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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #100 on: November 23, 2017, 01:48:21 PM »
If daily ice loss hoovers around the 200K/day (duplicating the last day reported) for the next two weeks, the deficit with 2016 will be erased.  I'm not expecting this to happen (I make no forecast one way or the other), but it shows how insignificant 2 million square kilometers of ice is in the scheme of things.
JAXA DATA as at 22 Nov. - Extent =  23,467,908 km2

Extent loss per day remains well above average. Difference with 2016 reduced by 360 k km2 in 3 days to +1.76 million km2. The graph suggests that difference is likely to reduce further over the next ten days.
N.B. On average extent loss is only 11% complete as yet.

« Last Edit: November 23, 2017, 03:43:55 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #101 on: November 23, 2017, 04:20:10 PM »
Not looking good at all.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #102 on: December 02, 2017, 03:59:51 PM »
Extent is gradually moving towards the pack - slightly slow Antarctic Loss and slightly high Arctic gain. But extent change from max only 12% done.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #103 on: December 03, 2017, 02:00:05 PM »
Whoops - table posted yesterday was 23 November. Sorry. Below is corrected table.
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kiwichick16

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #104 on: December 03, 2017, 08:13:37 PM »
@  gerontocrat......moving back towards the pack......agreed.....but still well below average

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #105 on: December 04, 2017, 10:07:11 AM »
It is funny to see how my mind works with these graphs, when seeing it I think "the global sea ice area is okay/ it's somewhat recovering" while if you only remove 1 year it's crushing all records probably and the forum (and my mind) would be full of blue-ocean-event-next-melt-season posts ;)

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #106 on: December 07, 2017, 04:08:45 PM »
Mainly JAXA DATA as at 6 Dec

The image below (from NSIDC / Wipneus) shows that extent is still drifting towards the pack. However, extent loss from max to min is only about 25% done..

The table, however, shows the possibility of a very low minimum.

The graph shows that last year the extent loss stalled at the end of December.

One can only wait and see.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #107 on: December 14, 2017, 05:45:45 PM »

Another week gone. Herewith mainly JAXA DATA as at 13 Dec

The image below (from NSIDC / Wipneus) shows that extent is still drifting towards the pack. However, extent loss from max to min is only about 33% done..

The table, however, still shows the possibility of a very low minimum.

The graph shows that last year the extent loss stalled at the end of December, after very strong extent loss early

One can only wait and see.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #108 on: December 16, 2017, 11:58:37 AM »
JAXA DATA as at 15 Dec

The extent is dropping like a stone - at the moment, though only 37 percent done on average.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #109 on: December 21, 2017, 12:59:17 PM »
JAXA DATA as at 20 December 2017
and image from sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/

On average we are 45% down the road from extent max to extent min.
Extent is second lowest in the satellite record.

Last year extent loss slowed sharply from around Xmas day. This shows up well on the image and graph below.

If extent loss from now to minimum is average, it would result in a new record low. (This is an observation, not a prediction.)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #110 on: December 28, 2017, 01:05:08 PM »
JAXA DATA as at 27 December 2017
and image from sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/

On average we are 58 % down the road from extent max to extent min.
Extent is second lowest in the satellite record.

Last year extent loss slowed sharply from around Xmas day. This year it hasn't, so far. This shows up well on the image and graph below.

If extent loss from now to minimum is average, it would result in a new record low. (This is an observation, not a prediction.)

The final table shows how global sea ice extent is declining over time.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #111 on: December 31, 2017, 07:41:09 PM »
JAXA DATA as at 30 December 2017
and image from sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/

On average we are 63 % down the road from extent max to extent min.
Only about 50 days to go.
The gap with 2016 narrows.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #113 on: January 06, 2018, 08:16:55 PM »
JAXA still not showing the graphs and the data for 2018, so I had a look at the NSIDC daily data spreadsheet and , of course image from sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/

Note the blip (but is it just a blip) on extent reduction, due to 130 k increase in Arctic sea ice on 5 Jan.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #114 on: January 08, 2018, 03:01:22 PM »
NSIDC DATA AS AT 7 JAN

JAXA still not showing the graphs and the data for 2018, so so here again is the NSIDC daily data and, of course, the extent image from sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/

Note the blip was just a blip of extent reduction, now replaced by extent loss in the Arctic and strong extent loss in the Antarctic. Note, for example that on Jan 1 Antarctic Sea Ice extent was 0.85 million greater than 2017, on 7 Jan it is down to 0.53 million.

