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Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #250 on: October 29, 2017, 05:55:25 PM »
Yes, meant ASIG. Too bad. Could you set these kinds of resources up as just a link to the site?

Yes, I can, and I might do that when I update the ASIG next time.
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #251 on: October 30, 2017, 08:12:36 AM »
trying to model heat flow

That sounds very interesting.

With all this talk of early ice growth trapping summer heat in the water underneath the ice, I've been wondering what data there is on that... and at what depth the water temperature is most relevant for a seasonal ice outlook.

I know ARGO floats have some capability to operate under sea ice and save up the data until it's safe to transmit... but I've never seen any actual data beyond 65N.
Itp 95 hovering around 84nth polewards of svalberd has been showing some regular overturning to below 700m with above the scale temps and salinity rising from deep to replace surface to depth downwelling as the surface cools. This location being well inside the pack, this cannot be good for atlantic side ice formation/survival. Particularly over deep ocean as tis. As of day 304:

They have some new buoys itps 100,101,108 out on the central beaufort. They appear to be showing the halocline stabilising there, after a shaky period before it crusted over, not much salinity differential compared to a decade back.
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meddoc

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #252 on: October 30, 2017, 11:31:44 AM »
Paul Beckwith reflecting on a Study, that basically said: FYI is 13- 25% overestimated in Thickness, because of Sensor Microwave Penetration affected by Sea Salt deposited from battering Ocean Waves.


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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #253 on: October 30, 2017, 05:56:00 PM »

There is little isostatic rebound close to the north pole. Sea ice is compensated as it floats. Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet may be causing some variations, but, at an educated guess, asthenospheric flow changes don't change rapidly enough to notice on a yearly scale. Perhaps over the course of a century you might notice a change. That earthquake is like to be a result of the slow spreading of the Gakkel MOR:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1873965214000693

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #254 on: October 30, 2017, 07:04:27 PM »
The 3 earthquakes N of FJL, M5.7, 5.7 and 6.0 were all normal faulting earthquakes. They may be associated with a submarine volcanic center associated with the very slowly extending Gakkel ridge.

Thanks Rox, for the journal link. We need to stick to the science.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #255 on: October 30, 2017, 07:14:52 PM »
The stratospheric polar vortex is forecast by the GFS to become very elongated over the next week to 10 days. This pattern will bring warm air to the East Siberian seas and cold air to western Canada. Repeated cold air outbreaks are likely to hit the central U.S. in this pattern.

It's a variation of the warm Arctic cold continents pattern.

echoughton

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #256 on: October 30, 2017, 08:05:11 PM »
wish there was a "Like" button...and others like on FB..I keep looking for it and it never appears. :o

Pavel

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #257 on: October 30, 2017, 08:28:56 PM »
It's gonna be very cold in the CAA that it should have significant ice volume + the Garlic Press. But on the other hand the Pacific side will still struggle to freeze up. Also the Low Pressure system in the Barents sea boosts the Fram export.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #258 on: October 31, 2017, 07:07:56 AM »
trying to model heat flow

That sounds very interesting.

With all this talk of early ice growth trapping summer heat in the water underneath the ice, I've been wondering what data there is on that... and at what depth the water temperature is most relevant for a seasonal ice outlook.

I know ARGO floats have some capability to operate under sea ice and save up the data until it's safe to transmit... but I've never seen any actual data beyond 65N.
Itp 95 hovering around 84nth polewards of svalberd has been showing some regular overturning to below 700m with above the scale temps and salinity rising from deep to replace surface to depth downwelling as the surface cools. This location being well inside the pack, this cannot be good for atlantic side ice formation/survival. Particularly over deep ocean as tis. As of day 304:

They have some new buoys itps 100,101,108 out on the central beaufort. They appear to be showing the halocline stabilising there, after a shaky period before it crusted over, not much salinity differential compared to a decade back.
It is on the Atlantic side that I think most desperately needs instrumentation, to track exactly the kind of overturning and changes in the water column you are mentioning.  While the Bering and increased captured insolation are important to what we see playing out, I think input from warm more saline Atlantic water is really what will tip the balance in the Arctic's heat budget.
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #259 on: October 31, 2017, 11:56:53 AM »
But on the other hand the Pacific side will still struggle to freeze up.

