~30k/year. I would hazard a guess that the rate of addition will rise over the coming decade to 40k, 50k and even 60k GWh/year, but will not reach 100k or 200k/year in the style of a vertical part of an S-curve.
I will assume hydro+nuclear to grow by 10k GWh/year, this is probably quite optimistic.
We need to grow renewables fast enough to offset the 1050k fossil fuel segment, plus provide the overall growth of 45k/year. In 2033, 10 years from now, we will need zero-carbon production to grow by a total of 1500k GWh (1050+10*45) to do away with fossil fuels entirely for electricity production.
Assume hydro+nuclear growth provide 100k of this requirement.
This means wind+solar need to grow by 1400k over 10 years, very unrealistic. I expect cumulative growth to be ~400-500k, far short of a 2033 goal.
In 2040, 17 years from now, we will need zero-carbon growth of ~1815 (1050+17*45).
Hydro+nuclear provide 170k of the needed growth.
Wind+solar need to provide a growth of 1685k, nearly 100k Gwh/year, in order to do away with fossil fuel electricity production by 2040. Still unrealistic imho. I expect cumulative growth to be ~1000k, still leaving nearly 700k GWh of fossil fuel production by 2040, two thirds of current production.
Catch up point, even with optimistic assumptions, will probably be by 2050-2060. IMHO, too late, but it is what it is.
If I have time I will try to get the accurate raw data (Gero can you supply your file? And are there any global numbers available?) and provide some charts, as the text above can be quite difficult to read, and possibly contains errors.
Again note this is just for electricity production, a sector where we already have a well-known cost-effective and feasible technological solution, and just for OECD+China+India, which does not include most of the world's population growth regions. So the global electricity problem will be worse - and the global emissions problem much worse.
Sig - what is your own prediction? Would you care to provide some numbers as well, at least for the electricity sector?