2012 was expected before the GAC.
Many of us expected a new record low in area/extent by late June/early July.
We just didn't expect it to be so early and that rec record breaking
As the forum wasn't in existence then..
ASI 2012 update 7 (July 15th)Two weeks have passed since the last ASI update. At the time the weather forecast for the Arctic showed things that pointed to a (possibly big) nosedive on sea ice extent and area charts. The forecast became even worse, showing a very big, very strong high-pressure area over the Beaufort Sea and low- pressure systems on the Siberian side of the Arctic. In other words, a hefty Dipole Anomaly, that we saw so much of in 2007.
But none of it came about. The weather forecast completely changed its tune and instead was showing a low-pressure area taking over things. Which did come about. So the nosedive didn't really live up to its weather forecast potential, and I was expecting a lull, a stalling, a levelling off of trends on graphs, but this hasn't really come about either! In the end nothing much has changed when it comes to the graphs in the past two weeks.
If the weather forecast had come about, 2012 would have undoubtedly taken a big lead, but as we say in Dutch: If my aunt had had a dick, she'd be my uncle! Instead, 2012 keeps steadily ploughing towards the minimum (two months from now), still battling it out with the big boys, apparently not much perturbed by atmospheric patterns that brought a stop to the 2010 and 2011 marches for melting season glory. Although that stop could still be coming about in the next week.
ASI 2012 update 8: it shouldn't, but it does (July28th)I'm basically going to say the same thing as I did in the last ASI update: Weather patterns haven't been conducive to sea ice decrease, trend lines on graphs should be stalling, but they don't. As I've shown in yesterday's blog post comparing this year's weather patterns in June and July with previous record years, the decrease should have slowed down significantly like it did in 2010 and 2011, but it didn't. The 2012 SIE trend line shouldn't follow 2007 so closely, but it does. The 2012 SIA trend line shouldn't lead, but it does.
I would, perhaps, quantify 2018 as "It should but it doesn't.
ASI8 in 2012 was just a week before the GAC began and the season went on to its climatic finale. However there had been a consistent build up of heat and a consistent melting of the ice where it was not exactly expected.
When I say we did not expect a huge record in 2012, I'm repeating what was said at the time. The expectation was that we would get a 2007, ish, year with maybe more and maybe less. Based on the fact that it was melting much like 2007 without the 2007 open skies stimulus.
This year we have neither the open skies, the extra heat, the extreme sst's nor the weather of 2007/2012. What we do have is thinner ice, an anomalously low 2017/18 winter and a fairly rapid start to the year. But, then again, we had that in 2016 too.
July will be a pointer on the way. August will be the real harbinger of the close of the season. Time will tell. But, so far, we have no single instance of conditions which drove the prior melt seasons to records.
Have a look at the Barrow cam, then look at the breakup forecast maps prior to 2012 (they stopped after that).
Since this forecast has ended, the breakup has trended lower even with lower levels of w/M2 input. Due to thinner ice and warmer SST.
I've been watching the "weather" events and the late june melt ponding which has re-frozen after the clouds come back. I've seen that before.
As I said, I'm here to be surprised as to what the arctic does next. But, over the last >2 decades of watching, the ability to surprise has been reduced somewhat.
