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Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4100 on: March 31, 2017, 12:36:33 AM »
I understand your graph now. Thanks Bill!
Juan, apologies for the rather brief response earlier. I had arranged to go for a long walk with some friends, and only had time to fire off a few quick words before I had to go out.

I had actually been a bit lazy with my choice of dataset. The .csv file available from the ADS Version 1 page is already laid out in a rectangular format, with the day/month down the vertical y-axis and the year along the horizontal x-axis. As that layout is ideal for this type of analysis, it was something of a no-brainer to use that file. A quick perusal of the full dataset available on Version 2 had already convinced me that there was no point in expanding the analysis, as there were no serious contenders amongst earlier years for positions amongst the "lowest 3".

As I'm sure you know, Version 1 does contain data for 2002 and 2003, but these were deliberately omitted. The data for 2002 is incomplete, and there were no values for 2003 which fell into the "lowest 3" category.

The Version 2 graph which you included does actually highlight a rather bizarre artefact of the data. Although 2005 had about 286 dates which - at the time - were the lowest on record, only 3 of these remain within the current "lowest 3". On the other hand, by the time that all the 2005 data had come in, 2004 was left with just 61 dates which were - temporarily - the lowest on record. At the time of writing, 2004 no longer has any lowest values, but still retains 11 second and 8 third lowest values.

If you look carefully at the chart which you posted, you can see that 2004 is lower than 2005 during an approximately 6 week period, stretching from mid-April until late May. All bar one of the still current 2004 "lowest 3" dates occur during this window. (The other was 29th Feb)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4101 on: March 31, 2017, 05:32:58 AM »
IJIS:

13,567,480 km2(March 30, 2017)down 8,120 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4102 on: March 31, 2017, 09:02:21 AM »
IJIS:

13,567,480 km2(March 30, 2017)down 8,120 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
My  figures put it at second lowest behind 2016,  at 13560921.
 

Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4103 on: March 31, 2017, 10:00:25 AM »
My  figures put it at second lowest behind 2016,  at 13560921.

Yep, and (on the ADS/JAXA/IJIS) database, every "lowest for the date" Arctic sea ice extent value between now and the 27th of June was clocked up during 2016.

It will be very interesting to see the behaviour of the rolling 365-day average, now that there is a noticeable absence of "low hanging fruit" in the immediate future.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4104 on: March 31, 2017, 11:06:05 AM »
There's something about this season that's not giving much comfort from this latest uptick.
Even at second lowest to date, I'd still prefer to have the ice as it was when it was lowest than this pile of mush.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4105 on: April 01, 2017, 11:07:38 AM »
IJIS:

13,555,773 km2(March 31, 2017)down 11,707 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4106 on: April 01, 2017, 01:57:03 PM »
2017 melt may struggle to keep up with 2016 over the next 10 days.

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4107 on: April 01, 2017, 04:58:28 PM »
There's something about this season that's not giving much comfort from this latest uptick.
Even at second lowest to date, I'd still prefer to have the ice as it was when it was lowest than this pile of mush.
Maybe that's because the upticks are being caused by dispersion. Bering sea, for example.
CLICK IMAGE

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4108 on: April 01, 2017, 09:12:23 PM »
A whole lot of melt going on as well.

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4109 on: April 01, 2017, 09:23:43 PM »
Something similar to 2004 is about to happen except at 1m less.  :-[

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4110 on: April 02, 2017, 12:09:01 PM »
IJIS:

13,562,063 km2(April 1, 2017)up 6,290 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4111 on: April 02, 2017, 10:27:32 PM »
My concluding chart for the max season.
https://twitter.com/baddadgags

One liners, dad jokes, other jokes; all mine. Please follow for 2 to 3 moderately amusing instances of the above per week, guaranteed.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4112 on: April 03, 2017, 05:36:43 AM »
IJIS:

13,569,774 km2(April 2, 2017)up 7,711 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4113 on: April 04, 2017, 05:25:57 AM »
IJIS:

13,574,811 km2(April 3, 2017)up 5,037 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DrTskoul

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4114 on: April 04, 2017, 06:42:00 AM »
IJIS:

13,574,811 km2(April 3, 2017)up 5,037 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.

The rollercoaster is picking up potential energy??
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4115 on: April 04, 2017, 08:58:46 AM »
IJIS:

13,574,811 km2(April 3, 2017)up 5,037 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.

The rollercoaster is picking up potential energy??
Good analogy. Could Cross-arctic flights use high sulfur fuel durung summers? Will it destroy the engines? Probably it still wouldn't be enough to prevent the ride of the times.
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4116 on: April 04, 2017, 09:52:24 AM »
Fairly normal in my view: ice extension deficit was concentrated over peripheral areas like st Laurence bay or okhotsk where typically ice melts very early. Which explains why we're now 3rd in the ranking, with the additional dispersion over barents after the unusually cold conditions in the past two weeks.

