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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #300 on: March 16, 2018, 02:58:47 PM »

No that it is very important, but on March 15th, the year 2018 is the fifth lowest. 2006 is also below 2018.

                  March 15         vs. 2018
2018        13,875,677   
2006        13,874,040          -1,637
2015        13,724,438      -151,239
2016        13,874,820             -857
2017        13,818,067        -57,610

P.S. And there is still some anomaly cold weather on the following days...  ;)

Well spotted JCG,

The longer the 2018 freezing season lasts, the more of the previous years were in melting season, and 2018 could slip further down the table. While the Arctic as a whole looks like staying obstinately cold, maybe at the periphery sufficient warmth and insolation will end the season by the equinox, or maybe not.
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jdallen

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #301 on: March 16, 2018, 06:06:21 PM »

No that it is very important, but on March 15th, the year 2018 is the fifth lowest. 2006 is also below 2018.

                  March 15         vs. 2018
2018        13,875,677   
2006        13,874,040          -1,637
2015        13,724,438      -151,239
2016        13,874,820             -857
2017        13,818,067        -57,610

P.S. And there is still some anomaly cold weather on the following days...  ;)

Well spotted JCG,

The longer the 2018 freezing season lasts, the more of the previous years were in melting season, and 2018 could slip further down the table. While the Arctic as a whole looks like staying obstinately cold, maybe at the periphery sufficient warmth and insolation will end the season by the equinox, or maybe not.
What I note actually is (1) how close all the numbers are and (2) the serious observed differences in ice quality and distribution.

I have doubts that snow such as in Quebec will significantly slow melt down other than locally.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #302 on: March 17, 2018, 01:05:20 PM »
JAXA extent on March 16th is  13,874,375 km2, NOT yet another  new maximum for the year . Extent isnow  fourth lowest for the day, greater than 2015, 2017 and 2006. (Now less than 2016)

Extent decreased by 1,312 km2, making 2017 extent just 3,912 km2 less than the record low maximum of 2017. The table now shows a a maximum of 13.90k, not quite a record low. In 7 out of the last 10 years maximum had been reached, i.e. extent loss was now happening. In 4 years, significant extent gain was still to occur.

One might think that with no meaningful change in extent, things were quiet. How wrong can one be. Ice is moving around, cracking, new ice forming. This implies the ice has more room to move around. Does not this also imply that the more freedom of movement shown, the lower the volume? But how would one construct an index of mobility or freedom of movement so trends over time could be observed?

The vagaries of the weather in the peripheral seas will determine the timing of the final result as regards extent.  One waits a little bit for NSIDC data.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #303 on: March 17, 2018, 01:51:32 PM »
NSIDC Regional Data (peripheral seas) as at 16th March
N.B. 5 day trailing average


Activity in extent a bit less  - and still only exists in the peripheral seas. .  Net increase in periphery 36 k, due to Bering + 11k, Okhotsk + 11k,  and Greenland + 7, Barents + 10k. Bering Sea extent up by 176 k in 7 days. Extent LOSS in CAB seas a mind-boggling 660  km2 in the Central Arctic Sea, (which is, I suspect, not statistically significant.)

SNOW
It is being said by some commentators that loads of snow in N. America, especially Quebec Province, will slow down melt. It is obviously logical. However, the two peripheral seas with the most significant and persistent melt in March to date are The St. Lawrence, over half extent gone (down 131 k to just 97k) and Baffin (mainly southern end down 170 k or 12% ). Hudson Bay concentration does not look so good in parts as well. (After writing this St Lawrence starts to gain extent.)


NISIDC Arctic daily extent  14,502,000 km2, DOWN 56k. The contrast with regional data must be because regional data is  five-day-trailing average. This largish extent reduction must feed through to regional 5 day data in the days to come.

Is that it for NSIDC extent? More days to wait.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #304 on: March 18, 2018, 01:48:08 PM »
NSIDC Regional Data (peripheral seas) as at 16th March
N.B. 5 day trailing average

Whoops - table added

Activity in extent a bit less as expected from data re total daily extent- and still (mostly) only exists in the peripheral seas. Net increase in periphery 21 k, due to Bering + 15k, Okhotsk + 8k,  and Greenland + 6k, Barents + 6k.  baffin down 10k. Extent LOSS in CAB seas a further mind-boggling 2,637 km2 in addition to the 660  km2 on the 16th March in the Central Arctic Sea, (which is, I suspect, not statistically significant.)

