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By 2023-2028 period, what will happen to emissions and airborne fraction?

Emissions continue to rise at increased rate, airborne fraction increases
1 (5%)
Emissions continue to rise at increased rate, airborne fraction no noticeable change
0 (0%)
Emissions continue to rise steadily at approx existing rate, airborne fraction increases
10 (50%)
Emissions continue to rise steadily at approx existing rate, airborne fraction no noticeable change
2 (10%)
Emissions continue but at declining rate, airborne fraction increases
5 (25%)
Emissions continue but at declining rate, airborne fraction no noticeable change
2 (10%)

Total Members Voted: 20

Voting closed: January 31, 2018, 04:34:51 PM

Author Topic: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 7516 times)

Lurk

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #50 on: May 07, 2018, 06:19:36 PM »


Aha, was under my nose all the time. TY very much.
Previously known as  ASILurker - sorry should have said that before
"The history of the race, and each individual's experience, are thick with evidence that a truth is not hard to kill and that a lie told well is immortal." — Mark Twain

JimD

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #51 on: May 08, 2018, 12:59:48 AM »
I've mentioned many times that to get emissions under control you have to shut down the global tourism industry.  Here is why...

Quote
Domestic and international tourism account for eight percent of greenhouse gas emissions, four times more than previously estimated, according to a study published Monday.
The multi-trillion dollar industry's carbon footprint is expanding rapidly, driven in large part by demand for energy-intensive air travel, researchers reported in the journal Nature Climate Change.

"Tourism is set to grow faster than many other economic sectors," with revenue projected to swell by four percent annually through 2025, noted lead-author Arunima Malik, a researcher at The University of Sydney's business school...

...As in decades past, the United States is the single largest emitter of tourism-related carbon emissions, with other wealthy nations -- Germany, Canada and Britain -- also in the top ten.

But emerging economies with burgeoning middle classes have moved up the ranking, with China in second place and India, Mexico and Brazil 4th, 5th and 6th, respectively....

...The total number of air passengers is expected to almost double by 2036 to 7.8 billion per year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

7.8 billion is a scary number. Those are not going to be electric planes.

http://www.spacedaily.com/afp/180507150126.yqljztgb.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

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JimD

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #52 on: May 08, 2018, 01:02:26 AM »
Forgot this part from the article above.

Quote
...Neither tourism nor aviation are currently covered by the 2015 Paris climate treaty, which calls for capping global warming at "well below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit),...

I have trouble thinking that was anything but great industry lobbying. I wonder what other business segments were conveniently left out?
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Lurk

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #53 on: May 09, 2018, 11:14:50 AM »
Thanks to all who replied to my query about alternative CO2 stations data. I just now realised its plausible the volcano was causing issues in april before it began erupting full on. Maybe that's all it is. 
« Last Edit: May 09, 2018, 04:28:28 PM by ASILurker »
Previously known as  ASILurker - sorry should have said that before
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Csnavywx

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #54 on: May 09, 2018, 10:44:34 PM »
CO2 values at Mauna Loa are unlikely to be affected by the volcano unless the plume can breach the subtropical inversion that typically sets up there. The fast fluctuations are likely due to weather (a longwave trough axis recently passed over the station during the drop and could have easily entrained some lower CO2 air down over the station).

JimD

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #55 on: May 11, 2018, 01:19:06 AM »
Quote
Trump White House axes Nasa research into greenhouse gas cuts

The Carbon Monitoring System (CMS), a $10m (£7m)-a-year project which remotely tracks the world's flow of carbon dioxide, is to lose funding.

Science magazine reports that its loss jeopardises the ability to measure national emission cuts - as agreed to by nations in the Paris climate deal.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44067797
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #56 on: May 12, 2018, 07:15:39 PM »
Kees van der Leun.  https://twitter.com/Sustainable2050/status/995056062016483328

“Since I was born, CO2 at Mauna Loa crossed:
320 ppm in May 1960
330 in May 1972
340 March 1980
350 May 1986
360 May 1993
370 April 1999
380 April 2004
390 May 2009
400 April 2014
and 410 ppm in April 2018
I apologize for any inconvenience caused.”

“Years it took us to drive up CO2 by 10 ppm:
320 → 330:  12
330 → 340:   8
340 → 350:   6
350 → 360:   7
360 → 370:   6
370 → 380:   5
380 → 390:  5
390 → 400:  5
400 → 410:  4
That’s making the climate crisis worse faster.”


