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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #550 on: May 07, 2018, 05:52:05 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

Date           2006              2016            2018         Drop 2018
May 1    12,558,242    12,195,413    12,556,176    
May 2    12,444,466    12,164,312    12,521,612      -34,564
May 3    12,405,456    12,144,447    12,451,489      -70,123
May 4    12,320,956    12,081,393    12,373,382      -78,107
May 5    12,249,753    12,039,085    12,257,814    -115,568
May 6    12,188,126    11,986,358    12,186,110      -71,704

May 6th, 2018: 12,186,110 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 is  199,752 km2 above 2016 and 2,016 km2 under 2006.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Nikita

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #551 on: May 07, 2018, 01:58:35 PM »
...

Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #552 on: May 07, 2018, 02:04:17 PM »
Could you please update the graph at the end of June?  ;)
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HapHazard

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #553 on: May 07, 2018, 08:53:27 PM »
When I did the same sort of plot in early March, the line went up off the top of the chart. IDK what happened.

lol  ;)
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #554 on: May 08, 2018, 05:58:45 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 7th, 2018: 12,115,492 km2, a drop of 70,618 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 is 202,913 km2 above 2016 and 52,876 km2 under 2006.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #555 on: May 08, 2018, 09:00:04 PM »
JAXA short term analysis - May 8th, 2018.

2016 is the first lowest on record and the following two days drops are going to be 130K and 99K km2. Because today the difference between 2018 and 2016 is 203K km2, it is completely remote that 2018 will be the first on record, at least on the following two weeks.

On the other hand, 2006 is the second lowest on record and is going to stall on the following days. 2015 is going to become the second lowest on record, but like 2006, is not going to have important drops.

So, it is almost sure that 2018 will be the second lowest on record, at least on the following two weeks.

The interesting question is where 2018 will be on June 10th, when the years 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2017 are even, on the second lowest on record position, while 2016 starts to lose the first lowest on record position.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2018, 09:23:03 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #556 on: May 09, 2018, 05:48:20 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 8th, 2018: 12,077,941 km2, a drop of 37,551 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 295,775 km2 more than 2016 and 73,643 km2 less than 2006.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

DavidR

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #557 on: May 09, 2018, 08:11:17 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 8th, 2018: 12,077,941 km2, a drop of 37,551 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 295,775 km2 more than 2016 and 73,643 km2 less than 2006.

And with that 2004 loses its' last day in the top 3 for any day of the year. 2005 will stay in the list until Feb 6th when its sole day in the top 3 occurs.

2012 doesn't get a lowest 3 day until June 11th and if current trends continue 2018 will have more days in the lowest 3 by June 10th than 2012 has in the entire year. 
« Last Edit: May 09, 2018, 09:34:36 AM by DavidR »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #558 on: May 09, 2018, 11:53:22 AM »
To be in a place for a few days with no laptop and no cell-phone signal.
Wonderful. Ho hum.

JAXA extent - 12,077,941 km2(May 8, 2018)

On average (of last 10 years), 18% (1.8 million km2) of extent loss is done, and 2018 extent loss is very close to that average, which if continued would lead to a minimum of just under 4 million km2. However, excluding 2012 (which I still regard as an outlier) the result would be more like 4.1 to 4.2 million km2 - low but not lowest.

But the next three months are the maximum months for insolation - so what does the brief Arctic summer have in store?.
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Alexander555

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #559 on: May 09, 2018, 12:22:21 PM »
Still pretty big drops, and we are missing a big piece of easy ice in the Bering Sea. Does somebody knows how much ice the Bering Sea normaly loses at this time of the year ?

Phil.

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #560 on: May 09, 2018, 03:21:53 PM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 8th, 2018: 12,077,941 km2, a drop of 37,551 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 295,775 km2 more than 2016 and 73,643 km2 less than 2006.

And with that 2004 loses its' last day in the top 3 for any day of the year. 2005 will stay in the list until Feb 6th when its sole day in the top 3 occurs.

2012 doesn't get a lowest 3 day until June 11th and if current trends continue 2018 will have more days in the lowest 3 by June 10th than 2012 has in the entire year.
I'm not clear exactly what you're plotting here, a figure legend would help.  Thanks.

