IJIS

[magnamentis]

I hope more people hang around this freeze season. It got real quiet last year and the freeze season was fascinating.

Don't worry, there's loads of us lurkers here in summer and winter . The trouble is there's often not much more to add to the comments posted without just clogging up the thread with arbitrary 'yes I agree' kind of comments.  This forum is a shiny example of how good a forum can be and I for one don't want to pollute it with my inane drivel (too late).

true all that which is why some of us voted for a "button" to show "d'accord" and/or appreciation :-) perhaps this will bring the topic back on the table, would be nice.

however will perhaps decide to implement that feature should not even ask as to it's name, too much subject to personal preferences, we will take it as it comes, no matter whether it's called "like" "thanks" or whathaveyou :-)

There's always something going on in the Arctic that's worth looking at, that's what makes it compulsive viewing.

[Darvince]

Did you mean to add something to that?

[budmantis]

Did you mean to add something to that?

Stay tuned! The all seeing eye is watching, perhaps there will be another revelation forthcoming!

[Tigertown]

Did you mean to add something to that?

The puddin' is in the middle.

[Tigertown]

Noticed just now that JAXA has updated, but will let Espen do the honors.

[magnamentis]

Did you mean to add something to that?

text got lost somehow, sorry for that, basically just wanted to confirm (share your fews)
no clue what happend to the text. perhaps me using trackpad touch mouse commands
plays a role, unintended click or something like that. again accept my appologies. LOL

[oren]

Your text is still there, it just got lost inside the quote.

[Lord M Vader]

IJIS is back! And with a shocking result too! I suppose it's the first time as an extent drop have occurred two days in a row in October(!!!) For the dates of September 27 to October 3 the IJIS SIE numbers were:

September 27: 5011447 km²
September 28: 5030140 km²(up 18693)
September 29: 5013331 km² (down 16809)
September 30: 5040582 km² (up 27251)
October 1: 5035947 km² (down 4635)
October 2: 5013789 km² (down 22158)
October 3:5034338 km² (up 20549)

Historical or what?! Or just me who have missed something here? Obviously, there have been some small one day drops in October in the past, for example in 2011 and 2009.

Best, LMV

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,034,338 km²（October 3, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,097,956 km²（October 4, 2016）up 63,618 km² from previous.

[Sleepy]

I hope more people hang around this freeze season. It got real quiet last year and the freeze season was fascinating.

I'll agree to that. There has been a response to the temperatures up there, as could be seen in the graph from uni-bremen and now also at ADS when it's back. The prerequisites for an even more fascinating winter are there.

[Shared Humanity]

I think one of the single biggest changes in the Arctic is the heavy load of moisture that is now routinely present in the atmosphere. An ice capped Arctic Ocean could best be described as a desert if you looked at precipitation with clear, sunny skies and a persistent high pressure. We now have a frequently cloudy Arctic, often with thick fog. I believe this energy rich moisture is feeding the increasingly stormy weather and clouds in the winter have got to be reducing the amount of heat radiating into space. This also has to be altering northern hemisphere weather in ways that are not clearly understood.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,153,716 km²（October 5, 2016）up 55,760 km² from previous.

[Sleepy]

I think one of the single biggest changes in the Arctic is the heavy load of moisture that is now routinely present in the atmosphere.

More vapor on it's way.

[Adam Ash]

IJIS is back! And with a shocking result too! I suppose it's the first time as an extent drop have occurred two days in a row in October(!!!)... Best, LMV 

All summer we spoke of 'momentum' in relation to forcings on the ice.  Do October extent drops imply there may be (a lack of) momentum to the freeze which could result in lower volume or extent come 2017?  Time will tell, eh?

[Iceismylife]

IJIS is back! And with a shocking result too! I suppose it's the first time as an extent drop have occurred two days in a row in October(!!!)... Best, LMV 

All summer we spoke of 'momentum' in relation to forcings on the ice.  Do October extent drops imply there may be (a lack of) momentum to the freeze which could result in lower volume or extent come 2017?  Time will tell, eh?

Ateam said something about maximum fetch and wave activity mixing water.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,174,905 km²（October 6, 2016）up 21,189 km² from previous.

[Jim Hunt]

Ateam said something about maximum fetch and wave activity mixing water.

See for example:

"Importance of waves in the Arctic"

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,179,186 km²（October 7, 2016）up 4,281 km² from previous.

[Shared Humanity]

And so the freeze shifts from amazing rapid to very slow. It will be fascinating to watch the season progress. Will we see another low maximum as we did last year or will the next melt season begin with SIE more closely matching the average of the past 10 or 15 years?

[RoxTheGeologist]

It seems the dispersed ice in the CAB with (probably) a stable freshwater layer at 0°C was susceptible to a rapid freeze.

My guess is that now the open peripheral oceans, with warmer saltier water from increased mixing, are not losing energy quickly because of the increase transport of atmospheric heat from mid latitudes. That heat is shown by the air temperature average graphs from the DMI and Slater. The Arctic is having a very mild October. It's going to be interesting to see how long the negative AO permits the current weather pattern to continue.

[Sleepy]

Weeks probably, the low sea ice will favor positive polar cap heights and a negative AO.

[Tigertown]

Strange; no update today. Only slight gain yesterday. NSIDC actually showed a slight drop on the 7th. Really curious to see what the near future holds.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Quite the contrast.

Extent increase from the minimum to the end September



October extent increase so far

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,184,568 km²（October 8, 2016）up 5,382 km² from previous.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,230,747 km²（October 9, 2016）up 46,179 km² from previous.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,249,138 km²（October 10, 2016）up 18,391 km² from previous.

[abbottisgone]

Can this extreme sinusoidality be explained by the mere measurement problem of methodology?

Seriously, it's a serious question I'll have you all know!  ( )

(I am of course riding on the coat-tails of others who have expressed the same in other words over the last few days... )

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

[dnem]

I realize that this provides no advance in mechanistic understanding whatsoever, but many systems theorists predict that system variability will increase as a system approaches a state change.  I can't even definitively say if "system variability" has actually increased within the arctic sea ice "system" in recent years, but behavior such as the whipsaw changes in extent this September and October would at least be consistent with that paradigm.

[Lord M Vader]

BFTV: if you summarize the total SIE increase since the minimum for the years since 2002; does it change the overall picture much?

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,294,114 km²（October 11, 2016）up 44,976 km² from previous.

[jdallen]

Yeah, 'bout how I'm feeling right now too, looking at those numbers.

IJIS has been astonishingly flat.

Cyclone Cannons!

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTV: if you summarize the total SIE increase since the minimum for the years since 2002; does it change the overall picture much?

Total increase from minimum is close to average, or 7th lowest from 15 years. Max is 2002 with 2.14m, min is 2006 with 918k, 02-15 average is 1.48m and 2016 is currently at 1.28m.

[jdallen]

BFTV: if you summarize the total SIE increase since the minimum for the years since 2002; does it change the overall picture much?

Total increase from minimum is close to average, or 7th lowest from 15 years. Max is 2002 with 2.14m, min is 2006 with 918k, 02-15 average is 1.48m and 2016 is currently at 1.28m.

Considering minimum was pretty early and very low, the difference between 2016 and 2006 to me starts to look less significant and the difference between low and average more so.

Again, the main story is lack of October gains.

[Pmt111500]

Looking at other post-nino years on the large graph the second week of November might be of interest in 2016. (sorry if this message sounds like de-ja-vu, I might have said something similar in May or July.) Will we get a minimum of max after that?

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,367,956 km²（October 12, 2016）up 73,842 km² from previous.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,437,344 km²（October 13, 2016）up 69,388 km² from previous.

[Lord M Vader]

First century up so far today. Espen should make an update soon

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,539,577 km²（October 14, 2016）up 102,233 km² from previous.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,660,235 km²（October 15, 2016）up 120,658 km² from previous.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,713,297 km²（October 16, 2016）up 53,062 km² from previous.

[DavidR]

BFTV: if you summarize the total SIE increase since the minimum for the years since 2002; does it change the overall picture much?

Total increase from minimum is close to average, or 7th lowest from 15 years. Max is 2002 with 2.14m, min is 2006 with 918k, 02-15 average is 1.48m and 2016 is currently at 1.28m.

Considering minimum was pretty early and very low, the difference between 2016 and 2006 to me starts to look less significant and the difference between low and average more so.

Again, the main story is lack of October gains.

Five days later and 2016 (1696033) has the fourth lowest increase from minimum. 2007 (1488495), 2009(1655823), and 2011 (1650858) are lower.

To avoid going to lowest increase on record, within 7 days, IJIS must increase by an average of more than 110K per day.

To avoid going to lowest on record within 7 days, IJIS must increase at an average 165K per day and even at that rate it will  be lowest on record on Oct 24th.

[Jim Pettit]

As others have noted, this month has seen one of the slowest total extent increases on record. In fact, of the years from 2003 through 2016, this October is the only one that hasn't yet crossed the one million square kilometer mark in increase, accumulating only an additional 628k against a 03-15 mean average of 1524k and a median of 1.5M.



For the entire year to date, 2016 is maintaining the lowest average on record, and the only one yet to cross the 10M km2 mark.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,756,548 km2（October 17, 2016）up 43,251 km² from previous.

[Alistair]

Espen, was it intentional to leave out 2012 from the graph?

[DavidR]

Espen, was it intentional to leave out 2012 from the graph?

Almost  certainly not, but 2012 (5804437) is now 3rd lowest and 2016 (5756548) 2nd.  It will probably take another two or three days before 2016 is lowest.

[Espen]

IJIS:

5,851,597 km²（October 18, 2016）up 95,049 km² from previous.

[Lord M Vader]

Almost a +200K increase today and just barely over 6 Mn km². Interesting to see tomorrows value as 2007 saw an increase of almost 250K and then a 300K up the next day.

The latest day to cross the mark of 7Mn km² is October 24 in both 2007, 2011 and 2012.

Lattest date to cross 8 Mn km² is uniqely being hold by 2012 which saw the mark been crossed at November 4. At ssecond place we find 2010 which crossed 8 Mn at October 30.

[Espen]

IJIS:

6,005,396 km²（October 19, 2016）up 153,799 km² from previous.