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jai mitchell

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #300 on: June 16, 2018, 06:58:16 PM »
https://www.axios.com/el-nino-watch-issued-as-new-event-nears-0ae8c12a-460f-4ce5-930f-1bce02878e72.html

El Niño watch issued as signs point to a return of the climate cycle

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued an El Niño watch, meaning that conditions are favorable for El Niño conditions to develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean within the next six months.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #301 on: June 17, 2018, 04:03:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +0.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #302 on: June 18, 2018, 03:42:45 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -0.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #303 on: June 19, 2018, 03:45:54 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly down to -2.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #304 on: June 20, 2018, 03:27:25 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -2.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #305 on: June 21, 2018, 03:30:03 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -2.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #306 on: June 22, 2018, 03:43:35 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -2.7:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #307 on: June 23, 2018, 03:39:16 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -3.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #308 on: June 24, 2018, 03:28:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #309 on: June 25, 2018, 03:27:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -3.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #310 on: June 25, 2018, 05:23:25 PM »
The following NOAA weekly Nino data together with the first two NOAA images of Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM plots of the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD, indices thru the week ending June 24 2018; the ENSO conditions have warmed but remain neutral:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25APR2018     24.3-0.7     27.1-0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.4
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #311 on: June 25, 2018, 05:26:22 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino indices plots thru the week ending June 24 2018, were issued today by the BoM, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they indicated that while ENSO conditions have warmed recently, they remain neutral:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #312 on: June 25, 2018, 05:28:15 PM »
For what it is worth, the attached TAO Eq Pac subsurface temp and temp anom profiles indicate that the recent oceanic equatorial kelvin wave is beginning to dissipate:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #313 on: June 26, 2018, 03:37:23 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -4.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #314 on: June 27, 2018, 04:55:18 AM »
Positive OLR anomalies have finally shifted west of the dateline.   Normal OLR anomalies from 170W-120W (Niño 3.4). 

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #315 on: June 27, 2018, 07:26:13 AM »
For what it is worth, the attached TAO Eq Pac subsurface temp and temp anom profiles indicate that the recent oceanic equatorial kelvin wave is beginning to dissipate:
I'm not following ENSO as closely as in the past, which is a bad base to stand on with an El Nino watch issued. To me this year still feels like 2014'ish and real coupling will fail.
Adding OLR by BoM.
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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #316 on: June 28, 2018, 03:28:07 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly down to -6.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #317 on: June 29, 2018, 04:41:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #318 on: June 30, 2018, 03:30:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #319 on: July 01, 2018, 03:31:43 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #320 on: July 02, 2018, 03:34:23 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #321 on: July 02, 2018, 04:30:12 PM »
The following NOAA weekly Nino indices data thru the week centered on June 20, 2018, together with the first two NOAA images of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively, and the last two BoM images showing the weekly indices for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively, thru the week ending July 1 2018; all indicate that the current ENSO condition remains neutral.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 02MAY2018     24.2-0.6     26.9-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.9 0.2
 09MAY2018     23.9-0.6     27.0-0.2     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.3
 16MAY2018     23.8-0.4     26.9-0.2     27.8-0.1     29.0 0.2
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5

Furthermore, this data suggests to me that the current weak Oceanic Equatorial Kelvin Wave has peaked, and is beginning to dissipate.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #322 on: July 02, 2018, 04:32:49 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM showing the weekly Nino data thru the week ending July 1, 2018, and show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All of this data indicates the ENSO condition are currently on the warm side of neutral.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #323 on: July 03, 2018, 03:27:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.2:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #324 on: July 04, 2018, 03:27:12 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.1:

20180603,20180702,-6.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #325 on: July 05, 2018, 07:28:24 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -6.7:

20180604,20180703,-6.7
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #326 on: July 05, 2018, 08:01:38 PM »
Starting to get more consistently negative SOI numbers, which is consistent with the atmosphere moving towards a Nino state.

Another easterly trade wind burst (similar to May) will initiate in the next few days and likely stall progression for a while, however.

The ECMWF has a strong MJO signal emerging over the Maritime Continent in a week, which could lead to propagation over the West Pacific late this month, setting up the possibility of strong westerly anomalies over the EKW generation area.

It's important to note that we are farther ahead than we were in 2006 and 2009 for those Nino episodes. The CFS and EC forecast for a Nino of around 1.5C (moderate to borderline strong) in the late autumn look to be on track at the moment.

