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vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #200 on: December 05, 2023, 10:30:17 PM »
NOAA forecasts quicker, stronger peak of solar activity
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/noaa-forecasts-quicker-stronger-peak-solar-activity



NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issued a revised prediction for solar activity during Solar Cycle 25 that concludes solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than that predicted by an expert panel in December 2019. The updated prediction now calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak between January and October of 2024, with a maximum sunspot number between 137 and 173.

The prediction marks the debut of SWPC’s experimental Updated Solar Cycle Prediction Product on the Space Weather Prediction Testbed website. The website offers SWPC partners and customers the opportunity to provide feedback on the product before it is fully integrated into SWPC operations. During this time, the product will be updated monthly to provide an accurate, up-to-date prediction for the progression of Solar Cycle 25, which began in 2019.

See also: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2250.msg373751.html#msg373751

and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2250.msg295451.html#msg295451
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vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #201 on: December 11, 2023, 02:54:16 PM »
Rail Industry Urged to Consider Safety Risks of Space Qeather
https://techxplore.com/news/2023-12-rail-industry-urged-safety-space.html



Train accidents could be caused by solar storms switching signaling from red to green according to new research examining the impact of space weather.

Solar storms can trigger powerful magnetic disturbances on Earth, creating geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which could potentially interfere with electricity transmission and distribution grids.

A team led by Ph.D. researcher Cameron Patterson and Professor Jim Wild from Lancaster University modeled how GICs flowed through the track circuits of AC electrified lines powered with overhead cables

Using two routes—the Preston to Lancaster section of the West Coast Main Line, and the Glasgow to Edinburgh line—the team modeled how GICs induced in the rails could cause rail signaling to malfunction.

There are more than 50,000 signaling track circuits in the UK, where the signal is controlled by an electrical circuit between the rails.

Physics Ph.D. researcher Cameron Patterson said, "Crucially, our research suggests that space weather is able to flip a signal in either direction, turning a red signal green or a green signal red. This is obviously very significant from a safety perspective.

"By building a computer model of the signaling track circuits using realistic specifications for the various components of the system, we found that space weather events capable of triggering faults in these track circuits are expected in the UK every few decades."

Cameron's earlier research in the journal Space Weather explored what is known in the industry as "right side" failures, where the signal is switched from green to red.

This is a fail-safe scenario but the converse "wrong side" failures—when the signal goes from red to green—are much more hazardous.

This latest study, also in Space Weather, shows that "wrong side" failures could occur at a lower geoelectric field strength than for "right side" failures, meaning a weaker geomagnetic storm could more easily trigger "wrong side" failures.

It was estimated that, for the lines studied, "wrong side" failures could occur due to a geomagnetic storm with a frequency of about one or two decades.

The analysis was also performed for once-in-a-century extreme event, and it was shown that it could potentially cause many malfunctions of both types throughout the lines in both directions of travel, depending on the number of trains on the line at that time.

Modeling "Wrong Side" Failures Caused by Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Electrified Railway Signalling Systems in the UK, Space Weather (2023)
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vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #202 on: December 15, 2023, 01:57:43 AM »
Aurora Alert: X2.8-Class - Strongest Flare of the Current Solar Cycle:
https://spaceweather.com/

Sunspot 3514 erupted on Dec. 14th (1702 UT), producing a strong X2.8-class solar flare. This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

https://spaceweather.com/images2023/14dec23/x3_teal_anim2.gif

Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Americas: blackout map. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 30 minutes after the flare.

It's too soon to know for sure, but this explosion probably launched a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) with an Earth-directed component. The US Air Force is reporting a Type II solar radio burst, which typically comes from the leading edge of a CME. Based on the drift rate of the radio burst, the emerging CME's velocity could exceed 2100 km/s (4.7 million mph).