Seems to be what the NWS Anchorage are saying too, in their monthly outlook.
"FREEZE-UP TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST YEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE CHUKCHI SEA AND NORTHERN BERING SEA DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES."

Although they conclude with "THE BERING SEA MAY SEE SLIGHTLY GREATER SEA ICE EXTENT
THAN IN RECENT YEARS."
 
(Note: the capital emphasis is just as copied from their site and nothing especial intended by it !) 

Daniel B.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #260 on: October 31, 2017, 03:16:46 PM »
The 3 earthquakes N of FJL, M5.7, 5.7 and 6.0 were all normal faulting earthquakes. They may be associated with a submarine volcanic center associated with the very slowly extending Gakkel ridge.

Thanks Rox, for the journal link. We need to stick to the science.

You may like this link also, detailing past affects of volcanic activity on Arctic ice.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01273-1

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #261 on: October 31, 2017, 04:27:11 PM »
The Gakkel ridge, a very slow spreading center, is effectively decoupled from the effects of glacial unloading. Greenland, Iceland and Alaska, however, have coupled volcanism and glacial melting.
Yes, this is an interesting article;

Our data indicate that abrupt ice melting events coincide with volcanogenic aerosol emissions recorded in Greenland ice cores. We suggest that enhanced ice sheet runoff is primarily associated with albedo effects due to deposition of ash sourced from high-latitude volcanic eruptions. Climate and snowpack mass-balance simulations show evidence for enhanced ice sheet runoff under volcanically forced conditions despite atmospheric cooling.

Note that tropical volcanism is more effective at atmospheric cooling than polar and subpolar volcanism. Note also, while Europe was cool in the '60s and '70s because of sulfate pollution, black carbon pollution was melting European glaciers. Increasing fire in northern reaches is also adding to glacial melting.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #262 on: October 31, 2017, 10:49:12 PM »
Bit of a storm shaking things up in Hudson Bay and Baffin (after devastating parts of Maine and the Ottawa region). I assume it’ll delay the freeze-up a bit more. We haven’t seen any sea ice yet, and this storm is a few degrees above the temperature it’s been lately.


Being in tropical storm force winds for 24 hours at a time is a new experience for me. It’s a bit unpleasant. I can’t imagine waiting it out in a hide tent (there’s not enough snow for an igloo yet).

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #263 on: October 31, 2017, 11:16:08 PM »
Being in tropical storm force winds for 24 hours at a time is a new experience for me. It’s a bit unpleasant. I can’t imagine waiting it out in a hide tent (there’s not enough snow for an igloo yet).
Depends on the construction. The Plains Indian tipi is quite storm resistant. Have experienced that: All other tents blown away, the tipi still standing (except one broken pole). Dunno if they have it up there. The Sami in northern Scandinavia and some northern Siberian people also use tents similar to the tipi.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavvu
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chum_(tent)

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #264 on: November 01, 2017, 05:32:34 AM »
Quote
It is on the Atlantic side that I think most desperately needs instrumentation, to track exactly the kind of overturning and changes in the water column you are mentioning.  While the Bering and increased captured insolation are important to what we see playing out, I think input from warm more saline Atlantic water is really what will tip the balance in the Arctic's heat budget.

Actually I may have spoke too soon. Itps 100@80-146, 101@81-127, 108@80-137 are now all showing a flat temp and salinity profile surface to 500m ish. The fact that only 25m of a few psu less salinity is lidding this area has been concerning me. The brine rejected by  a mtr of ice freeze could be enough to flatten the halocline. And then any surface cooling will overturn to depth. May improve outgoing winter heat flux. But seems likely this would jump us to year round ice free in a couple of years. Itp 95: 83.9024° N, 24.4681° E also below at day 305 looking halodeclined
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Pavel

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #265 on: November 01, 2017, 09:16:01 AM »
Interesting GFS forecast for 10 November. The coldness could be everywhere except the inner basin

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #266 on: November 01, 2017, 01:47:49 PM »
NSIDC is showing new ice in James Bay and Eastern Hudson. Likely very thin and fragile at the moment.

