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What will JAXA (ADS or NIPR) 2017 ASI September daily minimum be?

Above 5.25  million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km2
13 (10.6%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km2
20 (16.3%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km2
19 (15.4%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km2
12 (9.8%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km2
18 (14.6%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km2
14 (11.4%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km2
5 (4.1%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km2
4 (3.3%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km2
3 (2.4%)
Between 1.75 and 2.25 million km2
3 (2.4%)
Between 1.50 and 2.00 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 1.25 and 1.75 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 1.00 and 1.50 million km2
2 (1.6%)
Between 0.75 and 1.25 million km2
4 (3.3%)
Between 0.50 and 1.00 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 0.25 and 0.75 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0.00 and 0.50 million km2
1 (0.8%)

Total Members Voted: 122

Voting closed: July 12, 2017, 03:44:07 PM

Author Topic: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll  (Read 4625 times)

Neven

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #50 on: July 11, 2017, 10:01:01 PM »
A month ago it was predicting 4.2 IIRC, and a week ago that had dropped to 4.1.  At that point I could have gone with either the 3.75-4.25 range or the 4.0-4.5 for this month's poll. For various qualitative reasons I decided to go with the lower range.  Now at 4.3 the mean estimate from the predict-o-matic is (slightly) outside the range I chose.  Argh.

Ned, you still have one day left to change your vote.

Given the current slowdown in JAXA SIE decrease, I'm going up one bin to 'Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km2'.
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EgalSust

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #51 on: July 13, 2017, 08:49:10 PM »
Median prediction was between 3.25 and 3.75 MkmĀ², which would mean second lowest extent.

Ned W

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #52 on: July 17, 2017, 07:38:32 PM »
A month ago it was predicting 4.2 IIRC, and a week ago that had dropped to 4.1.  At that point I could have gone with either the 3.75-4.25 range or the 4.0-4.5 for this month's poll. For various qualitative reasons I decided to go with the lower range.  Now at 4.3 the mean estimate from the predict-o-matic is (slightly) outside the range I chose.  Argh.

Ned, you still have one day left to change your vote.

Given the current slowdown in JAXA SIE decrease, I'm going up one bin to 'Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km2'.
I think you are probably correct.  But I stuck with the 3.75-4.25 range out of sheer inertia. 

Thanks to all those century breaks (which you predicted!) the predict-o-matic is back down into the area of overlap between your guess and mine. But I would bet that within a few days it will have drifted back up out of "my" range.

This is fun.

Neven

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #53 on: July 17, 2017, 10:15:18 PM »
I think you are probably correct.  But I stuck with the 3.75-4.25 range out of sheer inertia. 

Thanks to all those century breaks (which you predicted!) the predict-o-matic is back down into the area of overlap between your guess and mine. But I would bet that within a few days it will have drifted back up out of "my" range.

This is fun.

Thanks to the overlapping bins, we can both be right.  ;)

But I can't wait to see if the century breaks keep rolling in, despite that persistent low over the CAB. Uni Hamburg AMSR2 and NSIDC suggest no for now, but my impression is there's still a lot of weak ice on the periphery.
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