-----------------------------------------------------------

SUNSPOT REGION PRODUCES X2.8 FLARE, LARGEST SINCE SEP 10, 2017
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/sunspot-region-produces-x28-flare-largest-sep-10-2017



This is likely one of the largest solar radio events ever recorded. Radio communication interference with aircraft were reported by multiple NWS Center Weather Service Units (CWSU) co-located at FAA facilities. These impacts were felt from one end of the Nation to the other. Additionally, SWPC is analyzing a possible Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with this flare. Continue to monitor our web page for the latest information and updates.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/



https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/strongest-solar-flare-solar-cycle-25
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #203 on: January 11, 2024, 02:35:18 PM »
Something Wicked This Way Comes

The Earthside of the sun is mostly quiet however a more active region might be lurking around the corner. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory just saw a huge plume of plasma fly up from behind the sun's eastern limb:

The blast site is hidden from view. It could be linked to an active farside sunspot group. If so, the sun's rotation will turn it to face Earth later this week

There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #204 on: February 09, 2024, 06:17:47 PM »


MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE (UPDATED): An S1-class radiation storm is underway following a strong X3.4-class solar flare today at 1314 UT. Energetic particles raining down on Earth's upper atmosphere are causing a polar cap absorption (PCA) event; shortwave radios inside the Arctic Circle may not be working. The source of the flare was located just behind the sun's southwestern limb. That means the partially eclipsed flare was even bigger than its nominal X3.4 rating. Stay tuned for updates

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

Renerpho

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #205 on: February 23, 2024, 01:03:52 AM »
An X6.37 flare has just erupted -- the strongest Solar flare in more than 20 years, and one of the strongest ever observed overall.

That makes three X-class flares within the last 24 hours (the other two both being X2). Looks like Region 3590 is quite angry!

There are reports of widespread cellphone outages; not yet clear if they are related to the Solar flares, but they might be.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/solarcycle25/2024/02/22/strong-solar-flare-erupts-from-sun-10/
https://twitter.com/spacewxwatch/status/1760806927167017337



EDIT: The cellphone outage was not caused by the Solar flare. It's just a coincidence.
https://twitter.com/RyanJFrench/status/1760690840656286048
« Last Edit: February 23, 2024, 08:44:12 AM by Renerpho »
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

morganism

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #206 on: March 23, 2024, 09:58:10 PM »
Northern Lights slash a surprising amount of winter energy bills. Here’s why.  (sunspots and QBO)

High aurora activity can cause temperatures to rise and decrease energy consumption, according to a study conducted in Finland

(...)
But the new study is the first to show how this space weather can effect electricity consumption on Earth.

While the sun can influence Earth’s temperatures with its ultraviolet radiation, its stream of energetic particles can also affect other aspects of our weather system — including if cold blasts of air will escape from the Arctic.
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Nobody knows all the nitty-gritty details yet, but Asikainen said the journey begins where our upper atmosphere meets space. Charged particles from the sun aimed at Earth can temporarily disturb the protective magnetic bubble surrounding our planet called the magnetosphere. Solar particles can travel along Earth’s magnetic field lines into our upper atmosphere, where it excites molecules and releases photons of light that we see as an aurora.

The precipitating particles that cause auroras, he said, leave their energy high in the atmosphere and lead to the creation of molecules like nitric oxides. These molecules last a very long time in the dark polar atmosphere during winter and can move very slowly — over a span of weeks to a month — to our stratosphere where the ozone layer is. Here, the molecules can destroy ozone, which helps regulate our planet’s temperature.

Ozone absorbs ultraviolet radiation from the sun and infrared radiation coming up from lower in the atmosphere. Changes in ozone, Asikainen said, influence the temperature of the polar stratosphere. In the polar stratosphere, ozone loss is associated with cooling of the stratosphere — strengthening swirling cold winds known as the polar vortex.
(snip)
In the study, the team analyzed decades of geomagnetic activity to discern any connections between auroras, winter temperatures and electricity consumption.