Strangely I couldn't find any updates on the normally excellent Canadian Ice Service. Only concentrating on the northern Hudson.  :o

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #267 on: November 01, 2017, 03:35:52 PM »
Interesting GFS forecast for 10 November. The coldness could be everywhere except the inner basin

It is very nice if legends are included when images are posted.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #268 on: November 01, 2017, 08:04:20 PM »
Interesting GFS forecast for 10 November. The coldness could be everywhere except the inner basin

It is very nice if legends are included when images are posted.

Additionally, we should abstain from posting model forecasts past tau=120h on them. The GFS is a total tossup after this period, ECMWF is slightly better. At 5d+ intervals we should only be looking for very basic synoptic trends from the model runs.
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #269 on: November 02, 2017, 01:38:12 AM »
Interesting GFS forecast for 10 November. The coldness could be everywhere except the inner basin

It is very nice if legends are included when images are posted.

Additionally, we should abstain from posting model forecasts past tau=120h on them. The GFS is a total tossup after this period, ECMWF is slightly better. At 5d+ intervals we should only be looking for very basic synoptic trends from the model runs.

Not really clear to me why predictions are being posted at all -- other than perhaps seasonal ones.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #270 on: November 02, 2017, 02:53:52 AM »
Interesting GFS forecast for 10 November. The coldness could be everywhere except the inner basin

It is very nice if legends are included when images are posted.

Additionally, we should abstain from posting model forecasts past tau=120h on them. The GFS is a total tossup after this period, ECMWF is slightly better. At 5d+ intervals we should only be looking for very basic synoptic trends from the model runs.

Not really clear to me why predictions are being posted at all -- other than perhaps seasonal ones.

This thread tracks the freeze season. How is this any different than tracking the melt season where all manner of predictions are reviewed and discussed? It is entirely appropriate to post any items related to the current freeze season. And somebody who is posting their 12th comment has decided to set the rules for what is or is not appropriate??
« Last Edit: November 02, 2017, 02:52:29 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #271 on: November 02, 2017, 07:43:06 AM »
This is also what nullschool Forecasts in 4 days- not uncommon Configuration since 2014 January
The Polar Vortex is virtually split into two Cores above the Last Remaining Bastions of Ice:
Greenland & Siberian Permafrost

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #272 on: November 02, 2017, 04:45:04 PM »
That kind of stratospheric PV pattern (5-days out) enables the kind of the polar jet moisture/heat intrusion over Chukch & Bering sea region like we've seen during fall-winter 2016-2017. For what it's worth the stratospheric PV is forecasted to tighten up more after 10 days.  see:  http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #273 on: November 04, 2017, 12:35:13 PM »
I have been reading the 2017 melt season for a couple months. That was easy to follow, because i just had to read the numbers. But the freezing season is harder to get. What is the problem ?  Is the arctic not doing what it should be doing at this time. The melting season stoped somewhere in september, if i'm correct. And now we are in november. Is it not adding extra ice every day ?

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #274 on: November 04, 2017, 01:02:40 PM »
I have been reading the 2017 melt season for a couple months. That was easy to follow, because i just had to read the numbers. But the freezing season is harder to get. What is the problem ?  Is the arctic not doing what it should be doing at this time. The melting season stoped somewhere in september, if i'm correct. And now we are in november. Is it not adding extra ice every day ?

