Northern Lights slash a surprising amount of winter energy bills. Here’s why. (sunspots and QBO)
High aurora activity can cause temperatures to rise and decrease energy consumption, according to a study conducted in Finland
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But the new study is the first to show how this space weather can effect electricity consumption on Earth.
While the sun can influence Earth’s temperatures with its ultraviolet radiation, its stream of energetic particles can also affect other aspects of our weather system — including if cold blasts of air will escape from the Arctic.
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Nobody knows all the nitty-gritty details yet, but Asikainen said the journey begins where our upper atmosphere meets space. Charged particles from the sun aimed at Earth can temporarily disturb the protective magnetic bubble surrounding our planet called the magnetosphere. Solar particles can travel along Earth’s magnetic field lines into our upper atmosphere, where it excites molecules and releases photons of light that we see as an aurora.
The precipitating particles that cause auroras, he said, leave their energy high in the atmosphere and lead to the creation of molecules like nitric oxides. These molecules last a very long time in the dark polar atmosphere during winter and can move very slowly — over a span of weeks to a month — to our stratosphere where the ozone layer is. Here, the molecules can destroy ozone, which helps regulate our planet’s temperature.
Ozone absorbs ultraviolet radiation from the sun and infrared radiation coming up from lower in the atmosphere. Changes in ozone, Asikainen said, influence the temperature of the polar stratosphere. In the polar stratosphere, ozone loss is associated with cooling of the stratosphere — strengthening swirling cold winds known as the polar vortex.
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In the study, the team analyzed decades of geomagnetic activity to discern any connections between auroras, winter temperatures and electricity consumption.
They found that when geomagnetic activity was lower than normal, the polar vortex became weaker and caused extreme and harsh winter weather in Finland around a month later. Conversely, high geomagnetic activity strengthened the polar vortex to keep it more tightly wound, inducing warmer winter temperatures about a month later as well. The effects were only seen in winters when stratospheric winds traveling over the equator blew in a certain direction.
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Traditionally, she said, it was assumed that our rapidly varying space weather has no influence on the atmosphere on time scales like seasonal weather. But the new study shows that drivers from space, including auroral currents and energetic particle precipitation, are important factors to consider when understanding Earth’s weather and climate.
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“This would indicate that we could use long-term space weather (or solar activity) predictions to anticipate electric power consumption needs, which would be immensely helpful for the power industry,” said Pulkkinen, who is a space physics professor at the University of Michigan.
The authors agree the findings could help improve weather models and forecasts further in advance, as current weather forecasts are only somewhat reliable weeks out. Six months ahead of time, Asikainen and his team correctly predicted the breakup of the polar vortex this winter season, using statistical models to gauge geomagnetic activity and determine the probability of changes in the stratosphere.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/03/23/northern-lights-aurora-energy-winter/Electricity consumption in Finland influenced by climate effects of energetic particle precipitation
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-47605-8It is known that electricity consumption in many cold Northern countries depends greatly on prevailing outdoor temperatures especially during the winter season. On the other hand, recent research has demonstrated that solar wind driven energetic particle precipitation from space into the polar atmosphere can influence the stratospheric polar vortex and tropospheric weather patterns during winter. These changes are significant, e.g., in Northern Europe, especially in Finland. In this study we demonstrate that geomagnetic activity, as a proxy of energetic particle precipitation, significantly influences Finland’s average temperature and total wintertime electricity consumption in Finland. This influence is only seen when the prevailing equatorial stratospheric winds, so called QBO winds, are easterly. The results demonstrate a previously unrecognized societal influence of space weather, and imply that long-term energy consumption forecasts could potentially be improved by considering long-term space weather predictions.