They found that when geomagnetic activity was lower than normal, the polar vortex became weaker and caused extreme and harsh winter weather in Finland around a month later. Conversely, high geomagnetic activity strengthened the polar vortex to keep it more tightly wound, inducing warmer winter temperatures about a month later as well. The effects were only seen in winters when stratospheric winds traveling over the equator blew in a certain direction.
(snip)
Traditionally, she said, it was assumed that our rapidly varying space weather has no influence on the atmosphere on time scales like seasonal weather. But the new study shows that drivers from space, including auroral currents and energetic particle precipitation, are important factors to consider when understanding Earth’s weather and climate.
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“This would indicate that we could use long-term space weather (or solar activity) predictions to anticipate electric power consumption needs, which would be immensely helpful for the power industry,” said Pulkkinen, who is a space physics professor at the University of Michigan.

The authors agree the findings could help improve weather models and forecasts further in advance, as current weather forecasts are only somewhat reliable weeks out. Six months ahead of time, Asikainen and his team correctly predicted the breakup of the polar vortex this winter season, using statistical models to gauge geomagnetic activity and determine the probability of changes in the stratosphere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/03/23/northern-lights-aurora-energy-winter/


Electricity consumption in Finland influenced by climate effects of energetic particle precipitation

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-47605-8

It is known that electricity consumption in many cold Northern countries depends greatly on prevailing outdoor temperatures especially during the winter season. On the other hand, recent research has demonstrated that solar wind driven energetic particle precipitation from space into the polar atmosphere can influence the stratospheric polar vortex and tropospheric weather patterns during winter. These changes are significant, e.g., in Northern Europe, especially in Finland. In this study we demonstrate that geomagnetic activity, as a proxy of energetic particle precipitation, significantly influences Finland’s average temperature and total wintertime electricity consumption in Finland. This influence is only seen when the prevailing equatorial stratospheric winds, so called QBO winds, are easterly. The results demonstrate a previously unrecognized societal influence of space weather, and imply that long-term energy consumption forecasts could potentially be improved by considering long-term space weather predictions.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #207 on: May 08, 2024, 10:24:17 PM »
THIS SUNSPOT IS HUGE: Sunspot AR3664 has grown so large, it is now rivals the great Carrington sunspot of 1859 in size and visual appearance. To illustrate their similarity, Carrington's famous sketch (to scale) has been added to a NASA picture of today's sun:



How big is AR3664? Sprawling almost 200,000 km from end to end, it is 15 times wider than Earth. You can see AR3664 through ordinary eclipse glasses with no magnification at all. Moreover, it is easy to project an image of this sunspot onto the sidewalk or a white screen just as Carrington did in the 19th century.

Carrington's sunspot is famous because in August and Sept. 1859 it emitted a series of intense solar flares and CMEs. The resulting geomagnetic storms set fire to telegraph offices and sparked auroras from Cuba to Hawaii. The "Carrington Event" has since become a touchstone of space weather in pop culture, with headlines stoking fears of an "internet apocalypse" if it repeats. Recent studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we're overdue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event



https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/large-and-complex-sunspot-groups-lead-increased-solar-flare-chances
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

Renerpho

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #208 on: May 10, 2024, 06:55:37 AM »
For comparison, the largest sunspot ever recorded (AR 14886, on 7 April 1947), measured about 400,000 km from end to end, covering about 6,100 millionths of the Solar disk.

I haven't seen a number yet for the current group, but my guess is it's around 1,500-2,000.

Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #209 on: May 10, 2024, 01:43:30 PM »
SWPC ISSUES ITS FIRST G4 WATCH SINCE 2005
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/swpc-issues-its-first-g4-watch-2005



On Thursday, May 9, 2024, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch. At least five earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed and expected to arrive as early as midday Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday, May 12, 2024. Several strong flares have been observed over the past few days and were associated with a large and magnetically complex sunspot cluster (NOAA region 3664), which is 16 times the diameter of Earth



https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
https://www.spaceweather.com/
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

SteveMDFP

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #210 on: May 10, 2024, 02:16:59 PM »
SWPC ISSUES ITS FIRST G4 WATCH SINCE 2005
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/swpc-issues-its-first-g4-watch-2005

On Thursday, May 9, 2024, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch. At least five earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed and expected to arrive as early as midday Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday, May 12, 2024. Several strong flares have been observed over the past few days and were associated with a large and magnetically complex sunspot cluster (NOAA region 3664), which is 16 times the diameter of Earth

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
https://www.spaceweather.com/

Thanks for the heads-up.  A once in 19 years magnitude event is definitely worth an alert to the community here.  I'm annoyed by the noaa site.  Is "midday" going by EDT or UTC?  Both timezones are in use on that site. 

