The 2018 melting season

[Tor Bejnar]

Beaufort Sea ice movement 2018 June 1st - July13th
... [go to link to see Ice Shieldz's gif]

I see what appear to me to be several "Big Block" sort of floes in the Beaufort Sea.  Whether they melt or remain is one question.

If this is even remotely correct we are in for trouble

If the 'correctness' is remote enough, we're seeing a projection to mid September (and not late July).   

[Hyperion]

If this is even remotely correct we are in for trouble

Well they have plenty of sub's and drones both above and below. As Wadhams was emphatic. Satellite's are no way as good as sonar for measuring ice thickness.

[Hyperion]

Beaufort Sea ice movement 2018 June 1st - July13th
... [go to link to see Ice Shieldz's gif]

I see what appear to me to be several "Big Block" sort of floes in the Beaufort Sea.  Whether they melt or remain is one question.

If this is even remotely correct we are in for trouble

If the 'correctness' is remote enough, we're seeing a projection to mid September (and not late July).   

The model run on twelfth July shows projection to the 20th July in the final frame. I don't know why this should surprise anyone. The weather has been absolutely as bad as it could be for ice survival. And certainly the US navy has the best resources for validation of their models

[Stephan]

Thanks for the graphs.
I just calculated the "expectable" minimum (a sort of median between the minima of the last years) and subtracted it for each sea from the actual value (12 July before the Hudson millenium of today). Thus CAB should lose 0,9 mio. km², CAA 0,5 mio. km², Beaufort 0,3 mio. km², Grønland Sea 0,1 mio. km², Baffin 0,3 mio. km², ESS 0,6 mio. km², Chukchi 0,2 mio. km², Laptev 0,2 mio. km², Kara 0,25 mio. km² and Hudson 0,4 mio. km².
This sums up to 3,75 mio. km² which then (Extent on July 12 = 8,5 mio. km²) would result in a minimum of around 4,75 mio. km², a value quite comparable to 2017 and in an expectable range of many of us.

[bbr2314]

All peripheral regions of the core pack will be hit very hard the next 10 days. The steady but non-obvious melting is going to result in most of the FYI "poofing" at once. Copernicus shows concentration drops starting across the peripheral CAB in earnest, as this "poofing" gets underway.

I think the other major thing to note is the resilience of the shore ice in the ESS. It has not drifted away from land as it normally does (this year, that happened in the Laptev, where it normally does not occur). Instead, it is the only apparent redoubt outside of the CAB with substantial and thick ice.

While it will probably melt down more til refreeze begins, I think a substantial portion will survive the summer, which is very abnormal (it may survive summer on occasion, but that usually comes when it is pulled toward the CAB with the general retreat. this year, it will survive IN PLACE).

<snip, projections for what happens after the melting season, don't fit in this thread; N>

[RoxTheGeologist]

...I think the other major thing to note is the resilience of the shore ice in the ESS. It has not drifted away from land as it normally does (this year, that happened in the Laptev, where it normally does not occur). Instead, it is the only apparent redoubt outside of the CAB with substantial and thick ice....

I can't help but think there has been a lot of additional energy input into the Siberian side of the Arctic with the warm weather, the early large lead in the Laptev and the very early melt of the Bering and Chukchi seas. The CAB is where the season extent minimum is controlled, and three of the seas adjoining it had early low extent early (Barents, Laptev and Chukchi), as did the CAB itself. I suspect the additional heat they have absorbed is going to make the end of the melting season more interesting, despite the stormy Arctic summer.

[Peter Ellis]

Well they have plenty of sub's and drones both above and below.

... no they don't.  They integrate what data is available, which is very very little.  It's predominantly a mathematical model driven by weather data, with assimilation of ice concentration data from NSIDC.

[uniquorn]

Worldview Bering Strait/Chukchi Sea Jul13 terra/modis true color and viirs brightness temperature(band15,day)
light blue ~-1C
yellow     ~15C

edits: The temperatures suggest some ridging along the ice edge, or is it a higher salinity melting point? https://tinyurl.com/y8wftqjz

[Hyperion]

Well they have plenty of sub's and drones both above and below.

