2018 ENSO

[Alexander555]

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2018-enso-update-what-lurks-beneath

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +13.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +11.1:

[wolfpack513]

The entire upcoming ENSO cycle all comes down to what happens once this kelvin wave surfaces over the next month.  I wonder if we'll see any sustained WWBs once surface temps warm...

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices values through the week centered on April 18 2018; the first two NOAA Eq Pac plots for the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM plots for the Nino 3.4 and IOD indices, respectively; ENSO conditions are currently neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached BoM weekly Nino plots thru the week ending April 22 2018, show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; and collectively they indicate that the current ENSO condition is neutral:

[AbruptSLR]

The entire upcoming ENSO cycle all comes down to what happens once this kelvin wave surfaces over the next month.  I wonder if we'll see any sustained WWBs once surface temps warm...

The attached measured TAO Eq Pac subsurface temp & temp anom profiles are less bullish for possible El Nino conditions later this year than are the profiles from NOAA's computer model:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +9.5:

[Sigmetnow]

“The #MJO has weakened rapidly before reaching Australia, meaning we have seen the end to the big northern rains this #WetSeason. Find out more in our Weekly #Tropical Climate Note http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/ “
         https://twitter.com/BOM_au/status/988664599519158272
Image below.

Australian tropics transition to dry season
Dry conditions are expected for most of northern Australia this week. South-easterly winds prevail over the Northern Territory with showers mostly confined to coastal areas and offshore. The exceptional April heat persists, with near record temperatures likely for western parts of the Top End and Cape York this week. Read more about the exceptional heat in April.

Australia's tropical cyclone season is nearing its official end (30 April). Over the 2017–18 season, nine tropical cyclones were recorded in the Australian region, close to the long-term average of 11. Five of these nine tropical cyclones crossed the coast. Severe tropical cyclone Marcus hit Darwin at category 2 strength, then later strengthened to category 5 over the Indian Ocean, making it the strongest cyclone for the season. Although not counted in Australian cyclone statistics, tropical cyclone Cempaka occurred just north of the Australian region in late November.
See the Bureau's Severe Weather Events for details about each tropical cyclone.

Madden–Julian Oscillation weakens
As predicted, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) weakened rapidly last week as it progressed eastward across the Indian Ocean and is now unlikely to be influencing tropical weather. International models predict the MJO will remain weak over the coming week, hence there is now little chance of another burst of the Australian monsoon this wet season (October–April). When and where the MJO will strengthen again is less clear, with significant differences between model forecasts.
See the Bureau's current MJO monitoring for more information.

Tropical Pacific to remain ENSO-neutral
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. All international climate models indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to slowly warm, but remain at neutral levels through the Australian winter. Most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently neutral. Temperatures at and below the surface in the central Pacific Ocean are within the neutral range, and the trade winds are close to average for this time of year.
See the Bureau's current ENSO Wrap-Up for more information.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +8.6:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast with a start date of April 22 2018, indicates little or no chance of an El Nino event this year:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +7.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +8.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to +6.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +5.0:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following weekly Nino data, the first two images (of the Upper Ocean Heat Anom & the SSTA Evolution, respectively) issued today by NOAA, and the last two plots issued today by the BoM (of the Nino 3.4 & IOD, respectively); ENSO conditions are currently neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly Nino plots show values through the week ending April 29, 2018, & were issued today by the BoM.  These plots show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively; and collectively they indicate that were currently have neutral ENSO conditions:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +4.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +3.0:

[wolfpack513]

Record breaking PMM index for April!

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +2.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +1.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.2:

[Sigmetnow]

“How wild is it that we're now living through La Niña years that might turn out hotter than the monster 97/98 El Niño? ”
https://twitter.com/past_is_future/status/992955691097907200

“2018 is on track to be the fourth warmest year on record after 2016, 2017, & 2015, despite a modest La Niña event leading to a relatively cooler start to the year @hausfath
https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-warm-start-to-2018-despite-la-nina-conditions

https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/992710244055777280
Image below.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has plunged down to -2.0:

[AbruptSLR]

Per: 1) the following weekly NOAA Nino index values thru the week centered on May 2, 2018; 2) the first two NOAA plots issued today for the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and 3) the last two BoM plots for the Nino 3.4 and IOD, indices, respectively for the week ending May 6 2018: the current ENSO conditions remain neutral.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached BoM plots show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices thru the week ending May 6 2018.  This information indicates that currently ENSO conditions remain neutral:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.6:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached TAO Eq Pac subsurface Temp and Temp Anom profiles, indicate that the oceanic equatorial Kelvin wave is dissipating:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.2:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -1.4:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting from May 6 2018; projects a mild & brief cooling trend, together will sustained neutral conditions.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.0:

[gerontocrat]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 May 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19.

During April 2018, the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral, as indicated by mostly near-to- below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the equator

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.1:

[Sleepy]

ECMWF plumes for May.
Nino34 still ran hot for April, the others areas in the middle.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.8:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week ending May 9 2018, and the four attached images, ENSO conditions remain neutral.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached weekly Nino index plots thru the week ending May 13 2018 were issued today by the BoM, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively.  This data indicates that ENSO conditions remain neutral.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.6:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.2:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.8:

[wolfpack513]

Eyeballing it I would say the kelvin wave has strengthen some since AbruptSLR's post a week ago.  +3°C contour showing up with a fuller +2°C contour.     

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.7:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -4.3:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.2: