JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 5,045,380 km2(October 10, 2018)
Normal service may be gradually returning, in bits -
- Extent increase a less than average 78k km2,
- Extent is 711 k (12.4 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 861 k (14.6 %) below 2017 on this date.
- freezing to date from minimum is 853k (59.2%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- on average 14.5% (1/7th)of the increase in extent is done.
An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.48 million km2 (400k < 2017). Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.11 million km2, some 770,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
From the GFS maps it looks like North of 80 will go through a cold patch Friday to Sunday, but return to strong +ve temp anomalies by Monday. The GFs maps also indicate that overall the Arctic is going to stay at above average temperatures, the +ve anomaly approaching 5 degrees celsius by mid-week, i.e. if temperature has anything to do with it the outlook is for slow extent increase for the next 5 days and perhaps beyond.
Perhaps when this relatively warm period ends, extent gain will rebound very strongly. But maybe the delay in freezing will also reduce thickening of the ice. There is a good chance that in a week or so 2018 extent will be at a record low, which is a surprise (at least to me).
ps: The opposite is happening in the Antarctic - melting has barely started, very slowly underway.
pps: postings will be erratic while I dump microsoft office for "libre". (Next year dumping Windows - microsoft nearly lost my data for me - paying Microsoft licence fees is like voting Republican or for Brexit - volunteering for grief).