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gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4050 on: March 20, 2017, 07:15:29 PM »
For anyone interested:

At the time of writing, this thread has had 1,096,023 views.

What makes you think anyone is remotely interested Jim?   ;)


twitch, twitch
Interested doesn't come close.

I will be in acute distress until Jaxa returns. It is bad enough to have to wait a whole month for the PIOMAS updates. My shrink still tells me "get over it, you've gotta let it go" when I start drooling about the demise of Cryosphere Today.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4051 on: March 21, 2017, 05:06:48 AM »
IJIS:

13,559,152 km2(March 20, 2017)lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4052 on: March 21, 2017, 09:29:08 AM »
Just wanted to say thanks to Deeenngee whose graph has been really helpful way to visualise IJIS Max compared to other years

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4053 on: March 21, 2017, 10:38:13 AM »
Phew IJIS is back

Was searching graphs and ice area images all day yesterday in withdrawl. Its flatlined anyways.

Is there an IJIS anonymous to get over the addiction to Arctic Sea Ice melt?

Snow and Ice here this morning in Ireland melting but it just isnt the same.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4054 on: March 21, 2017, 11:44:36 AM »
Just wanted to say thanks to Deeenngee whose graph has been really helpful way to visualise IJIS Max compared to other years

Ditto, and congrats for getting it at the top of Neven's most recent post on the ASIB!

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/03/lowest-maximum-on-record-again.html

Confession time: When I first saw your chart, I couldn't initially make any real sense out of it. However, when I looked at it again, it was a real "slap-forehead-with-palm-of-hand" moment, as it finally penetrated my thick skull that you had created a scatter diagram in order to demonstrate the point.

The reason for my discombobulation concerning the slowness of my mental reaction, was that I had not long since used such a scatter diagram in an astronomy lecture to demonstrate Hubble's Law. In this, Hubble had used a form of scatter diagram to demonstrate the relationship between redshift (recessional velocity) and distance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble's_law#Combining_redshifts_with_distance_measurements

Even worse, one of the most famous representations in astronomy is the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram - another scatter diagram with which I've been familiar for 40+ years.
http://www.atnf.csiro.au/outreach/education/senior/astrophysics/stellarevolution_hrintro.html


Getting old is - in every sense - a pain in the arse.

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4055 on: March 21, 2017, 03:45:14 PM »

Is there an IJIS anonymous to get over the addiction to Arctic Sea Ice melt?


No - you are doomed. It has been 20+ years for me and even the frontal lobotomy and electric shock treatment has had zilch effect.

And just to make matters worse, while JAXA says no change in the last two days, MASIE says nearly 200,000 km2 gone in the last two days.

Happy equinox.

Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4056 on: March 21, 2017, 05:38:42 PM »
Thanks Meirion and Bill F.  It would have helped if I'd labelled the X axis with 'day number' or something like that!

One can also have a version that shows the trajectory of each year - rather than the grey range - but it's very noisy. Although, as indicated in the blog comments, I've embraced the noise for artistic effect (inspired by Joy Division) over at the 'cafe' thread.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4057 on: March 21, 2017, 11:37:49 PM »
So far, 2017 has had 77 days ranked in the bottom 3 for each day's comparative ice extent over the 1990-2017 period, and 2 days not in the bottom 3.

This means 2017 has already overtaken every single year for days in the bottom 3 for that day, apart from 2012 and 2016.

By day 79, 2016 had 58 days in the bottom 3 for 1990-2017
By day 79, 2012 had 2 days in the bottom 3 for 1990-2017.

I don't usually do emoticons, but anyway:  :(

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gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4058 on: March 22, 2017, 02:02:34 AM »
So far, 2017 has had 77 days ranked in the bottom 3 for each day's comparative ice extent over the 1990-2017 period, and 2 days not in the bottom 3.

This means 2017 has already overtaken every single year for days in the bottom 3 for that day, apart from 2012 and 2016.

By day 79, 2016 had 58 days in the bottom 3 for 1990-2017
By day 79, 2012 had 2 days in the bottom 3 for 1990-2017.

I don't usually do emoticons, but anyway:  :(

No matter how I parse this, it doesn't make sense to me. Other years have days in the bottom 3 by day 79: 2006, 2011, and 2015 (maybe others, I'm eyeballing it). 2017 has the most for sure, but that wouldn't need the caveat "apart from 2012 and 2016". I think all three of those other years have more bottom 3 days than 2012 by day 79. 2012 wasn't even low by extent numbers to this point in the year. Maybe you mean no other year has had 77 or more  days in the bottom 3 over the course of the whole year? Even that can't be right, because 2016 surely has more than that. Help!