Aluminium

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #561 on: May 09, 2018, 03:30:41 PM »
Does somebody knows how much ice the Bering Sea normaly loses at this time of the year ?
10-15 thousand km2/day.

DavidR

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #562 on: May 09, 2018, 03:33:03 PM »
I'm not clear exactly what you're plotting here, a figure legend would help.  Thanks.
Hope this helps, Its a bar chart of the number of days rated in the lowest three in the IJIS Arctic Extent record.
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Phil.

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #563 on: May 09, 2018, 03:38:30 PM »
Thanks that's perfect.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #564 on: May 09, 2018, 07:17:46 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 May (5 day trailing average)

The first table attached shows how area loss has moderated to 60k per day over the last 3 days. When Hudson Bay, the Okhotsk Sea and the St. Lawrence are excluded, it is just under 40k per day.

Pacific Side
The Okhotsk loss of area has slowed to about 12k. This reflects that area is now less than 15% of average maximum, and demonstrates that the less ice there is, the less there is to lose.
The Bering Sea area loss rate area has slowed to a crawl and is meaningless. (Last posting).

Chukchi Sea has gained a small amount of area.
The Beaufort Sea small area gains have stopped.

Atlantic Side

In contrast :
- The Greenland area loss in the last three days has slowed to effectively zero.
- The Barents area loss has grown to 34k on 8 May
- The Laptev is losing a bit and the Kara Sea gains a bit of of area.
- The Central Arctic has lost 50k in the last three days.

The great warming event has stopped for the moment. GFS say it will get going again from next weekend?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #565 on: May 10, 2018, 06:26:01 AM »
ADS-NIPR JAXA has delay the data for 45+ minutes  :(
So I invite you to look on their site, to see if they have updated the information:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[In Mexico is 11:28 pm]  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #566 on: May 10, 2018, 10:08:46 AM »
Still nothing, probably will only be tomorrow (though today isn't a holiday in Japan).

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #567 on: May 11, 2018, 05:55:09 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 9th, 2018: 12,021,992 km2, a drop of 55,949 km2.
May 10th, 2018: 11,933,172 km2, a drop of 88,820 km2.

2018 is the second lowest on record.
On May 10th:
2018 has 299,829 km2 more than 2016 and 151,697 km2 less than 2006.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #568 on: May 11, 2018, 10:37:26 AM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 10 MAY 2018 11,933,172 km2

Just to add to Juan's post :
- daily extent loss well above average,
- a reminder of how exceptional 2016 extent loss was at this period in the melting season, and
- how 2012 extent on 10 May was 740,000 km2 less than 2017 and yet still ended up with a record low by 700,000 km2.

The last graph is just there to illustrate just how unpredictable the outcome for 2018 really is.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #569 on: May 11, 2018, 02:34:48 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 May (5 day trailing average)

The first table attached shows how area loss has moderated to under 50k per day over the last 2 days. When Hudson Bay, the Okhotsk Sea and the St. Lawrence are excluded, it is just over 30k per day.

Pacific Side
The Okhotsk loss of area has slowed to 7k. This reflects that area at 90k is now about 10% of average maximum, and demonstrates that the less ice there is, the less there is to lose.
The Bering Sea area is just 9k, and yet could take a long time to get to zero.

Chukchi Sea has gained a small amount of area.
The Beaufort Sea small area gains have stopped.

Atlantic Side

In contrast :
- The Greenland area loss in the last three days has slowed to effectively zero.
- The Barents area loss is still in the 20+k per day range.
- The Laptev and the Kara Sea gains a bit of of area.
- The Central Arctic extent loss is down to 4k.

The great warming event has stopped for the moment. GFS say it will get going again after next week, but they always do, and just sometimes it arrives.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #570 on: May 11, 2018, 04:48:36 PM »
There is every so often discussion on relevance of area vs extent. I think it is of use to think about lagging indicators, indicators on current status, and leading indicators. (Shocking to talk like an economist).

