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helorime

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Iceismylife

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1151 on: February 26, 2018, 11:57:42 PM »
But history would argue that a rapid response to freshwater melt during an ice age results in growing ice caps across a substantial portion of the NHEM and we may be seeing the beginnings of a mechanism that could result in exactly that.

No. We are in a period of rapid warming. That snow is annual and will be gone by summer. It takes cold summers to bring on ice ages.
Someone here had the idea that it is the other way around.  Get enough snow and it doesn't melt out in the summer.  That starts an albedo feedback loop.

numerobis

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1152 on: February 27, 2018, 12:41:56 AM »
The snow is definitely shallow here. There's lots of rocks peeking out, which will gather the heat.

Interesting tidbits: I was moving my tires three weeks ago on a warm -30-degree day. I kicked up some snow, which melted immediately on the tire and evaporated off.

Later that week I parked the car in the sun by sunny and -35. The frost on the inside of the windows facing the sun melted and evaporated off (depending on its depth). The moisture deposited itself on the windows facing away from the sun. It was hell to scrape off the next morning at -40, having been deposited in such a perfectly fine, thin, and cold layer.

Any surface that absorbs better than snow gets very hot in the mid-day sun here at about 64 N, even by early February. (If it's sunny. Today was cloudy; I turned up the thermostat in the office.)
« Last Edit: February 27, 2018, 01:20:38 AM by numerobis »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1153 on: February 27, 2018, 01:19:13 AM »
Fine weather over part of the Chukchi where the forecast low of (briefly) 961hPa turned out to be closer to 974.

There is some snow.

Nasa worldview brightness band 15,day this time shows some underlying ice fractures more clearly. The night image is mostly obscured by cloud.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1154 on: February 27, 2018, 01:25:57 AM »
Interesting tidbits:
Thanks numerobis. Your 'on the ground' observations really help to understand what is happening.

be cause

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1155 on: February 27, 2018, 01:53:16 AM »
Thanks Uniquorn .. I don't think I've ever spent more time studying one image .. I did not know I could have Arctic Worldview in winter . The North of Greenland on that image should be a screen-saver . Looking back over the month .. it looks worse than last summer over the pole .. and we certainly do not have last year's blanket of snow ..yet . bc
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Hautbois

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1156 on: February 27, 2018, 10:30:03 AM »
Looking over the DMI 80+degN average temperature data from their ftp site (thanks again Jim Hunt).

The day before yesterday was 263.9 Kelvin. The average for that day across the 1958-2017 range is 243.4K. So we just had a variance of 20.5K.

As far as I can see there are several individual days in previous years that were around 18K above average, but nothing like a 20-21K variance.

SimonF92

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1157 on: February 27, 2018, 11:11:11 AM »
A guy I work with put me onto a new resource.

It's definitely less esoteric/ scientific than most of the resources shared on here. But it does give some nice real time* data on predominant weather patterns in the high arctic (and world)- as well as some other tidbits.

Plus the GUI is really well designed :).

Hope this is an appropriate place to share, please let me know if not.

https://www.windy.com/?74.776,-36.563,3

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1158 on: February 27, 2018, 12:17:47 PM »
It looks like some gains on the pacific side yesterday, losses on the atlantic side. Ice lifting from the CAA again.
uni-hamburg amsr2 feb25-26

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1159 on: February 27, 2018, 12:19:59 PM »

Quote
substantial snowcover ...
Why so many mumbo-jumbo posts about snow cover? Some folks are confusing the Northern Hemisphere (half the planet) with the Arctic Ocean (a cold desert seasonally covered with floating ice occupying ten percent of the planet's oceans).

Actual daily data specific to the Arctic Ocean shows ankle-deep snow at best over almost the entire Arctic Ocean today, yesterday, the whole season (graphic below, open source data RASM-ESRL_4UAF_ICE_2018-02-25).

People here have been struggling with that: "Buffalo NY is not even half-way to the pole, it gets tons of snow, the Arctic Ocean is much farther north, it follows the Arctic Ocean has a vastly deeper snow cover than Buffalo NY". It doesn't. It has vastly less.

Ankle-deep is a stand-in for 100 mm (0.1 m, 3.9 inches). Ankle-deep is much less than knee-deep  or waist-deep.

Data re precipitation in the Arctic Ocean may be patchy, but there is good data from Greenland. The two examples below show how the farther North you get the dryer it gets.

SIORAPALUK (Thule - way up in the NorthWest)
The average amount of precipitation for the year in Siorapaluk is 6.4" (162.6 mm). The month with the most precipitation on average is August with 1.0" (25.4 mm) of precipitation. The month with the least precipitation on average is February with an average of 0.3" (7.6 mm). There are an average of 65.6 days of precipitation, with the most precipitation occurring in October with 7.6 days and the least precipitation occurring in June with 3.9 days.