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #211 on: May 10, 2024, 03:03:00 PM »
I think they're talking about EDT, one hour from now.

---------------------------------------------------

Update

NOAA space weather forecasters have observed at least seven coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the sun, with impacts expected to arrive on Earth as early as mid-day Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday, May 11, 2024.

Quote
"This is an unusual and potentially historic event.

Clinton Wallace, Director, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center

NOAA is calling this an unusual event, pointing out that the flares seem to be associated with a sunspot that’s 16 times the diameter of Earth. An extreme geomagnetic storm in 2003 took out power in Sweden and damaged power transformers in South Africa.

NOAA already has alerted operators of power plants and spacecraft in orbit to take precautions.

... “As far as the worst situation expected here at Earth, that’s tough to say and I wouldn’t want to speculate on that,” said NOAA space weather forecaster Shawn Dahl. “However, severe level is pretty extraordinary, It’s a very rare event to happen.”

The most intense solar storm in recorded history, in 1859, prompted auroras in central America and possibly even Hawaii. “That's an extreme-level event," Dahl said. “We are not anticipating that” but it could come close.

https://www.noaa.gov/stories/forecasters-issue-geomagnetic-storm-watch-for-may-11
« Last Edit: May 10, 2024, 06:11:15 PM by vox_mundi »
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #212 on: May 10, 2024, 08:56:26 PM »
G4 CONDITIONS OBSERVED!
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-conditions-observed



The first of six CMEs hurled toward Earth by giant sunspot AR3664 just hit our planet's magnetic field. The impact on May 10th at 1645 UT jolted magnetometers around the world (e.g., 108 nT in Boulder CO) and sparked a severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storm. This storm is underway now. More CMEs are following close behind (see below) and their arrival could extend the storm into the weekend.

... G4 conditions were observed by SWPC around 12:37 p.m. EDT today and significant to severe geomagnetic storming is likely to continue.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
https://www.spaceweather.com/
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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zenith

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #213 on: May 10, 2024, 09:02:43 PM »
cool. a big ole blackout could calm things down on planet earth.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #214 on: May 11, 2024, 12:17:56 AM »
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

Approaching Extreme (G5) level

---------------------------------------------------------------



---------------------------------------------------------------

EXTREME [G5] GEOMAGNETIC STORM--NOW!
https://www.spaceweather.com/

 The biggest geomagnetic storm in almost 20 years is underway now. It has reached category G5--an extreme event. Sky watchers with dark skies may be able to see and photograph auroras even at low latitudes. Get away from city lights and look at the sky.

------------------------------------------------



Severe space weather can jeopardize power grids, according to NOAA, whose alert this week said to expect “possible widespread voltage control problems” and that “some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid.”
« Last Edit: May 11, 2024, 02:57:07 AM by vox_mundi »
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

The Walrus

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #215 on: May 11, 2024, 05:16:11 AM »
Fabulous light show here tonight.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2024, 01:06:32 PM by The Walrus »

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #216 on: May 11, 2024, 05:58:07 AM »
Where's here?

Pictures?

------------------------------------------------

YET ANOTHER X-CLASS FLARE!
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/yet-another-x-class-flare



X-5.4
« Last Edit: May 11, 2024, 06:24:09 AM by vox_mundi »
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

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gerontocrat

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #217 on: May 11, 2024, 08:16:28 AM »
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

My daughter was out last night here, at 59 North on the N Coast of Scotland,  with a friend who has been aurora hunting for over 20 years. This was the first time he was able to see the aurora in its fullest glory even when looking due South.