SNOW
No more comments here. I am having a think about snow and permafrost. But if anything comes of it I will plonk it in the "Ice-free Arctic" thread (in "Consequences" section). Something did so I posted it.


NISIDC Arctic daily extent   14,467,000  km2, up 19k after the 56k reduction on the 16th. The NSIDC maximum this year is currently 14.504 million on the 14th March.

Is that it for NSIDC extent? Yet more days to wait.

(JAXA doing its annoying day off thing again.)
« Last Edit: March 18, 2018, 03:13:53 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #305 on: March 19, 2018, 09:30:02 AM »
As already reported by JCG elesewhere, JAXA extent on March 18th is  13,833,573  km2, which may very well mean that the max on 11th March of 13.891 million km2 was the 2018 maximum. This would mean 2018 comes in a t no #2 record low maximum.

Perhaps of more significance is that due to the late date of this maximum, extent on 18th March is 277k greater than 2017 extent on that date. But as pointed out elsewhere, although this means less early insolation, the date of maximum seems to have little correlation with eventual minimum extent.

Is this it ? Will Neven pull the lever and let the 2018 melt comments flood out?
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Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #306 on: March 19, 2018, 09:43:12 AM »
Is this it ? Will Neven pull the lever and let the 2018 melt comments flood out?

Two more drops and I certainly will. Expect the 2018 melting season thread to open on Wednesday.  :)
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E. Smith

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #307 on: March 19, 2018, 09:51:21 AM »
As already reported by JCG elesewhere
...
Is this it ? Will Neven pull the lever and let the 2018 melt comments flood out?
Elsewhere would be here?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2265.100.html
When Neven opens the blue ocean season on Wednesday; duck and cover!  :)
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be cause

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #308 on: March 19, 2018, 11:43:03 AM »
meanwhile the dmi 80 temps almost touch the long term average for the date ..
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #309 on: March 19, 2018, 12:44:40 PM »
Hi gerontocrat!

It is 17th, not 11th...
As already reported by JCG elesewhere, JAXA extent on March 18th is  13,833,573  km2, which may very well mean that the max on 11th 17th March of 13.891 million km2 was the 2018 maximum. This would mean 2018 comes in a t no #2 record low maximum.

Edit:
Hi!

On march 17th, JAXA 2018 register 13,891,190 km2, which is now the max for 2018.
Also, it is 12,903 km2 above the 2017 max, so 2018 is not the lowest on record anymore. But it is still under the 2015 and 2016 max, so 2018 is now the second lowest max on record.

On march 18th, JAXA 2018 register 13,833,573 km2, an important drop of 57,617 km2. In my opinion, it starts to be difficult to have a max above 2015 (13.94M km2), that now it is the third lowest on record.

Congrats Neven! Max on March 17th! And also on the range you voted!  ;)
We just have to wait some days, to confirm the max and open the melting season thread.

PS: At least 2 times on the year, I become addicted to JAXA! Please give me my daily dosis, JAXA!  ;D
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 01:03:04 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #310 on: March 19, 2018, 12:48:14 PM »
meanwhile the dmi 80 temps almost touch the long term average for the date ..

Melting, when it occurs, will be confined to South of 80 for some time yet.
Also a big debate on relevance of 2m air temperatures vs. cloudiness (insolation effect), sst anomalies and ocean temps at greater depths and wind, waves, snow on depth on the arctic fringe ....... etc etc.

Nevertheless, the graph shows a huge drop from the early March extreme high and it is persistently low. Cannot find similar in recent years.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #311 on: March 19, 2018, 01:11:03 PM »
Hi gerontocrat!

It is 17th, not 11th...
As already reported by JCG elesewhere, JAXA extent on March 18th is  13,833,573  km2, which may very well mean that the max on 11th 17th March of 13.891 million km2 was the 2018 maximum. This would mean 2018 comes in a t no #2 record low maximum.

Hi Juan - this getting to be an embarassingly regular occurrence. I am not checking me data properly. So thanks for the correction(s).

Meanwhile - NSIDC DATA at 18th March. Might encourage El Presidente Neven not to wait for a further two days of JAXA extent reduction?

NSIDC Daily Extent at 18th March = 14.349 million km2, down 117k on the day and down 155k on the maximum to date on the 14th March.

