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sidd

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #100 on: June 03, 2018, 01:38:22 AM »
" quite a bit of rain coming to S. Greenland from 2000M and below."

that oughta goose the melt rate.

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #101 on: June 03, 2018, 08:36:36 AM »
Data as at 1 June 2018 from-
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

The Greenland melting season is waking up again.

3+% area melt every day for over a week now. A jump to 4% on 30th May, to 5% 31 May, to 6% on 1st June, and to the giddy heights of 9% on 2nd June. That's above average (just).

Precipitation mostly somewhat above average for the last few days and a significant spike on 1-2 June.

It still looks like a significant part of S. Greenland will stay above freezing, perhaps reaching a maximum on Wednesday or Thursday and it also looks as if precipitation in the south will also be above average.
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Darvince

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #102 on: June 03, 2018, 09:32:38 AM »
Since we're at three days at or above 5% melting, the melt season according to the DMI definition has now begun.

Any rain it seems is forecasted for mainly the 4th, with mainly snow for today again. SMB is likely going to remain positive the entire time, as there is still plenty of snow at higher elevations.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2018, 09:42:44 AM by Darvince »

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #103 on: June 04, 2018, 02:50:56 PM »
Data as at 3 June 2018 from-
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

The Greenland melting season is showing some legs - 12% melt on 3rd June. That's above average.

Precipitation mostly somewhat above average for the last few days and a significant spike on 1-2 June.

It still looks like a significant part of S. Greenland will stay above freezing, perhaps reaching a maximum on Wednesday or Thursday and it also looks as if precipitation in the south will also be above average for a bit longer.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #104 on: June 05, 2018, 10:48:23 AM »
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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #105 on: June 05, 2018, 01:30:50 PM »
WOW!  Is that real?

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #106 on: June 05, 2018, 01:54:47 PM »
My concerns for the Arctic melt season were for us to see a repeat of the record low years we saw last low solar.

2012 was at the tail end of this and we know what occurred in Greenland over that season!

I take it the light grey extremes mainly show us 2012 peaks and this spike is well above those for the day?
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FredBear

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #107 on: June 05, 2018, 02:25:07 PM »
Think the extreme highs and lows are left off the Greenland melts - there's no daily 98% shown for 2012 in the light gray traces.

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #108 on: June 05, 2018, 03:19:26 PM »
Think the extreme highs and lows are left off the Greenland melts - there's no daily 98% shown for 2012 in the light gray traces.

Correct - quote from the DMI website:-

These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 30 years have been left out.
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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #109 on: June 06, 2018, 07:16:09 AM »
700mb temps over the southern half to two-thirds of the sheet are going to rise to near 0C, meaning rain should get to about 2500m and surface melt temps to about 3000m in elevation with this event. We should see a pretty healthy outbreak of melt ponding after a few days of this.

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #110 on: June 06, 2018, 09:56:32 AM »
Data as at 5 June 2018 from-
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

Flaming June ? For a day or two more at least.
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RikW

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #111 on: June 06, 2018, 12:03:56 PM »
Time for SMB to meet a cliff?

Thomas Barlow

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #112 on: June 06, 2018, 06:52:07 PM »
"Extremely high albedo at the start of the melt season" - Jason Box.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10216021475159480&set=gm.2160361423977510&type=3&theater&ifg=1

Thomas Barlow

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #113 on: June 06, 2018, 06:56:05 PM »
The NAO has been so persistent the last several weeks that now at the start of the melt season, key areas of the Greenland ice sheet lower melt zone are protected from big melt by a cold layer of bright snow. - Jason Box
@PolarPortal - https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10215982014652992&set=gm.2157801880900131&type=3&theater&ifg=1


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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #114 on: June 06, 2018, 09:43:34 PM »
Is 21C a high surface temperature for western Greenland at this time of year?
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bbr2314

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #115 on: June 07, 2018, 12:35:16 AM »
The NAO has been so persistent the last several weeks that now at the start of the melt season, key areas of the Greenland ice sheet lower melt zone are protected from big melt by a cold layer of bright snow. - Jason Box
@PolarPortal - https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10215982014652992&set=gm.2157801880900131&type=3&theater&ifg=1
The last year similar hemispherically was 2009. I wonder if ENSO is some kind of partial reaction to year-over-year shifts in albedo? The resemblance with that year is uncanny across many parts of the high Arctic, and 2002 was also quite similar.

