Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2018 Droughts  (Read 5412 times)

TerryM

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3520
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #50 on: April 12, 2018, 10:21:34 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/11/day-zero-water-crises-spain-morocco-india-and-iraq-at-risk-as-dams-shrink

Worth a read.

Quote
'Day zero' water crises: Spain, Morocco, India and Iraq at risk as reservoirs shrink
A new early warning satellite system reveals countries where shrinking reservoirs could lead to the taps completely drying up
Where to post something like this?

Places becoming less liveable ?
Climate, agriculture food?
Expansion of deserts?

We haven't got a water resources thread, even though climate change is bound to make the problems worse - too much water, not enough water.
US Department of Defence has (or had) water wars as a high risk in the US National Defence Strategy.
I wonder just who they expect to be their enemy?
Terry - the Canadian

Alexander555

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 475
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #51 on: April 12, 2018, 11:02:54 PM »
I wonder how this is going to work out. It takes the entire flow of the Nile for 11 months to fill the dam.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4939938/Dam-upstream-leaves-Egypt-fearing-lifeline-Nile.html

oren

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2154
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 80
  • Likes Given: 171
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #52 on: April 13, 2018, 03:39:19 AM »
I wonder how this is going to work out. It takes the entire flow of the Nile for 11 months to fill the dam.
It can take many years to fill up a dam's reservoir. While Lake Mead took about 4 years, Lake Powell took about 15. In any case, this GERD is going to be a real challenge to all countries involved.
Here is an article discussing the subject.
https://www.water.ox.ac.uk/filling-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-seeking-middle-ground-on-the-nile/

bluesky

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 25
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #53 on: April 21, 2018, 11:40:14 PM »

Whither the 100th Meridian? The Once and Future Physical and Human Geography of America’s Arid–Humid Divide. Part II: The Meridian Moves East (R. Seager, Earths Interactions)

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1


"The 100th meridian bisects the Great Plains of the United States and effectively divides the continent into more arid western and less arid eastern halves and is well expressed in terms of vegetation, land hydrology, crops, and the farm economy. Here, it is considered how this arid–humid divide will change in intensity and location during the current century under rising greenhouse gases. It is first shown that state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project generally underestimate the degree of aridity of the United States and simulate an arid–humid divide that is too diffuse. These biases are traced to excessive precipitation and evapotranspiration and inadequate blocking of eastward moisture flux by the Pacific coastal ranges and Rockies. Bias-corrected future projections are developed that modify observationally based measures of aridity by the model-projected fractional changes in aridity. Aridity increases across the United States, and the aridity gradient weakens. The main contributor to the changes is rising potential evapotranspiration, while changes in precipitation working alone increase aridity across the southern and decrease across the northern United States. The “effective 100th meridian” moves to the east as the century progresses. In the current farm economy, farm size and percent of county under rangelands increase and percent of cropland under corn decreases as aridity increases. Statistical relations between these quantities and the bias-corrected aridity projections suggest that, all else being equal (which it will not be), adjustment to changing environmental conditions would cause farm size and rangeland area to increase across the plains and percent of cropland under corn to decrease in the northern plains as the century advances."

sidd

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3011
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #54 on: April 22, 2018, 12:56:31 AM »
That pair of Seager papers is very good. I can see that i will spend some hours on it. Thanks for the link.

sidd

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11515
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #55 on: April 23, 2018, 08:24:10 PM »
While the city has removed for this year the threat of a “Day Zero” when it would turn off the taps, daily consumption remains 57 million liters above the target of 450 million.

As Cape Town Dam Levels Drop to 20%, Residents Get Flood Warning
- Drought-hit city warned to prepare for deluge later Monday
- Daily water consumption still above 450 million liter target
Quote
Cape Town residents were warned to prepare for potential flooding Monday, on the same day that the average level of dams serving the drought-hit city dwindled to just 20 percent.

The South African government’s weather service said flooding is expected in the metropolis and surrounding regions later, moderating overnight. The forecast of heavy rain is in stark contrast with conditions caused by the worst drought on record, which have led to residents being restricted to using 50 liters (13 gallons) of water each a day and told to take 90-second showers. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-04-23/as-cape-town-dam-levels-drop-to-20-residents-get-flood-warning
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Daniel B.