If this continues a dramatic end to the season in both hemispheres.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #115 on: January 09, 2018, 05:23:37 PM »
NSIDC DATA AS AT 8 JAN

JAXA still not showing the graphs and the data for 2018, so so here again is the NSIDC daily data and, of course, the extent image from sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/

Be afraid, be very afraid ?
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Ktb

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #116 on: January 09, 2018, 06:43:55 PM »
I think it is worth noting that this is the closest global sea ice has been to the previous year since (record lows) since the divergence of 2017 and 2016 in October.

AND will 2018 be the year that global sea ice extent dips below 16 million sq km??
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 07:11:40 AM by Ktb »

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #117 on: January 10, 2018, 03:07:20 PM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 9 JAN 2018.   At last..

Although extent loss on average is 76% done and on average there are 36 days to go to the minimum on 14th February, over the last 10 years minimum has been reached any time from the 25 th anuary to the 23rd February. Extent is getting closer to the lowest in the satellite record.

Historical data suggests a low or record low minimum, but the table shows the high yearly variation in remaining extent loss and the resulting extent that would cause - anything from 12.8 to 17 million km2.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #118 on: January 10, 2018, 07:59:16 PM »
I think it is worth noting that this is the closest global sea ice has been to the previous year since (record lows) since the divergence of 2017 and 2016 in October.

AND will 2018 be the year that global sea ice extent dips below 16 million sq km??
On 9th January with over a month to go, global sea ice extent is below many previous year's minima.

If nothing else, this strongly suggests that the long-term trend is  ↓↓
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Buddy

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #119 on: January 10, 2018, 08:33:42 PM »
Quote
On 9th January with over a month to go, global sea ice extent is below many previous year's minima.

First...nice chart!!!  Love the info...

Second....not quite 1.7 mill to go in order to set new record low min.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #120 on: January 12, 2018, 02:36:42 PM »
Quote
On 9th January with over a month to go, global sea ice extent is below many previous year's minima.

First...nice chart!!!  Love the info...

Second....not quite 1.7 mill to go in order to set new record low min.

Just for you, Buddy, updated table as at 11 Jan. 1.4 million for new record low. (See how I respond to being stroked).
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #121 on: January 12, 2018, 02:43:04 PM »
Quote
Just for you, Buddy, updated table as at 11 Jan. 1.4 million for new record low. (See how I respond to being stroked).

Sweet....:)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #122 on: January 12, 2018, 03:14:50 PM »
Latest  graph from sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/.

A little closer every day?
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magnamentis

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #123 on: January 12, 2018, 05:43:17 PM »
Latest  graph from sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/.

A little closer every day?

i'm curious whether we shall see such a steep increase in SIE and SIA in the arctic like last year during February?

should that not happen, the global curve as well as arctic Volume would bring us very close to the imminent record summer minimum that will most probably occur during the next sunny (melt friendly) summer season.
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harpy

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #124 on: January 12, 2018, 06:33:08 PM »
Would anyone be able to estimate the arctic sea ice extent on that graph which would represent an "ice free arctic"?  Looks like the lowest level was around 16, what number would represent a blue ocean event?

Thanks.

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #125 on: January 12, 2018, 06:47:33 PM »
Harpy,
I think you go to the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs (ASI Graphs) page and look at the several graphs made available there.  Included in the "Daily Graphs" tab are Arctic only graphs, Antarctic only graphs and global graphs, and many others. An ASIG link can be found at the top of every ASI Forum page ("Watch all Graphs on ASI Graphs").  Visitors should also, of course, regularly visit Neven's ASI Blog ("Read All About Arctic on ASI Blog").
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #126 on: January 12, 2018, 07:07:56 PM »
Would anyone be able to estimate the arctic sea ice extent on that graph which would represent an "ice free arctic"?  Looks like the lowest level was around 16, what number would represent a blue ocean event?

Thanks.
Often the Arctic and Antarctic extents work in opposite directions. A period of years in which Arctic Sea Extent is reducing quickly sometimes is when the Antarctic is freezing up. At this moment in time(and last year) the Antarctic extent is dropping rapidly while the Arctic is gaining extent slowly - hence the total extent is dropping like a stone. In two months we will be looking at Arctic melt and Antarctic gain.

BUT - to predict, as I know toooo well, is to invite scorn, hollow laughter and other remarks conducive to total humiliation.

