NSIDC Daily Extent at 23 March = 14,283,000 km2, down 58k to continue the yo-yo - up 71k Mar 22, up 60 K Mar21, and extent loss of 99 k on Mar20.
Extent at 23 March is 207k MORE than 2017 on that date (another 60k drop in 2017) , but the March 2018 simple average to date is still 101k less than the 2017 simple March average to 23 March. It is therefore still very probable that NSIDC will record March 2018 as the lowest extent in the satellite record, especially given that in 2017 there was an extent GAIN from 23 to 31 March of 96 k.
If NSIDC post a +100k record low March average, this would be (I think) a small acceleration in annual winter sea loss, and in my opinion, more significant than the daily extent max coming in at second lowest.
NSIDC Peripheral Seas Extent as at 23 March - 5 day trailing average
The ups and down of daily extent gains and losses are continuing to feed into the five-day average extent losses in the peripheral seas. Total Peripheral Seas extent losses were 17k compared with 23k and 33k the 2 days before. By far the greatest loss this time (-23k) was in the Bering Sea, perhaps reflecting the current above zero temperatures reaching as far as into the Chukchi. have a look in the melting season thread to see a great image of the havoc currently underway there. The Baffin is also losing ice steadily - 260,000 km2 so far this month.
We are at the mercy of wind, waves, currents, and the northward movement of the sun (insolation). So these posts will mostly simply state what is, not what might be. BUT, of course, can I resist a peek at cci-renalyser? No.
GFS say that a weather system stretching from the eastern Mexican Border to Baffin Bay will develop starting around 27-28 march, ending in loads of wind, above zero temperatures, snow and RAIN going far into the Baffin by April 2. Rain melts snow. Rain melts ice.