Overdue for a 'monster' spring volume melt?

[Nightvid Cole]

It looks like we haven't really had a warm spring in the Arctic since 2010. Here is the April-June temperature for the region north of 75 degrees latitude:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=Air+Temperature&level=1000&lat1=75&lat2=90&lon1=0&lon2=360&iseas=1&mon1=3&mon2=5&iarea=1&typeout=2&Submit=Create+Timeseries

It is also true that 2010 had the largest spring volume drop on PIOMAS of all time:

https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/grf/piomas-trnd3.png?attachauth=ANoY7cpnGfvdXIX8LPaNeN2TTx4i88IJgME3gaEISrD7kWYWSJVd5tV-ydfcVrf9SCEl1gGtWsFF5TRnxv5uUysZn_vqxQ_VP1LNk6OfFuXqUhDMvBt6t_jPO6SqEbt7dt0gd78wAP7d_3Cw1noBJW27uQ8EZxv6xy_Lffjc4H03QJmz8CBGYPCwz9KAOevGtyYtW9TnywFLHygz3JTssrAYBHzTT9HcD54MxB3NSmoKEO2X5trcoOqOXvoIMCB-3Hp3bmKOleBB&attredirects=0

Since the trend has been for warming springs since at least 1990, this raises the question of whether we are overdue for a monster spring volume melt. Even a spring melt identical to 2010 puts us on the fast track to shattering the 2012 volume minimum. If we have a spring warmer than 2010, it seems that we could approach near ice free conditions in a single year. What gives? 

[oren]

We certainly could have a record low, I think that is true of any of the last few years. This year we are uniqely poised for early losses on the Pacific side. Last year we had record loe PIOMAS volume. Quite soon, it seems the killing blow must come. The big question on everyone's mind is whether these warm autumns and winters cause springs and summers to be cloudy and coolish. It's gonna be interesting.

[Sebastian Jones]

We certainly could have a record low, I think that is true of any of the last few years. This year we are uniqely poised for early losses on the Pacific side. Last year we had record loe PIOMAS volume. Quite soon, it seems the killing blow must come. .... It's gonna be interesting.

Just because it appears we have dodged a bullet the past few years- had we experienced a repeat of 2007 in any year after 2012, we would be poking at a very different situation now- does not mean the bullet is going to find us soon. I live in the boreal forest where forest fires are inevitable. Periodically we have monster fire years. The longer the period after the previous fire year year, the more the forest fuel accumulates and the higher the odds of another monster year. The fact that the periodicity of monster years indicates we are "overdue", does not mean a monster year is more likely this year than last. Same thing for the arctic ocean.We are certain that everything will line up perfectly for a monster melt one year, and that every year that volume decreases and maximum extent falls, it will be easier and easier for the big event to happen. There is no particular reason to think it will happen in 2018. But it could...

[Dharma Rupa]

...The big question on everyone's mind is whether these warm autumns and winters cause springs and summers to be cloudy and coolish. It's gonna be interesting.

I'm inclined to think that summers are going to be cloudy and relatively coolish, but that at some point that isn't going to matter anymore.

The continents are warming slower than the oceans, and everything is warming slower in Summer than in Winter.  (Well...it is retained heat...but the preceding sentence is a good approximation.)

[DavidR]

I have been thinking exactly the reverse, ie. that we will see a slow spring melt at least  as far as extent is concerned.  The seas that are involved in extent loss over spring appear to be in a position that will not lead to dramatic losses but rather the reverse.
 
Bering, particularly with the February losses, will obviously all go but it appears likely it will have a low starting position.

Okhotsk, Hudson and Baffin appear to have been heavily affected by cold winters on the adjacent land areas. I  expect the ice there to be thicker and more resilient than usual leading to a later than usual melt. 

The central basin will probably  regain the 100K deficit is currently has  and see little extent loss till late June or July.

On the other hand Beaufort, Chukchi and Kara, which start to decline in May, could go a little early because of the heat across the Arctic Ocean all winter.

In my estimation March will see extent drift up to 4th or 5th lowest in the rankings where it will sit until May before heading back to close to the lowest in June.

[Archimid]

DavidR,  that sounds like a likely scenario.

[jdallen]

I think the season outcome hinges on two things - ice thickness in the peripheral seas and cloud cover.