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 632
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #56 on: April 24, 2018, 07:06:23 PM »
That pair of Seager papers is very good. I can see that i will spend some hours on it. Thanks for the link.

sidd

Those at interesting models.  We will see if recent precipitation increase observations will change to follow it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11515
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #57 on: May 04, 2018, 12:13:55 AM »
The U.S. Southwest.

The water war that will decide the fate of 1 in 8 Americans
Quote
What’s happening could be seen as the slow death of an era of easy living, the unwinding of a nearly 100-year-old series of multi-state compacts (collectively called “The Law of the River”) that’s been widely viewed as too permissive. Over-reliance on the Colorado River has helped pave the way for rapid population growth across the region, from Southern California to Denver, which may now, ironically, begin to pose a threat to those same cities.

For many reasons, Arizona is last in line for the Colorado River’s water, and the state is already preparing for the mandatory restrictions that could be less than two years away. The latest official projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that manages the Colorado River system, shows that Lake Mead is likely to dip below the critical threshold of 1,075 feet above sea level late next year. That could trigger the first official “call on the river” — a legally-mandated cutback for certain users aimed at avoiding an all-out free-for-all. ...
https://grist.org/article/the-water-war-that-will-decide-the-fate-of-1-in-8-americans/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11515
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #58 on: May 11, 2018, 03:37:44 AM »
Southwest U.S.

“Dating back to 2000, this current period is one of the worst drought cycles over the past 1,200 plus years,” the bureau’s statement said.

Look! A federal agency is pushing for urgent climate action.
https://grist.org/article/look-a-federal-agency-is-pushing-for-urgent-climate-action/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 95
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #59 on: May 25, 2018, 05:42:39 PM »
Southwest U.S.

“Dating back to 2000, this current period is one of the worst drought cycles over the past 1,200 plus years,” the bureau’s statement said.

Look! A federal agency is pushing for urgent climate action.
https://grist.org/article/look-a-federal-agency-is-pushing-for-urgent-climate-action/
Meanwhile:-

https://www.abqjournal.com/1175765/drought-on-tap-to-intensify-over-us-southwest.html

Experts: ‘Alarming’ drought conditions hit US Southwest

and

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/24/climate/dry-rio-grande.html

In a Warming West, the
Rio Grande Is Drying Up
[/size][/b]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1833
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #60 on: May 25, 2018, 07:23:58 PM »
I plan to walk across the Rio Grande next week when I visit family.  It might be just across the Rio Grande sand and dried mud flats.  (Most of the water is channelized [where I'm from], but the 'wild' river bed [as pictured above] used to often have water, sometimes even waist deep or deeper across the width.  One could always walk across it during the summer, albeit getting wet feet and maybe shins.  "Summer" is just getting earlier and earlier.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.


Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11515
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #62 on: June 05, 2018, 08:38:11 PM »
Cape Town Dam Levels Recover to 30% After Higher May Rainfall
Quote
Dam levels in reservoirs serving the drought-hit South African city of Cape Town jumped by 5.8 percentage points last week after rainfall in May exceeded year-earlier figures and as residents continued to endure strict curbs on water use.

The dams were 29.8 percent full as of Monday, compared with 24 percent a week earlier, and 19.6 percent at the same stage in 2017. The level crept up to 30.4 percent on Tuesday, the city said in postings on its website. Three years ago, it was at 79 percent.

May’s rainfall of 216.3 millimeters (8.5 inches) was close to the long-term average, city authorities said in a statement. Residents still aren’t meeting a target of reducing daily consumption to 450 million liters (119 million gallons), using 530 million liters daily last week, an increase of 5 percent on the previous week.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-05/cape-town-dam-levels-recover-to-30-after-higher-may-rainfall
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1833
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 17
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #63 on: June 06, 2018, 04:46:50 AM »
I plan to walk across the Rio Grande next week when I visit family.  ...
My great niece and I walked across the Rio Grande.  Although I found a spot 20-30 cm deep, my g. niece was never in over her ankles.  (There were pools along the edge that looked like they might be deep.)  I learned that the channel that used to carry most of the Rio Grande during the summer in south central New Mexico is no longer used for that purpose, and I noted it was dry below a permanent weir, holding water for local irrigation.