NARSARSUAQ
(Way down South)
Generally, it is cold and temperate in Narsarsuaq. Narsarsuaq is a city with a significant rainfall. Even in the driest month there is a lot of rain. According to Köppen and Geiger, this climate is classified as Dfb. The temperature here averages 1.1 °C. The rainfall here averages 743 mm.

The attached table shows how Greenland is a pretty dry place- just 10 inches of rainfall equivalent in an average year.  Most precipitation is from lows from the south dumping on the mountains on the SE coastal region.

Logic suggests that snow in the Arctic Ocean (no mountains) and even farther north, must be a lot less.

Thanks A-team - your posts always give me a reason to improve my knowledge.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1160 on: February 27, 2018, 02:57:07 PM »
To finish off what I hope reinforces all that A-Team said about snow.

The Polar Science Center say in their PIOMAS updates that on average  16,400 cubic kilometres ice (= 16,400 GT) are melted during the brief Arctic summer.
In contrast, average maximum Northern Hemisphere (excluding mountains) snow water equivalent is about 2,800 Gigatons (GT) (= km3). This year it may max out at about 3,300 GT, a very unusual additional 500 GT. (Last graph in https://www.ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current )

Only a small fraction of that 500 GT can have an impact on the Arctic, i.e. a fraction of about 3% of ice melted every summer in the Arctic. A 0.3 degree rise in Arctic temperatures over the last 5(?) years would surely do for any impacts of increased snowfall in Quebec?
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Sterks

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1161 on: February 27, 2018, 03:43:28 PM »
To finish off what I hope reinforces all that A-Team said about snow.

The Polar Science Center say in their PIOMAS updates that on average  16,400 cubic kilometres ice (= 16,400 GT) are melted during the brief Arctic summer.
In contrast, average maximum Northern Hemisphere (excluding mountains) snow water equivalent is about 2,800 Gigatons (GT) (= km3). This year it may max out at about 3,300 GT, a very unusual additional 500 GT. (Last graph in https://www.ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current )

Only a small fraction of that 500 GT can have an impact on the Arctic, i.e. a fraction of about 3% of ice melted every summer in the Arctic. A 0.3 degree rise in Arctic temperatures over the last 5(?) years would surely do for any impacts of increased snowfall in Quebec?

Not sure that I understand you, gerontocrat, but the impact of NH snow on melting seasons has been really well established these past seasons, just see Rob Dekker's model. More important than mass here is the area that snow persistently covers in a cold Spring (or stops covering too soon in a warm Spring) in the NH, which increases (decreases) the normal NH albedo, which ends up being a factor muting or enhancing the sea ice melting season. The volume is not so important

But I may be missing the real topic here...

Edit. I was lazy. Reding A-Teams post I suspect now why you were comparing ice volume with snow volume at the NH level.
Still let us keep a good eye on how NH snow cover starts to decline toward May or so. Last year vast extensions of Asia stayed covered with snow well into June because Spring was really late, and that "quenched" the otherwise hot season that was coming (may-be)
« Last Edit: February 27, 2018, 03:52:34 PM by Sterks »

Alexander555

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1162 on: February 27, 2018, 07:38:41 PM »
It looks like some gains on the pacific side yesterday, losses on the atlantic side. Ice lifting from the CAA again.
uni-hamburg amsr2 feb25-26

How thick is that bleu area east of the North Pole on 26 February ? Or is there no ice anymore ?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1163 on: February 27, 2018, 09:53:40 PM »
How thick is that bleu area east of the North Pole

Not as thick as I would like.
Ice from north of CAA making it's way towards the Fram Strait as it often does. It will be interesting to see how much of it gets there. The first image is cloudy to the right, but is useful to show the ice motion.
Nasa worldview brightness temperature band 15,day Feb26-27

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1164 on: February 27, 2018, 10:21:29 PM »
How low will you go?
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Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1165 on: February 27, 2018, 10:46:20 PM »
How low will you go?

If recent history is anything to go by, not as low as the green line.  ;)  :'(
« Last Edit: February 27, 2018, 10:51:48 PM by Neven »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1166 on: February 27, 2018, 10:58:34 PM »
  And honestly, melting the snow on top and then refreezing it as ice... I'm not sure what the impact of that would be, but it might even help with albedo (ice being more reflective than snow iirc).