E.G.

Greenland's albedo changes year over year but is largely contained within relatively small bounds. Year over year trends can exacerbate its darkening to the point where the albedo flux is insufficient to distribute planetary heat loads and heat begins accumulating in the oceans. This see-saws until it hits a summertime->fall->winter period where the ocean's rising heat content is sufficient to completely reset the slate, depositing vast amounts of moisture in the form of snowfall and thereafter, resolving via subsequent residual increase in albedo in Greenland. This would further explain why NINO shifts to NINA and not vice versa.

I am not saying it is certain, but I am becoming very suspicious that ENSO is actually a reaction to the snowfall/sea ice balance up north. The similarities between this year, 2002, and 2009 are uncanny.

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #116 on: June 07, 2018, 12:39:41 AM »
Is 21C a high surface temperature for western Greenland at this time of year?

Nuuk temp in June  average around 6 celsius methinks.
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FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #117 on: June 07, 2018, 03:29:24 PM »
How much longer is the melt expected to last, at least for this particular event?

ArcticMelt1

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #118 on: June 07, 2018, 11:30:45 PM »
Update

ArcticMelt1

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #119 on: June 07, 2018, 11:37:23 PM »
For comparison in last year, such melting was only in July:


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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #120 on: June 08, 2018, 07:57:39 AM »
A nice tool to compare different Greenland meltseasons can be found here at the NSIDC.
Below a comparison of 2010, 2012, 2016 (unfortunately in orange too as 2012) and 2018 so far.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2018, 08:10:58 AM by S.Pansa »

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #121 on: June 08, 2018, 08:22:28 AM »
So Greenland with 1.71million sqkm of ice area shot up to an almost identical 23.5% melt in 2012 as it has this year at very simular dates. Interesting. Wonder if that's a signal of what sort of melt season the sea ice will experience.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #122 on: June 08, 2018, 11:08:15 AM »
How much longer is the melt expected to last, at least for this particular event?

While GFS (via cci-reanalyzer.org) has been rubbish at predicting the warm bits of the Arctic, it has been good about the cold bits (e.g. NE Canada and Greenland). So the current spike in melt area was mirrored by the GFS predictions.

Now GFS is saying that this spike may have passed though peripheral areas of Greenland will be above zero for the next few days. Melt yes, how much ???

Thomas Barlow poined out that :-
Quote
The NAO has been so persistent the last several weeks that now at the start of the melt season, key areas of the Greenland ice sheet lower melt zone are protected from big melt by a cold layer of bright snow. - Jason Box

Compare the melt spike with the accumulatedsmb graph. It is still going strongly upwards, i.e. precipitation minus melt is still increasing the snow mass balance.
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bbr2314

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #123 on: June 08, 2018, 09:13:48 PM »
This is proof those hockey stick graphs and unbridled sea level rise predictions are a crock of sh*t. It is going to be immensely WORSE than that in terms of climate change's weather implications but at this point the raw increase projections are looking like an extremely blatant lie that actually masks the reality of what we are imminently going to endure.

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #124 on: June 09, 2018, 04:19:48 AM »
That DMI tool showed snow accumulation down to the 1200M level or so.

While actual observed soundings along the coast very close to there with winds stacked out of the ESS/SE going up well above 3000M showed multiple days with temps above 0C upwards of 3000M.

How much earth could it have snowed at that low of heights with saturated warm air pumping in.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #125 on: June 09, 2018, 09:17:46 AM »
That DMI tool showed snow accumulation down to the 1200M level or so.

While actual observed soundings along the coast very close to there with winds stacked out of the ESS/SE going up well above 3000M showed multiple days with temps above 0C upwards of 3000M.

How much earth could it have snowed at that low of heights with saturated warm air pumping in.