CognitiveBias

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4059 on: March 22, 2017, 02:10:38 AM »
Greg,  It's all there if a little confusing.

Only 2012 and 2016 have more bottom 3's for the entire year than 2017 has already.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4060 on: March 22, 2017, 02:26:34 AM »
Thanks, CognitiveBias.  You apparently have a bias toward cognitive ability!  :D
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4061 on: March 22, 2017, 03:27:26 AM »
D'oh! I'd figured it out in my final interpretation, but then forgot 2016 was one of the noted exceptions. That's a pretty impressive statistic then. Eyeballing again, I see that 2007 must come close  though. I'll have to fool around with Excel formulas and pivot tables before I completely believe it.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4062 on: March 22, 2017, 05:04:50 AM »
IJIS:

13,540,842 km2(March 21, 2017)lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4063 on: March 22, 2017, 09:14:46 AM »
Sorry, my explanation of daily rankings was a bit convoluted. To confirm, I'm ranking each year for each date of the year. So, all the January 1sts ranked, then all the January 2nds and so on.

The simplest expression is maybe 'bottom 3 days for each date'.

2017 has already had 77 of those. And indeed what i was saying is that only 2012 and 2016 had more bottom 3 days for each date over their entire year than 2017 has already had. 2012 racked them up during the summer, 2016 had them more spread out.

I'll do a cumulative plot later which should show it reasonably clearly.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4064 on: March 22, 2017, 10:14:06 AM »
As mentioned.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4065 on: March 22, 2017, 10:18:06 AM »
Again, but with an essential clarification in the title!

(The graph doesn't include years that don't feature a day in the bottom 3 for the date)
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4066 on: March 22, 2017, 10:29:07 AM »
... I'll have to fool around with Excel formulas and pivot tables before I completely believe it.

Pivot tables! Ah, happy memories.  ;)

Greg, if you want to skip pivot tables, another method you could use is...

1) Layout the data in a grid format (i.e. date or daynumber on one axis, and year on the other)

2) For the first day/date, use the RANK function to give a value (1 = lowest) for each year, then use autofill to apply to every other day/date.

3) For the first year, use COUNTIF to register the number of times it's been in the lowest three. Then use autofill again to repeat this for each year.

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4067 on: March 22, 2017, 10:41:58 AM »
Another bery nice graph, señor!
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4068 on: March 22, 2017, 02:31:55 PM »
Deeenngee, in your graph - does it calculate the top 3 at the current time? Meaning that assuming 2017 takes 1st place tomorrow, some year will reduce its daycount by one in the graph?
In addition, do you have these great graphs updated online somewhere?

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4069 on: March 22, 2017, 04:09:40 PM »
Ah. Methodology flaw alert - thanks Oren. The COUNTIF was looking for days ranked 28th, 27th and 26th. And for dates we haven't had this year yet, they actually only go from 1 to 27.

I've redone it so it counts if a day is ranked 25th, 26th and 27th i.e. the previous 'bottom 3'. That means that 2006, 2007, 2011 and 2015 gain some bottom 3 days - so yes, by the end of their years they have more bottom 3s than 2017 at the moment. But not by much. As things stand,  2017 could well overtake those year by the end of April.

This needs some more work! Good to have friendly peer-reviewers.

I don't have an online graph repository - any suggestions? Google Drive?


 

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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4070 on: March 22, 2017, 05:00:21 PM »
Ah. Methodology flaw alert - thanks Oren. The COUNTIF was looking for days ranked 28th, 27th and 26th. And for dates we haven't had this year yet, they actually only go from 1 to 27.

I've redone it so it counts if a day is ranked 25th, 26th and 27th i.e. the previous 'bottom 3'. That means that 2006, 2007, 2011 and 2015 gain some bottom 3 days - so yes, by the end of their years they have more bottom 3s than 2017 at the moment. But not by much. As things stand,  2017 could well overtake those year by the end of April.

This needs some more work! Good to have friendly peer-reviewers.

I don't have an online graph repository - any suggestions? Google Drive?
OT developer tips:
A. Maybe sort in reverse, and pick 1st, 2nd, 3rd.
B. Or, use small(1), small(2), small(3) if you're calculating in Excel.
About posting online I am clueless.