This melting story is all to be written and as usual synoptic conditions over the arctic in May will be essential to make an educated guess about what is to come in the next few months...

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4117 on: April 04, 2017, 02:21:37 PM »
IJIS:

13,574,811 km2(April 3, 2017)up 5,037 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.

Could easily be 4th lowest in just a few days and hold that position for several more.

Not sure it matters.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4118 on: April 05, 2017, 05:25:41 AM »
IJIS:

13,549,488 km2(April 4, 2017)down 25,323 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4119 on: April 06, 2017, 05:33:33 AM »
IJIS:

13,448,164 km2(April 5, 2017)down 101,324 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4120 on: April 06, 2017, 08:09:32 AM »
Sweet, a century break! :) Now, let's get this show on the road!

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4121 on: April 06, 2017, 11:06:47 AM »
Whats wrong with ya?

Your joking I hope.

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4122 on: April 06, 2017, 11:24:16 AM »
My fault for posting a sarky comment "What melting season ?" a couple of days ago.. (The reverse happened re antarctic refreezing).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"

Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4123 on: April 06, 2017, 10:09:02 PM »
My fault for posting a sarky comment "What melting season ?" a couple of days ago.. (The reverse happened re antarctic refreezing).
Consider yourself confined to the "naughty step".  ;)

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4124 on: April 06, 2017, 10:25:18 PM »
I think the whole world needs to be put on the naughty stairs for causing the arctic to melt

TerryM

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4125 on: April 06, 2017, 11:51:17 PM »
The two of you must have grown up in rough neighborhoods.


Meanest kid I knew had built an (all black) chariot from left over buggy parts, then clad only in bib overalls and Amish hat, he'd hook up old Dobbin and tear down the village street after dark with lanterns ablaze.


Wonder how he turned out.


Terry

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4126 on: April 07, 2017, 02:59:11 AM »
IJIS:

13,448,164 km2(April 5, 2017)down 101,324 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.

Well, so much for 4th lowest.  ???

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4127 on: April 07, 2017, 03:04:05 AM »
This thread, started by Espen on April 18, 2013, 11:56:37 AM , is approaching its 4 year anniversary and has over 1.1 million views.

I declare "Icon" status for the good Espen.

I also think we should have a count down party, balloons, streamers and other party favors and drinks, lots of them.....sans ice.

TerryM

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4128 on: April 07, 2017, 03:11:23 AM »
This thread, started by Espen on April 18, 2013, 11:56:37 AM , is approaching its 4 year anniversary and has over 1.1 million views.

I declare "Icon" status for the good Espen.

I also think we should have a count down party, balloons, streamers and other party favors and drinks, lots of them.....sans ice.
Here Here!!


Terry

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4129 on: April 07, 2017, 05:30:23 AM »
IJIS:

13,399,856 km2(April 6, 2017)down 48,308 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4130 on: April 08, 2017, 10:39:27 AM »
IJIS:

13,378,503 km2(April 7, 2017)down 21,353 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4131 on: April 09, 2017, 11:05:12 AM »
IJIS:

13,386,967 km2(April 8, 2017)up 8,464 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4132 on: April 10, 2017, 08:51:57 AM »
IJIS:

13,336,632 km2(April 9, 2017)down 50,335 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4133 on: April 10, 2017, 02:43:55 PM »
Given the very thin ice, much of it below 2 meters in large stretches of the CAB, I expect 2017 to catch up with 2016 shortly and then track closely but end the melt season below 2017.

Meirion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4134 on: April 11, 2017, 02:02:04 AM »
Interesting - I look forward to 2017 ending up below 2017 - even if I'm struggling with it

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4135 on: April 11, 2017, 08:53:07 AM »
IJIS:

13,318,904 km2(April 10, 2017)down 17,728 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4136 on: April 11, 2017, 02:59:16 PM »
Interesting - I look forward to 2017 ending up below 2017 - even if I'm struggling with it

 :)

arctic-watcher

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4137 on: April 11, 2017, 03:13:54 PM »
Hello, newbie here.
Looking at the other years on the IJIS graph, there was a precipitous drop in 2004 for this week.  I wonder what conditions caused that dramatic free-fall? 
« Last Edit: April 11, 2017, 03:21:01 PM by arctic-watcher »

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4138 on: April 11, 2017, 09:11:11 PM »
Hello, newbie here.
Looking at the other years on the IJIS graph, there was a precipitous drop in 2004 for this week.  I wonder what conditions caused that dramatic free-fall?