They are asleep now so no photos yet.
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HapHazard

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #218 on: May 11, 2024, 09:25:05 AM »
I took a few quick snapshots with my old phone, no great night exposure settings or anything.

It was easily bright enough to read a book, and the entire sky was filled. It was like swimming in it.
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Freegrass

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #219 on: May 11, 2024, 09:47:02 AM »
Damn, I missed it.  >:(
But we can see it again this night, right?
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

gerontocrat

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #220 on: May 11, 2024, 04:27:11 PM »
Damn, I missed it.  >:(
But we can see it again this night, right?
You may be lucky in the Netherlands - if the K-Index is at 8 or above until after dark tonight

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #221 on: May 11, 2024, 06:30:27 PM »
How are the current conditions going to affect the ozone?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-40129-1
And how do the Hunga eruption / ozone effects plus the new ozone reductions from large solar flares affect ozone in combination?

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #222 on: May 11, 2024, 06:39:51 PM »


Giant sunspot AR3664 unleashed another X-flare today (May 11th @ 0139 UT)--its strongest yet. The X5.8-class explosion produced a significant CME with an Earth-directed component:



The snowy speckles in this SOHO coronagraph movie are caused by energetic particles hitting the spacecraft's camera. The particles are being accelerated toward the spacecraft (and toward Earth) by shock waves in the emerging CME. They are a sign that it is a potent storm cloud with an Earth-directed component.

This CME could reach Earth on May 13th, adding new power to the ongoing geomagnetic storm.

---------------------------------------------------------------

 (Update: We now have a credible report of auroras in Puerto Rico!)

Other low latitude sightings of note include St John’s, Florida (30.1° N); Ocala, Florida (29.2° N); Shallowater, Texas (33.7° N); Sedona, Arizona (34.9° N); Cave Creek, Arizona (33.8° N); San Antonio, Texas (29.4° N); Augusta, Georgia (33.5° N); Montezuma, Georgia (32.3° N); and Auburn, Alabama (32.6° N).

https://www.spaceweather.com/

Many people around the world have just seen auroras for the first time in their lives. This includes residents of the Florida Keys. Ron Jarrell sends this photo from Big Pine Key at latitude 24.7° N:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2024/10may24/floridakeys2_strip.jpg

Seeing auroras in the Florida Keys is extraordinary, but the light show didn't stop there. Sky watchers saw the sky turn red across the Carribean. These pictures were taken from the southeast coast of Puerto Rico at latitude 18.1° N:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2024/11may24/puertorico_strip.jpg

"The last events on record when auroras were seen from Puerto Rico were in 1859 and 1921, so tonight was an historic event", says Eddie Irizarry from the Sociedad de Astronomia del Caribe (Astronomical Society of the Caribbean).

The low latitude of these sightings would seem to place this storm among the greatest aurora displays of the past 500 years.

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2021/04/29/great-aurora-storms/
« Last Edit: May 11, 2024, 09:27:23 PM by vox_mundi »
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

Dundee

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #223 on: May 11, 2024, 08:02:19 PM »
Sunset to sunrise time lapse, May 10-11.


vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #224 on: May 11, 2024, 09:24:25 PM »
SEVERE AND EXTREME (G4-G5) GEOMAGNETIC STORMS LIKELY ON 12 MAY 2024
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-and-extreme-g4-g5-geomagnetic-storms-likely-12-may-2024

published: Saturday, May 11, 2024 17:54 UTC

Another series of CMEs associated with flare activity from Region 3664 over the past several days are expected to merge and arrive at Earth by midday (UTC) on 12 May. Periods of G4-G5 (Severe-Extreme) geomagnetic storms are likely to follow the arrival of these CMEs. 