For numbers on the freezing season goto "2017 sea ice area and extent data"
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #275 on: November 04, 2017, 01:26:18 PM »
I have been reading the 2017 melt season for a couple months. That was easy to follow, because i just had to read the numbers. But the freezing season is harder to get. What is the problem ?  Is the arctic not doing what it should be doing at this time. The melting season stoped somewhere in september, if i'm correct. And now we are in november. Is it not adding extra ice every day ?
Just boring. No cataclysm in sight

dnem

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #276 on: November 04, 2017, 03:00:27 PM »
Certainly no expert Alexander, but there is a lot more to the melting season than just "the numbers." For example, always a lot of debate about extent vs area vs volume, as well as questions about regional happenings.  As for this freezing season, yes, the arctic is almost entirely below freezing now and ice is being added most everywhere.  But how much? Where? Has it been warmer so far than other freeze seasons? (yes, warmer than most; no, not as warm as last year). How about the issue of how an early freezeup might "seal in" heat that might otherwise be lost to space.  There is tons to learn here across the many threads.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #277 on: November 04, 2017, 03:49:47 PM »
I have been reading the 2017 melt season for a couple months. That was easy to follow, because i just had to read the numbers. But the freezing season is harder to get. What is the problem ?  Is the arctic not doing what it should be doing at this time. The melting season stoped somewhere in september, if i'm correct. And now we are in november. Is it not adding extra ice every day ?

This current freeze season is behaving very similar to recent freeze seasons with much warmer temperatures than normal and much lower SIE and SIA than normal at this point in the freeze season. No catastrophe in sight, just not the kind of polar winters that existed 3 decades ago. If you have been following the melt season as close as you have suggested, the exact same charts and data will tell you what I have just said. Follow....

Volume
SIA
SIE
Temperatures and temp anomalies
etc.

To really develop an understanding, follow the comments of expert posters here who know and understand far more than I do.

How do you tell the experts from the band of trolls who like to misdirect? I always look at the comment totals. We have people who have provided keen insights for over 4 years and have posted more than 4000 comments. You can also distinguish the valuable from the useless by whether the commenter attaches charts, graphs, data and links to research to support their comments. The experts will also often qualify their statements to allow for some uncertainty regarding their viewpoints if warranted. Trolls will categorically insist they are correct, impugn the integrity of others on this site while providing nothing to support their views. It can become tedious to wade through the trash to get real information. The strategy I use has worked for me. I will read all comments posted, reserving judgement about the value of the contributor. When it becomes clear the person is a troll, I set them on ignore so I don't have to read their trash anymore.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #278 on: November 04, 2017, 03:54:14 PM »
Oh...by the way...this is quite simply the best, most comprehensive climate change site available IMHO.

numerobis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #279 on: November 04, 2017, 07:31:51 PM »
No cataclysm, but no ice in Iqaluit yet, or even as far up as Qik. Unless some ice starts to form this week, it'll be slower than last year in this specific locality.

I'm seeing some deniers crow about how much faster the freeze-up is going this year than last year. Yawn.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #280 on: November 04, 2017, 08:49:27 PM »
No cataclysm, but no ice in Iqaluit yet, or even as far up as Qik. Unless some ice starts to form this week, it'll be slower than last year in this specific locality.

I'm seeing some deniers crow about how much faster the freeze-up is going this year than last year. Yawn.

yawn indeed but their pleasure will be short lived IMO

next stall or at least reduction in speed in sight like recently and another 2 or 3 of those of which this is the 2nd huge storm at high temps on the pacific side without specially low temps on the atlantic side, and we shall loose one rank after another until they have to look for new illusions to contaminate the WWW with :D  ;)

one should take from them all their money and give them a 1$ and 2$ next year to teach them that more does not always mean a lot or enough, not even double ;)
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 09:02:07 PM by magnamentis »

meddoc

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #281 on: November 05, 2017, 12:19:58 PM »

Just boring. No cataclysm in sight


Yawn. Just ask around about Trump threatening with Nuclear War (Winter), purely coincidentally.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #282 on: November 06, 2017, 01:07:12 AM »
yawn indeed but their pleasure will be short lived IMO

Will it? It would be shocking if this freezing season were even worse than last year's.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #283 on: November 06, 2017, 01:34:16 AM »
Itp 95 hovering around 84nth polewards of svalberd has been showing some regular overturning to below 700m with above the scale temps and salinity rising from deep to replace surface to depth downwelling as the surface cools.
Looking at the "Plot of ITP T & S Contours" vs the contents of "itp95last.dat" for the 3rd and 4th of November...