Note the truck tire marks showing where some fool drove in the river bed. The local river banks where we walked would be impassable.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

miki

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 55
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #64 on: June 06, 2018, 04:48:31 AM »
I plan to walk across the Rio Grande next week when I visit family.  ...
My great niece and I walked across the Rio Grande.  Although I found a spot a 20-30 cm deep, my g. niece was never in over her ankles.  (There were pools along the edge that looked like they might be deep.)  I learned that the channel that used to carry most of the Rio Grande during the summer in south central New Mexico is no longer used for that purpose, and I noted it was dry below a permanent weir, holding water for local irrigation.

Yeah! We call it now Rio Poquito  ;)

Alexander555

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 475
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 15

Alexander555

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 475
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 15

DrTskoul

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 864
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #67 on: June 12, 2018, 12:49:56 PM »
Why Delhi is facing an acute water crisis today

Quote
Ahead of the summer, Delhi sees the same story play out every year. Of depleting groundwater levels. Of the water mafia who run illegal borewells. Of apathy by Delhi administration. Of haphazard urbanisation and flawed development models. Of faulty or non-existent plans to meet the ever-rising demand for water. Of courts reprimanding civic authorities. But more than anything, of a callous Delhi citizenry that exploits groundwater as if there is no tomorrow.

On May 9, many citizens woke up to alarming newspaper headlines that pointed to the over-exploitation of groundwater, with the Supreme Court calling the situation "semi-critical". The Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) told the top court that in different parts of the capital, the groundwater level has steadily declined from 0.5 metre a year to more than two metres a year and "could lead to a crisis if not halted".

Quote
...But the most serious revelation made by the CGWB report submitted to the top court is that New Delhi is now counted among "overexploited" zones. It is the same area that witnessed acute water retention till the 1970s, following which New Delhi Municipal Council (NDMC) deployed sumps to pump out the excess sub-surface water.

The crisis began as commercial high-rises came up near the Connaught Place area in the '70s. More than two decades later, in the 2000s, the Delhi Metro lines were laid and today, the Supreme Court extension chambers and a convention centre at Pragati Maidan are being constructed - all adding to the rising demand for water in New Delhi. Such large-scale construction requires de-watering, which leads to continuous depletion of the groundwater level....
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2177
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 95
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #68 on: June 12, 2018, 01:29:30 PM »
In the late 80's up to 2004 I did water projects in several large cities in South Asia and China. The story was the same everywhere - depletion of groundwater, illegal wells, water tariffs giving cheap water to the rich and expensive water to the poor, new water projects always lagging behind population growth and industrial demand. In many places, it was as bad or worse in agricultural areas - groundwater levels dropping like a stone.

Somehow the situation was and is always bad but never quite Armageddon. The worst was Jordan. In the Northern third of Jordan the average lift of water from source to consumer was over 700 metres. Water is heavy.

In Israel there are wells over one kilometre deep. They are investing heavily in desalination - but that is still - despite improved reverse osmosis systems -very expensive in energy and cost.

These problems exist AGW or no AGW. However, climate change may be the final nail in the coffin for one of these large cities somewhere in the world (Mexico City, Phoenix Arizona?). Who knows.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Ned W

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #69 on: June 12, 2018, 02:55:04 PM »
From the UNL drought monitor website:


Daniel B.

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 632
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #70 on: June 12, 2018, 03:11:11 PM »
Over the past 120 years, the US as seen a decrease in areas experiencing the worst drought.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/uspa/wet-dry/0#data-select

jai mitchell

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1878
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #71 on: June 12, 2018, 05:57:37 PM »
NASA Observatory,

Intensifying Drought in the U.S. Southwest
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=92274&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_title

Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

FrostKing70

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 24
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #72 on: June 12, 2018, 06:28:59 PM »
I seem to recall that the big dam in China was projected to have the same issue (years to fill up), then a series of storms hit the area and it was full in less than a year, and helped reduce downstream flooding.   I hope the Nile / Ethiopian dam can experience a similar fill scenario.

Ned W

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 328
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #73 on: June 12, 2018, 07:51:11 PM »
FWIW, Jai, that's literally the same map I posted just a few hours ago, two posts up-thread from yours....

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11515
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #74 on: June 13, 2018, 08:22:23 PM »
'Australia doesn’t realise’: worsening drought pushes farmers to the brink
Liverpool plains farmer Megan Kuhn says cows are being slaughtered because there is no way of feeding them after years of extreme weather
Quote
December was the end of their seventh calendar year of below-average rainfall. In the 12 months to May this year, they have had just over 50% of their annual average rainfall.