NSIDC Peripheral Seas Extent as at 18th march - 5 day trailing average

Total Extent gain of Peripheral Seas of 23k on 17th March turned round to small extent loss of 5k, mainly due to extent loss in Baffin (-8k) and Barents (-6k). Expect much greater extent changes as large drop in daily Arctic extent impacts 5 day totals.

Also to be noted is third day of extent loss in Central Arctic Ocean  (9k in total).
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #312 on: March 20, 2018, 02:13:19 AM »
Hi Juan - this getting to be an embarassingly regular occurrence. I am not checking me data properly. So thanks for the correction(s).

Don't worry. Too much numbers and things going on. The true is that there is surely an emotional pressure when we follow the ASI events so closely. But well, at least talking about my feelings, hopefully we can relax a little, with the DMI temperature drop and because the ASI is not breaking daily records now.  :)

I'm not saying that there is a rebound. But it could be worst, if the JAXA max where on March 1st.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #313 on: March 20, 2018, 08:05:01 AM »
Another 70K down today according JAXA...

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #314 on: March 20, 2018, 08:11:58 AM »
JAXA extent on March 19th is  13,761,282  km2,. This is a drop of 72k on top of the 58k the day before. Obviously this increases the likelihood that the maximum on 17th March of 13.891 million km2 was the 2018 maximum. This would mean 2018 comes in at no #2 record low maximum, just 13k above 2017 (well within the standard error of JAXA data?).

Extent is now third lowest behind 2017 and 2015, though it looks as though that will change to 2nd in the next day or two (2015 gained extent to 26th March)

Due to the late date of this maximum, extent on 19th March is still 201k greater than 2017 extent on that date.  On the other hand the 2018 March average is still more than 100k below 2017 and in 2017 there was a very low extent loss of 4k during the remainder of March.

I attach 2 tables below. The first looks at maximum. All previous years' data say the maximum has happened. The second table looks forward to the September minimum. Previous years' data give projections of the 2018 minimum ranging from a low of 2.25  to a high of 4.67 million km2 and an average of 3.94 million. My prediction is that the result will be none of those figures.

Meanwhile, NSIDC data will tell us where the extent loss is happening and maybe put even more pressure on the Guv'nor to open the floodgates of the melting season thread.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2018, 09:49:13 AM by gerontocrat »
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Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #315 on: March 20, 2018, 09:20:27 AM »
Meanwhile, NSIDC data will tell us where the extent loss is happening and maybe put even more pressure on the Guv'nor to open the floodgates of the melting season thread.

Little Hansje Brinker shouts: Wednesday!  ;)

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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #316 on: March 20, 2018, 09:57:21 AM »
Meanwhile, NSIDC data will tell us where the extent loss is happening and maybe put even more pressure on the Guv'nor to open the floodgates of the melting season thread.

Little Hansje Brinker shouts: Wednesday!  ;)



I was told Little Hansje Brinker was drowned in the flood, and his Mum said, " I kept on telling him to stop shoving his finger into that damn dyke, but he would not listen".
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Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #317 on: March 20, 2018, 10:06:11 AM »
I was told Little Hansje Brinker was drowned in the flood, and his Mum said, " I kept on telling him to stop shoving his finger into that damn dyke, but he would not listen".

Fake news.  ;)

One more drop tomorrow and the thread will be opened.
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #318 on: March 20, 2018, 11:30:08 AM »
Simple...but not dumb...question: How can we be switching to melt mode when the temps up there are the frigidest of the season???

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #319 on: March 20, 2018, 11:53:00 AM »
Simple...but not dumb...question: How can we be switching to melt mode when the temps up there are the frigidest of the season???

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png
Because the arctic is not a single location. The southern periphery is already melting while the inner areas continue freezing up until May.

El Cid

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #320 on: March 20, 2018, 12:03:28 PM »
Simple...but not dumb...question: How can we be switching to melt mode when the temps up there are the frigidest of the season???

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png

Because DMI calculates temperatures north of 80 and the melting is going on much further south

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #321 on: March 20, 2018, 01:15:48 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent at 19th March = 14.309 million km2, down 40k on the day and down 195k on the maximum to date on the 14th March 0f 14.504 million km2.

While this maximum is 57k greater than the 2017 record low maximum on 5th March and extent at 19th March is 114k greater than 2017 on that date , the March 2018 simple average to date is 112k less than the 2017 simple March average to the 19th March. It is therefore probable that NSIDC will record March 2018 as the lowest extent in the satellite record.