People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #57 on: May 13, 2018, 01:14:11 AM »
We not only haven't stopped it's growth, we haven't even slowed it's acceleration.


If we added CH4 to the chart it could get scary. :-\


Bob mentioned on another thread that we just needed to speed up what we're doing to curb emissions.
I think we've got to slow down, way down.


40 MPH on the freeway, 20 everywhere else.
Ground all of the planes.
No new cars, trucks, or ships.
It may not turn us around, but it might stop the acceleration.


Drastic measures are called for.
Terry

Sleepy

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #58 on: May 13, 2018, 07:44:42 AM »
Doing less is not that drastic, Terry.
During my puny stay on this one and only human habitat in the universe, humanity has taken some seriously drastic measures to ramp up CO2 ~100ppm. Either we fix that ourselves or evolution will fix it for us.

Planet Earth has a nasty way to deal with nuisances.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.

TeaPotty

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #59 on: May 13, 2018, 03:36:27 PM »
We not only haven't stopped it's growth, we haven't even slowed it's acceleration.


If we added CH4 to the chart it could get scary. :-\

Good to see more people saying this, because I've felt alone repeating it for years. We havent done anything to cut CO2 emissions significantly enough to fight climate change.

The climate movement keeps getting used for purposes other than fighting climate change. The movement spent years caught up pointlessly arguing with deniers, abstaining from politics while publishing articles promising false hope, and even protesting Trump like he caused this problem.

I love hearing this comedy about how horrible Conservative parties are destroying all the non-existent progress of Liberal parties. There was also a good joke a few years back claiming that actual emissions paused, even though CO2 emissions didnt.

Now that CH4 emissions are accelerating along with CO2, this show is starting get interesting. How much longer can people keep lying to themselves that things will be alright?

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #60 on: May 13, 2018, 04:40:48 PM »
We not only haven't stopped it's growth, we haven't even slowed it's acceleration.


If we added CH4 to the chart it could get scary. :-\


Bob mentioned on another thread that we just needed to speed up what we're doing to curb emissions.
I think we've got to slow down, way down.


40 MPH on the freeway, 20 everywhere else.
Ground all of the planes.
No new cars, trucks, or ships.
It may not turn us around, but it might stop the acceleration.


Drastic measures are called for.
Terry

I will say again, we simply cannot rely on market mechanisms to get us where we need to be. We need a Marshall Plan, a planet wide commitment to transition away from fossil fuels and it needs to be completed in 2 decades.

TerryM

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #61 on: May 13, 2018, 05:23:48 PM »
I will say again, we simply cannot rely on market mechanisms to get us where we need to be. We need a Marshall Plan, a planet wide commitment to transition away from fossil fuels and it needs to be completed in 2 decades.
Isn't this just another way of saying that we're just waiting for the fat lady to sing a dirge for the death of civilization?


A Marshall Plan actually requires some tin star marshall to come blazing into town with all of his brothers, rooting out and shooting up every evil doer in the territory. Who is going to tell both Dangerous Donald and Vicious Vlad that they not only have to holster their nukes, they've got to hand them over to the New Marshall in Town?
Who has the moral authority to tell China and India to stop moving their poor into the middle class? Who can tell tropical people and desert dwellers that they must turn off the air conditioning in the baby's room?
Waiting for a Marshal to appear, and putting any hope in any Plan he might envision is like waiting for Godot, if he exists, he's got pressing business somewhere else.


We couldn't agree on the shape of the table where Peace in Vietnam would be negotiated. Slavery exists almost 200 years after Britain abolished it. New coal plants are coming on line, and newer ones are on the drawing board.


Two decades is the blink of an eye.
Terry

Tunnelforce9

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #62 on: May 13, 2018, 07:57:33 PM »
Cement is another huge problem, at the moment CO2 emissions from cement production in China is more then India's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel.


https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/06/06/building-china-the-role-of-cement-in-chinas-rapid-development/

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #63 on: May 14, 2018, 03:52:02 PM »
I will say again, we simply cannot rely on market mechanisms to get us where we need to be. We need a Marshall Plan, a planet wide commitment to transition away from fossil fuels and it needs to be completed in 2 decades.
Isn't this just another way of saying that we're just waiting for the fat lady to sing a dirge for the death of civilization?