If the peripheral seas melt out quickly, the CAB will be extremely vulnerable.  I will be looking for patterns like 2013 - where weather was the only thing that prevented a blowout.

[Alexander555]

I don't have much experiance to predict something at all. And definitely not in the short run, like this spring. But the first pic shows that the water near the ice edge is almost everywhere warmer than normal, from 1 to 4 degree C warmer. The 2th pic shows the temperature of the surface water, near the ice edge, that's between 1 and 5 degree C. So normaly that water is close to zero degree C, and not 1 to 5 degree C like it is today .That sounds like good melting conditions. And the 3th pic tells something about the quality of that ice edge. And that is not looking that fantastic. And maybe the 4th pic is part of the reason. And the quality of their equipment should be good enough to messure that correct. That's a big jump in a short time.

[gerontocrat]

I told my spreadsheet to have a look towards the September minimum. It is a bit odd as maximum not yet quite there. Nevertheless, if one takes extent at March 1 and takes off extent loss in previous years it gives the range of results (if history is any guide)

And the range of results using data from the last 10 years is a September minimum of between 2.4 and 4.6 million km2. You pays your money and you takes your choice. Me ? I ain't buying.

[Archimid]

gerontocrat, once monthly PIOMAS  comes in, do the same thing for volume. That's where it gets scary.

[Metamemesis]

But the first pic shows that the water near the ice edge is almost everywhere warmer than normal, from 1 to 4 degree C warmer...

I believe this is because for the baseline period (1971-2000) those areas close to the ice edge would normally be ice. The fact that those areas are now open would give rise to significant temperature increases compared to basline temperature (i.e. ice).

[gerontocrat]

gerontocrat, once monthly PIOMAS  comes in, do the same thing for volume. That's where it gets scary.

Last year there was a long discussion on when summer volume would become so low that extent would have to drop like a stone to catch up  - i.e. how thin can the ice get until it just has to melt out completely. I don't think spreadsheets are much use on that question. But with 75% of summer minimum volume gone and going down at nearly 2% of 1980 volume per annum, I guess we will find out too soon for comfort (but not this year?)

[FishOutofWater]

"Ovedue" applies to library books, not scientific forecasts. If you have any kind of basis for making a forecast, great. We have one example above based on the present extent and thickness of peripheral ice. I could make a weather forecast based on climate model predictions. That would be another basis for a forecast. "Overdue" is not a useful concept for predicting ice behavior.

[Nightvid Cole]

Looks like we'd get down to around 2,300 km^3 if this year gains and loses the same volume as 2010 (starting March 1st). That's a 35% drop from the minimum in 2012.

[jdallen]

With our Max volume topping out so much lower than pre-2007, every year we have now on out is a dice roll.  Previous to 2015 I think it was a 1 in 6 chance each year of a blow out like 2012. 

I'd put that at more like a 1 in 4 chance now, with the 1 in 6 being that we blow past 2012 all the way down to sub 2 million KM2 extent or even lower.

Nothing cumulative about it, every year is a fresh dice roll.  What changes though are the starting conditions, which, with what, 10% of the 3+M thick ice we used to have? - means what's riding on those rolls is much more dear.

Spring melt of snow pack is key.  Melt ponds are key.  Early open water I think may be even more key than melt ponds.  Cloud cover is key.

We've had thunderstorms over the arctic. *Thunderstorms*.  One serious early warm front with heavy rainfall could be a game changer all by itself.  Our margins of safety are razor thin.

[Ned W]

Well, it wasn't much of a "monster" spring volume melt, at least by recent standards.

As of day 151 (aka 31 May), the drop from the max volume was the smallest of the past decade ... though that's still a larger drop than most years prior to 2010:

[Feeltheburn]

I know this sounds like Monday morning quarterbacking, but as far back as April, when I noticed the DMI modeled sea ice thickness, I predicted (in my own mind) that melt would be fairly high early on when the easy ice in Baring straight melted out, then it would stop dropping because the rest of the arctic had relatively thicker ice than usual. Again, it would sound more prescient had I possessed the cajones to have posted it.

[Feeltheburn]

Given the dearth of posts I guess it's fair to say the spring melt off didn't deliver.

[Feeltheburn]

<snip, in how many more threads are you planning on posting exactly the same thing? N>