Hullo Frivolousz21,

Don't ask me - all I do is look at what DMI says until something better comes along, and DMI says accumulated surface mass balance is still increasing despite 37% melt. However, it looks like maybe precipitation will be lower in the next five days (see last image - I am leery of GFS at more than 5 days).

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Tealight

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #126 on: June 09, 2018, 11:07:17 AM »
That DMI tool showed snow accumulation down to the 1200M level or so.

While actual observed soundings along the coast very close to there with winds stacked out of the ESS/SE going up well above 3000M showed multiple days with temps above 0C upwards of 3000M.

How much earth could it have snowed at that low of heights with saturated warm air pumping in.

The DMI only shows surface mass accumulation which includes rain as well. When 5mm of rain falls onto the ice sheet it doesn't magically vanish and take the melted ice with it. The water accumulates in streams, lakes, and might stay there a couple of days. The mass only reduces when this water leaves the ice sheet through cracks or surface runoff.

They published a detailed paper of the model. Link is on the Greenland DMI site (Liquid Water Flow and Retention on the Greenland Ice Sheet in the Regional Climate Model HIRHAM5: Local and Large-Scale Impacts)

gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #127 on: June 09, 2018, 11:37:22 AM »

The DMI only shows surface mass accumulation which includes rain as well. When 5mm of rain falls onto the ice sheet it doesn't magically vanish and take the melted ice with it. The water accumulates in streams, lakes, and might stay there a couple of days. The mass only reduces when this water leaves the ice sheet through cracks or surface runoff.

They published a detailed paper of the model. Link is on the Greenland DMI site (Liquid Water Flow and Retention on the Greenland Ice Sheet in the Regional Climate Model HIRHAM5: Local and Large-Scale Impacts)

So, it could, counter-intuitively, well be that loads of rain could cause loss in SMB to accelerate as not only will that rain run off (eventually) but also the snow / ice it melts and also will reduce albedo thus encouraging melting when the clouds roll away ?
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DrTskoul

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #128 on: June 09, 2018, 02:06:57 PM »
With a lot of liquid water (rain or melt), the drainage between the ice crystals within the top of the ice sheet ( firn ) might be flooded or water clogged so that it cannot drain but form accumulation on top or within the ice. It will drain initially slowly but can also accelerate if it carves a path to big moulins ...
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oren

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #129 on: June 09, 2018, 09:10:31 PM »
This is what the melting event in Greenland looks like on the ground, as measured by the various DMI weather stations around the coasts. 2m temps, Co.

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #130 on: June 10, 2018, 12:10:45 AM »
So, it could, counter-intuitively, well be that loads of rain could cause loss in SMB to accelerate as not only will that rain run off (eventually) but also the snow / ice it melts and also will reduce albedo thus encouraging melting when the clouds roll away ?

That's one possibility. The other is that the rain freezes and makes the ice thicker.

As you can see on worldview your version happened in West Greenland which is fairly typical in June and the higher elevation east coast is too cold to sustain liquid surface water for a long time.

https://go.nasa.gov/2JtgVGN



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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #131 on: June 10, 2018, 09:41:17 AM »
Thanks Tealight for the info.

Meanwhile,
Data at 9th June from
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/


Melt 37% for three days is quite impressive.
Greenland precipitation low and mostly cloud free and will be for at least the next three days.

Will SMB drop as a result?
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mostly_lurking

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #132 on: June 11, 2018, 11:53:38 AM »
Melt 37% for three days is quite impressive.
Greenland precipitation low and mostly cloud free and will be for at least the next three days.


Pretty sure it's "stuck ". There hasn't been that much melt for the last 3 days.

FrostKing70

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #133 on: June 11, 2018, 03:41:26 PM »
I agree, seems to be a data issue.  The other site shows a different pattern:

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #134 on: June 11, 2018, 03:44:10 PM »
For clarity, that chart came from:

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #135 on: June 13, 2018, 04:05:08 PM »
Melt 37% for three days is quite impressive.

Pretty sure it's "stuck ". There hasn't been that much melt for the last 3 days.
It surely is stuck except for the daily surface mass balance map, that shows there is melting and precipitation minimal. (12th June map)

NSIDC Greenland today also posted - data at 11th June
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #136 on: June 14, 2018, 12:23:30 PM »
Melt 37% for three days is quite impressive.

