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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4200 on: May 03, 2017, 05:25:54 AM »
IJIS:

12,585,016 km2(May 2, 2017)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4201 on: May 04, 2017, 05:27:15 AM »
IJIS:

12,524,980 km2
(May 3, 2017)down 60,036  km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2017, 04:20:16 PM by Espen »
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4202 on: May 05, 2017, 05:30:35 AM »
IJIS:

12,496,944 km2(May 4, 2017)down 28,036 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4203 on: May 05, 2017, 07:42:29 AM »
Still kicking against the progression of the melt season. I think I'll check PIOMAS daily. Any visible thinning around the edges?
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4204 on: May 05, 2017, 08:25:47 AM »
Still kicking against the progression of the melt season. I think I'll check PIOMAS daily. Any visible thinning around the edges?
Unfortunately PIOMAS don't update daily. You can check SMOS daily, I will post an image and link at the melting season thread. Edit: actually SMOS is supposed to be updated only during the freezing season.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4205 on: May 06, 2017, 10:21:56 AM »
IJIS:

12,492,801 km2(May 5, 2017)down 4,143 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4206 on: May 06, 2017, 10:32:14 AM »
Soon ice will be back to normal....

Hurray!!

Unfortunately not.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4207 on: May 06, 2017, 10:47:39 PM »
Soon ice will be back to normal....

Hurray!!

Unfortunately not.

yep, as we know mobile and fractured ice is using more space, exactly like crush ice uses more space than solid ice or even ice cubes if the don't lay extremely awkward. the effect on melting rate iater this spring will be horrendous IMO, we all remember the "P.." word and it will be even worse this time, at least provide there will be no extremely cool weather conditions.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4208 on: May 07, 2017, 09:13:13 AM »
IJIS:

12,455,817 km2(May 6, 2017)down 36,984 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4209 on: May 08, 2017, 05:27:37 AM »
IJIS:

12,405,466 km2(May 7, 2017)down 50,351 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4210 on: May 08, 2017, 03:36:09 PM »
2016 is building a big lead. Will be interesting to see if 2017 continues to track closely with the mid aughts.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4211 on: May 08, 2017, 03:50:16 PM »
2016 is building a big lead. Will be interesting to see if 2017 continues to track closely with the mid aughts.

I would guess that 2016 will continue to lead for another month or so, at which time it will surrender first place. Fast as ice extent dropped last May, June was pretty slow. June 2016 lost 1.762M km2 of extent; by comparison, 2012 dropped by 3.007M km2 over the same period. And for what it's worth, indications are that 2017 will see summer decreases closely aligned with 2012.

Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4212 on: May 08, 2017, 06:58:54 PM »
2016 is building a big lead. Will be interesting to see if 2017 continues to track closely with the mid aughts.

I would guess that 2016 will continue to lead for another month or so, at which time it will surrender first place. Fast as ice extent dropped last May, June was pretty slow. June 2016 lost 1.762M km2 of extent; by comparison, 2012 dropped by 3.007M km2 over the same period. And for what it's worth, indications are that 2017 will see summer decreases closely aligned with 2012.

I have been looking at the ice thickness and distribution and comparing it with 2016 and to me it looked like this year would be less favorable for melting compared to last year so I'm not sure we are likely to ever catch up with last year in terms of lowest extent for season. But so much depends on the dynamics of the melt season. Bottom line is we don't know what it's going to do. Who would have predicted 2017 would have dropped from 1st place to 5th place?
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4213 on: May 08, 2017, 10:58:29 PM »
I have been looking at the ice thickness and distribution and comparing it with 2016 and to me it looked like this year would be less favorable for melting compared to last year so I'm not sure we are likely to ever catch up with last year in terms of lowest extent for season. But so much depends on the dynamics of the melt season. Bottom line is we don't know what it's going to do. Who would have predicted 2017 would have dropped from 1st place to 5th place?

I'll place money on the certainty that 2017 will move below 2016 within the next eight weeks, and stay there for some time.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4214 on: May 09, 2017, 12:00:21 AM »
Who would have predicted 2017 would have dropped from 1st place to 5th place?

Given the amount of dispersion that's been going on during the winter and spring, I think that 2017 could have dropped from first much sooner than it did - or that it might have not achieved the lowest extent to begin with.

I tried to find mean monthly surface wind maps for the arctic but was unable to. Such a map would help reveal those places where dispersion is playing a key role in driving up extent. As the sun rises higher in the sky, less and less ice will be able to form in the cracks of our highly-dispersed floes, while this year's thin ice can melt out relatively quickly given normal melt conditions. Yup, looks like the proverbial drop off the cliff is in the cards, especially if the arctic weather goes south.

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4215 on: May 09, 2017, 01:52:59 AM »
Quote
Yup, looks like the proverbial drop off the cliff is in the cards, especially if the arctic weather goes south.
   We probably should be thankful for all the reprieves that we have had, and we know the big drops are coming soon.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4216 on: May 09, 2017, 05:27:19 AM »
IJIS:

12,323,824 km2(May 8, 2017)down 81,642 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

southseas

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4217 on: May 09, 2017, 10:32:36 AM »
I'll place money on the certainty that 2017 will move below 2016 within the next eight weeks, and stay there for some time.

Andrew Slater (who has a pretty good record) might take that bet

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4218 on: May 09, 2017, 10:50:55 AM »
Andrew Slater (who has a pretty good record) might take that bet

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

I'm afraid he won't (see here).
Compare, compare, compare

crandles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4219 on: May 09, 2017, 12:40:55 PM »

I'll place money on the certainty that 2017 will move below 2016 within the next eight weeks, and stay there for some time.

copied to Stoat
http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2017/05/03/economist-farewell-to-the-arctic/

southseas

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4220 on: May 09, 2017, 01:57:03 PM »
I'm afraid he won't (see here).

Ah, that is sad news.

Well it seems his impressive model lives on ... and it isn't predicting 2017 will overtake 2016 ... for the next 50 days at least (but of course then we get to the bit that matters)

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4221 on: May 09, 2017, 03:04:20 PM »
Well it seems his impressive model lives on ... and it isn't predicting 2017 will overtake 2016 ... for the next 50 days at least (but of course then we get to the bit that matters)

Well, I gave a time frame of eight weeks--that is, 56 days. And I'll still put that money on it.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4222 on: May 09, 2017, 03:14:22 PM »
Well it seems his impressive model lives on ... and it isn't predicting 2017 will overtake 2016 ... for the next 50 days at least (but of course then we get to the bit that matters)

Well, I gave a time frame of eight weeks--that is, 56 days. And I'll still put that money on it.
I'm with you Jim. The greater extent combined with lower volume and lower average thickness all suggest to me a fairly rapid extent collapse in June, probably faster than 2012.   I suspect  we will stay behind 2016 for the next 4 weeks because there is very little ice left  in the Pacific which  is where we would first  look for dramatic extent loss in May.  But after that I  foresee dramatic declines through June and July. 

In my view only an exceptionally cool summer can prevent a new record low in volume, area and extent.

Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4223 on: May 09, 2017, 03:21:24 PM »
I'll place money on the certainty that 2017 will move below 2016 within the next eight weeks, and stay there for some time.

Andrew Slater (who has a pretty good record) might take that bet

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

The Slater prediction for 2017 puts extent running neck and neck with 2016 throughout June.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

southseas

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4224 on: May 10, 2017, 02:00:48 AM »


The Slater prediction for 2017 puts extent running neck and neck with 2016 throughout June.

I'm only eyeballing it flicking between the two pages and comparing the gap to the long term average, but it doesn't look that close to me.

Also last year's  prediction was running well ahead of what actually transpired until a mysterious late July correction brought it back to what turned out to be very close to spot on.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4225 on: May 10, 2017, 05:26:51 AM »
IJIS:

12,286,734 km2(May 9, 2017)down 37,090 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2017, 04:12:01 PM by Espen »
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4226 on: May 11, 2017, 05:28:34 AM »
IJIS:

12,301,918 km2(May 10, 2017)up 15,184 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4227 on: May 11, 2017, 07:07:53 AM »
Who would have predicted 2017 would have dropped from 1st place to 5th place?

Given the amount of dispersion that's been going on during the winter and spring, I think that 2017 could have dropped from first much sooner than it did - or that it might have not achieved the lowest extent to begin with.


I agree with that. It's what would have been predicted. But when something different happens sometimes you need to shift prognosticators. The way ice is dispersed on DMI modeled ice thickness, for example, it looks to be in better condition for resisting rapid ice melt compared to 2016 at this time. The idea that the ice is very thin and ready to collapse is what was described last year. But had it not been for the late summer cyclone it wouldn't have dropped as much as it did. If there is no summer cyclone in 2017 the ice won't come close to dropping as far as it did in 2016.
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4228 on: May 11, 2017, 07:24:36 AM »
To prove that the theory not always works and the devil in in the details: the AO is -ve, the NAO is -ve and the PNA is +ve, yet the extent upticks in May and 2017 gets lost in the middle of the other recent years.
This is the MYI not melting out in the Atlantic front and Barentz momentarily. On the contrary, more ice is being pushed toward the Atlantic Ocean  due to the prevailing circulation.
That the extent is relatively high is not so relevant, but whatever it is its tendency will be in a couple of weeks though, to trap more solar radiation or not.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4229 on: May 11, 2017, 07:28:32 AM »
UPTICK in May?! :o How unusual is that?