Ice is not more reflective than snow and partially melted and refrozen snow is not as reflective as fresh powder snow.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html
« Last Edit: February 27, 2018, 11:08:46 PM by Shared Humanity »

meddoc

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1167 on: February 28, 2018, 08:16:07 AM »
Nullschool shows yet another Polar Vortex Split in the coming Days. It is being tossed around, from Labrador over the Central Arctic today, when it will get ripped in half- again- into a 2-Core- System: Labrador and Yamal Peninsula.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/03/04/0600Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-1.79,87.11,304
« Last Edit: February 28, 2018, 09:16:37 AM by meddoc »

Alexander555

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1168 on: February 28, 2018, 09:31:27 AM »
How thick is that bleu area east of the North Pole

Not as thick as I would like.
Ice from north of CAA making it's way towards the Fram Strait as it often does. It will be interesting to see how much of it gets there. The first image is cloudy to the right, but is useful to show the ice motion.
Nasa worldview brightness temperature band 15,day Feb26-27

Somebody posted this pic at the end of the 2017 melt season. That's pretty remarkable. At the end of the melt season there  is still some 3 to 4 meter thick ice. And almost at the end of the freezing season it's op water. In 2012 it was still a lot more. It has been declining all the time. And now it's gone in the freezing season. How did that happen ? Melting from beneath ?

Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1169 on: February 28, 2018, 10:56:28 AM »
Alexander, many here believe that this model's output isn't all that reliable.
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meddoc

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1170 on: February 28, 2018, 11:31:32 AM »
Alexander, many here believe that this model's output isn't all that reliable.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

This, however seems to be catching the Lift- off off the northern Coast of Greenland.

echoughton

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1171 on: February 28, 2018, 12:35:23 PM »
Could not view that site, meddoc. I agree with Nevin. Data and Models or whatever has to be wrong. Is the water underneath 3 meters of ice THAT warm....5 C or higher....to melt the ice pack and create massive holes in that ice during a mild yet still very frigid winter??? Impossible. Those spikes in the DMI graph are STILL way below zero C.

meddoc

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1172 on: February 28, 2018, 01:15:54 PM »
Could not view that site, meddoc. I agree with Nevin. Data and Models or whatever has to be wrong. Is the water underneath 3 meters of ice THAT warm....5 C or higher....to melt the ice pack and create massive holes in that ice during a mild yet still very frigid winter??? Impossible. Those spikes in the DMI graph are STILL way below zero C.

I guess You need to start from here, to view:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html

Regarding the Lift off north of Greenland, I guess it is a Combination of multiple Factors:

-warm Air Inflow
-bottom Melt
-mechanical Damage (from high Winds/ Ice Thinness- this is visible all over the Pack in recent Years)
-& Methane amplifying Feedback

Alexander555

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1173 on: February 28, 2018, 01:22:24 PM »
Alexander, many here believe that this model's output isn't all that reliable.


And do they believe that there is open water North of Greenland ? Because it has been -20 degree C for at least 3 to 4 months. That should be enough to protect that top layer. Or something is going on beneath that surface. And what models do they prefere to measure thickness ?

oren

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1174 on: February 28, 2018, 01:55:21 PM »
Alexander, many here believe that this model's output isn't all that reliable.


And do they believe that there is open water North of Greenland ? Because it has been -20 degree C for at least 3 to 4 months. That should be enough to protect that top layer. Or something is going on beneath that surface. And what models do they prefere to measure thickness ?
The thick ice north of Greenland did not melt, it shifted and moved.
The relatively high temperatures prevented an immediate refreeze so we got open water.

ivica

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1175 on: February 28, 2018, 02:05:53 PM »
Alexander, many here believe that this model's output isn't all that reliable.


And do they believe that there is open water North of Greenland ? Because it has been -20 degree C for at least 3 to 4 months. That should be enough to protect that top layer. Or something is going on beneath that surface. And what models do they prefere to measure thickness ?
The thick ice north of Greenland did not melt, it shifted and moved.
The relatively high temperatures prevented an immediate refreeze so we got open water.

And there are animations up-thread, A-Team's as example:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2141.msg143683.html#msg143683

Alexander555

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1176 on: February 28, 2018, 02:11:35 PM »
I can't play the movies, are they showing the ice is moving ?

ivica

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1177 on: February 28, 2018, 02:15:20 PM »
I can't play the movies, are they showing the ice is moving ?
Oh, yes. Very amazing "12 days of Fram intrusive event bumped.gif (5519.03 kB, 700x656 - viewed 1148 times."

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1178 on: February 28, 2018, 02:18:37 PM »
Today's image of ice north of Greenland. There is not too much cloud and the ice front can be seen quite clearly. Thicker ice and floes can easily be distinguished amongst thinner, newer ice.

