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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #100 on: February 28, 2018, 02:52:57 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #101 on: February 28, 2018, 08:19:31 AM »
A look at SST anomalies over the last 28 days. This is from Dr. Maue's new site.  This helps to smooth out synoptic weather events.  La Niña obviously still in place but on its last legs.  PDO still positive maybe a hair lower than January? 

Also PMM still very positive.  January came in at the 98.7 percentile.  Looks like another high PMM for February.  Winter ++PMM is correlated with developing Niños in the spring and summer months.


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #102 on: March 01, 2018, 02:45:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -5.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #103 on: March 02, 2018, 02:47:54 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #104 on: March 03, 2018, 02:46:54 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #105 on: March 04, 2018, 02:31:13 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #106 on: March 04, 2018, 09:26:53 AM »
PMM index came in at 2nd highest February in 70 years of records.  2018 was between 2015 and 1968.  PMM index and been found to be a precursor to El Niño events. 

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #107 on: March 04, 2018, 11:34:17 AM »
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-21537-0
I don't understand this area well enough, but I think this is saying that there is a strong, instantaneous positive feedback relationship between PMM and ENSO, rather than one leading the other. Does this suggest another El Nino is imminent?

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #108 on: March 05, 2018, 02:27:52 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -3.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #109 on: March 05, 2018, 10:11:13 PM »
Down-welling kelvin wave continues to grow by the date-line. 

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #110 on: March 06, 2018, 03:33:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #111 on: March 07, 2018, 02:38:38 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -2.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #112 on: March 07, 2018, 10:31:29 AM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on Feb 28 2018; the first two BoM plots thru the week ending March 4 2018 showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, and the last two NOAA plots showing the Pac Eq Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; the ENSO condition continues to move towards neutral conditions, but remains in a weak La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
 17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
 24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
 31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #113 on: March 07, 2018, 10:36:20 AM »
The attached weekly Nino indices were issued by the BoM thru the week ending March 4 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices respectively.  This information confirms that ENSO conditions are slowly moving toward neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #114 on: March 07, 2018, 10:39:04 AM »
The attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast was issued by the BoM starting Feb 25 2018, and indicates that weak La Nina conditions could remain for several months before transitioning to neutral conditions:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #115 on: March 08, 2018, 02:28:26 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -1.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #116 on: March 09, 2018, 02:45:37 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +0.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #117 on: March 10, 2018, 04:04:08 PM »
Per the attached plot issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +1.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #118 on: March 11, 2018, 02:29:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #119 on: March 11, 2018, 09:49:25 AM »
ECMWF Nino plumes for March.
The February forecasts were still bullish (on the warmer side) for for the Nino3+4 regions.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #120 on: March 11, 2018, 03:41:31 PM »
The linked reference discusses the impacts of extreme El Ninos on the NH stratosphere in winter:

Xin Zhou, Jianping Li, Fei Xie, Quanliang Chen, Ruiqiang Ding, Wenxia Zhang & Yang Li (10 March 2018), "Does extreme El Niño have a different effect on the stratosphere in boreal winter than its moderate counterpart?", JGR Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1002/2017JD028064 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD028064/abstract

Abstract: "A robust impact of El Niño on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratosphere has been demonstrated by previous studies, although whether this applies to extreme El Niño is uncertain. The time evolution of the response of the NH stratospheric vortex to extreme El Niño, compared with that to moderate Eastern Pacific El Niño, is addressed by means of composite analysis using the NCEPDOE reanalysis dataset from 1980 to 2016. Lead–lag analysis indicates that the El Niño signal actually leads the stratospheric response by ~2 months. Considering the time lag, the signal of December–January–February El Niño in the NH stratospheric vortex should mature in the February–March–April season (late winter/early spring). The patterns of circulation and temperature for late winter/early spring during extreme and moderate El Niño events are significant, exhibiting similar structure. The results are confirmed with the WACCM4 model, which is forced with observed SSTs of extreme and moderate El Niño in winter (December–January–February) to analyze the day-to-day propagation of their signals. Note that the magnitudes of the stratospheric responses are much larger in the case of extreme El Niño, as stronger upward propagation of planetary waves leads to a weaker northern polar vortex than during moderate El Niño events."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #121 on: March 11, 2018, 07:36:21 PM »
The ENSO chart below was from AbruptSLR above.  I have highlighted the SHORT TERM "counter trends" in RED.  The LONG TERM TREND in BLUE.

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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #122 on: March 12, 2018, 02:29:48 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #123 on: March 12, 2018, 03:20:44 PM »
The ENSO chart below was from AbruptSLR above.  I have highlighted the SHORT TERM "counter trends" in RED.  The LONG TERM TREND in BLUE.

For those who are uncertain, sustained ENSO values more positive than +8 suggest La Nina conditions; and sustain values between +8 and -8 suggest Neutral conditions; while sustain values below -8 suggest El Nino condition.  Furthermore, as an extreme El Nino occurred in the 2015-16 season; one should expect the 2-year long trend of the Blue line to be moving toward neutral conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #124 on: March 13, 2018, 02:34:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #125 on: March 13, 2018, 08:32:12 AM »
Is this real or a glitch? Must be one of the most bizarre pics I've ever seen!


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #126 on: March 13, 2018, 04:37:55 PM »
Is this real or a glitch? Must be one of the most bizarre pics I've ever seen!