NSIDC Peripheral Seas Extent as at 19th march - 5 day trailing average

As expected the daily extent losses of the total Arctic are feeding into the five-day average extent losses in the peripheral seas. Peripheral Seas extent losses were 33k, up from 5k the day before.

Also to be noted is the fourth day of extent loss in Central Arctic Ocean (13k in total).

But nothing will persuade the Guv'nor to not wait til tomorrow to open the 2018 melting thread. (Anybody got a few hundred thousand bucks lying around doing nothing and needing a home?)
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #322 on: March 21, 2018, 05:28:37 AM »
JAXA extent on March 20th is 13,713,053 km². This is a drop of 178k in 3 days - 48k (20 Mar), 72k (19 Mar), 58k (18 Mar). Obviously this will convince even the Guv'nor that the maximum on 17th March of 13.891 million km2 was the 2018 maximum. 2018 comes in at no #2 record low maximum, just 13k above 2017 (well within the standard error of JAXA data?).

Extent is now third lowest behind 2017 (154k) and 2015 (7k) , though it looks as though that will probably change to 2nd on 21 March (2015 gained extent 21st to 26th March)

Due to the late date of this maximum, extent on 19th March is still 154k greater than 2017 extent on that date.  On the other hand the 2018 March simple average is still more than 100k below 2017 and in 2017 there was a very low extent loss during the remainder of March.

Previous years' data give projections of the 2018 minimum ranging from a low of 2.23 (2012 high melt) to a high of 4.67 million km2 (2017 low melt) and an average of 3.91 million. The 2.23 million result needs to be treated with caution. On 20th March 2012 extent was 0.95 million km2 greater than in 2018. It seems to me that a large part of the 2012 extremely high melt was simply catching up due to a late start to melting, (plus a late season fillip due to the late August central arctic cyclone)

My prediction is that the result will be none of those figures (bad joke). Meanwhile, NSIDC regional sea data will tell us where the current extent loss is happening.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #323 on: March 21, 2018, 01:38:00 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent at 20th March = 14.210 million km2, down 99 k on the day and down 294k on the maximum to date on the 14th March of 14.504 million km2.

Extent at 20th March is 7 k LESS than 2017 on that date , and the March 2018 simple average to date is 111k less than the 2017 simple March average to the 20th March. It is therefore very probable that NSIDC will record March 2018 as the lowest extent in the satellite record, especially given that in 2017 extent loss from 20th to 31st March was a measly 45 k.

NSIDC Peripheral Seas Extent as at 20th March - 5 day trailing average

As expected the daily extent losses of the total Arctic are continuing to feed into the five-day average extent losses in the peripheral seas. Peripheral Seas extent losses were 48k, up from 33k the day before.  Every peripheral sea had an extent loss.

Also to be noted is that it is the fifth day of extent loss in the Central Arctic Ocean (17k in total).

Just as well that today was an extent loss both in NSIDC and JAXA data. An extent gain could have provoked a palace revolution.
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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #324 on: March 21, 2018, 04:01:26 PM »
It seems Bering has just almost made a new high, following Feb 7th which was at 411.5k, indeed a very strange year.

uniquorn

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #325 on: March 21, 2018, 06:58:31 PM »
It seems Bering has just almost made a new high, following Feb 7th which was at 411.5k, indeed a very strange year.
extent+lower volume=stranger+stranger ;)

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #326 on: March 21, 2018, 08:52:20 PM »
Average Arctic sea ice extent maximum for the 1980's was 15.6 million square kilometers. ALL the past 4 years (if 2018 has maxed out) have NOT reached 14 million square kilometers. All this while the solar TSI has been languid for half a century, & low for 11+ years(including a 3+ year period which set a 100 year record low).

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #327 on: March 22, 2018, 05:06:49 AM »
JAXA March 21st: 13,721,567 km2. A small increase of 8,514 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record. 2015 is above by 16.8K km2. 2017 is 180.7K km2 under 2018.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #328 on: March 22, 2018, 02:13:24 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent at 21st March = 14.268 million km2, up 58K in contrast with the extent loss of 99 k on the day before.

Extent at 20th March is therefore 51 k MORE than 2017 on that date , but the March 2018 simple average to date is still 108k less than the 2017 simple March average to the 21st March. It is therefore very probable that NSIDC will record March 2018 as the lowest extent in the satellite record, especially given that in 2017 extent loss from 20th to 31st March was a measly 70 k.