A Marshall Plan actually requires some tin star marshall to come blazing into town with all of his brothers, rooting out and shooting up every evil doer in the territory. Who is going to tell both Dangerous Donald and Vicious Vlad that they not only have to holster their nukes, they've got to hand them over to the New Marshall in Town?
Who has the moral authority to tell China and India to stop moving their poor into the middle class? Who can tell tropical people and desert dwellers that they must turn off the air conditioning in the baby's room?
Waiting for a Marshal to appear, and putting any hope in any Plan he might envision is like waiting for Godot, if he exists, he's got pressing business somewhere else.


We couldn't agree on the shape of the table where Peace in Vietnam would be negotiated. Slavery exists almost 200 years after Britain abolished it. New coal plants are coming on line, and newer ones are on the drawing board.


Two decades is the blink of an eye.
Terry

The U.S. rebuilding Europe using the Marshall Plan did not undermine Democracies. It strengthened them. If the rebuilding of Europe had been left to market forces, it would have taken decades.

If we are worried about autocratic states, let the unfolding disaster deliver unbelievable pain and suffering without any advance prep. A dying population will not resist a police state. It will welcome it.

crandles

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #64 on: May 17, 2018, 03:31:30 PM »
April 2018:       410.26 ppm

Record high monthly value and first over 410.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #65 on: May 17, 2018, 04:38:48 PM »
How did this discussion develop on this CO2 thread?


A personal lack of discipline on my part.

Lurk

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #66 on: May 17, 2018, 04:52:10 PM »
April 2018:       410.26 ppm

Record high monthly value and first over 410.

May 16:      412.09 ppm
May 15:      411.97 ppm
May 14:      412.45 ppm

Probably a record daily reading at MLO

Shared Humanity

Doesn't matter, no biggy to me, merely surprised  :)
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crandles

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #67 on: May 17, 2018, 04:58:11 PM »
May 14:      412.45 ppm

Probably a record daily reading at MLO

Did that a little up thread:
412.63 26th April 2017
still retains record.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #68 on: June 02, 2018, 03:40:28 PM »
Nice general analysis of greenhouse gas emissions. No new ground here but a good graph rich read.

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #69 on: June 02, 2018, 08:17:34 PM »
While I believe that the linked data errs on the side of least drama, this NOAA data indicates that for the year 2017: CO2eq = 493ppm & AGGI =1.41.

Title: "THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI), Updated Spring 2018"

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html
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crandles

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #70 on: June 07, 2018, 02:00:10 PM »
Peak month CO2 at Mauna Loa:

Quote
May 2018:       411.25 ppm
May 2017:       409.65 ppm

Up 1.6 ppm

Sleepy

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #71 on: June 18, 2018, 07:29:01 AM »
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #72 on: June 18, 2018, 03:39:37 PM »
An exponential growth in atmospheric CO2 that parallels the development of the industrial revolution.

https://www.ducksters.com/history/us_1800s/timeline_industrial_revolution.php

1. A graph of world energy consumption.
2. A graph of early industrial Great Britain.
3. A graph of world population growth.
4. A graph of sea level changes.

Not a coincidence that each have a pronounced exponential behavior.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2018, 03:51:27 PM by Shared Humanity »

Lurk

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #73 on: June 19, 2018, 05:02:34 AM »
Shared Humanity said on another thread: If BP is correct then CO2 will be 450ppm by 2035 (in 17 years)

This assumes an annual growth rate of about 2.0 ppm per year. This assumes there will not be more 2015-2016 El Nino events that bumped CO2 levels by 3 ppm in a single year.

“These three tropical regions released 2.5 gigatons more carbon into the atmosphere than they did in 2011,” [...] "In 2015 and 2016, OCO-2 recorded atmospheric carbon dioxide increases that were 50 percent larger than the average increase seen in recent years preceding these observations."
Ref: https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-pinpoints-cause-of-earth-s-recent-record-carbon-dioxide-spike

Is the Rate of Increase in Atmospheric Concentration of CO2 Increasing (Accelerating)?

aka "Does Bob Wallace really have the inside running on future outcomes?"
 
As a guide Annual Mean Growth Rate of CO2 for Mauna Loa
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo_anngr.png

The current Decadal Growth Rate is as follows
2010 2.32
2011 1.92
2012 2.61
2013 2.01
2014 2.19
2015 3.00
2016 2.98
2017 1.95
2018 1.70 to June
Therefore the Average to Date for 8.5 years is +2.30 ppm

Average of the last 5 years is slightly higher +2.36 ppm, despite the recent drop in the rate of increase.