I illustrate this with a graph on the Okhotsk Sea and the melting thereof.

Extent loss always lags behind area loss, the lag reducing as the amount of ice left approaches zero. So extent is my lagging indicator, while area gives me the current status.

My leading indicator is weather forecasts. The 5 day average temperature forecast from GFS tells me the Okhotsk Sea Ice is toast. Wouldn't it be great to be able to look beyond that with a degree of confidence.

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magnamentis

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #571 on: May 11, 2018, 06:14:56 PM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 9th, 2018: 12,021,992 km2, a drop of 55,949 km2.
May 10th, 2018: 11,933,172 km2, a drop of 88,820 km2.

2018 is the second lowest on record.
On May 10th:
2018 has 299,829 km2 more than 2016 and 151,697 km2 less than 2006.

is this northern hemisphere only thread, not according to the title and globally we're lowest.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #572 on: May 11, 2018, 06:23:18 PM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 9th, 2018: 12,021,992 km2, a drop of 55,949 km2.
May 10th, 2018: 11,933,172 km2, a drop of 88,820 km2.

2018 is the second lowest on record.
On May 10th:
2018 has 299,829 km2 more than 2016 and 151,697 km2 less than 2006.

is this northern hemisphere only thread, not according to the title and globally we're lowest.
Yes - 'tis the Arctic. Within the Arctic Sea Ice Section you will find the topic "Global sea ice area and extent data" that combines N & S.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #573 on: May 12, 2018, 02:14:17 AM »
It is interesting how NSIDC puts 2018 almost as bad as 2016, far away from any other year.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #574 on: May 12, 2018, 05:50:53 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 11th, 2018: 11,836,232 km2, an almost century drop of 96,940 km2.

2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 263,128 km2 more than 2016 and 220,487 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #575 on: May 12, 2018, 10:40:52 AM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 11 MAY 2018 11,933,172 km2

Just to add to Juan's post :
- 2018 extent is now 430,415 km2 less than 2017
- how 2012 extent was 780,000 km2 less than 2018 and yet still ended up with a record low by 700,000 km2.

I have added a line on the first table to show the effect of removing 2012 from the 10 year average extent loss. The outcome for the minimum then comes in at 4.05 million km2 as opposed to 3.88 million km2.

I have also attached an Albedo Warming Potential graph from Tealight aka Nico Sun. It shows the recent strong 2018 extent losses are starting to have an upward impact.
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charles_oil

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #576 on: May 12, 2018, 05:51:16 PM »

Any chance of including 2007 in the graph as that was a low one too - certainly shows 2012 standing out with a very rapid increase over the next couple of months.


gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #577 on: May 12, 2018, 06:56:16 PM »

Any chance of including 2007 in the graph as that was a low one too - certainly shows 2012 standing out with a very rapid increase over the next couple of months.
Nope. I showed 2012 because it was unique in moving from above average extent in April to a record low in September. No other year has shown such a rapid change. To me it demonstrates both the unpredictability of a melting season at the beginning, and also the limit of that unpredictability. That limit tells me to forget a Blue Ocean Event this year.
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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #578 on: May 12, 2018, 08:13:00 PM »

Any chance of including 2007 in the graph as that was a low one too - certainly shows 2012 standing out with a very rapid increase over the next couple of months.
I think what you see standing out is 2016, which started the melting season with extreme losses and had the potential to become lowest on record, but was saved during June and July. Even eith that, it finished not far behind 2012 in area, and I believe its lead in albedo-warming potential played a significant part in that.

oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #579 on: May 12, 2018, 08:35:13 PM »
Neven - I have a small request. This thread is the first one I go to when on the forum. It would be nice if it could be bolded, like the late IJIS thread used to be.

Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #580 on: May 12, 2018, 08:38:39 PM »
I think what you see standing out is 2016, which started the melting season with extreme losses and had the potential to become lowest on record, but was saved during June and July. Even eith that, it finished not far behind 2012 in area, and I believe its lead in albedo-warming potential played a significant part in that.

