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Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3900 on: February 13, 2017, 05:33:25 AM »
IJIS:

13,397,611 km2(February 12, 2017)up 46,776 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
And by the 15%=100% rule the true area value might be as low as 2006950 km2. Really funny if you think of it.
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Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3901 on: February 13, 2017, 02:48:37 PM »
As anticipated by Neven, very cold conditions forecast for Bering for the next 7 days or so. Colder over Barents as well. There's space for a significant extension increase in the next days. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised at all if 2017 maximum was not a new...minimum.

The real issue is about volumes though.. As we've seen from the PIOMAS the situation is just horrible. Temperatures have been "less abnormal" than usual over the Arctic for the last few weeks, and for the next few days there will even be lower-than-average temperatures over several areas, due to a compaction of the PV. Just hope that this will help increasing the volumes over beaufort, Chuckchi and ESS which would somewhat help during melting season.

It is worth noting that there is much more ice in the NW passages than one year ago, as the ice is significantly thicker up there. Winter temperatures have been fairly normal over that area, and they'll keep being low in the next days (between -35C and -42C currently). Just a few drops of good news in a sea of bad ones.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3902 on: February 14, 2017, 05:29:34 AM »
IJIS:

13,436,564 km2(February 13, 2017)up 38,953 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3903 on: February 15, 2017, 05:29:33 AM »
IJIS:

13,546,701 km2(February 14, 2017)up 110,137 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3904 on: February 15, 2017, 05:56:19 AM »
IJIS:

13,546,701 km2(February 14, 2017)up 110,137 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

A new peak, yes?
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Matt

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3905 on: February 15, 2017, 06:01:30 AM »
Wow where did that come from??? :o

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3906 on: February 15, 2017, 06:16:58 AM »
Wow where did that come from??? :o
Some actual freezing. The 67+ km/hr wind blowing sea ice out of the Bering Strait didn't hurt, though. Dispersion and export.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3907 on: February 15, 2017, 07:21:07 AM »
It appears that the strong upwards trend should continue in the next few days as well.

At least that's how I interpret the 'ARC' prediction map posted by Tigertown in post #2779 on the Freezing thread:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg103206.html#msg103206.


That should take this year's IJIS extent out of first place, probably beginning tomorrow.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 09:32:15 AM by slow wing »

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3908 on: February 15, 2017, 11:42:23 AM »
Everything as per the forecasts which, by the way, confirm very low temperatures in Bering, and persistence of low temperatures over Barents as well, where there's space for major extension increase after persisting conditions favourable to compaction in the last weeks. What is more, temperatures close to the seasonal average values will persist over much of the arctic for th next 7-10 days (which is a big news, considering the current trend..)

As usual freezing comes with dispersion, amplifying the overall effect. There's a price to pay though, as transportation through the Fram will probably be massive, due to the combination of persisting strong winds and presence of thick ice north of the strait.

Summarising, I don't see 2017 ending up with a record-low maximum, but in the meantime I remain pessimistic about the overall status of arctic ice, considering the massive volume deficit shown by PIOMAS.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 11:50:31 AM by Cato »

Dorsetmetman

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3909 on: February 15, 2017, 02:03:49 PM »
Totally agree cato. Rapid freeze at the end of winter will most likely mean rapidy melt at the start of spring. That new ice isn't going to last long.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3910 on: February 15, 2017, 04:42:33 PM »
Totally agree cato. Rapid freeze at the end of winter will most likely mean rapidy melt at the start of spring. That new ice isn't going to last long.

7-10 days of near normal temperatures, or about 30 FDD/day equivalent.  In open water, that will work out to 25-30CM of ice being formed.  Where there is existing ice, the increase will be scant, measured in perhaps 5-10 CM of ice.  It will be less where ice is thicker and it has snow cover.

We are about 20 days from the point at which 80N temperatures start to climb rapidly.  Below that latitude, they are increasing rapidly already.  New ice formed in the Bering will vanish as quickly as it was formed the moment the wind changes.

By the time we reach day 100, we will be at temperatures which approximate the +5C anomaly we see currently.  With increasing insolation and overall rapidly rising northern hemisphere temperatures, what will buffer the ice from the heat already in the water along the Atlantic side of the basin?  How much more rapidly will those temperatures increase?

IJIS *will* see a burst of growth - possibly several successive centuries worth; it may even briefly blow past 14M KM2.  I agree that growth will fall back just as rapidly.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3911 on: February 16, 2017, 05:23:23 AM »
IJIS:

13,673,982 km2(February 15, 2017)uo 127,281 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3912 on: February 16, 2017, 09:04:40 AM »
Cue David Rose article: "Arctic sea ice passes 2016 levels, why are we spending billions on climate change?"
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3913 on: February 16, 2017, 09:15:32 AM »
RECOVERY!!!