The animation is a bit of a marathon but I have kept it slow to show that even where older ice is visible in many cases it is already fractured. Cloudy days are not shown.
Quote
-bottom Melt
-mechanical Damage
-warm Air Inflow more recently.

Nasa worldview brightness temperature band15 night Nov2017-Feb2018

Alexander555

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1179 on: February 28, 2018, 02:34:15 PM »
So all the ice is fractured ? And is there a way to find out how thick the ice is for the moment.

Tigertown

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1180 on: February 28, 2018, 02:48:19 PM »
I think this to be a pretty good source.

Alexander555

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1181 on: February 28, 2018, 03:14:34 PM »
Today's image of ice north of Greenland. There is not too much cloud and the ice front can be seen quite clearly. Thicker ice and floes can easily be distinguished amongst thinner, newer ice.

The animation is a bit of a marathon but I have kept it slow to show that even where older ice is visible in many cases it is already fractured. Cloudy days are not shown.
Quote
-bottom Melt
-mechanical Damage
-warm Air Inflow more recently.

Nasa worldview brightness temperature band15 night Nov2017-Feb2018

You can see very well when this fellow walked by. That was on 23 feb.

Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1182 on: February 28, 2018, 03:18:53 PM »
There's observations from CryoSat, which is a satellite. But as it observes only swathes of the Arctic, a couple of miles across (I forgot how much), I'm not sure if it's picking up this event. Plenty of freeboard, though. I don't know if they're doing Operation IceBridge this year (measuring with planes), but if they are, they're not doing it now.

I still like PIOMAS best overall, but whatever you pick, it's best to compare interannually, and not compare models with each other (like: this one says it's 3 metres there, and the other one says it's 1.5).

The problem with ACNFS, or CICE, or Hycom, or whatever the name is, is that there's different versions with different inconsistencies. It's also run for and by the government/military, not for scientific purposes, which makes it more difficult to check what they do exactly. I don't have the time or inclination to constantly check how accurate it is, but I do notice it's occasionally used by both alarmists and climate risk deniers, meaning it can sometimes show what people want to see.

I'm not sure about the DMI or Mercator/TOPAZ models either. But hey, it's really difficult to model sea ice thickness. I think PIOMAS gives a good general idea of what's going on. It has proven itself over the years, as far as I'm concerned.
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Pavel

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1183 on: February 28, 2018, 05:29:20 PM »
Open water above Greenland is unprecedent in February, but this also protect MYI to leave through the Fram strait. There's plenty of ice in the CAB that will definetely survive the melting season. The only cannonball that able to break records is the early surface melting, low albedo, clear sky, GACs. But of course things are exciting, let's see how it will go further

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1184 on: February 28, 2018, 05:32:04 PM »
The atmosphere over the Arctic ocean has been so war this winter that there has been a large outgoing longwave radiation anomaly (OLR). Repeated warm air intrusions at levels from 850mb up to 200mb have radiated anomalous levels of heat out to space and downward towards the ice.

Over ice free oceans higher OLR than normal indicates areas of lower than normal cloudiness and areas of low OLR show areas that have been cloudier and stormier than normal. I have been looking at OLR maps for years to follow tropical convection and ocean heat patterns but I've never seen more than a small OLR anomaly over the Arctic ocean when it was ice covered. February 2013, when there was a huge high pressure dome over the Arctic ocean for the whole month was the most favorable situation for ice thickening by heat loss to space I've ever seen but it didn't create an OLR anomaly like this one because the air was not warm like it has been this year.


Alexander555

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1185 on: February 28, 2018, 05:39:34 PM »
Open water above Greenland is unprecedent in February, but this also protect MYI to leave through the Fram strait. There's plenty of ice in the CAB that will definetely survive the melting season. The only cannonball that able to break records is the early surface melting, low albedo, clear sky, GACs. But of course things are exciting, let's see how it will go further

When i saw the first post with the information about the open water north of Greenland. It caught my attention. But it came not up in my mind for a second that it was caused by a storm. Because i always tought that this was the area with the thick and solid ice. But it's not solid at all. So in what condition is the rest of the Arctic ?
« Last Edit: February 28, 2018, 11:12:16 PM by Alexander555 »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1186 on: March 01, 2018, 12:31:46 AM »
A clear view today off the coast of Barrow. The floes that A-Team has been tracking are still visible using Nasa worldview brightness temperature band15.
Significant fracturing. Refreezing is also evident (-33C at present)

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1187 on: March 01, 2018, 02:47:18 AM »
The atmosphere over the Arctic ocean has been so war this winter that there has been a large outgoing longwave radiation anomaly (OLR)....