BUT - every year CO2 concentrations increase, more solar radiation is  collected by the oceans.

But when a blue ocean event (in the Arctic)? "je ne sais pais".
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oren

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #127 on: January 13, 2018, 12:14:09 AM »
Would anyone be able to estimate the arctic sea ice extent on that graph which would represent an "ice free arctic"?  Looks like the lowest level was around 16, what number would represent a blue ocean event?

Thanks.
A blue ocean event in the Arctic would not be on that graph. It would happen in August/September, not in February, so it would be at a different level of global extent. Take typical Aug/Sep Antarctic extent, add 1mil for the usual Arctic "blue ocean" definition, and you'll get your answer.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #128 on: January 13, 2018, 12:19:43 PM »
Would anyone be able to estimate the arctic sea ice extent on that graph which would represent an "ice free arctic"?  Looks like the lowest level was around 16, what number would represent a blue ocean event?

Thanks.
A blue ocean event in the Arctic would not be on that graph. It would happen in August/September, not in February, so it would be at a different level of global extent. Take typical Aug/Sep Antarctic extent, add 1mil for the usual Arctic "blue ocean" definition, and you'll get your answer.
For me, looking at global sea ice is really about how much less ocean is covered by ice, with consequences for positive feedback into global warming and other climate changes, and something to stick up the nose of climate change denier trolls.

so here is JAXA DATA as at 12th February. About 33 Days to go =/- 10 days?

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RikW

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #129 on: January 13, 2018, 12:32:59 PM »
A finish not in the top 3 would be a miracle, even 3rd place would surprise me

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #130 on: January 14, 2018, 04:14:52 PM »
JAXA having a day off - so here is NSIDC daily data (Arctic, Antarctic, Global) plus extent and area graphs from arctischepinguin.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #131 on: January 19, 2018, 10:44:38 AM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 18 JAN 2018

On average, extent loss to minimum is about 88% done. 2017 extent at this date was 0.56 million km2 less than 2018, but extent loss in 2017 from this date was a very low 0.37 million km2 compared with the average of 1.1 million km2.

A record low is thus still very possible, but extent gain in the Arctic and extent loss in the Antarctic is entering the period of transition.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #132 on: January 19, 2018, 11:19:30 AM »
I still guess it will be a 2nd or 3rd place finish. There isn't many ice to melt left in the antarctic

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #133 on: January 20, 2018, 05:01:42 PM »
JAXA on holiday today. Herewith are artischepinguin images from NASA for 19 Jan for area and extent.

Arctic ice gain stalled, Antarctic ice loss slowed. Global extent looks about 2nd lowest with some more loss to go?



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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #134 on: January 21, 2018, 01:14:48 PM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 20 JAN

On average extent reduction from maximum is 90 % done, just 1 million km2 to go, which would produce a new record low minimum. Extent has now narrowed to just 0.25 million greater than 2017, the year of record low that was so astonishing at the time.  Only 4 years have ended up with a lower low than the 20 Jan 2018 extent.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #135 on: January 22, 2018, 11:31:38 AM »
JAXA DATA 21 JAN

Another day, another 140 k km2 extent drop. Extent on 21 jan now lower than the minimum for all years except two, 2006 (98k km2) and 2017 (555k km2).

First or second lowest minimum now almost certain.
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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #136 on: January 22, 2018, 06:29:05 PM »
According to NSIDC any decrease in extent today will push 2018 below 2017, into first place

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #137 on: January 22, 2018, 07:05:57 PM »
Quote
First or second lowest minimum now almost certain.

Fascinating to watch as always....especially now that the Antarctic is heading "south" with a good head of steam over the last couple of years.

Will also be interesting to see how much this impacts the POLITICAL "climate"  ;) in the US and elsewhere.  Let's face it....its not IF most people are going to change their mind on global warming....it is WHEN.  There are the early adopters.....and there are the late adopters.

Mathematical and physical FACTS don't go away.  And SLOWLY people are being peeled away from the dark side.  Impacts like new record lows in sea ice continue to beat on the other side.....and they have a LOSING proposition that they are clinging to.   
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #138 on: January 22, 2018, 07:21:25 PM »
It is getting late for old fogies like me on this side of the Atlantic, so here are two images extracted from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice, NSIDC global area and global extent.

I do not remember another time when for two years in a row the data and graphs left the pack behind in the dust.