I really have to suspect that there is no such "overturning to below 700m", and that it only looks like that on the contour plot because of how they fill in missing data.

The 3rd of November had a massive cuision of very cold very fresh water from 26m to 100m, the 4th of November had no data readings shallower than 529m depth... but the contour plot for day 309 (Nov 4th) shows the top 100m as being suddenly warm and salty. There was no actual evidence to suggest a dramatic change.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #284 on: November 06, 2017, 01:45:12 AM »
Another day or two, 2017 will be second lowest for the date behind 2016.  It has just now caught 2012.  It's going to be another one of THOSE winters in the Arctic.

 https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png

And Wipneus has just informed us that Fram export has just started up again.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #285 on: November 06, 2017, 02:41:07 PM »
Some Atlantic weather for the weekend?
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #286 on: November 06, 2017, 03:01:31 PM »
yawn indeed but their pleasure will be short lived IMO

Will it? It would be shocking if this freezing season were even worse than last year's.

2016 was unprecedented. 2017 now looks like it is trying to break away from the pack, not only with a slow refreeze but with FDD anomalies as well. The question in my mind, if this continues, is whether we are seeing a shift in winter climate. I have found winters to be as exciting as summers. I just wish there were more experts commenting during the freeze season to explain what I am seeing.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #287 on: November 07, 2017, 03:11:45 PM »
The post by Numerobis above shows the FDD anomaly, which though high is significantly below 2016. The first image below shows 2017 and 2016 Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North, so far somewhat colder this year though still well above average.

The second image shows temperature anomalies forecast for the next few days, which indicate the continuation of high positive anomalies on the extreme Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic, as has been the case for some time.

Will this pattern persist and what will be the effect on the where and when of freezing in extent and volume?
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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #288 on: November 07, 2017, 04:50:07 PM »
The point is that there will definetly be some weak ice in the Pacific side of CAB by the end of freezing. This ice may dissapear quickly in any weather conditions as it happened this July\August. But Spring and June are very important to upload a new canonball if the conditions will be favourable to early melting. Last season it was cold\snowy\cloudy

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #289 on: November 07, 2017, 05:10:53 PM »
Some Atlantic weather for the weekend?

I don't know where you got that chart from Gerontocrat but the pressure centre labelling is all mixed up. Look at the three centres I've circled in bright green labelled "H".

The surface wind goes around the centres in an anticlockwise fashion so in the NH, they should be labelled "L".   :)

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #290 on: November 07, 2017, 05:16:19 PM »

I don't know where you got that chart from Gerontocrat but the pressure centre labelling is all mixed up. Look at the three centres I've circled in bright green labelled "H".

The surface wind goes around the centres in an anticlockwise fashion so in the NH, they should be labelled "L".   :)
Weather-forecast.com. It is a big operation.
They have always screwed up like that. I don't know why. I used to compare their image with other places and they looked all ok except for that basic dumbness. Perhaps someone ought to ask them.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #291 on: November 07, 2017, 05:33:32 PM »
No worries.

I like to use the weather.us charts for the northpole view. I see the Euro model is going for a large HP centre (>1050 hPa) just to the Russian side of the Arctic Basin by this time next week.


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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #292 on: November 07, 2017, 05:57:16 PM »
1 week out forecast....blehhhhh

numerobis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #293 on: November 07, 2017, 08:09:21 PM »
Won’t be long for the freeze-up in Iqaluit: at noon, I looked up and saw the brown mud flats of low tide; at 1 pm they were bright white in Koojesse Inlet, but still brown further out. I hear, from someone who just flew in, that was the scene all the way down the bay.

Also our first day with sundogs.

Also, out last tanker of the season just arrived to give us our final dose of fossil fuels until July.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #294 on: November 07, 2017, 09:43:27 PM »
2016 was unprecedented. 2017 now looks like it is trying to break away from the pack, not only with a slow refreeze but with FDD anomalies as well. The question in my mind, if this continues, is whether we are seeing a shift in winter climate. I have found winters to be as exciting as summers. I just wish there were more experts commenting during the freeze season to explain what I am seeing.
I don't post much on the freezing thread atm as I can't think of much to contribute. What you wrote represents my thinking as well, and I think the jury is still out on whether it's a step-changed winter climate or just random variations on a slow trend.
I just want to point out that the seasonal FDD chart is much more appropriate to this thread than the yearly one.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #295 on: November 07, 2017, 09:47:05 PM »

I just want to point out that the seasonal FDD chart is much more appropriate to this thread than the yearly one.