NSIDC Peripheral Seas Extent as at 21st March - 5 day trailing average

Despite the daily extent gain of the total Arctic of 58 k previous days losses are continuing to feed into the five-day average extent losses in the peripheral seas. Peripheral Seas extent losses were
 33k , compared with 48k  the day before.  Every peripheral sea had an extent loss, by far the greatest (-15k) in the Baffin.

Just as well that yesterday was an extent loss both in NSIDC and JAXA data as opposed to the extent gains that happened today . Palace revolution? Blood splattered all over the ASIF ?
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litesong

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #329 on: March 22, 2018, 06:45:47 PM »
.... the dmi 80 temps almost touch the long term average for the date ...
The existent Present High Arctic Berserker 8)(2), PHAB 8)(2) or FAB 8)(2) (continuous over-temperatures on the High Arctic) has died. FAB 8)(2) did exist for 215(+?) days, second only to FAB 8)(1) which existed for 231+ days from latter 2016 into 2017. Maximum days of continuous over-temperatures on the High Arctic in the latter 1950's & early 1960's lasted about 30 to 40 continuous days.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2018, 01:08:33 AM by litesong »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #330 on: March 23, 2018, 05:02:31 AM »
JAXA March 21st: 13,721,567 km2. A small increase of 8,514 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record. 2015 is above by 16.8K km2. 2017 is 180.7K km2 under 2018.

JAXA March 22nd: 13,711,450 km2. A drop of 10,117 km2.
Taking into account that yesterday had an increase of 8,514 km2, we can conclude that the change of March 20th to March 22nd is a little drop of 1.6K km2.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #331 on: March 23, 2018, 10:34:11 AM »
JAXA March 21st: 13,721,567 km2. A small increase of 8,514 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record. 2015 is above by 16.8K km2. 2017 is 180.7K km2 under 2018.

JAXA March 22nd: 13,711,450 km2. A drop of 10,117 km2.
Taking into account that yesterday had an increase of 8,514 km2, we can conclude that the change of March 20th to March 22nd is a little drop of 1.6K km2.
Just to add that JAXA extent could easily be third lowest, above 2017 and 2006 tomorrow.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #332 on: March 23, 2018, 01:11:48 PM »
Just to add that JAXA extent could easily be third lowest, above 2017 and 2006 tomorrow.

The forecast on anomaly temperature has change from negative to positive on the following week. And the hottest place is going to be Bering and Chukchi seas. The Arctic can lose extent here, so my bet is that the JAXA extent is going to lose ice the same way or even more than 2006 on this week. Just a bet without to much study, but I think that 2018 could be the lowest on record the following week.

On April, the drop on 2016 was huge, so I hope that 2018 will not follow 2016.

Thanks for the graphs, gerontocrat. They look great and are a good complement on this thread!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #333 on: March 23, 2018, 03:49:14 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent at 22nd March = 14.341 million km2, up 71k on top of the 60 K the day before, in contrast with the extent loss of 99 k on the day before.

Extent at 20th March is therefore 205k MORE than 2017 on that date (60k drop in 2017) , but the March 2018 simple average to date is still 106k less than the 2017 simple March average to the 22nd  March. It is therefore still very probable that NSIDC will record March 2018 as the lowest extent in the satellite record, especially given that in 2017 there was a small extent GAIN from 23rd to 31st March of 36 k.

NSIDC Peripheral Seas Extent as at 22 March - 5 day trailing average

Despite a second daily extent gain of the total Arctic of 71k on top of the previous 58 k previous days losses are continuing to feed into the five-day average extent losses in the peripheral seas. Peripheral Seas extent losses were 23k compared with 33k and 48k the 2 days before. By far the greatest loss this time (-19k) was in the Bering Sea, perhaps reflecting the current above zero temperatures reaching as far as into the Chukchi.

We are at the mercy of wind, waves, currents, and the northening of the sun (insolation). So these posts will mostly simply state what is, not what might be. (Especially as we now have a thread for speculation - Armageddon scenarios?)
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litesong

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #334 on: March 23, 2018, 04:51:50 PM »
The existent Present High Arctic Berserker 8)(2), PHAB 8)(2) or FAB 8)(2) (continuous over-temperatures on the High Arctic) has died. FAB 8)(2) did exist for 215(+?) days, second only to FAB 8)(1) which existed for 231+ days from latter 2016 into 2017. Maximum days of continuous over-temperatures on the High Arctic in the latter 1950's & early 1960's lasted about 30 to 40 continuous days.
Tho FAB 8)(2) has ended after existing for 215(+?) days, with present High Arctic temperatures dipping below the average temperature line, the dip appears to be brief. Already the average High Arctic temperatures have bottomed & are again above the average temperature line. It appears that southern heat from eastern siberia is heating its way into the High Arctic & even to the North Pole & may do so for at least the next 5 days.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2018, 04:56:59 PM by litesong »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #335 on: March 24, 2018, 05:25:22 AM »
March 23th:
JAXA: 13,684,699 km2. A drop of -26,751 and second lowest on record.

2018  minus:
2017:   + 220,666
2006:       -  6,926
2016:   -  215,280
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #336 on: March 24, 2018, 02:17:12 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent at 23 March =  14,283,000 km2, down 58k to continue the yo-yo - up 71k Mar 22, up 60 K Mar21, and extent loss of 99 k on Mar20.

Extent at 23 March is 207k MORE than 2017 on that date (another 60k drop in 2017) , but the March 2018 simple average to date is still 101k less than the 2017 simple March average to 23  March. It is therefore still very probable that NSIDC will record March 2018 as the lowest extent in the satellite record, especially given that in 2017 there was an extent GAIN from 23 to 31 March of 96 k.

If NSIDC post a +100k record low March average, this would be (I think) a small acceleration in annual winter sea loss, and in my opinion, more significant than the daily extent max coming in at second lowest.

NSIDC Peripheral Seas Extent as at 23 March - 5 day trailing average

The ups and down of daily extent gains and losses are continuing to feed into the five-day average extent losses in the peripheral seas. Total Peripheral Seas extent losses were 17k compared with 23k and 33k the 2 days before. By far the greatest loss this time (-23k) was in the Bering Sea, perhaps reflecting the current above zero temperatures reaching as far as into the Chukchi. have a look in the melting season thread to see a great image of the havoc currently underway there. The Baffin is also losing ice steadily - 260,000 km2 so far this month.

We are at the mercy of wind, waves, currents, and the northward movement of the sun (insolation). So these posts will mostly simply state what is, not what might be. BUT, of course, can I resist a peek at cci-renalyser? No.
GFS say that a weather system stretching from the eastern Mexican Border to Baffin Bay will develop starting around 27-28 march, ending in loads of wind, above zero temperatures, snow and RAIN going far into the Baffin by April 2. Rain melts snow. Rain melts ice.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2018, 02:23:48 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #337 on: March 24, 2018, 02:24:06 PM »
JAXA Actual Outlook:

At the beginning of 2018 melting season, the year 2012 (the worst year on September) is still well above other years. It is interesting that 2012 is above 2000’s and 2010’s average. On the other hand, the lowest years on March have been 2006 the last ones:2015-2018.

2006 2017 is the lowest today, but 2016 is going to take the lead, at the end of March.

I expect that 2018 can take the lead of lowest on record for a few days, and hope that 2018 will not follow 2016 afterwards.

Future drops of 2016:

Date               Ext. (K km2)   Days   Daily drop
23-mar-16         13,900       
31-mar-16         13,496           8        -50.5
15-abr-16          13,158         15       -22.6
30-abr-16          12,293         15       -57.6
« Last Edit: March 24, 2018, 03:03:14 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #338 on: March 24, 2018, 02:52:27 PM »
JAXA Actual Outlook:


2006 is the lowest today, but 2016 is going to take the lead, at the end of March.

I expect that 2018 can take the lead of lowest on record for a few days, and hope that 2018 will not follow 2016 afterwards.

Hullo Juan,

Having had my ego burnt, battered and bruised so many times by making definite statements without caveats that then turned out to be oh so wrong, I always try to remember to qualify a statement, for example,

but 2016 is going to take the lead becomes -

but previous years' data strongly suggest that 2016 is going to take the lead

especially as A-team and others in the melting thread suggest that the ice is in rotten shape this year and could easily come a cropper very soon.

ps: 2012 may have been the lowest extent by far, but the albedo warming potential of 2016 was much higher. To heat the Arctic Ocean best using insolation, a low maximum followed by early melt is the way to do it.


« Last Edit: March 24, 2018, 05:25:30 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #339 on: March 24, 2018, 03:45:01 PM »
Last year the ice was in rotten shape and there wasn't much of it. The cool stormy cloudy July saved the day. it may be that summers are getting stormier as open water increases in the Arctic. However, I wouldn't bet that this July will be as cool as last July.

I'm trying to understand how SSWs and ocean heat patterns might be used to predict summer weather. Wish me luck. So far, the models have shown limited predictive capabilities at seasonal time scales.

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #340 on: March 24, 2018, 06:58:48 PM »
Last year the ice was in rotten shape and there wasn't much of it. The cool stormy cloudy July saved the day. it may be that summers are getting stormier as open water increases in the Arctic. However, I wouldn't bet that this July will be as cool as last July.

I'm trying to understand how SSWs and ocean heat patterns might be used to predict summer weather. Wish me luck. So far, the models have shown limited predictive capabilities at seasonal time scales.

IMHO, the relatively cooler, cloudy summers we are seeing will become a persistent feature of the Arctic, due to reduced maximums, expansive open water and wobbly jet stream resulting in intrusions of moist air from the mid latitudes and locally generated cloud formation from evaporation. Difficult to say what the long term effects on summer melting seasons will be as the increased IR down welling caused by clouds and, likely, increased rainfall could counteract the reduced insolation.

At least during the melting season, the Arctic desert is disappearing.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2018, 07:05:52 PM by Shared Humanity »

litesong

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #341 on: March 25, 2018, 12:00:18 AM »
The existent Present High Arctic Berserker 8)(2), PHAB 8)(2) or FAB 8)(2) (continuous over-temperatures on the High Arctic) has died. FAB 8)(2) did exist for 215(+?) days, second only to FAB 8)(1) which existed for 231+ days from latter 2016 into 2017. Maximum days of continuous over-temperatures on the High Arctic in the latter 1950's & early 1960's lasted about 30 to 40 continuous days.
Tho FAB 8)(2) has ended after existing for 215(+?) days, with present High Arctic temperatures dipping below the average temperature line, the dip appears to be brief. Already the average High Arctic temperatures have bottomed & are again above the average temperature line. It appears that southern heat from eastern siberia is heating its way into the High Arctic & even to the North Pole & may do so for at least the next 5 days.
Tho the rising present High Arctic temperatures stopped ascending at only a few degrees Celsius above the average temperature line, the excess AGW siberian heat still pours into the High Arctic & High Arctic temperatures should strongly rise above the average.   

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #342 on: March 25, 2018, 12:01:30 AM »
Last year the ice was in rotten shape and there wasn't much of it. The cool stormy cloudy July saved the day. it may be that summers are getting stormier as open water increases in the Arctic. However, I wouldn't bet that this July will be as cool as last July.

I'm trying to understand how SSWs and ocean heat patterns might be used to predict summer weather. Wish me luck. So far, the models have shown limited predictive capabilities at seasonal time scales.

IMHO, the relatively cooler, cloudy summers we are seeing will become a persistent feature of the Arctic, due to reduced maximums, expansive open water and wobbly jet stream resulting in intrusions of moist air from the mid latitudes and locally generated cloud formation from evaporation. Difficult to say what the long term effects on summer melting seasons will be as the increased IR down welling caused by clouds and, likely, increased rainfall could counteract the reduced insolation.

At least during the melting season, the Arctic desert is disappearing.
Have we all been lulled into a 'high solar activity' calm of cloudy cool summers only for 'low solar ' to shake us out of the lull?

It's been pretty clear around Svalbard since early March due to the northern high pressures the SSW helped keep in place. how long will this North Atlantic propensity toward High pressure persist/ will we slip again into cloudy/cool conditions as the sun rises or will whatever drives the propensity for northern blocking patterns transfer ever higher into the basin?

I hope it isn't going to pan out but this is the first of the proper 'low solar' years so the next two will probably be 'stronger' in their low solar forcing?

Any move toward high solar over the ice in early melt season will feed my fears that this is what can drive a 'perfect melt storm' synoptic with the last 3 seemingly at the low solar end of the forcings ( as opposed to 'high solar' activity)

We are not as secure with our ice as we were back in 07' so even a partial 'perfect melt storm' season would lead us into problems?
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #343 on: March 25, 2018, 09:54:10 AM »
JAXA EXTENT as at 24 Mar 13,668,115 km2 a drop of 17k, the third drop in a row. Extent is third lowest, greater than 2017 ( 204k) and 2006 ( 42k). 