Pretty sure it's "stuck ". There hasn't been that much melt for the last 3 days.
It surely is stuck except for the daily surface mass balance map, that shows there is melting and precipitation minimal. (12th June map)
Stuck or not stuck ? Today's images from DMI say not (https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)

Images as at 13th June attached.. Downturn in SMB not yet started.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #137 on: June 15, 2018, 11:28:39 AM »
(https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)

Images as at 13th June attached.. Downturn in SMB not yet started.

Note how NSIDC (https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/) produces a somewhat different result. Algorithms?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #138 on: June 17, 2018, 02:58:56 PM »
(https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)

Images as at 16th June attached.. Downturn in SMB not yet started.

Melt continues, precipitation minimal, but SMB in minimal decline.
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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #139 on: June 19, 2018, 12:20:24 PM »
(https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)

Images as at 18th June attached..

Melt continues, precipitation low, but SMB in minimal decline.

June has been an odd month so far. Until the end of May accumulated SMB was looking really average. Then despite higher than average daily melt  accumulated SMB is now 50+ gt above average.

ps:- the Arctic melting season also slowed in June. (see Arctic  area graph below)The graph is wrong - sorry everybody - corrected graph hopefully attached
« Last Edit: June 19, 2018, 02:42:37 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #140 on: June 19, 2018, 02:08:22 PM »
I suspect there is a connection.  Possibly the cold Canadian side?

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #141 on: June 19, 2018, 11:13:25 PM »
I suspect there is a connection.  Possibly the cold Canadian side?
Which was also my thought.
But the melting is mostly on the West Coast.
But the main part of Greenland had -ve temp anomalies and apparently albedo is high. We will see.
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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #142 on: June 21, 2018, 12:02:05 AM »


The temperatures have been below average for the month so far across an area from Quebec (heavy lingering snowfall) to northern Greenland, with some indication that the CAA and Beaufort have been cooler than normal as well. It's hard to tell for the Beaufort, though, since the ground temperature this time of year on the ice is pretty much always 0-1C.

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #143 on: June 21, 2018, 11:33:35 AM »
(https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)

Images as at 20th June attached..

Melt continues though now down to average , precipitation average to low, but SMB in minimal or zero decline.

June has been an odd month so far. Until the end of May accumulated SMB was looking really average. Then despite higher than average daily melt  accumulated SMB is now 50+ gt above average.

ps:- the Arctic melting season has also slowed in June.
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Daniel B.

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #144 on: June 21, 2018, 02:15:27 PM »
How long can it continue?

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #145 on: June 21, 2018, 04:06:52 PM »
How long can it continue?
Until there is a downturn? Looks like not in the next week at least

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #146 on: June 23, 2018, 12:36:46 PM »
(https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)

Images as at 22nd June attached.. Same commentary

Melt continues though now down to average , precipitation average to low, but SMB in minimal or zero decline.

June has been an odd month so far. Until the end of May accumulated SMB was looking really average. Then despite higher than average daily melt  accumulated SMB is now 50+ gt above average.

ps:- the Arctic melting season has also slowed in June.
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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #147 on: June 23, 2018, 10:54:41 PM »
What would be the effect if the sea below the ice on Greenland becomes a sea ? Because it's connected to the sea. let's say a small part for a short periode.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2018, 11:01:15 PM by Alexander555 »

Alexander555

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #148 on: June 23, 2018, 11:12:07 PM »
There are already places much further north where there is no snow or ice at this moment. And if the hot blob in the Atlantic becomes permanent. Than why should we not get a little sea in Greenland ? Juan C posted the pic a couple months ago.

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Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« Reply #149 on: Today at 09:02:49 AM »
And if the hot blob in the Atlantic becomes permanent.

Do you mean cold instead of hot???
 AFAIK the blob in the North Atlantic is still a cold one - due to the weakening of the AMOC.    I see it referred to as a warming hole (article below) but this too means cold as it is warming not as fast so it's a hole in the increased warming in the arctic.  https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3353.epdf?
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