... no they don't.  They integrate what data is available, which is very very little.  It's predominantly a mathematical model driven by weather data, with assimilation of ice concentration data from NSIDC.

Well my SAS black-ops and Jane's military engineer friends worked on developing a lot of them. How much they use such not for public knowledge stuff to calibrate and verify their models we will almost certainly never know.

[subgeometer]

...I think the other major thing to note is the resilience of the shore ice in the ESS. It has not drifted away from land as it normally does (this year, that happened in the Laptev, where it normally does not occur). Instead, it is the only apparent redoubt outside of the CAB with substantial and thick ice....

I can't help but think there has been a lot of additional energy input into the Siberian side of the Arctic with the warm weather, the early large lead in the Laptev and the very early melt of the Bering and Chukchi seas. The CAB is where the season extent minimum is controlled, and three of the seas adjoining it had early low extent early (Barents, Laptev and Chukchi), as did the CAB itself. I suspect the additional heat they have absorbed is going to make the end of the melting season more interesting, despite the stormy Arctic summer.

I have to agree, there's alot of grey and brown ice all around the periphery with no end soon to the heat input  - todays ECMWF gets very ugly after 5 days

[deconstruct]

I read his comment. Hardly flaming. He is merely pointing out that too many posters are using adjectives like extraordinary, unprecedented, spectacular when what they are describing is nothing of the sort. And if something is truly extraordinary, then the person should include back up data and charts that show this. Historical data is readily available to support such claims if true.

That is exactly what I meant. Of course my temperature map showed temperatures above average (and also below for that matter) in Siberia. As it does nearly *all the time*. I hope nobody believes here, that temperatures are always right on the average. A departure from only 2°C from the average is not very much and totally normal. And that is exactly the opposite of that, what someone claimed here before, that Siberian temperatues are so high, that water from Siberian rivers might play a much bigger role in melting the ice this year.

For that claim to be true, someone had first to show, that even very-much-above-average SAT temperatures in central Siberia lead to very-much-above-average river temperatures when there is still ice and snow on the land and that those river temperatures would play a significant role at all in the September sea ice minimum. And above all that, that we actually had very-much-above-average SAT temperatures in Siberia at all.

Nothing of that sort was demonstrated, not even the last part, which would be the easiest part to demonstrate, as it wouldnt even require a back-on-the-envelope calculation if that claim is even in the ballpark of reality. And my map just showed, that there is not an extraordinary deviation in SAT temperatures for the last 3 month in Siberia.

And if pointing that out is "flaming" (regarding El Cids remarks), well, then obviously for some people backing up their claims with data seems not to be their top priority. But then you could also read the WUWT comments. There are lots of undemonstrated claims. I thought that this forum demands a higher standard for itself than that.

Being on the "right" side of AGW doesn't reduce IMO the burden of proof and the obligation to do so when making claims. Nobody is helping when using superlatives when there is no reason to do that. The situation is bad enough and doesn't require to exaggerate things.

[Hyperion]

All peripheral regions of the core pack will be hit very hard the next 10 days. The steady but non-obvious melting is going to result in most of the FYI "poofing" at once. Copernicus shows concentration drops starting across the peripheral CAB in earnest, as this "poofing" gets underway.

I think the other major thing to note is the resilience of the shore ice in the ESS. It has not drifted away from land as it normally does (this year, that happened in the Laptev, where it normally does not occur). Instead, it is the only apparent redoubt outside of the CAB with substantial and thick ice.

While it will probably melt down more til refreeze begins, I think a substantial portion will survive the summer, which is very abnormal (it may survive summer on occasion, but that usually comes when it is pulled toward the CAB with the general retreat. this year, it will survive IN PLACE).