You mentioned this once before and, of course, you are correct. I'll try to remember to reference this one in the future.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #296 on: November 08, 2017, 12:02:42 AM »
Won’t be long for the freeze-up in Iqaluit

The CIS map for Davis Strait went crazy today. Ice edge has advanced 2 or 300 miles in 2 days. The traces of old ice have been left so far behind they're not even on the charts any more. (Moving at 24 miles/day).

AFAICT south of the narrows (Cape Dyer) it's just a dusting of snow that would melt if the wind changed (the water temps were still 0.8K+ above freezing until just now), but it's only going to keep snowing.

James Bay has the same thing now. New ice on the western margin (and a trace of it all the way around), and more snow on the way. This one is more surprising though as the water is still 2.5C+... (according to nullschool anyway).


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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #297 on: November 08, 2017, 02:58:41 AM »
The post by Numerobis above shows the FDD anomaly, which though high is significantly below 2016. The first image below shows 2017 and 2016 Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North, so far somewhat colder this year though still well above average.

The second image shows temperature anomalies forecast for the next few days, which indicate the continuation of high positive anomalies on the extreme Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic, as has been the case for some time.

Will this pattern persist and what will be the effect on the where and when of freezing in extent and volume?
I think the pattern will persist as long as we have so much open water in the Beaufort and Chukchi.  They're a powerful heat engine right now dumping energy directly into the Arctic.

The higher FDD's are a relief, but we're still below pretty much everything but 2016-2017.  We have an additional wildcard I'm going to be keen about - snowfall.

All of that open water combined with intrusions of moisture on the Pacific side are bound to increase the snowcover we have over the re-frozen ice.  This is translating into much more snowfall, and each additional inch of snow conservatively has 5+ times the insulative value of ice.  I will be interested in snow depth anomalies as much or more than I'll be interested in FDD's. 

Early deep snowfall has the potential to seriously impede late season thickening of the pack.

Aggregate depths in the past came later in the season and were typically below 40CM:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241392751_Snow_Depth_on_Arctic_Sea_Ice


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numerobis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #298 on: November 08, 2017, 02:39:47 PM »
Brigantine: maybe I’ll go take a picture today. Pretty sure it’s ice, not snow.

The tide is very big here and throughout Baffin. At low tide, a thin sheet of water seeps out; you can walk on the mud in hiking boots, but sneakers will get soaked. That sheet of water is what’s freezing first on the shore.

When the tide comes back in, thin ice stays stuck to the sea floor, with sea water above it (which is beautiful!). As it thickens, eventually it’s big enough to tear itself off.

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #299 on: November 08, 2017, 08:08:59 PM »
Itp 95 hovering around 84nth polewards of svalberd has been showing some regular overturning to below 700m with above the scale temps and salinity rising from deep to replace surface to depth downwelling as the surface cools.
Looking at the "Plot of ITP T & S Contours" vs the contents of "itp95last.dat" for the 3rd and 4th of November...

I really have to suspect that there is no such "overturning to below 700m", and that it only looks like that on the contour plot because of how they fill in missing data.

The 3rd of November had a massive cuision of very cold very fresh water from 26m to 100m, the 4th of November had no data readings shallower than 529m depth... but the contour plot for day 309 (Nov 4th) shows the top 100m as being suddenly warm and salty. There was no actual evidence to suggest a dramatic change.
I'm doubtful that much of this can be attributed to misgraphing of missing data. Many of these stripes are five to ten days wide. And show on disolved oxygen and up-down composit plots for temp salinity and do also. With two sampling descents per day that would be 10-20 missing logging runs in a row and half the last few months being publicly misrepresented.
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