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #139 on: January 22, 2018, 09:32:29 PM »
We knew this was coming. Its just a matter of how low it will get to now. Will the global extent drop below 16M km2? It may even approach 15M km2. How big of a sputter like this can a global system survive?

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #140 on: January 22, 2018, 09:53:32 PM »
Quote
We knew this was coming. Its just a matter of how low it will get to now. Will the global extent drop below 16M km2? It may even approach 15M km2. How big of a sputter like this can a global system survive?

You are so right.  More dark ocean...... = more heat. 



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magnamentis

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #141 on: January 22, 2018, 10:27:29 PM »
Quote
First or second lowest minimum now almost certain.

Fascinating to watch as always....especially now that the Antarctic is heading "south" with a good head of steam over the last couple of years.

Will also be interesting to see how much this impacts the POLITICAL "climate"  ;) in the US and elsewhere.  Let's face it....its not IF most people are going to change their mind on global warming....it is WHEN.  There are the early adopters.....and there are the late adopters.

Mathematical and physical FACTS don't go away.  And SLOWLY people are being peeled away from the dark side.  Impacts like new record lows in sea ice continue to beat on the other side.....and they have a LOSING proposition that they are clinging to.   

yeah, i thought along the same lines, trump with his childish tweets about where the climate change is must have seriously pissed of saint peter, at least one could get the impression when looking at the latest development and temp anomalies. (partly kidding the St. P. Part LOL i'm not sure about other countries but here in europe st. peter is the guy responsible for the weather ;) )
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Paddy

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #142 on: January 22, 2018, 11:06:12 PM »
We knew this was coming. Its just a matter of how low it will get to now. Will the global extent drop below 16M km2? It may even approach 15M km2. How big of a sputter like this can a global system survive?

My guess is that it'll be a similar minimum to last year, but naturally, nobody knows.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #143 on: January 24, 2018, 01:47:48 PM »
JAXA DATA Global Extent as at 23 Jan

With, on average, just 3 weeks and 9 % (0.8 million) of extent loss to go, Jan 23 extent today is now lower than all previous years' minima except 2017. Jan 23 2017 extent was just 2.370 km2 less than 2018.

If, always a very big if, extent reduction is average, the 2017 extent minimum would be nearly 400,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low minimum.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #144 on: January 24, 2018, 02:56:32 PM »
BUT -

NSIDC showing the opposite over the last couple of days - i.e. increasing global extent.

Once more into the waiting game

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #145 on: January 25, 2018, 04:57:31 PM »
NSIDC data says that due to increases in Arctic extent, global extent going up - while JAXA says extent has stalled (but down a tiny bit).

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #146 on: January 25, 2018, 08:41:31 PM »
I thought I would step back and have a look at global annual averages over the last few years using JAXA data as relief from the microscope of daily changes.

I think the graph below is OK. Note the dips around 2007 and 2012 (Arctic Sea Ice major losses) and the 2015 high - Antarctic record highs. The overall trend is, obviously - down.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #147 on: January 27, 2018, 12:54:42 PM »
JAXA DATA - Global Extent as at 26 Jan

Extent reduction a bit lower than average over the last two days.

With, on average, less than 3 weeks and 7 % (0.64 million km2) of extent loss to go, Jan 23 extent today is now lower than all previous years' minima except 2017, which was at minimum 280k lower.

If, always a very big if, extent reduction is average, the 2017 extent minimum would be about 360k km2 less than the 2017 record low minimum.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #148 on: January 29, 2018, 01:25:13 PM »
I thought I would step back and have a look at global annual averages over the last few years using JAXA data as relief from the microscope of daily changes.

I think the graph below is OK. Note the dips around 2007 and 2012 (Arctic Sea Ice major losses) and the 2015 high - Antarctic record highs. The overall trend is, obviously - down.

About time the Antarctic fresh runoff meets normal temperatures. The deniers have had too much visibility and spewed too much crap with this one.
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Sterks

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Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #149 on: January 29, 2018, 10:50:42 PM »
I thought I would step back and have a look at global annual averages over the last few years using JAXA data as relief from the microscope of daily changes.

I think the graph below is OK. Note the dips around 2007 and 2012 (Arctic Sea Ice major losses) and the 2015 high - Antarctic record highs. The overall trend is, obviously - down.
Not so obviously, when you cut the plot about somewhere 2015 and was, "obviously", up.
Unsettled I'd say, which is the same as no freaking idea.