When I look at this area of the ESAS, on SMOS and hycom thickness animations it is constantly changing day by day. Its a very shallow area inside the New Siberian islands. I believe this is another symptom of the cyclonic weather patterns effect of dispersing the pack. While the winds may be spiraling in to the cyclones, the ice and meltwater motion is substantially to the right of wind direction. People are used to watching a pack that compresses and consolidates itself by clockwise rotation of drift and overall weather. This is not the case this year. So this might in fact be a graveyard zone for glacial burgs and remnant deep keeled pressure ridge chunks, acting as a sort of garlic press for younger floes being jostled back and forth through it. Whether any of the burgs can survive the season is a good question. If there continues to be a feed of stray floes getting hung up here and chilling the local water as they melt, then they may. But there is almost 1000 km of shallow shelf water polewise here to warm substantially right through to November.

[meddoc]

That is exactly what I meant. Of course my temperature map showed temperatures above average (and also below for that matter) in Siberia. As it does nearly *all the time*. I hope nobody believes here, that temperatures are always right on the average. A departure from only 2°C from the average is not very much and totally normal. And that is exactly the opposite of that, what someone claimed here before, that Siberian temperatues are so high, that water from Siberian rivers might play a much bigger role in melting the ice this year.

For that claim to be true, someone had first to show, that even very-much-above-average SAT temperatures in central Siberia lead to very-much-above-average river temperatures when there is still ice and snow on the land and that those river temperatures would play a significant role at all in the September sea ice minimum. And above all that, that we actually had very-much-above-average SAT temperatures in Siberia at all.

Nothing of that sort was demonstrated, not even the last part, which would be the easiest part to demonstrate, as it wouldnt even require a back-on-the-envelope calculation if that claim is even in the ballpark of reality. And my map just showed, that there is not an extraordinary deviation in SAT temperatures for the last 3 month in Siberia.

And if pointing that out is "flaming" (regarding El Cids remarks), well, then obviously for some people backing up their claims with data seems not to be their top priority. But then you could also read the WUWT comments. There are lots of undemonstrated claims. I thought that this forum demands a higher standard for itself than that.

Being on the "right" side of AGW doesn't reduce IMO the burden of proof and the obligation to do so when making claims. Nobody is helping when using superlatives when there is no reason to do that. The situation is bad enough and doesn't require to exaggerate things.
[/quote]

Or maybe it is the CH4 Effect

[Thawing Thunder]

Attached the strongly enhanced graph of today. This year looks like Croatia: Even with a huge deficit it seems to be dangerous till the last moment ...

[gerontocrat]

Attached the strongly enhanced graph of today. This year looks like Croatia: Even with a huge deficit it seems to be dangerous till the last moment ...

If you were following the 2018 area and extent data thread you would be aware of data problems. E.g. Hudson Bay sea ice has not declined / collapsed as shown in the image in your post.

[Hyperion]

Attached the strongly enhanced graph of today. This year looks like Croatia: Even with a huge deficit it seems to be dangerous till the last moment ...

Indeed.

H: I believe this is another symptom of the cyclonic weather patterns effect of dispersing the pack. While the winds may be spiraling in to the cyclones, the ice and meltwater motion is substantially to the right of wind direction. People are used to watching a pack that compresses and consolidates itself by clockwise rotation of drift and overall weather. This is not the case this year.

The polar cell has in effect collapsed, and a Ferrell circulation is in effect with low level incoming winds feeding lows, and their upper level outflows feeding high pressure systems covering the central north Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

[El Cid]

The polar cell has in effect collapsed, and a Ferrell circulation is in effect with low level incoming winds feeding lows, and their upper level outflows feeding high pressure systems covering the central north Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

So, we have low pressure above the Arctic and a high pressure system in the Atlantic and the central north Pacific? We do have those every summer. What is the big deal? Attached is the average MSLP for 1979-2015 July.

[VeliAlbertKallio]

I think the recent heat in this forum is the result that it was one of the first places where people come together to discover the possibility that the Arctic Ocean could become ice free very soon. Then, when the weather and fluctuations have deferred that ultimate but possible outcome from realising, people have become disappointed as too little, or too slowly things are happening. Rest assured, when that sad day sooner or later comes, there is little to nothing to celebrate, despite shortened shipping lanes to Asia. In the mean time, let's keep our forum civilised and avoid accusations or conspiracy claims. 

[Thawing Thunder]

Attached the strongly enhanced graph of today. This year looks like Croatia: Even with a huge deficit it seems to be dangerous till the last moment ...

If you were following the 2018 area and extent data thread you would be aware of data problems. E.g. Hudson Bay sea ice has not declined / collapsed as shown in the image in your post.

Gerontocrat, I do follow that thread and I'm aware of that problem. But it doesn't influence into the big picture. Hudson Bay will melt sooner or later and this will add big to the over all melt.

[bbr2314]

The polar cell has in effect collapsed, and a Ferrell circulation is in effect with low level incoming winds feeding lows, and their upper level outflows feeding high pressure systems covering the central north Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

So, we have low pressure above the Arctic and a high pressure system in the Atlantic and the central north Pacific? We do have those every summer. What is the big deal? Attached is the average MSLP for 1979-2015 July.

I would call 2018 a "substantial departure" from ^. The ATL Hadley is now displaced extremely far N.

I would also ask that people use common sense re: Hudson Bay. Look at satellites. The ice is clearly still there. It is melting. But arguing over output from a model when satellites clearly show REALITY also shows how many here seem to prefer CPUs vs. common sense. This should not be an argument that takes up multiple pages in multiple threads.

[bbr2314]

Attached the strongly enhanced graph of today. This year looks like Croatia: Even with a huge deficit it seems to be dangerous till the last moment ...

If you were following the 2018 area and extent data thread you would be aware of data problems. E.g. Hudson Bay sea ice has not declined / collapsed as shown in the image in your post.

Gerontocrat, I do follow that thread and I'm aware of that problem. But it doesn't influence into the big picture. Hudson Bay will melt sooner or later and this will add big to the over all melt.

HYCOM shows dramatic concentration drops in the next week across the peripheral CAB. It has been aggressive re: HB and Kara but those will melt out almost entirely by 8/1 hook or crook.

The problem is not HB / Kara tho. The problem is the ice now going poof in Beaufort, ESS, and Laptev. The ATL front is also thinner than ever before. The drops going into August will be.... STEEP!

We are seeing all the FYI poof at once. That is why this is all occurring simultaneously IMO. It took a while to get thickness down but now that thickness is dropping below .5M in very many regions, concentration drops will begin occurring very rapidly.

[gerontocrat]

Attached the strongly enhanced graph of today. This year looks like Croatia: Even with a huge deficit it seems to be dangerous till the last moment ...

If you were following the 2018 area and extent data thread you would be aware of data problems. E.g. Hudson Bay sea ice has not declined / collapsed as shown in the image in your post.

Gerontocrat, I do follow that thread and I'm aware of that problem. But it doesn't influence into the big picture. Hudson Bay will melt sooner or later and this will add big to the over all melt.

Hudson Bay will melt out sooner or later as it does every year.

[Thawing Thunder]

Hudson Bay will melt out sooner or later as it does every year.

Exactly.

[Hyperion]

Some worthy views through the fog of the state of the ice in the deep central basin. Better from Aqua modis than Terra today
Remember each pixel is 250m. So you won't see gaps that small. And most of what look like large rounded cohesive floes are loosely glued together rubble. Thats the mottled grey look if you zoom in.
Even the relatively solid looking patch towards the CAA from the pole has that look. And its in an area that has been compacted by the recent ring of cylones around the outside of the basin.
Wideview,
North Beaufort, 80+nth, near the pole of inaccessibility,
Svalbard to pole on left bottom corner.
Compressed patch off the CAA

Click to enlarge.

[Hyperion]

The polar cell has in effect collapsed, and a Ferrell circulation is in effect with low level incoming winds feeding lows, and their upper level outflows feeding high pressure systems covering the central north Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

So, we have low pressure above the Arctic and a high pressure system in the Atlantic and the central north Pacific? We do have those every summer. What is the big deal? Attached is the average MSLP for 1979-2015 July.

Its not so usual for the entire ocean basins of the whole world to be solidly covered, by one giant high pressure system each, for over a month Cid. Except the South Pacific which is wider and it hasn't been so consistent. There's a big difference between long term means and the size and persistence of these features.

[El Cid]

bbr, Hyperion

The MSLP anomaly chart is somewhat convincing, although I do not know how rare or important these anomalies are. I have always thought that the endgame in the (much warmer and wetter than previously) Arctic leads to a consistent low pressure system up North and high pressure systems all around it - much like now. I don't know if this will come true - especially during wintertime

[Hefaistos]

The polar cell has in effect collapsed, and a Ferrell circulation is in effect with low level incoming winds feeding lows, and their upper level outflows feeding high pressure systems covering the central north Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
...
Its not so usual for the entire ocean basins of the whole world to be solidly covered, by one giant high pressure system each, for over a month Cid. Except the South Pacific which is wider and it hasn't been so consistent. There's a big difference between long term means and the size and persistence of these features.

True.
What's your hypothesis, why do we get these blocking patterns where LP's are consistently steered to the northern path along Iceland and further North of Scandinavia towards Svalbard?

[binntho]

The polar cell has in effect collapsed, and a Ferrell circulation is in effect with low level incoming winds feeding lows, and their upper level outflows feeding high pressure systems covering the central north Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
...
Its not so usual for the entire ocean basins of the whole world to be solidly covered, by one giant high pressure system each, for over a month Cid. Except the South Pacific which is wider and it hasn't been so consistent. There's a big difference between long term means and the size and persistence of these features.

True.
What's your hypothesis, why do we get these blocking patterns where LP's are consistently steered to the northern path along Iceland and further North of Scandinavia towards Svalbard?

It's not all that unusual for the lows to be steered over/close to Iceland for extended periods, although the recent stretch (May, June, half of July) has been unusually long and severe. The main cause for this has been the unusual high-pressure area over the UK, stretching towards Scandinavia, shunting the never-ending train of lows westwards.

It is not caused by high pressure over the Atlantic!

[be cause]

I have been looking thru gaps in the clouds lately and this AM a good shot has appeared from late yesterday on Worldview .. 86N 86W . The ice is in a worse state than I expected at that latitude . As the ice is still snow covered can I assume bottom melt ? b.c.
 ps .. ice not looking that great @ 89'N 40'E either ...

pps .. that said .. compare to the same date 2016 .. 15.07 .. the ice then was in much worse condition near the pole than this year ..

[Darvince]

Here are the shots that b.c. is referring to:

86N,86W
89N,40W

I think both areas look about average compared to 2010,12-16 (2017 and 2011 had too many clouds) for mid-July in the North Pole region. It is definitely less coherent than 2015 and 2011 in the area, however. Much much more ice cover than 2010.

[F.Tnioli]

HYCOM shows dramatic concentration drops in the next week across the peripheral CAB. It has been aggressive re: HB and Kara but those will melt out almost entirely by 8/1 hook or crook.

The problem is not HB / Kara tho. The problem is the ice now going poof in Beaufort, ESS, and Laptev. The ATL front is also thinner than ever before. The drops going into August will be.... STEEP!

We are seeing all the FYI poof at once. That is why this is all occurring simultaneously IMO. It took a while to get thickness down but now that thickness is dropping below .5M in very many regions, concentration drops will begin occurring very rapidly.

Did we ever have a triple century before? Wouldn't be surprised if we'd have a day or two with over -300k, this season.

[marcel_g]

I just had a quick look at climate reanalyzer, and it seems like the next 6 days aren't going to have much in the way of ice melting weather. Only a couple of short lived warm air temperature areas over the Beaufort and general cloudiness over much of the Arctic.

There does seem to be quite a bit more wind than previously seen over this melt season, so it'll be interesting to see if there will be dispersion and extra melting along the ice edges as the wind hits them.

Around day 8 (yes, I know, too far away to be reliable) there seems to be a lot of wind, warmth and a large plume of precipitable water. It'll be very interesting to see how this will affect the ice if it does come to pass. (Attached Images are from about 8 days out)

[jdallen]

Around day 8 (yes, I know, too far away to be reliable) there seems to be a lot of wind, warmth and a large plume of precipitable water. It'll be very interesting to see how this will affect the ice if it does come to pass. (Attached Images are from about 8 days out)

Moisture plume?  More like moisture flash flood!  Yes, it is a long way away but this bears watching. Note that on both sides of the Arctic there are not insignificant plumes of moisture entering the region long before the massive one predicted further out.