Well said, oren. If this year gets a similar start under its belt, it will take some very cold and cloudy weather during June and July to keep it out of the top 3. Mind you, 2016 ended with a bang (two GAC-like cyclones and then a huge dipole).
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Neven

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #581 on: May 12, 2018, 08:39:05 PM »
Neven - I have a small request. This thread is the first one I go to when on the forum. It would be nice if it could be bolded, like the late IJIS thread used to be.

Done!
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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #582 on: May 12, 2018, 10:44:45 PM »
A big thank you Neven.

charles_oil

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #583 on: May 13, 2018, 12:41:58 AM »

I was looking at the red line for 2012 which seemed to have a very rapid increase from ca 8 June - and wondered if 2007 had a similar style as its the other unusually low year (at the time).


Juan C. García

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #584 on: May 13, 2018, 05:48:57 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 12th, 2018: 11,746,777 km2, a drop of 89,455 km2.

2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 258,327 km2 more than 2016 and 236,615 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #585 on: May 13, 2018, 11:06:59 AM »
JAXA DATA 11,746,777 km2(May 12, 2018)

Just to add to Juan's post :
- 2018 extent is now 442,157 km2 less than 2017
- how 2012 extent was 798,275 km2 more than 2018 on this date and yet still ended up with a record low by 700,000 km2.

I have added a line on the first table to show the effect of removing 2012 from the 10 year average extent loss. The outcome for the minimum then comes in at 4.02 million km2 as opposed to 3.85 million km2.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 12:41:07 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #586 on: May 13, 2018, 12:06:24 PM »
Just fix the recurring typo, 2012 was more on this date, not less...
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 12:14:37 PM by oren »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #587 on: May 13, 2018, 12:48:56 PM »
Just fix the recurring typo, 2012 was more on this date, not less...

Thanks - post less, edit more?
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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #588 on: May 13, 2018, 01:15:55 PM »
You keep doing your fabulous stuff, I'm just nitpicking.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #589 on: May 13, 2018, 02:35:29 PM »
Ok, Oren

NSIDC Total Area as at 12 May (5 day trailing average)

The first table attached shows how area loss is around 50k per day over the last 4 days. When Hudson Bay, the Okhotsk Sea and the St. Lawrence are excluded, it is now just over 45k per day.

Pacific Side
The Okhotsk loss of area has slowed to 5k and will soon be more or less irrelevant. This reflects that area at 80k is less than 10% of average maximum, and demonstrates that the less ice there is, the less there is to lose.
The Bering Sea area is stuck at 9k, and is irrelevant.

However, in the last two days:-
Chukchi Sea has lost 20k km2 in area,
The Beaufort Sea has lost 18k km2 in area.
The melting season has arrived in the Pacific side of the Arctic Basin?

Atlantic Side

- Warmth moving up Baffin Bay has caused an area loss of about 10k over the last 4 days.
- The Greenland area loss in the last three days has slowed to effectively zero.
- The Barents area loss has slowed, but still a 39k loss in the last two days.
- The Laptev Sea gains a bit of of area.
- The Kara Sea loses a tiny bit of area,
- Other Central Seas extent loss is minimal.


The great warming event has stopped for the moment. GFS say it will get going again after next week, but they always do, and just sometimes it arrives.
[/quote]
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FishOutofWater

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #590 on: May 13, 2018, 03:02:35 PM »
Thanks for the detailed graphics, G-crat. The warmth will continue over the Arctic ocean according to the ECMWF. The pattern of heat advecting in from the Atlantic and Pacific basins that we have seen on and off for 2 years is still on. It looks to me like the intensification of ocean ridges and Arctic blocking highs is going to be a new normal.




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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #591 on: May 14, 2018, 05:45:45 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 13th, 2018: 11,721,268 km2, a drop of 25,509 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 350,144 km2 more than 2016 and 209,789 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #592 on: May 14, 2018, 06:19:52 PM »
Melting in the Arctic Basin is now starting in earnest.

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #593 on: May 14, 2018, 06:26:40 PM »
While area is lower than every year except for 2016, it seems the timing of the onset of serious melting is similar to most years on the chart.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #594 on: May 14, 2018, 08:03:49 PM »
While area is lower than every year except for 2016, it seems the timing of the onset of serious melting is similar to most years on the chart.
It depends on which bit of the Arctic you look at, so here goes:-

JAXA AREA as at 13th May 2018

For a change, graphs, lots of graphs so probably several posts.

I have taken each sea and ordered them into - Pacific, Atlantic, Central, and the others (sort of bit players).
For each category I have put them into the order in which the melt usually happens.

PACIFIC

The first image has the Bering and Chukchi.

It was as good as over for the Bering by the middle of April (less than 10% of the maximum in the 1980's). Probably 7+ months with ice less than that. If 2018 is now the norm, maximum sea ice will be well under 50% of the maximum of the 1980s.

The Chukchi (after a blip down in late Feb) started losing area consistently about one to two weeks earlier than average and is now well below the 2010's average. How far down will it go?

The next image is the Beaufort and East-Siberian.( We who live in the west say the Beaufort in in the far west of the Arctic, Russians say the East-Siberian is in the Far East.Different points of view).

Both seas have been making a mockery of the expected effect of invasion of warm water from the Pacific, though the Beaufort has just started to lose area.

The next post will look at the Atlantic side. I'm off for a coffee.

« Last Edit: May 14, 2018, 08:10:33 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #595 on: May 14, 2018, 08:29:38 PM »
ATLANTIC side graphs

The first image is just the Baffin, significant as when it melts out it unplugs the numerous passages into the Arctic Basin proper.

It has been very cold in that N.E. quarter of Canada. Melt is also late in Greenland. Now warmth is starting to show in the Baffin.

Next is the Greenland and Barentz Seas

The Greenland Sea area is still 50,000 km2 greater than on March 1 - the Great Late February temperature spike. I guess there is warming heading north meeting additional ice down the Fram Strait.
The Barents Sea reached a maximum above the 1990's average in early April, but is now reducing strongly.

Next are the Kara and Laptev Seas, both at or above 1980's average. AGW, what AGW?

Too much like hard work. Another coffee required.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #596 on: May 14, 2018, 08:53:21 PM »
THE CENTRAL ARCTIC and the CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO

The Archipelago is till solid, above 1980's average.

The Central Arctic is very interesting. The February temperature spike really clobbered it, but recovery was complete. But now there is a significant early area loss. Will the much higher area loss so far in the 2010's be repeated.

OTHER SEAS

The Hudson is a consolation prize for bbr2314
Melt is late.
Question:- 
Is late ice melt and above average snow + late snow melt a result of the persistent cold in the NE quarter of Canada, or
Is  persistent cold in the NE quarter of Canada and late ice melt a result of above average snow + late snow melt ?

The Okhotsk melted late and area is now well below the 2010's average.

The St Lawrence melted a week or two early and area is now just bouncing around.

I think I will give the graphs another outing just after May21 - one month before solstice - if people think they are useful.
 
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oren

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #597 on: May 14, 2018, 09:18:38 PM »
These graphs are highly useful and thanks for posting them, a revisit will be most welcome.
One point about the CAB, in reality it is bunch of areas that have different ice melt characteristics. The area north of Svalbard is undergoing Atlantification, and by rights should now be treated separately from the CAB proper. The other area hit in February was the Lincoln Sea/North-of-Greenland area, which also has its own peculiar characteristics. In general, it would be best if NSIDC decided to split the CAB into several sub-geographies, with reprocessing of past regional data, as rapid changes in a small sub-area are masked by bundling into the CAB super-area. An easy split could be taking away the external parts of the CAB according to the area they are facing - CAB North-of-Laptev sector, CAB North-of-Kara sector, CAB North-of-ESS sector, CAB North-of-CAA sector and so on, leaving the inner circle around the pole as the remaining Central CAB. Just thinking out loud here, more like wishful thinking really.

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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #598 on: May 14, 2018, 09:49:54 PM »
That's a pretty good idea, oren.
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Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #599 on: May 15, 2018, 05:54:58 AM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 14th, 2018: 11,677,808 km2, a drop of 43,460 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 384,082 km2 more than 2016 and 213,548 km2 less than 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.