So far extent loss from maximum is exactly average (0.22 million km2, 2.2% of average extent loss), giving a minimum of 3.93 million km2 but as it is so very early in the season not really helpful.  NSIDC data will give a better idea of what is happening in the peripheral seas.
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #344 on: March 25, 2018, 09:59:18 AM »
Have we all been lulled into a 'high solar activity' calm of cloudy cool summers only for 'low solar ' to shake us out of the lull?

It's been pretty clear around Svalbard since early March due to the northern high pressures the SSW helped keep in place. how long will this North Atlantic propensity toward High pressure persist/ will we slip again into cloudy/cool conditions as the sun rises or will whatever drives the propensity for northern blocking patterns transfer ever higher into the basin?

I hope it isn't going to pan out but this is the first of the proper 'low solar' years so the next two will probably be 'stronger' in their low solar forcing?

Any move toward high solar over the ice in early melt season will feed my fears that this is what can drive a 'perfect melt storm' synoptic with the last 3 seemingly at the low solar end of the forcings ( as opposed to 'high solar' activity)

We are not as secure with our ice as we were back in 07' so even a partial 'perfect melt storm' season would lead us into problems?

There are now two threads to discuss these things (the 'real-time' melting season thread, and the 'mid- to long-term' melting season thread). Let's keep this one focused on the data.
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #345 on: March 25, 2018, 10:01:05 AM »

Have we all been lulled into a 'high solar activity' calm of cloudy cool summers only for 'low solar ' to shake us out of the lull?

Can you point me towards research that confirms that solar cycles are responsible for changes between "cloudy" and "sunny" weather in the Arctic?

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #346 on: March 25, 2018, 11:00:20 AM »
Quote
Can you point me towards research that confirms that solar cycles are responsible for changes between "cloudy" and "sunny" weather in the Arctic?

Do it somewhere else, please.
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #347 on: March 25, 2018, 11:17:47 AM »
Quote
Can you point me towards research that confirms that solar cycles are responsible for changes between "cloudy" and "sunny" weather in the Arctic?

Do it somewhere else, please.

over on the 'speculation thread' ta!
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #348 on: March 25, 2018, 02:36:30 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent at 24 March =  14,200,000 km2, down 83k

Extent at 24 March is 127k MORE than 2017 on that date (but down from 207k).  but the March 2018 simple average to date is still 99 k less than the 2017 simple March average to 24 March. It is therefore still very probable that NSIDC will record March 2018 as the lowest extent in the satellite record, especially given that in 2017 there was an extent GAIN from 24 to 31 March of 99 k.

If NSIDC post a +100k record low March average, this would be (I think) a small acceleration in annual winter sea loss, and in my opinion, more significant than the daily extent max coming in at second lowest.

ps: I missed that on 23 March, 2018 was 2nd lowest, 63k above 2006. On 24 March the difference is just 6k

NSIDC Peripheral Seas Extent as at 24 March - 5 day trailing average

The ups and down of daily extent gains and losses are continuing to feed into the five-day average extent losses in the peripheral seas. Total Peripheral Seas extent losses were 21k . By far the greatest loss again  (-28k) was in the Bering Sea, perhaps reflecting the current above zero temperatures reaching as far as into the Chukchi. have a look in the melting season thread to see a great image of the havoc currently underway there. The Baffin is also losing ice steadily - 263,000 km2 so far this month.

To see what seas might get hit or recover next the 2018 melting season thread is just over the road. My bet is on Baffin getting clobbered at the end of the month and into the first few days of April.
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #349 on: March 25, 2018, 06:42:25 PM »
Pressure gradients & winds will be almost ideal for blowing ice from the Pacific side of the Arctic to the Atlantic side and out the Fram strait. Remember that the Coriolis effect will tend to deflect ice movement to the right towards Greenland as it drifts southwards. Obviously, the ice already piled up against the coast of Greenland will limit the amount of deflection. We should see a burst of ice export for the next 10 days if the models verify.

There's also going to be much warmer than normal weather over the Chukchi sea. It looks like we will see a very early melt out in the Chukchi, which melted out very early last year. The early loss of ice will likely lead to a build up of ocean heat that will affect the whole melting season like it did last year.