“It’s terrible on the back of seven below-average rainfall years in a row,” Fleck says.  “We can’t get over a string of really hot summers. With the sheer consistency of extreme temperatures, the rate of evaporating is so high. We don’t have any surface water left on our property.”

They are relying on two bores and have begun selling their cattle as it becomes harder to sustain the high cashflow that’s necessary to buy in feed. “We spoke to the owners who had this property from 1954 to 1989. We asked what the creek was like in their 34 years. They said it had never dried up,” Fleck says.

“Everywhere is worse than I've ever seen it”
- Jane Judd, National Parks and Wildlife adviser


During the past 14 months, the Bureau of Meteorology has recorded below-average rainfall across New South Wales, central Queensland, the north-west of Victoria and into South Australia.  NSW has been the hardest hit in 2018. With the exception of the north and south coasts, most of the state has recorded the lowest rainfall in a five-month period since 1900.

Soil moisture levels are below average across much of Australia and in its latest winter outlook, the bureau is forecasting warmer and drier than average conditions across large parts of the country.  Communities in NSW say people are struggling and the rest of the country is not aware of the extent of the troubles in parts of that state. ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/10/australia-doesnt-realise-worsening-drought-pushes-farmers-to-the-brink
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Telihod

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 13
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #75 on: June 15, 2018, 08:36:24 PM »
"(CNN) India is facing its worst water shortage in history. Six hundred million people are dealing with high to extreme water shortage, according to a report by Niti Aayog, a policy think tank for the Indian government.
The report states that an average of 200,000 Indian lives are lost every year due to inadequate supply or contamination of water."
"Twenty-one major Indian cities are estimated to run out of groundwater by 2020 -- just two years away."
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/15/health/india-water-shortage-crisis-intl/index.html

Susan Anderson

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 369
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 92
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #76 on: June 15, 2018, 08:52:14 PM »
Friends up north are reporting trouble (Vermont and Maine; I'm in Boston). This is a somewhat folksy response in a discussion group I'm part of; the writer is an expert meteorologist who tracks these things and lives in the middle of Maine. These problems are minor in the global scheme of things, but we are only just getting used to fairly serious droughts in northern New England. I hear that England is also in trouble (from a friend there).

Quote
Everything south of Augusta stayed dry and didn't even see that many clouds.  Aroostook hit the jackpot with well over an inch as most of the rain fell there and into southeast Quebec.  But this system really didn't have any tropical moisture with it, only what it had managed to pick up as it crossed the plains and southern Ontario near the Great Lakes.  That's what I was getting at when I said the polar vortex circulation has remained stuck over Nunavut, sometimes wobbling this way and sometimes that way across northern and northeast Canada.  Currently it's actually split with one half sliding closer to Greenland and the other half over the Northwest Territories as a big blocking high has set up over most of Nunavut in between.  But that pattern has still diverted the main jet stream on a west to east track across the Midwest and Northeast and that spells very dry conditions for this part of the world as only a few hit or miss rain systems occasionally manage to come through while most of the wet tropical air remains locked up down South.  Good luck with the garden.  Things could still change as we get into the summer, but don't count on it.  I think we'll all need some luck with our gardens again this year!!


jacksmith4tx

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 17
    • View Profile
    • Photon mine
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2018 Droughts
« Reply #77 on: June 16, 2018, 02:42:21 AM »
"(CNN) India is facing its worst water shortage in history. Six hundred million people are dealing with high to extreme water shortage, according to a report by Niti Aayog, a policy think tank for the Indian government.
The report states that an average of 200,000 Indian lives are lost every year due to inadequate supply or contamination of water."
"Twenty-one major Indian cities are estimated to run out of groundwater by 2020 -- just two years away."
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/15/health/india-water-shortage-crisis-intl/index.html
Thanks for the news.
At some point they will have to make some hard choices. Do they continue to use thermal energy(boil [and evaporate] water) to make electricity or use it for agriculture and drinking. They seem to be making a token effort to install renewable energy but they will be lucky to hit their own targets and decades behind the Paris targets. I would add that the warmer the ambient temperature of the air and water the less efficient all thermal powers plants. That's not just a India problem since we regularly shut down power plants in the US for the same reason.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.