The Decadal averages of the growth rate are approx:
1960s 0.85
1970s 1.30
1980s 1.60
1990s 1.50
2000s 2.00
2010s 2.30 (to 2018)

Therefore the Growth Rate of Atmospheric CO2 Decadal Trend has been accelerating from 1960 to 2018 (the present). Even if the 2019 CO2 growth rate remains steady at 1.70 ppm or falls even lower the Decadal Growth Rate will remain well above the 2000s growth rate of 2.00 – thus confirming an accelerating growth rate since 1960 out to 2019.

The specific sources for this ongoing increase in CO2 concentrations is irrelevant to the fact of an accelerating rate of increase long term. This is because CO2 is CO2 is CO2. No matter where atmospheric CO2 comes from the Global Warming Forcing component of CO2 remains exactly the same. (yes?)

The last time the growth rate was below 1.70 ppm for more than a single year was between 1999-2001 after the 1998 record global temp year and the 1997-1998 El Nino event. This is two decades ago.

Therefore I ‘suspect’ it is more likely than not the Annual CO2 Growth Rate will again rise above 2.00 ppm in 2019. Where it is possible the growth rate will rise by 2.30 ppm or higher. If this was to happen this would easily push the 2010s Decadal Rate above 2.40 ppm.
(I copied this summary - it appears correct - or close enough)

It seems possible even probable (?) given the current rise in Fossil Fuel use in 2017/2018:
The Weekly CO2 record high for 2019 could be 414 ppm during May. And another El Nino event could only push that higher whenever the next one arrives. We'll see.

Until I see significant sustainable change in Fossil Fuel use and the economy wide drivers of AGW then my answer to the Poll above; By 2023-2028 period, what will happen to emissions and airborne fraction? I couldn't say anything other than: 1. Emissions continue to rise at increased rate, airborne fraction increases at this point at least. The momentum despite all growth in renewable energy still seems to heading this way - of course it could change course but when is still unknown and/or unclear.   
« Last Edit: June 19, 2018, 03:35:25 PM by ASILurker »
Previously known as  ASILurker - sorry should have said that before
"The history of the race, and each individual's experience, are thick with evidence that a truth is not hard to kill and that a lie told well is immortal." — Mark Twain

wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #74 on: June 19, 2018, 07:55:28 AM »
El Niños always have an impact on the year-over-year CO2 rate so it's already baked in to the longterm regressions.  An annual growth rate of 2.0 ppm is wishful thinking unless we change course fast.  Tamino shows the current growth rate is closer to 2.25 PPM and accelerating.  There will be non El Nino +3.0 PPM years before too long.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/01/20/is-co2-still-accelerating/

crandles

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #75 on: June 19, 2018, 01:15:21 PM »
.......
Until I see significant sustainable change in Fossil Fuel use and the economy wide drivers of AGW then my answer to the Poll above;

By 2023-2028 period, what will happen to emissions and airborne fraction?

Cannot be anything other than: 1. Emissions continue to rise at increased rate, airborne fraction increases

For the period 2018 to 2023, I would have to agree with emissions continue to rise at increased rate. Airborne fraction and later 2023-2028 period seems much less clear to me.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2018, 01:22:03 PM by crandles »

wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #76 on: June 28, 2018, 09:52:35 AM »
Was curious what the year-over-year change for every month looks like rather than 1 single point per year.  Red line is running 12-month average.  Just did last 10 years but that includes several of Niños and Niñas.

wolfpack513

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #77 on: July 12, 2018, 08:00:09 AM »
June 2018 came in at 410.79.  Nearly a 2 PPM year-over-year change.  The 12-month running smooth should be bottoming out soon with Niño firing up.  It took until ~October 2015 before YoY changes started to jump.  However, that was a multi year Niño which makes it different than previous events.

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Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #78 on: July 13, 2018, 04:05:02 PM »
April global reading is in:

April 2018:        408.96 ppm
April 2017:        406.33 ppm

+2.63ppm -- still running ahead of 2017's increase, which is a bit surprising. I expected there to be more braking action from the Nina at this point, like Mauna Loa had, but the other stations aren't really showing it:



2010s continue their streak of coming in well above 2ppm, with the exception of the 2011 "Super Nina" year, which featured a very cold trop. Pacific year-round and a strong rebound effect from the 2010 Nino. The rebound effect this time around has been tepid, even with colder basin-wide temps this year:

2010   2.44   (+/-)0.06
2011   1.69   0.09
2012   2.38   0.09
2013   2.42   0.09
2014   2.04   0.09
2015   2.93   0.09
2016   2.85   0.09
2017   2.21   0.09