LVM,

The attached PMEL-TAO measured/observed Eq Pac Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles (or March 12, 2018), indicated that most likely the NOAA model projections are indeed a glitch (i.e. fake news).  But I suspect it will take more WWBs to keep the oceanic EKW active enough to create El Nino conditions by Fall of 2018.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #127 on: March 13, 2018, 05:20:39 PM »
Thank you ASLR! That was what I thought! Forgot to check out the TAO/PMEL pic. Let's see what the next update shows. Oh yeah, we need more WWBs to get an El Niño by fall. Personally, I'm more inclined to think that the possibility for an El Niño shoud be higher next year. We are still in the wake of a vaning La Niña.

The latest forecast calls for wekly positive wind anomalies in the Western Pacific around 150oE. Might keep the Kelvin wave alive for a while. But we certainly need more than that.

//LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #128 on: March 14, 2018, 02:54:39 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #129 on: March 15, 2018, 02:28:28 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #130 on: March 16, 2018, 02:35:12 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +5.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #131 on: March 16, 2018, 07:44:50 AM »
All ENSO events are of course different but it's still the largest "natural" climate variation on Earth. That said, the rest should probably go into the "anecdotal stories" thread, but since those who have followed these ENSO threads for years might be aware of, there is one event preceding the 2015-2016 El Nino that is at least somewhat similar, the 1982-1983 event. That event has brought me small flashbacks and oddities for five years now and that also why I never believed we would have no more than a weak La nina to follow the latest El Nino.

Adding another oddity, the Arctic SIE via NSIDC in March 1985, two years after the El Nino. Right were we are now, timewise, after the 2015-2016 event.
The Arctic is of course a totally different place today than in 1985, 16% of the ice pack was very old ice then, but by March 2017, this ice category only constituted 0.9% of the ice pack. The extent of the oldest ice declined from 2.54 million km2 in March 1985 to 0.13 million km2 in March 2017. Adding a sea ice age comparison for week 11 (as now) from last year.

If the future follows suit to the 1982-1983 event, we might see a return of El Nino in 2019 and not in 2018. We have not yet seen a Wadhams like ~1M extent during 2016 or 2017, much thanks to low pressure dominated summers. Ocean heat content is way higher today. Looking at JISAO PDO numbers, still not updated for February but will probably be positive for the 50:th consecutive month since January 2014...

The final graph is also from last year. Continuing with the above analog to 1982-1983, when we get the next strong La Nina, it's good bye to any September extent still up there in September.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #132 on: March 16, 2018, 08:51:16 AM »
I would say it's a 50-50 chance that we'll see a new El Niño this year. In any case, I think it's almost certain that if not this year, we'll see an El Niño next year.

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #133 on: March 16, 2018, 10:47:40 AM »
Mid March forecast probabilities from IRI will be interesting.
In March 2014 the mid month probabilities for NDJ were 3%, 39% and 58% and none of the models listed at IRI were below 0° from ASO.

Early March forecast from IRI 2014 showed probabilities for OND at 7%, 41% and 52%.
Early March forecast from IRI 2018 shows probabilities for OND at 20%, 40% and 40%.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #134 on: March 16, 2018, 06:44:28 PM »
If the future follows suit to the 1982-1983 event, we might see a return of El Nino in 2019 and not in 2018.

The attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting March 11, 2018 concurs with your assessment about 2018, and I would not be surprised if 2019 has a moderate El Nino.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #135 on: March 17, 2018, 02:30:38 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +6.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #136 on: March 17, 2018, 06:52:08 AM »
If the future follows suit to the 1982-1983 event, we might see a return of El Nino in 2019 and not in 2018.

The attached POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting March 11, 2018 concurs with your assessment about 2018, and I would not be surprised if 2019 has a moderate El Nino.
Taking the comparison a bit further, the moderate El Nino in 86-87 was followed by a strong El Nino in 87-88.

Warm water volume in the west is rising and depth averaged temps are already on par with 2011.

JISAO PDO was updated for February with 0.37, despite a slight drop from January we can now skip the "probably". It's positive for the 50:th consecutive month since January 2014. That, is not analogue to anything.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #137 on: March 18, 2018, 02:34:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +6.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #138 on: March 19, 2018, 02:45:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +8.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #139 on: March 19, 2018, 04:27:10 PM »

Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices through the week centered on March 14 2018, and the first two NOAA Eq Pac plots showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution (both issued today), and the last two BoM plots showing the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, thru the week ending March 18 2018; the ENSO remains in a weak La Nina condition:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
 07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
 14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
 21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
 28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1


“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #140 on: March 19, 2018, 04:30:01 PM »
Today, the BoM issued the four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending March 18, 2018, & show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, indices, respectively.  Collectively, these plots indicate that the ENSO remains in a week La Nina condition:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #141 on: March 19, 2018, 04:32:21 PM »
The attached TAO subsurface Temp, & Temp Anom, profiles for the Eq Pac were issued today, and indicate that while the oceanic EKW continues to move eastward, its temperature gradient is not intensifying; which suggests that we will not reach even weak El Nino conditions by the end of 2018.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #142 on: March 19, 2018, 05:38:17 PM »
2019 will do nicely for next enso to be called! ( late 2019)  :)
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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Sleepy

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #143 on: March 19, 2018, 05:42:57 PM »
If, it would more likely be called the 2019-2020 El Nino and if it would follow suit to the 1982 El Nino it would then be followed by the 2020-2021 El Nino.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #144 on: March 20, 2018, 02:29:55 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +8.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #145 on: March 21, 2018, 02:31:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +8.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #146 on: March 22, 2018, 02:28:13 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

FishOutofWater

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #147 on: March 22, 2018, 04:33:26 AM »
The Kelvin wave continues to move west but it is losing some of its intensity.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #148 on: March 23, 2018, 03:05:03 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #149 on: March 24, 2018, 02:32:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +10.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson