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Date of 2018 JAXA SIE maximum will be...

March 2-4
16 (23.5%)
March 5-7
10 (14.7%)
March 8-10
8 (11.8%)
March 11-13
9 (13.2%)
March 14-16
10 (14.7%)
March 17-19
3 (4.4%)
March 20-22
5 (7.4%)
March 23-25
3 (4.4%)
March 26-28
3 (4.4%)
March 29-31
1 (1.5%)

Total Members Voted: 65

Voting closed: March 06, 2018, 09:04:03 PM

Author Topic: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?  (Read 32904 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #50 on: March 06, 2018, 05:19:06 PM »
I said between Mar 1 and March 31 - I win?

Look at the poll. Do you see 'March 1-31' anywhere?  ::) ;D

After hours of deep thought, I have formulated my reply.

Don't confuse the issue with facts.

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Dharma Rupa

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #51 on: March 06, 2018, 07:31:30 PM »
I said between Mar 1 and March 31 - I win?

Look at the poll. Do you see 'March 1-31' anywhere?  ::) ;D

After hours of deep thought, I have formulated my reply.

Don't confuse the issue with facts.


You could have used "yes I do" as that seems to be the norm lately.

aperson

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #52 on: March 07, 2018, 05:32:26 AM »
March 6th is 13.61 (-0.02), now 0.15 below maximum and the 5th consecutive decrease.

What are the requirements for opening the melting season thread? Are they the same as deciding this poll? :D
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #53 on: March 07, 2018, 06:26:02 AM »
Neven is probably awaiting the forecasted colder temps.
 
A more interesting question, will it be enough to refreeze those 147480 km² lost since March 1?
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #54 on: March 07, 2018, 12:19:04 PM »
I wanted to choose None of the above but it wasn't an option, so I just kept on lurking...

;D 8)
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oren

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #55 on: March 07, 2018, 03:04:02 PM »
Welcome HapHazard!

Gray-Wolf

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #56 on: March 07, 2018, 04:40:19 PM »
Neven is probably awaiting the forecasted colder temps.
 
A more interesting question, will it be enough to refreeze those 147480 km² lost since March 1?

Well most of the pole is in sunlight now so we can check out most of the ice and our side ( Atlantic) seems to be well mangled and spreading? We are seeing upticks in Barentsz/Greenland but this is just ice spreading into ice free waters as it eases apart?

Our recent snow episode in the UK showed us that 2m temps can be below freezing with a high windchill but that the sun will still take the snow. With the sun rising any clear slots will now help warm the dark waters below ( don't forget the slightest ripple allows low angle sun to approach at a much higher angle? like growing grapes on south facing slopes in more northern regions?)even if just the top skim where ice wants to form?

If we look back to 2012 we can see in Bering the type of conditions needed for growth in peripheral areas.I haven't seen such forecast in peripheral areas just plots showing central areas cooling?

In central areas it will just thicken existing ice.
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Hautbois

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #57 on: March 07, 2018, 10:41:09 PM »
Beware the false Max!!

Just for laughs ??? I thought I'd look over the last 10 years to see how often there was a 'cheeky peak' that might have got people thinking 'we've hit maximum', followed by a dip, and then followed by another peak that turned out to be the real maximum.

There were 5 that did that, and a sixth that nearly did, but not quite.

2008: 14.75m sq.km on day 62, lost 76k, then gained 100k.
2010: 14.651 on day 68, then lost 180k, then gained 217k
2011: 14.108 on day 67, then lost 181k, then gained 200k
2013: 14.513 on day 60 (March 1st, people), then lost 207k, then gained 217k.
2014: 14.255 on day 65, then lost 240k, then gained 433k as if to say 'haha just messin' with ya'

The 'not quite' year was 2012 - it dropped 199k, then gained 183k, so peak 2 wasn't quite the max in the end.

The 10 years before that were less tricksy. There were only three false max years; 1999 and 2003 stand out, overturning drops  of 307k and 258k respectively from an initial false max.



(Now, what was I meant to be doing....)

Neven

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #58 on: March 07, 2018, 11:50:40 PM »
I've been bitten a few times by those cheeky peaks in my own cheeks, which is why I voted 17-19 March this time. But I didn't expect the drop we've just witnessed. Could well be like 2012.
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #59 on: March 08, 2018, 08:11:57 AM »
What's the hurry? Let's just wait a few more days and let the aftermath of the recent SSW play out. Statistics are not for the future.
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #60 on: March 08, 2018, 09:16:52 AM »
Neven is probably awaiting the forecasted colder temps.
 
A more interesting question, will it be enough to refreeze those 147480 km² lost since March 1?

Well most of the pole is in sunlight now so we can check out most of the ice and our side ( Atlantic) seems to be well mangled and spreading? We are seeing upticks in Barentsz/Greenland but this is just ice spreading into ice free waters as it eases apart?

Our recent snow episode in the UK showed us that 2m temps can be below freezing with a high windchill but that the sun will still take the snow. With the sun rising any clear slots will now help warm the dark waters below ( don't forget the slightest ripple allows low angle sun to approach at a much higher angle? like growing grapes on south facing slopes in more northern regions?)even if just the top skim where ice wants to form?

If we look back to 2012 we can see in Bering the type of conditions needed for growth in peripheral areas.I haven't seen such forecast in peripheral areas just plots showing central areas cooling?

In central areas it will just thicken existing ice.
Sorry, didn't see your comment the first time.
Sure, at my latitude below 60°N during March, the sun will even sublimate ice during daytime allthough we've had -20°C at night (like in 2013). But from 70°N and up, the sun is still at a very low angle, direct radiation is zero above 84°N.
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magnamentis

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #61 on: March 08, 2018, 11:05:32 PM »
gulf of st. lawrence is currently showing quite well what i've been trying to say earlier.

even though temps are still around or below zero C ice is shrinking.

i don't know enough to say why, warmer waters from the river (great lakes) or insolation or both but in march ice is shrinking in many places even though when looking at temp. maps as a layman one would guess that it's cold enough for the ice to stay or even to grow.

i'm sure this can be explained by experts, for me it's surprising each year (spring) again.

what this certainly means is that growth on a large scale is mostly out of question, at least not much more/longer than to produce a small blip on the relevant charts.

further the sun's angle is increasing at a very hight speed so to say during the 8 weeks around equinox.

Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #62 on: March 09, 2018, 08:13:49 AM »
This is where the extent should be in seven days to make this poll a bit more interesting.
If it does, Neven will be happy. ;)
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #63 on: March 09, 2018, 03:19:19 PM »
gulf of st. lawrence is currently showing quite well what i've been trying to say earlier.

even though temps are still around or below zero C ice is shrinking.

i don't know enough to say why,
In the Gulf, to a large extent, the water is warm enough that it takes a cold snap to form ice at the surface, but the base of the surface layer of ice,it is always melting, so once the air temperature rises to near zero, the melting from below exceeds the freezing from above, resulting in the melting you observe. We see the same phenomenon on the Great Lakes- until the lake does its over turning thing, equalizing the temperature all the way down, ice does not last past even brief thaws. By the end of winter, many large lakes have equalized so the ice thickens and lasts well into spring.

Juan C. García

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #64 on: March 09, 2018, 07:03:59 PM »
This is where the extent should be in seven days to make this poll a bit more interesting.
If it does, Neven will be happy. ;)

Is going to be a tug of war, between a colder weather that it is forecasted on the next week, and the warm waters coming from the Oceans.

But anyway, next week we will be with an anomaly of -1°C to -3°C, according to GFS shown in CCI-Reanalyzer, so at the end, Neven can be right, waiting to confirm the maximum ASI on this freezing season.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2018, 07:44:25 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #65 on: March 09, 2018, 08:17:36 PM »
NSIDC Extent: There is not a lot going on in the CAB and the Hudson at the moment.

Whoops dates are from 22nd Feb to 8 March
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #66 on: March 10, 2018, 08:05:07 AM »
This is where the extent should be in seven days to make this poll a bit more interesting.
If it does, Neven will be happy. ;)

Is going to be a tug of war, between a colder weather that it is forecasted on the next week, and the warm waters coming from the Oceans.

But anyway, next week we will be with an anomaly of -1°C to -3°C, according to GFS shown in CCI-Reanalyzer, so at the end, Neven can be right, waiting to confirm the maximum ASI on this freezing season.
Yes JCG, we might see another week of colder temps. I almost never use ClimateReanalyzer, primarily these two:
http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?lng=eng
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=ecm&var=1&time=0&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24
Colder temps following the SSW has been my anticipation all along, but guessing the date is more like whacking at a piñata. :)
Still is a bit of fun though.