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #327 on: July 06, 2018, 03:32:42 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved rapidly down to -8.2:

20180605,20180704,-8.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #328 on: July 06, 2018, 04:05:11 AM »
Starting to get more consistently negative SOI numbers, which is consistent with the atmosphere moving towards a Nino state.
Indeed the 90-day moving average SOI has turned negative a few days ago.

jai mitchell

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #329 on: July 06, 2018, 09:12:27 PM »
Starting to get more consistently negative SOI numbers, which is consistent with the atmosphere moving towards a Nino state.
Indeed the 90-day moving average SOI has turned negative a few days ago.

it is going to start getting hot in here.
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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #330 on: July 07, 2018, 03:27:45 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -8.9:

20180606,20180705,-8.9
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #331 on: July 08, 2018, 03:30:29 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved  up to -8.0:

20180607,20180706,-8.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #332 on: July 09, 2018, 03:41:43 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -7.8:

20180608,20180707,-7.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #333 on: July 09, 2018, 04:28:50 PM »
For some reason the BoM did not post plots of the weekly Nino data thru last week so here I am only posting weekly Eq Pac data/plots from NOAA thru the week centered on July 4 2018.  The first plot shows the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, the second the SSTA Evolution and the third TAO's Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom profiles.  All of this data indicates that we remain on the warm side of neutral ENSO conditions:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #334 on: July 10, 2018, 03:27:34 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved  up to -8.5:

20180609,20180708,-8.5
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #335 on: July 10, 2018, 09:43:37 PM »
Strong MJO passage across the Pacific basin the next 2 weeks.  This may set up the El Niño standing wave (in terms of convection).  MJOs help Kelvin waves develop in the winter/spring and also kick El Niño in higher gear in summer. 

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #336 on: July 11, 2018, 03:33:30 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -8.4:

20180610,20180709,-8.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #337 on: July 11, 2018, 09:32:54 AM »
ECMWF Nino plumes for July.
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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #338 on: July 11, 2018, 03:19:43 PM »
Another upward adjustment by the EC. Starting to push towards the strong category, like the CFSv2. They're very close on strength now, after some jostling around during the "Spring Barrier".

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #339 on: July 11, 2018, 04:07:55 PM »
Yeah, or playing catch up with reality since April. At least the Nino3 & 4 runs are more collected now in July. But after last years performance, up until March 2018, I'm hesitant to look much further than August.

Last year:


Jan-Mar:
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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #340 on: July 12, 2018, 05:28:42 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to -6.0:

20180611,20180710,-6.0
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #341 on: July 12, 2018, 09:49:04 PM »
Climate Prediction Center July ENSO update is out.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 July 2018
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to about 65% during fall, and to about 70% during winter 2018-19.
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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #342 on: July 14, 2018, 03:36:19 AM »
Per the following BoM data, the 30-day moving average SOI continued to move upward:

20180612,20180711,-5.2
20180613,20180712,-4.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #343 on: July 14, 2018, 10:34:10 PM »
GFS 200 VP anomalies.  MJO wave moves over the Niño 3.4 this week.  Divergence aloft from this wave may help jump start Niño standing wave. 

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #344 on: July 15, 2018, 03:49:31 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -5.0:

20180614,20180713,-5.0
« Last Edit: July 16, 2018, 03:50:59 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #345 on: July 16, 2018, 03:50:36 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.1:


20180615,20180714,-4.1
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #346 on: July 16, 2018, 05:34:29 PM »
As the BoM has not posted updated Nino data, here I only provide the following NOAA data and plots.  The two plots show data from the Eq Pac, issued today, with the first showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom (which held steady last week) and the second showing the SSTA Evolution (which shows some cooling from last week), while the following weekly Nino 3.4 data centered on July 11, 2018 indicates a value of 0.2C.  Thus the ENSO continues to fluctuate in a neutral condition.

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 23MAY2018     23.0-0.8     26.9-0.1     27.7-0.1     29.0 0.2
 30MAY2018     23.5-0.1     27.0 0.2     27.8 0.0     29.0 0.2
 06JUN2018     22.8-0.5     26.8 0.2     27.7 0.0     29.0 0.2
 13JUN2018     22.0-1.0     26.7 0.2     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.3
 20JUN2018     21.6-1.0     26.7 0.4     28.0 0.4     29.2 0.4
 27JUN2018     21.7-0.7     26.6 0.4     27.9 0.4     29.3 0.5
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #347 on: July 17, 2018, 04:37:53 PM »
Per the following data issued yesterday by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.4:

20180616,20180715,-3.4
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #348 on: July 18, 2018, 04:17:35 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.6:

20180617,20180716,-2.6
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 ENSO
« Reply #349 on: July 19, 2018, 06:34:23 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -2.5:

20180618,20180717,-2.5
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 03:26:26 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson