Since the wind is fairly strong and locally consistent, if the GFS forecast is correct, we might expect considerable dispersion to the south of the ice edge and immediate interior. Floes moving into the newly expanded Atlantification zone presumably will melt out over the course of a few days, leaving the ice edge where it is now but farther into the extruded Kara ice.
Revisiting once again the aftermath of the early July local weather system examined in post #1795 with follow-up in #1881 which used GFS nullschool from June 30th to July 4th to anticipate the effects of fairly strong and persistent north winds forecast for the ice edge and adjacent concentration above the Svalbard-FJL-SZ line, I’ve come to realize that (1) it’s better to wait until the system has passed so preliminary re-analysis can be used instead of forecasts (we’re here to study the ice, not reliability of GFS), (2) it takes a few days beyond the study boundary for effects to fully emerge, (3) attribution to the event will always be problematic, correlation not being causation — what the ice would have done “without” the weather system, and (4) comparisons to past year offer some idea of seasonal progression norms while introducing too much variation of their own.
At any rate, based on effects of similar wind event in early April and the presumed thinning of this ice since then, some ice edge dispersion drama and advance into the melt zone seemed a foregone conclusion. While there has
indeed been some of that, it doesn’t come close to the mid-April aftermath.
That event (on Ascat) had a much longer duration (24 days vs 5), more erratic local winds but strong support from an ongoing basin-wide CW rotational pattern. Since a rigid ice pack transmits ‘action at a distance’, it seems (5) purely local considerations are insufficient as compressibility and motion of the whole pack must be considered.
Moving on, yesterday's cyclone was notable for its low pressure but not so much for winds which relate to pressure gradients rather than pressure per se. Nullschool does not go back as far as GAC2012 though winds were likely considered in the aftermath papers.
With Ascat, SMOS and JaxaRGB largely benched for the season, the remaining ice edge/concentration monitoring tool, UH AMSR2 3.125 km, has its own issues with bluish overlays from passing weather artifacts this time of year. We haven’t found a processing system, eg rolling averages, that entirely removes them quite as well as ocular observation of day-to-day feature persistence. However that leaves something to be desired from the quantitative and comparative perspectives.
The last ice of the Barents, seen uncurling around FJL as it rotates clockwise, melts and disperses is associated with deeper St Anna Trough bathymetry (reamed out by grounded ice streams during the last ice ages). This area is not so much affected by incoming atlantification and indeed serves somewhat as a control for regions that are.
The most noteworthy event of this melt season to date has been the apparent advance — some say tipping point — of atlantification shows up in the 2017-18 comparison out to July 7th.
https://tinyurl.com/y92mc8s2 free full text of Northern Barents tipping point paper
https://tinyurl.com/y96traq8 https://tinyurl.com/ya3v4kd2