;)

If we have a couple more of these days we can get record daily drops I guess, because of the bad ice condition

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3914 on: February 16, 2017, 11:52:55 AM »
At this rate we will be at 14m by next week!!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3915 on: February 16, 2017, 03:05:23 PM »
At this rate we will be at 14m by next week!!

Having newly formed ice in these areas is better than nothing but nothing will return soon enough.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3916 on: February 17, 2017, 05:29:48 AM »
IJIS:

13,709,174 km2(February 16, 2017)up 35,192 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3917 on: February 18, 2017, 10:56:05 AM »
IJIS:

13,723,104 km2(February 17, 2017)up 13,930 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3918 on: February 19, 2017, 08:18:17 AM »
IJIS:

13,730,632 km2(February 18, 2017)up 7,528 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3919 on: February 19, 2017, 08:26:01 AM »
IJIS Antarctic:

A new record low at 2,199,214 km2(February 18, 2017)
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3920 on: February 19, 2017, 11:07:34 PM »
An update of my 'when and how big was the max' chart. Visually simplified - now a bit less like a random display of M&Ms / Smarties.   

Given the upwards excursion this week just gone I've also picked out 2005, which showed impressive rollercoaster style in late Feb - mid March.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3921 on: February 20, 2017, 05:24:54 AM »
IJIS:

13,778,754 km2(February 19, 2017)up 48,122 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3922 on: February 20, 2017, 09:24:46 AM »
IJIS:

13,778,754 km2(February 19, 2017)up 48,122

Dang, only 3702 km2 from my guess of maximum. Looks like I ovetshoot again the IJIS max poll answer. In couple of days I might be out of the race of most correct guess. There's been almost no high pressures over CAB so not very surprised of this. The highs would tend to hinder the spread. But the poor condition and thickness of ice on locations would give room for more freeze alias thickness growth without the addition to extent measures.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3923 on: February 20, 2017, 10:22:30 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if the maximum was made in the next one-week time. It would be another low maximum, needless to say. Bering is getting warmer every day from now on, and Barents will get milder in a few days as well. Potential for ice growth only for Okhotsk and some dispersion in Davis / Newfoundland. Temperatures will be low over the CAB and especially CAA, where increased ice thickness could delay the NW passages opening this year. A lot of transportation ongoing through the Fram, and for the next 4-5 days.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3924 on: February 21, 2017, 01:24:28 AM »
Fifty days into 2017 already! I computed how many record low extent days each year has had to this point of the year based on the VISHOP EXTENT GRAPH data file. (AKA, Greg learns pivot tables):


2006:    7
2016:    8
2017:  35


So, wow! This year, though it's now fallen -- or risen -- to third place (*) is still way ahead in terms of total record low days. Let's see how the next fifty days go.


(*) Espen said second place, so maybe I'm looking at something wrong.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3925 on: February 21, 2017, 05:29:18 AM »
IJIS:

13,777,530 km2(February 20, 2017)down 1,224 km2 from previous and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3926 on: February 22, 2017, 02:15:01 AM »
IJIS:

13,777,530 km2(February 20, 2017)down 1,224 km2 from previous and 3rd lowest measured for the date.

Those who voted that max IJIS ice extent would be between 13.75 - 14 million km2 are in the money and are likely to "win" barring a huge increase in ice between now and max, whenever that will be (but which is historically the middle of March).
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3927 on: February 22, 2017, 05:28:19 AM »
IJIS:

13,784,671 km2(February 21, 2017)up 7,141 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3928 on: February 22, 2017, 06:21:40 AM »
+2215 km2 over my guess... Hopefully it still grows over 14.5Mkm2 (the average of the previous decade) but I doubt it.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 08:59:00 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3929 on: February 23, 2017, 05:29:46 AM »
IJIS:

13,812,136 km2(February 22, 2017)up 27,465 km2 from previous and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3930 on: February 24, 2017, 05:40:54 AM »
IJIS:

13,839,032 km2(February 23, 2017)up 26,896 km2 from previous and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3931 on: February 24, 2017, 06:02:43 AM »
Last 14 days average +33718km2/day if I didn't make a mistake transferring the numbers to paper and can still do division by hand  :P
« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 06:15:27 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3932 on: February 25, 2017, 03:06:30 AM »
Last 14 days average +33718km2/day if I didn't make a mistake transferring the numbers to paper and can still do division by hand  :P

The max may depend on how late it's reached, but usually it is between the first and third week of March. At the rate ice is accumulating the max should be between 14-14.25 km2 for those who voted in the poll.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3933 on: February 25, 2017, 11:24:43 AM »
IJIS:

13,807,125 km2(February 24, 2017)down 31,907 km2 from previous and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3934 on: February 26, 2017, 11:43:52 AM »
IJIS:

13,772,990 km2(February 25, 2017)down 34,135 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3935 on: February 26, 2017, 12:27:13 PM »
Ten-day average by speedy summation on paper registered only +10145,6 Km2/day. Still keeping my guess of 9th of march but wouldn't be surprised if the maximum happened on the ides.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3936 on: February 27, 2017, 12:04:01 AM »
My weekly update, this time with the 'average for the 2010s' trajectory superimposed, which on its own suggests 14.0 might still be passed. Not that the Arctic seems bothered about averages this decade; certainly not he last 12 months. Anyway, make of it as you will...
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3937 on: February 27, 2017, 03:22:48 AM »
I love this chart... but keep thinking one thing.  It all depends on the weather. 

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3938 on: February 27, 2017, 05:27:05 AM »
IJIS:

13,763,520 km2(February 26, 2017)down 9,470 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3939 on: February 27, 2017, 06:00:29 AM »
IJIS:

13,763,520 km2(February 26, 2017)down 9,470 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
I suspect we may be starting to see the effect of increased insolation on the Okhotsk, Bering, and Greenland Seas, as well as possibly the Barents and Baffin Bay.

It will be interesting to see if the numbers are able to recover, or if we may have actually reached max extent.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3940 on: February 27, 2017, 06:36:29 AM »
I believe this year is following in the footsteps of 2016 and 2015, which exhibited a different behavior from the years before them. Therefore even though the max is quite random, I wouldn't be surprised if this year's max is already behind us.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3941 on: February 27, 2017, 10:23:44 AM »
Looking at the 2003-2016 February and March IJIS data there are quite a lot of runs of 3 or 4 consecutive days of extent going down before the maximum has been reached.

There were runs of 5 consecutive days of decrease prior to the eventual max in 2009 and 2010.

2003 even had 8 consecutive days of decrease, losing 258k sq km in the process before it then went up again, gaining 277k sq km and hitting its maximum.
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Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3942 on: February 27, 2017, 11:31:07 AM »
As anticipated in my previous post, extension has come to a stop due to a less favourable synoptic configuration over several peripheral areas of the Arctic. In particular, compaction is ongoing in the Fram (thus reducing export which has been massive in the  last few weeks). Okhotsk is experiencing very mild conditions, and it will just get milder in the next days. Barents does not show much potential for extension increase as well. Therefore I would not be surprised if the maximum had already been reached last week, in line with my expectations.

On the other hand it is worth mentioning that temperatures have significantly decreased over the Arctic. Ice temperature, in particular, in the last few weeks has been significantly lower than one year ago over vast areas of the Arctic, in particular CAA and CAB. Conditions will be extremely cold over CAA and part of Beaufort for the next 7-10 days, thus helping with ice thickening especially in areas like Beaufort where thickness is currently very low.

IMVHO in spite of a one more record-low maximum possibly already achieved, synoptic conditions are not the same unfavourable in terms of distribution of multi-year ice and thickness over critical areas of the Arctic. Of course summer weather conditions will be key to any outcome, including a new summer record-minimum, which remains highly probable in my view. But there are also reasons for a quite cautious and moderate optimism which I'm not willing to disregard.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3943 on: February 28, 2017, 05:25:47 AM »
IJIS:

13,719,038 km2(February 27, 2017)down 44,482 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3944 on: February 28, 2017, 05:39:27 AM »
IJIS Antarctic:

2,152,483 km2(February 27, 2017)completely deranged.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3945 on: February 28, 2017, 06:27:16 AM »
IJIS Antarctic:

2,152,483 km2(February 27, 2017)completely deranged.
It appears everything that *could* melt out in one year *did* melt out in one year....
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Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3946 on: February 28, 2017, 06:30:28 AM »
IJIS:

13,719,038 km2(February 27, 2017)down 44,482 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

11-day average drops to under +1000km2/day... Now a hu-uge cracking event would be nice so deniers would have something to celebrate as we would cross 14 Megas. They might even remind us "it's the numbers that matter". Wouldn't it be nice.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3947 on: February 28, 2017, 11:01:51 AM »
It's a really mixed situation: if on the one hand the (probably) umpteenth lowest maximum just confirms a trend which is crystal clear in itself, on the other hand significant reduction of export from the Fram, very low temperatures over CAA and Beaufort and thicker ice transportation towards Beaufort and Chuckchi are good news for arctic ice in realation to the incoming melting season...

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3948 on: February 28, 2017, 11:35:15 AM »
Four consecutive falls, and down ~120k from the current peak, so we could be past the max. If so, it would be early and record low, but we'll have to wait a few weeks to be sure – or less, of course, if it increases by more than 120k before that, which is entirely possible.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3949 on: February 28, 2017, 11:46:33 AM »
This is playing out much like 2012.  Early spring in Canada and US.  Now we continue to plateau for a few weeks until the roll over gains steam.
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