JAXA numbers are secretive today, seems to be a standard during interesting periods...
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #67 on: March 11, 2018, 10:30:50 AM »
Uni Bremen AMSR2 sea ice extent reached a new maximum yesterday:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png

The same is true for Uni Hamburg extent:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-all-cmpare.png

It remains to be seen whether JAXA extent will follow suit.  (No data yet for the past 2 days.)

gerontocrat

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #68 on: March 11, 2018, 03:42:53 PM »
Uni Bremen AMSR2 sea ice extent reached a new maximum yesterday:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png

The same is true for Uni Hamburg extent:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-all-cmpare.png

It remains to be seen whether JAXA extent will follow suit.  (No data yet for the past 2 days.)

NSIDC daily extent failed to oblige - down 16k and 54 k less than its max so far on 5th March
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #69 on: March 11, 2018, 04:48:27 PM »
NSIDC daily extent failed to oblige - down 16k and 54 k less than its max so far on 5th March
Which numbers are you looking at gerontocrat?
This is the one I check:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v3.0.csv

2018 03 01,     14.357
2018 03 02,     14.301
2018 03 03,     14.229
2018 03 04,     14.227
2018 03 05,     14.169
2018 03 06,     14.152
2018 03 07,     14.203
2018 03 08,     14.289
2018 03 09,     14.319
2018 03 10,     14.303
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gerontocrat

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #70 on: March 11, 2018, 05:23:35 PM »
NSIDC daily extent failed to oblige - down 16k and 54 k less than its max so far on 5th March
Which numbers are you looking at gerontocrat?
This is the one I check:

2018 03 01,     14.357
2018 03 02,     14.301
2018 03 03,     14.229
2018 03 04,     14.227
2018 03 05,     14.169
2018 03 06,     14.152
2018 03 07,     14.203
2018 03 08,     14.289
2018 03 09,     14.319
2018 03 10,     14.303

I haven't the faintest idea why I typed 5th March when I was looking at the 1st of March, 54 k greater than current extent.

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #71 on: March 11, 2018, 05:27:15 PM »
No need for that, I just wondered. :)
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ArcticMelt1

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #72 on: March 11, 2018, 07:05:45 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/972888643424497666

Quote
Bering Sea spring 2018 seasonal max ice extent now looks nearly certain to be lowest of record. The largest increase after March 10 is 331,000km². Even if that increase were equaled in next month, this would still be record low.


Juan C. García

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #73 on: March 12, 2018, 04:40:46 AM »
JAXA March 11th,2018:

We have a new 2018 max: 13,780,135 km2.

And next week, the forecast is to have abnormal cold weather on the Arctic (From -1 °C on Tuesday to -2.2 °C on Thursday).

So how are your bets? When will the 2018 maximum be?
And on which figure we will have the max?  ;)
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 04:53:08 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sleepy

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #74 on: March 12, 2018, 05:09:38 AM »
Yeah, a bit odd but the spreadsheet at ADS is not updated with the 11:th, yet.
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #75 on: March 12, 2018, 06:32:09 AM »
I don't have any problem finding the data:

#     m   day           2015             2016                2017              2018
60    3        1        13,827,443   13,924,194     13,802,013     13,759,813
61    3        2        13,798,149   13,880,276     13,787,843     13,736,896
62    3        3       13,738,251   13,824,457     13,813,380     13,729,800
63    3        4        13,688,997     13,789,796     13,829,477     13,690,835
64    3        5        13,664,797     13,792,369     13,858,609     13,629,925
65    3        6        13,660,208     13,796,993     13,878,287     13,612,333
66    3        7        13,659,416     13,858,745     13,866,340     13,609,296
67    3        8        13,649,869     13,921,066     13,818,836     13,628,280
68    3        9        13,629,197     13,898,483     13,770,819     13,660,514
69    3      10        13,623,768     13,855,406     13,742,120     13,740,450
70   3      11        13,648,280     13,871,056     13,781,624     13,780,135

Maybe you need to reload the page...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #76 on: March 12, 2018, 08:51:07 AM »
I see that it's updated via the download options on the newer pages, I'm still using the direct link to this spreadsheet: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/data/graph/plot_extent_n_v2.csv
Still not updated there.
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Neven

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #77 on: March 12, 2018, 09:23:33 AM »
This is why I didn't put in March 1 in the poll.  ;) ;D

But will it beat last year's record low maximum?
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #78 on: March 12, 2018, 09:24:37 AM »
Those who voted for dates March 1 to March 10 can tear up their betting slips and retire weeping to the bar.

It is really cold in the Arctic at the moment.
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #79 on: March 12, 2018, 09:51:57 AM »
I'd like to change my vote ;)

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #80 on: March 12, 2018, 10:01:16 AM »
one of the few times when losing can make you feel better:)

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #81 on: March 12, 2018, 10:07:43 AM »
Now the breakup can begin and rise the extent until equinox (which still is my vote  ;) ::) :D)

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #82 on: March 12, 2018, 11:14:27 AM »
This is why I didn't put in March 1 in the poll.  ;) ;D

But will it beat last year's record low maximum?