Yes weather may *appear* to be conducive to ice retention (even in the near term), but latent heat in that quantity of water is not inconsequential.

[RoxTheGeologist]

Moisture plume?  More like moisture flash flood!  Yes, it is a long way away but this bears watching. Note that on both sides of the Arctic there are not insignificant plumes of moisture entering the region long before the massive one predicted further out.

Yes weather may *appear* to be conducive to ice retention (even in the near term), but latent heat in that quantity of water is not consequential.

As far as I can tell from climate reanalyses, the water is falling as snow in the central basin. I would think that is very good for ice retention. Also, if the rain is cold, it takes around 40cm of rain at 0°C to melt 1cm of saltwater ice.

[bbr2314]

Moisture plume?  More like moisture flash flood!  Yes, it is a long way away but this bears watching. Note that on both sides of the Arctic there are not insignificant plumes of moisture entering the region long before the massive one predicted further out.

Yes weather may *appear* to be conducive to ice retention (even in the near term), but latent heat in that quantity of water is not consequential.

As far as I can tell from climate reanalyses, the water is falling as snow in the central basin. I would think that is very good for ice retention. Also, if the rain is cold, it takes around 40cm of rain at 0°C to melt 1cm of saltwater ice.

That is not true. It is snowing over a limited part of the CAA adjacent CAB. Almost everything else is rain.

I would also argue that your math is probably incorrect re: rain rate / melt. The ice is extremely porous and not uniform.

[bbr2314]

The Pacific front is finally about to begin a 2012-esque retreat. It looks like the ice adjacent to Alaska has ensured the actual front line has remained relatively stable for a while. That is going to change over the next seven days.

The damage from the Laptev's early opening is also about to become much more obvious. The ESS ice is now detaching from the main pack. What would normally buffer retreat with thick ice will instead likely stay attached to shore, anchoring -500MB anomalies that further encourage oceanic heat import in the highest Arctic.

YIKES!

[FishOutofWater]

We have seen pretty much the same NH weather anomaly pattern for the past 3 months. This has been an exceptional pattern which has brought record heat to the UK and Africa. Subsidence patterns are north of their normal locations, causing surface high pressure centers to be polewards of their normal position across most of the NH. The major stratospheric warming that preceded this weather was perhaps the strongest on record.

The positive AO (low pressure over the Arctic ocean) has helped enhance the strength of the subtropical highs and has helped move them north of their normal centers.

This summer's weather may be good for sea ice this September, but this weather pattern is moving more ocean heat than normal northwards in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

[Dharma Rupa]

This summer's weather may be good for sea ice this September, but this weather pattern is moving more ocean heat than normal northwards in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

What about this October?  November?  December?

Seems to me that WACCy weather might let Hudson freeze while the Pole is still melting.

[Michael Hauber]

This summer's weather may be good for sea ice this September, but this weather pattern is moving more ocean heat than normal northwards in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Shades of 2006 perhaps.  A slow melting year, but I remember someone claiming that a pulse of warm water from the Atlantic during 2006 was a significant factor in the 2007 result.

[pearscot]

I've been doing quite a bit of research into the ocean temperatures, especially given all of the discussions regarding more heat transfer and the Atlantification of the arctic. That said, when comparing the two big melt years (2012 and 2007), along with 2015 (which was known for its general warmth), some interesting trends emerge.

First, I'm surprised and the ice extent shows this, with regards to just how much cooler the water in the northern hemisphere is this year compared to others. It is strange given the massive heat waves seen all across the globe this summer. Second, it is clear to see how much more ice remains in the north compared to the past years on the same date. That said, it is also clear that this year there are less extremes in the ocean and its overall temperature is more uniform. Nonetheless, 2018 is on the top and you can see the differences for yourselves.









In sum, this whole year/situation is just odd and confusing to me. I expect to see more heat in the system (oceans) yet the north seems to be much cooler that I would expect. Not sure what to make of it all...