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4071 on: March 22, 2017, 11:08:46 PM »
Instagram, sepia filtering...
No idea ; P
Nice plots!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4072 on: March 23, 2017, 05:28:42 AM »
IJIS:

13,487,799 km2
(March 22, 2017)down 53,043 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4073 on: March 23, 2017, 06:31:00 AM »
IJIS:

13,487,799 km2
(March 22, 2017)down 53,043 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
And for the month (ever)

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4074 on: March 23, 2017, 07:12:28 AM »
And earliest date on record for crossig 13,5 Mn km2...

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4075 on: March 23, 2017, 07:24:43 AM »
NSIDC has called the min max which occurred by March 7: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/03/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-at-record-low/


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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4076 on: March 23, 2017, 11:27:26 AM »
What a lovely start.... :o :o
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4077 on: March 23, 2017, 07:34:01 PM »
Here's my corrected plot of days in the bottom 3 for each year (lesson: more haste, less speed).
For each date I've calculated the actual ranking to be in the bottom 3; this is needed because of data gaps (eg late July-early August 2002), which throws all the other years' rankings by one place. So I've definitely identified the bottom 3 years for each date now. This gives the correct cumulative plot, attached. I've excluded years that by Dec 31st had accumulated fewer than 20 bottom 3 days for any date.

Thanks to all who responded to my first, rather excitable post on this one - you were sceptical in the proper sense of the word.

Looking at the next 10 days: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2015 and 2016 all have days that are currently 25th out of 27 (see excerpt of rankings attached from my .xls). In the likely event that 2017 extent remains in the bottom 3, its cumulative score will gain one each day, and one of those other years will lose one each time.

The inevitable question is "so what?" Does this (in March) really matter when it comes to the showdown - the summer minimum? I don't really know the answer to that, but my hunch is that it might say something about the overall condition of the ice.

And don't worry, I won't post overly regular updates of the chart! It could get a bit tedious. But maybe monthly... 

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4078 on: March 24, 2017, 05:01:11 AM »
IJIS:

13,464,033 km2(March 23, 2017)down 23,766 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4079 on: March 24, 2017, 01:40:31 PM »
Just did some very quick estimates based on current anomalies with a few minor adjustments and this is what i got on IJIS futures....

April 1st 13.3m
May 1st 12.1m
June 1st 10.2m
July 1st 8.6m
Aug 1st 6.2m
Sept 1st 4m
Sept 15th 3.7m

Of course these are complete nonsense since weather changes can stall the lot but this is near enough to what I see happening this year. Maybe min will be lower.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4080 on: March 25, 2017, 07:55:35 AM »
IJIS:

13,463,820 km2(March 24, 2017)down 213 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Let It Go

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4081 on: March 26, 2017, 03:02:00 AM »
Here's my corrected plot of days in the bottom 3 for each year (lesson: more haste, less speed).
For each date I've calculated the actual ranking to be in the bottom 3; this is needed because of data gaps (eg late July-early August 2002), which throws all the other years' rankings by one place. So I've definitely identified the bottom 3 years for each date now. This gives the correct cumulative plot, attached. I've excluded years that by Dec 31st had accumulated fewer than 20 bottom 3 days for any date.

Thanks to all who responded to my first, rather excitable post on this one - you were sceptical in the proper sense of the word.

Looking at the next 10 days: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2015 and 2016 all have days that are currently 25th out of 27 (see excerpt of rankings attached from my .xls). In the likely event that 2017 extent remains in the bottom 3, its cumulative score will gain one each day, and one of those other years will lose one each time.

The inevitable question is "so what?" Does this (in March) really matter when it comes to the showdown - the summer minimum? I don't really know the answer to that, but my hunch is that it might say something about the overall condition of the ice.

And don't worry, I won't post overly regular updates of the chart! It could get a bit tedious. But maybe monthly...

I've been reading this forum for a few months now, never felt the need to create an account. But i just wanted to say, that really is one of the most amazing graphs i've seen. Please keep updating it for us from time to time :)

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4082 on: March 26, 2017, 08:44:54 AM »
Your profile has been released, Let It Go.
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4083 on: March 26, 2017, 10:34:27 AM »
IJIS:

13,509,359 km2(March 25, 2017)up 45,539 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4084 on: March 27, 2017, 05:30:30 AM »
IJIS:

13,528,354 km2(March 26, 2017)up 18,995 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4085 on: March 27, 2017, 11:07:14 PM »
"Let it go, let it go!!" Kind words indeed. I can only assume you've been surrounded by some very average graphs in the past.

Somethin' else here - IJIS & NSIDC extent anomalies, 2017 vs two different reference periods.