If you consider the effect of the map projection, the 'large' OLR over the Arctic will be tiny (if measured in square kilometres) in comparison with the OLR anomaly over the central Pacific, about 180 degrees away from the Arctic one. 

There may be some sort of dipole connection between these two, but otherwise I don't see any corresponding sink (cold spot) in the OLR map which could offset the loss.  Is this just a seasonal thing, or a new feature?

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1188 on: March 01, 2018, 04:54:12 AM »
Opened up north of CAA as well.
Compare Mar 4 2017 on top.
28 Feb 2018 on bottom.
Same area, Arctic Ocean, just north of CAA

uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1189 on: March 01, 2018, 02:03:47 PM »
Similar ice movement in the Laptev and East Siberian seas yesterday. Mobile ice pulling away from the compacted areas.
Worldview aqua/modis and brightness temp band15 Feb28

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1190 on: March 01, 2018, 02:59:39 PM »
I shall be watching the Okhotsk and Bering Seas over the next week or so. Yet more strong lows processing up along the coast of Japan and hitting the Okhotsk and /or the Bering Sea. These must be doing a damage to the sea ice, and maybe bringing in warmth as the sun rises in the sky.

Image is from cci-reanalyzer 6th March.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1191 on: March 01, 2018, 03:30:56 PM »
The Arctic OLR anomaly probably started to be apparent last winter which had frequent blocking and record warmth. In the the past 30 days the anomaly has reached record strength.

Of course, this map projection does not conserve area so the size of the Arctic anomaly on the map should not be compared with the size of the Pacific anomaly on the map.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1192 on: March 01, 2018, 07:09:56 PM »
I shall be watching the Okhotsk and Bering Seas over the next week or so. Yet more strong lows processing up along the coast of Japan and hitting the Okhotsk and /or the Bering Sea. These must be doing a damage to the sea ice, and maybe bringing in warmth as the sun rises in the sky.

Image is from cci-reanalyzer 6th March.

Looks remarkably like the Atlantic cyclone cannon.

romett1

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1193 on: March 01, 2018, 09:16:59 PM »
I shall be watching the Okhotsk and Bering Seas over the next week or so. Yet more strong lows processing up along the coast of Japan and hitting the Okhotsk and /or the Bering Sea. These must be doing a damage to the sea ice, and maybe bringing in warmth as the sun rises in the sky.
I did some statistics - this is Bering Sea ice area (km²) in second half of February 2018 vs average area for 2008 - 2017. Those numbers are clearly at record low levels. And looking at March 5 and March 6 we see temps around 0 °C again. Source: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/


Alexander555

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1194 on: March 01, 2018, 09:50:30 PM »
Do you think this is the result of the vortex collaps from a couple months ago ? The cold went deep into the eastern part of the US. And you see the Saint-Lawrence bay is frozen. And more ice in Baffin. On the other side it was very cold all the way to South-Korea, and you see some more ice in Ochotsk. And a big piece is missing north of Svalbard and in the Bering sea. But Bering and the area North of Svalbard are also effected by the Altantic and Pasific sea, and it was warmer than normal, the air.

That area north of Svalbard , was that always frozen in the years before 2017 ? Because that's a big area pretty close to the Arctic.

And now again we are in a  collaps of the Vortex, pumping arctic cold out of the arctic , into Europe. Cold that shoud thickning the arctic ice. So maybe we could be in for a nasty surprise, for a low minimum in September.

Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1195 on: March 01, 2018, 10:00:13 PM »
Alexander, as of tomorrow you can start comparing this year's Uni Bremen sea ice concentration map to those of previous years (2005-2017) on the same date on the ASIG: Concentration maps.

Which reminds me that I need to update them. I'll do that soon.
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Alexander555

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1196 on: March 01, 2018, 10:43:26 PM »
Or it has to improve a lot in one day, or it looks like the worst ever. Even 2012 was looking much better.

Neven

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1197 on: March 01, 2018, 10:56:53 PM »
Keep in mind that the situation can change rather drastically north of Svalbard for a while to come. What you see now, is the effect of that huge wind, blowing the ice back towards the centre. The models forecast a high pressure system over the Central Arctic for the coming week, which means the winds reverse and the ice gets pushed towards the Atlantic again.

The ice can get pushed all the way to Svalbard, well into June (7th for instance).
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1198 on: March 01, 2018, 11:10:07 PM »
I shall be watching the Okhotsk

I hope this helps. Feb20-Mar1

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« Reply #1199 on: March 02, 2018, 12:24:05 AM »
I think this explains Warm Arctic, Cold Continents (waccy) rather well...note that the land is pretty close to normal.