Welcome to the ASIF, arctic-watcher. I wanted to tell you to check out the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration comparison page for this period, but then I remembered 2004 isn't on there. Here's a link to the archive though.
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4139 on: April 12, 2017, 09:09:42 AM »
IJIS:

13,250,484 km2(April 11, 2017)down 68,420 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4140 on: April 13, 2017, 08:16:11 AM »
IJIS:

13,190,656 km2(April 12, 2017)down 59,828 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Chuck Yokota

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4141 on: April 13, 2017, 01:07:39 PM »
Heading back into record low extent for the date. Considering the state of the ice, it may keep setting records for months. :(

Csnavywx

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4142 on: April 13, 2017, 01:09:16 PM »
Hello, newbie here.
Looking at the other years on the IJIS graph, there was a precipitous drop in 2004 for this week.  I wonder what conditions caused that dramatic free-fall?



This is the week of the drop in 2004 (surface temperature anomalies in C). So -- most likely melt and/or compaction in the Bering and Atlantic margin.

arctic-watcher

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4143 on: April 13, 2017, 01:35:01 PM »
Thanks Csnavywx (and Espen). A double whammy, Atl. & Pac., would explain it, yes. 
And now we're almost back to lowest again. Hopefully the central pack has built up resilience over winter or things could get ugly, fast, this year. 

pileus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4144 on: April 13, 2017, 05:28:36 PM »
Based on the calendar, the data set, and if the ice is in the state that you all suspect, it would seem that this is the last "non lowest on record" reading for perhaps a very long period of time for this melting season.  But predicting daily and weekly results appears to a bit of a fool's game, so who knows.

It is heartbreaking though to think of the biota that depends on a healthy ice pack and the pace of change that they will be unable to tolerate as extent and volume diminish towards uncharted territory.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4145 on: April 14, 2017, 11:05:14 AM »
In terms of appearances in the "lowest 3" daily value categories, there is definitely scope for some considerable movement over the next month or so.

Starting on the 14th April, 2004 currently has 11 consecutive days in 2nd lowest position, followed by 7 days in 3rd lowest position spread over the two weeks following on from that.

2006 has a solitary 3rd lowest place on the 14th April, but then has 28 consecutive days with either 2nd or 3rd lowest position starting on the 28th April.

2007 has 8 days at 3rd lowest and then 3 days at 2nd lowest between the 15th and the 27th of April. (That year then hides in the shadows until the second half of July.)

(For those who have been on another planet, 2016 currently holds every lowest daily value between now and the 27th of June.)


The current disposition of "lowest 3" positions can be seen on the following chart, and from this, it can clearly be seen that 2017 has already racked up far more "lowest" places that any year except 2012 and 2016.

If one considers total numbers in the "lowest 3", 2006 and 2017 currently have, respectively, the  4th and 5th most appearances - but those positions will reverse when the data for the 14th April becomes incorporated. 2007 has the third most "lowest 3" appearances, but as 2017's value for 13th April is lower than 2007's value for the 21st April, that situation is unlikely to continue for much longer.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4146 on: April 14, 2017, 11:17:11 AM »
IJIS:

13,155,325 km2(April 13, 2017)down 35,331 km2 and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4147 on: April 15, 2017, 04:03:49 AM »
Based on the calendar, the data set, and if the ice is in the state that you all suspect, it would seem that this is the last "non lowest on record" reading for perhaps a very long period of time for this melting season. 

I doubt that 2017 will be able to maintain the lowest on record value for much of the next two months.  Last year there was an additional 400 K km^2 of ice in the north Pacific compared to this year. For 2017 to stay ahead of 2016 it would have to see a massive reduction in extent in the export seas of Barents, Baffin and Greenland. However these are the areas that are seeing massive inflows from the main Arctic Basin which are largely being replaced by thin ice that will melt out rapidly later.  I expect the noteworthy aspects over the next two months will be the low average thickness and lower volume pointing to a rapid decline in extent in summer.

gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4148 on: April 15, 2017, 05:59:29 AM »
(For those who have been on another planet, 2016 currently holds every lowest daily value between now and the 27th of June.)

We read the Arctic Sea Ice Forum here on Pluto too, you know. Earth bigot!


P.S. Pluto is so a planet.

Paddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4149 on: April 15, 2017, 08:29:31 AM »
@Bill,

That chart of "lowest three" ice extents - does it measure the lowest three so far up to the year in question or does it consider future years too? ie if 2012 set a record for a given day which 2016 subsequently beat, would the day be ranked as a "lowest" or a "second lowest" for 2012?