There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #225 on: May 12, 2024, 07:07:01 PM »
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

Freegrass

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #226 on: May 12, 2024, 07:43:51 PM »
I've been following it here.
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral-oval.html

Activity is increasing again. It's reached England, and is close to the Netherlands now.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2024, 12:02:14 AM by Freegrass »
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #227 on: May 15, 2024, 08:59:15 PM »
Solar Storms Made GPS Tractors Miss Their Mark At the Worst Time for Farmers
https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/12/24154779/solar-storms-farmer-gps-john-deer
https://www.404media.co/solar-storm-knocks-out-tractor-gps-systems-during-peak-planting-season/



Farmers had to stop planting their crops over the weekend as the strongest solar storms since 2003 battered the GPS satellites used by self-driving tractors, according to 404 Media. And the issues struck just days ahead of a crucial date for planting corn, one of the US’s biggest crops.

For parts of the Midwest, planting corn after May 15th can lower crop yields, according to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, particularly as the end of the month nears. Organic farmer Tom Schwarz told 404 Media he chose to delay planting on his organic farm because of the GPS issues but that bad weather in the forecast may delay things further. He said he uses the centimeter-level accuracy of the GPS system to plant his rows so close to his tractor’s path that a human being can’t “steer fast enough or well enough to not kill the crop.”

LandMark Implement, which owns John Deere dealerships in Kansas and Nebraska, warned farmers on Friday to turn off a feature that uses a fixed receiver to correct tractors’ paths. LandMark updated its post Saturday, saying it expects that when farmers tend crops later, “rows won’t be where the AutoPath lines think they are” and that it would be “difficult - if not impossible” for the self-driving tractor feature to work in fields planted while the GPS systems were hampered.

https://landmarkimp.com/news/news/blog/geomagnetic-storm-affecting-gps-signals--may-2024/

... We are seeing GPS issues across our entire service area that are affecting RTK and all other levels of GPS. We are currently trying to determine a resolution.

Please be advised that there is significant solar flare and space weather activity currently affecting GPS and RTK networks. This severe geomagnetic storm is the worst since 2005 and is forecasted to continue throughout the weekend.

We have found that the best course of action at this time is to shut off RTK and use a grace period for SF2/SF3. This will eliminate the conflicting corrections that the machine is receiving from the base station due to the geomagnetic storm. GPS accuracy will still likely be reduced due to the storms.

... Yesterday, we sent out a text message advising customers to turn off their RTK and use a grace period of SF2 or SF3.  We believe that the SF2 and SF3 accuracy is also extremely compromised as well due to this storm.  Due to the way the RTK network works, the base stations were sending out corrections that have been affected by the geomagnetic storm and were causing drastic shifts in the field and even some heading changes that were drastic. Because SF2 and SF3 do not receive all of these corrections, those signals weren’t affected as much, but we do suspect that the pass-to-pass accuracy is extremely degraded while still allowing customers to run.  We strongly advise you to keep an eye on your guess rows.  We experienced a pass where the guess row was 10” wide and the receiver was showing a PDOP value of 1.1 which would typically mean good accuracy. This can also affect your section control, but we don't expect it to create any excessively large overlaps or skips - however, the situation at hand is definitely not ideal.

The effects of this storm were more detrimental to the StarFire 3000 and 6000 receivers due to those models only having access to 2 satellite constellations.  The StarFire 7000 and 7500s have access to 4 satellite constellations which allowed them to fight through these issues better, but they still lost accuracy.  Upgrading to a StarFire 7000 or 7500 will provide an improvement, but is not a cure-all.

To be clear, this isn’t a problem with our RTK network.  The RTK was affected more due to its ability to have more corrections and it is a higher accuracy system anyway.  More corrections coming in that were “bad” created more inaccuracy than we saw in the other systems.  The storm has affected all brands of GPS, not solely John Deere.

When you head back into these fields to side dress, spray, cultivate, harvest, etc. over the next several months, we expect that the rows won't be where the AutoPath lines think they are.  This will only affect the fields that are planted during times of reduced accuracy. It is most likely going to be difficult - if not impossible - to make AutoPath work in these fields as the inaccuracy is most likely inconsistent.