[Thawing Thunder]

In sum, this whole year/situation is just odd and confusing to me. I expect to see more heat in the system (oceans) yet the north seems to be much cooler that I would expect. Not sure what to make of it all...

Ocean currents are storing enormous quantities of heat in the deep that are going to be released with the next El Niño and other oscillating long time currents. There's a 50% chance of El Niño forming this year: Be prepared for different graphs in a couple of months.

[Michael Hauber]

Ocean currents are storing enormous quantities of heat in the deep

Are they (above the long term warming trend)?  Evidence? 

that are going to be released with the next El Niño and other oscillating long time currents. There's a 50% chance of El Niño forming this year: Be prepared for different graphs in a couple of months.

The deep water is much colder than most of the ocean, so if the water from the deep is 'released' the surface would cool not warm.  Warming in el nino events is not directly due to release of deep water heat, but due to changes in surface evaporation (due to changes in wind) and currents.  The changes in current are triggered by release of subsurface warm water from the western warm pool.

In the Arctic the deep ocean is warmer than the surface.  But it is already plenty warm enough to melt the surface ice multiple times over.

[Wherestheice]

In sum, this whole year/situation is just odd and confusing to me. I expect to see more heat in the system (oceans) yet the north seems to be much cooler that I would expect. Not sure what to make of it all...

Ocean currents are storing enormous quantities of heat in the deep that are going to be released with the next El Niño and other oscillating long time currents. There's a 50% chance of El Niño forming this year: Be prepared for different graphs in a couple of months.

I believe its more like a 70% chance for El Nino according to the most recent observations.

[bbr2314]

Wowwwww @ NPAC ridging



Knockout blow...

[subgeometer]

A storm will intensify over the Laptev Sea in the next couple of days bringing widespread 3m+ waves for a day or so. The setup we keep returning to of a pair of lows keeps drawing in warm air to fuel periodic intensification. The forecast shows above freezing temps at the centre of the low at 850 hPa. I've included a 3D view showing 3 separate warm airmasses being drawn in by the pair of lows. One big low covering the basin would bemore ice friendly, I'm not so sure about this situation, cloud hasn't been much protection along the Siberian side.
If the air under cloud is warm they are maybe not so beneficial, especially as the sun begins to lower in the sky.

I've included the wave and 850hPa forecast from ECWMF/WindyTv's 2D mode for thursday, as well as the same time at 950hPa as well as a couple of days later

[subgeometer]

Moisture plume?  More like moisture flash flood!  Yes, it is a long way away but this bears watching. Note that on both sides of the Arctic there are not insignificant plumes of moisture entering the region long before the massive one predicted further out.

Yes weather may *appear* to be conducive to ice retention (even in the near term), but latent heat in that quantity of water is not consequential.

That depends on how much of the heat from condensation and freezing in the atmosphere reaches the ice. Under cloud, how much can be vented to space?

As far as I can tell from climate reanalyses, the water is falling as snow in the central basin. I would think that is very good for ice retention. Also, if the rain is cold, it takes around 40cm of rain at 0°C to melt 1cm of saltwater ice.

[Aluminium]

July 8-16.

[Thawing Thunder]

Ocean currents are storing enormous quantities of heat in the deep

Are they (above the long term warming trend)?  Evidence?

As I understood, the stalled warming in the first decade after the turn of the millennium was due to that effect. The oceans can work as gigantic heat storages.

In the Arctic the deep ocean is warmer than the surface.  But it is already plenty warm enough to melt the surface ice multiple times over.

Sounds like a time bomb to me.

[echoughton]

GJ, Pearscot. Not enough talk about SST this year affecting melt. They are much above the past number of years in the NH and is probably much of the reason we are seeing high ice retention compared with those same years.

[Shared Humanity]

Wowwwww @ NPAC ridging


Knockout blow...

With all of these spectacular events and knock out blows, the ice remains remarkably resilient by every measure available.

Long term, Arctic ice is doomed. This melt season is not proving to be the knock out blow and this is due to a lack of clear skies where the sun can precondition the ice for later melt. A cloudy Arctic is not conducive to melt.