As my sense of scale often disappears when looking at maps of the Arctic: 1.4m sq km (the current variance from the 1990s average) is the same as the combined area of France, Switzerland, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and the UK.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4086 on: March 27, 2017, 11:48:08 PM »
Very interesting Deeennggee

Really simple yet frightening graph there.

Soon wel just be talking about the sea.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4087 on: March 28, 2017, 05:24:53 AM »
IJIS:

13,542,425 km2(March 27, 2017)up 14,071 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4088 on: March 28, 2017, 10:47:45 AM »
Very interesting Deeennggee

Really simple yet frightening graph there.

Soon wel just be talking about the sea.


Or for anyone on the other side of the pond, 1.4m sqkm = California + Oregon + Washington State + Idaho + Nevada
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4089 on: March 28, 2017, 12:33:16 PM »
Can't we stick with standard units? It is 70 times the size of Wales.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4090 on: March 28, 2017, 12:39:04 PM »
Can't we stick with standard units? It is 70 times the size of Wales.

rydw i'n cytuno
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4091 on: March 29, 2017, 04:07:43 PM »
IJIS is 13.57 today

Every up day postpones the eventual inevitable

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4092 on: March 29, 2017, 04:18:32 PM »
IJIS:

13,572,036 km2(March 28, 2017)up 29,611 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Phil.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4093 on: March 29, 2017, 04:54:23 PM »
Can't we stick with standard units? It is 70 times the size of Wales.

rydw i'n cytuno

mi hefyd

Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4094 on: March 30, 2017, 01:04:11 AM »
As the "lowest 3" tracking graph kindly produced by Deeenngee has proved so popular, I thought I'd have a go at presenting the data in a slightly different format. (Some time ago, I spent about 9 months setting up the performance reporting structure in a European Telecom company. A large part of this involved thinking up a variety of ways to present the same data, as not everyone interprets graphical data in the same fashion.)

To allay some of the questions which may arise...

"Lowest 3" totals for previous years will automatically decrease on my spreadsheet in step with any 2017 increments.

The top of the yellow region associated with 2017 shows the highest possible number of "Lowest 3" positions that can still get clocked up by the end of this year

The very small black region shows any 2017 days outside the lowest 3 positions (currently standing at two 4th lowest)


Any (constructive) criticism is obviously welcome.

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4095 on: March 30, 2017, 01:31:55 AM »
"Lowest 3" totals for previous years will automatically decrease on my spreadsheet in step with any 2017 increments.

The top of the yellow region associated with 2017 shows the highest possible number of "Lowest 3" positions that can still get clocked up by the end of this year

The very small black region shows any 2017 days outside the lowest 3 positions (currently standing at two 4th lowest)

Any (constructive) criticism is obviously welcome.

Another great graph!!!  ;) Thanks Bill Fothergill!!!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4096 on: March 30, 2017, 02:37:50 AM »
"Lowest 3" totals for previous years will automatically decrease on my spreadsheet in step with any 2017 increments.

Any (constructive) criticism is obviously welcome.

Now I am not sure that I understand your graph. I thought that on 2005, you compared 2005 against all previous years. But the days in which I find that 2005 is the first, are much more than the ones that you are showing in your graph.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2017, 02:49:15 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4097 on: March 30, 2017, 05:26:40 AM »
IJIS:

13,575,600 km2(March 29, 2017)up 3,564 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4098 on: March 30, 2017, 10:27:18 AM »
Now I am not sure that I understand your graph. I thought that on 2005, you compared 2005 against all previous years. But the days in which I find that 2005 is the first, are much more than the ones that you are showing in your graph.

Juan,
As the title of my graph states, it was just looking at the years 2004-2017. It counts and displays only those years which are currently in the lowest three. That was also implied when I noted that...
""Lowest 3" totals for previous years will automatically decrease on my spreadsheet in step with any 2017 increments."

A sporting analogy perhaps would be to either just note the year in which a current world record was set, or to note every year in which that record had been broken.


More to follow...

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4099 on: March 30, 2017, 06:35:30 PM »
Now I am not sure that I understand your graph. I thought that on 2005, you compared 2005 against all previous years. But the days in which I find that 2005 is the first, are much more than the ones that you are showing in your graph.

Juan,
As the title of my graph states, it was just looking at the years 2004-2017. It counts and displays only those years which are currently in the lowest three. That was also implied when I noted that...
""Lowest 3" totals for previous years will automatically decrease on my spreadsheet in step with any 2017 increments."

A sporting analogy perhaps would be to either just note the year in which a current world record was set, or to note every year in which that record had been broken.


More to follow...

I understand your graph now. Thanks Bill!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.