There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #228 on: May 16, 2024, 04:12:25 AM »
THE FLARES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES: A new source of solar flares is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb. Today at 1438 UT, it emitted a dramatic X3-class explosion, shown here in a movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory



The source of this flare will rotate over the sun's limb this week, making future explosions more squarely Earth-directed and potentially hurling CMEs in our direction.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/another-x-flare-another-region



REGION 3664 REMAINS RELENTLESS
published: Wednesday, May 15, 2024 14:25 UTC
Region 3664, now over the southwest limb, produced another X-class flare at 0837 UTC. Significant magnetic looping remains visible above the region, suggesting additional strong flares are possible despite its far-side location.

There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #229 on: July 28, 2024, 11:10:08 PM »
Auroras coming
 https://spaceweather.com/

A series of M-class flares over the weekend hurled multiple CMEs toward Earth, as many as four or five. According to a NOAA model, the first two CMEs are merging to form a single Cannibal CME. Strong G3-class geomagnetic storms (Auroras) are possible when it reaches Earth on July 30th.



The Cannibal CME is clearing the way for perhaps 2 to 3 more CMEs following behind it. SOHO coronagraphs show a wagon-train of clouds leaving the sun on July 28th:

The first and most potent of these CMEs was launched by an M9.9-class solar flare from sunspot complex AR3765-67 on July 28th (0157 UT): movie. The CME will fly into a void created by the earlier Cannibal CME. With little interplanetary material to slow it down, the storm cloud should reach Earth no later than July 31st. A preliminary NASA model supports this forecast.

Even if the Cannibal CME fails to spark a strong geomagnetic storm on July 30th, the arrival of more CMEs on July 31st could push storm levels to category G3 (Strong) or beyond. This would set the stage for mid-latitude auroras visible from Europe and the USA.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts-dashboard

------------------------------------------------------





Update: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS HIGH: Sunspot complex AR3765-67 is crackling with strong flares--and they're getting stronger. An impulsive X1.5 flare this morning at 0237 UT caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over Japan, southeast Asia and Australia (map). More X-flares are in the offing as the sunspot complex turns directly toward Earth later today.

These CMEs are flying into a void created by the earlier Cannibal CME. With little interplanetary material to slow them down, the storm clouds should reach Earth no later than July 31st, potentially intensifying any geomagnetic storm already underway. If the G3 forecast is correct, auroras will be visible at mid-latitudes across Europe and the USA on July 30-31.

« Last Edit: July 29, 2024, 10:08:11 PM by vox_mundi »
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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« Last Edit: August 13, 2024, 04:28:09 PM by vox_mundi »
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

vox_mundi

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #231 on: October 10, 2024, 10:35:41 PM »
Auroras - look up! ...

G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming In Progress
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-severe-geomagnetic-storming-observed-0



G4 conditions were reached at 12:57 EDT

A G4 or greater Geomagnetic Storm Watch remains in effect for today and Friday.

The geomagnetic storm, which is expected to last through today and tomorrow, October 11t.  There is still a possibility that we could reach G5 (Extreme) levels.

This storm could impact ongoing recovery efforts for Hurricanes Helene and Milton in several critical ways:

    Communications: Systems that depend on low-Earth orbit satellites or High-Frequency communication may experience disruptions.

    Power grids: The storm could put additional stress on power grids already weakened by the hurricanes.

    GPS services: Navigation systems, especially those relied upon in disaster relief, may be degraded.

    SWPC has already updated FEMA and several state agencies involved in recovery operations.

When skies are clear, the aurora (Northern Lights) could be visible as far south as Alabama and northern California tonight

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

https://spaceweather.com/
There are 3 classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus

dnem

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Re: Solar cycle
« Reply #232 on: October 11, 2024, 03:51:40 PM »
We had a nice display right in the city last night at about 7:20 eastern time. Baltimore, MD USA 39.3 deg N Latitude.