January Poll: JAXA Antarctica Sea Ice Minimum Extent

[Paddy]

Please give your best guess in answer to the poll title.  The poll closes at the end of January; you may change your answer at any time up to then.  Narrow overlapping bins have been used.

Figures from previous years (with thanks to Darvince for his post last year with most of these):

2017: 2.15 (lowest on record)
2016: 2.66
2015: 3.59 (2nd highest)
2014: 3.54
2013: 3.69 (highest on record)
2012: 3.22
2011: 2.32 (3rd lowest)

2006: 2.41

1997: 2.25 (2nd lowest)

1993: 2.37 (4th lowest)

1986: 3.01
1985: 2.58
1984: 2.53
1983: 2.91
1982: 3.01
1981: 2.74
1980: 2.53
1979: 2.87

Last month's poll results can be found here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2212.0.html

[Sleepy]

Why not, a slight rebound from last year and 2.2, I hope... 

[Tor Bejnar]

I split the difference between 2016 and 2017 minimums (then, there being two possible bins, choose the bin less visited).

[Paddy]

Only a few days left to vote or review votes (poll closes on fhe 31st). Personally, I'm considering going down half a step to 2 to 2.25; it looks like we may be ending up in a similar place to last year, so I'd like to put last year's figure of 2.15 in the middle of my estimated range. EDIT: Going with this change for now.

[Tor Bejnar]

I, too, have joined the masses.  Gerontocrat's postings on the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent thread aren't just influencing me.

[Paddy]

And I've backtracked up to the 2.125 - 2.375 bin.  This year is still well behind 2017, and forecast conditions don't seem dramatically conducive to melt (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/5day/).

[Paddy]

Poll is closed. Forum guesstimates of the minimum seem to have clustered up and also lowered on average since the December poll; statistical analysis coming later.

[Paddy]

Apologies for never supplying any such promised statistical analysis. I think it's now time to call this year's minimum, short of a very late season two century drop: 2.21m square km. Those who bet on the 2 to 2.25 bin got in by a nose; those who guessed at 2.125 to 2.375 were, not to blow my own trumpet, pretty dead on; and those who went for 2.25 to 2.5 missed by a whisker. That's all for guessing on the antarctic melting aeason this year; see you in the freezing season polls!