There is always April dates, to get everyone to be wrong  ;)

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #83 on: March 12, 2018, 11:37:26 AM »
This is why I didn't put in March 1 in the poll.  ;) ;D

But will it beat last year's record low maximum?

There is always April dates, to get everyone to be wrong  ;)

But that would be lovely!! ;)

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #84 on: March 12, 2018, 09:21:59 PM »
Chart update. It's the world's most sedate rollercoaster.

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #85 on: March 13, 2018, 01:27:58 AM »
Thank you again Hautbois. Great chart.

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #86 on: March 13, 2018, 12:58:09 PM »
What about some ICE?
No updates via ADS today (again), maybe some surrogate NSIDC Daily:

2018 03 01,     14.357
2018 03 02,     14.301
2018 03 03,     14.229
2018 03 04,     14.227
2018 03 05,     14.169
2018 03 06,     14.152
2018 03 07,     14.203
2018 03 08,     14.289
2018 03 09,     14.319
2018 03 10,     14.303
2018 03 11,     14.289
2018 03 12,     14.380
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #87 on: March 14, 2018, 05:03:42 AM »
I hate empty spreadsheets. But March 13 is a new max according to ADS with 13,837,866 km².
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #88 on: March 15, 2018, 06:01:54 AM »
Full service restored at ADS and another max (as JCG already reported in the other poll thread).
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #89 on: March 16, 2018, 04:42:58 AM »
^13,875,677 km².
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #90 on: March 16, 2018, 07:44:24 AM »
^
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Jim Pettit

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #91 on: March 16, 2018, 07:56:15 PM »
If there's only one lesson I've learned from watching the various Arctic metrics over the years, it's that how much earlier or later than average a particular metric's annual maximum occurs has virtually no effect whatsoever on how much higher or lower than average that metric's annual minimum is. Or to put it another way, a late February maximum is no more predictive of a lower-than-normal minimum than an early April maximum means the minimum will be high than normal. The fact is, every year sees maxima that bounce gently along the top of the curve like a child's party balloon skipping across a ceiling. No maximum is a perfect, symmetrical arch, and no minimum is a smoothly beautiful catenary.

Saying all that to say this: I expect this year's extent maximums to be prolonged a bit longer.

After that, look out below...

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #92 on: March 16, 2018, 08:55:11 PM »
I share that idea. Because we can see a reason for the fact that it's not an early maximum. That vortex split left a few places with little ice. And that ice is growing now. But it's probably thin, in combination with a warm arctic winter. Is there normaly a poll for the minimum extent ?

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #93 on: March 17, 2018, 05:21:02 AM »
There are usually several polls for that Alexander.

After that, look out below...
Yep, a slight drop to 13,874,375 km².  :)
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #94 on: March 17, 2018, 09:52:23 AM »
 :D

What a great max this year! Really exciting.  :)
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #95 on: March 17, 2018, 08:52:02 PM »
Looks to me now, based on the ECMWF and GFS models like the max will be on March 21.

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #96 on: March 17, 2018, 08:56:29 PM »
That can't be. I voted 17-19.  ;)
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Juan C. García

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #97 on: March 18, 2018, 05:53:25 AM »
:D

What a great max this year! Really exciting.  :)

Seems that JAXA wants to have us on suspense one more day!  :-\
What a thrill!  ;)

I'm living in Mexico, so good night guys! Or good morning to you!

PS: I having fun thinking that you will look for the JAXA values here...
Not today, but don't blame me!  8)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #98 on: March 18, 2018, 05:59:28 AM »
Good night JCG. A crisp -20°C here this early morning. My air source heat pumps are feeling the strain for once.

ECMWF shows warmer temps coming in over Russia (towards the pole) on the 22:nd. But that's also over the area that has been getting a bit thicker.
Adding this animation here as well, a flip between the 28 and 14 day view from Cryosat that shows some thickening. Especially above 80°N.
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Re: On what date will JAXA daily SIE reach the maximum?
« Reply #99 on: March 18, 2018, 04:57:00 PM »
Neven, you did well. You might still win. There's been a push back in the Barents.

I'm still expecting one more dispersion event in the Okhotsk sea. It covers a large area so a storm that scatters thin ice can cause a substantial blip in the extent numbers while amounting to an event of very little importance over a longer period. The date of the maximum doesn't mean very much in the big picture.