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4230 on: May 11, 2017, 07:38:59 AM »
From Wipneus extent graphs. Even Baffin shows an uptick in the JAXA-based curve (in purple)
Edit. Only from these regions I notice 600-700k of excess with respect to 2016, and we're not counting the excess in the CAB (no clear Atlantic front, yet).Will this be a story in 2017?
« Last Edit: May 11, 2017, 07:46:18 AM by seaicesailor »

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4231 on: May 11, 2017, 07:42:00 AM »
You can see the little fringe areas with thin growth.
Other areas opened up, but growth came out ahead.

Darvince

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4232 on: May 11, 2017, 07:56:47 AM »
There is not much MYI in the Barents Sea, only up against Svalbard. There is probably about as much MYI in the Barents as there is in Baffin Bay, which is to say not much.

http://www.aari.ru/resources/d0015/arctic/gif.en/2017/20170509.gif
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4233 on: May 11, 2017, 08:22:02 AM »
There is not much MYI in the Barents Sea, only up against Svalbard. There is probably about as much MYI in the Barents as there is in Baffin Bay, which is to say not much.

http://www.aari.ru/resources/d0015/arctic/gif.en/2017/20170509.gif
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
Right, just checked Cryosat thickness and Barentsz is bound to meltout unless something happens. Baffin always does and Greenland sea is the one with indigestion  (as is the area north of Svalbard)

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4234 on: May 11, 2017, 01:52:53 PM »
extent doesn't tell us much considering the farctured ice conditions and the mobility that was mentioned above with the effect that we in parts find MYI in places where last year for example FYI was melting out upon arrival. there will be a very sudden drop later on but anyhow, i strongly believe that we should shift focus away from extent to volume and in parts area at this time of the melting season. we're all too much used to things and how to do/use them while things have changed dramatically and ancient tools and procedures are not only becoming useless but at times start to be misleading.
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4235 on: May 11, 2017, 02:31:32 PM »
extent doesn't tell us much considering the farctured ice conditions and the mobility that was mentioned above with the effect that we in parts find MYI in places where last year for example FYI was melting out upon arrival. there will be a very sudden drop later on but anyhow, i strongly believe that we should shift focus away from extent to volume and in parts area at this time of the melting season. we're all too much used to things and how to do/use them while things have changed dramatically and ancient tools and procedures are not only becoming useless but at times start to be misleading.
I'm just saying that the 700k or so that 2017 lags behind 2016 are located in Barentz, Greenland, and Baffin. Is it against the law? (in a ice-extent-dedicated thread)
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4236 on: May 11, 2017, 02:33:22 PM »
Ancient tools... are you talking about the sextant, or an apparatus mounted on a satellite?

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4237 on: May 11, 2017, 04:26:18 PM »
Ancient tools... are you talking about the sextant, or an apparatus mounted on a satellite?
Captain Cook did very well with a sextant and a chronometer. Many months and many thousands of miles after leaving England, his calculation of lat & long of Port Vila harbour is only one or two kilometers out of position.
On the 2017 melting thread I have also pointed to the somewhat laggardly start to the melting season. Extent will always be the main way info on arctic sea ice melt will be presented to an indifferent public.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4238 on: May 11, 2017, 04:34:10 PM »
From Wipneus extent graphs. Even Baffin shows an uptick in the JAXA-based curve (in purple)
Edit. Only from these regions I notice 600-700k of excess with respect to 2016, and we're not counting the excess in the CAB (no clear Atlantic front, yet).Will this be a story in 2017?
I suspect all three regions (Baffin, Greenland, Barentsz) have more ice than 'normal' entirely due to imported ice.  As these are all (ultimately) ice-killing areas, I don't think the excess ice means much for what the summer will bring.

(Some probably consider it appropriate to discuss extent on a blog-thread dedicated to a product that outputs extent data.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4239 on: May 11, 2017, 05:46:57 PM »
From Wipneus extent graphs. Even Baffin shows an uptick in the JAXA-based curve (in purple)
Edit. Only from these regions I notice 600-700k of excess with respect to 2016, and we're not counting the excess in the CAB (no clear Atlantic front, yet).Will this be a story in 2017?
I suspect all three regions (Baffin, Greenland, Barentsz) have more ice than 'normal' entirely due to imported ice.  As these are all (ultimately) ice-killing areas, I don't think the excess ice means much for what the summer will bring.

(Some probably consider it appropriate to discuss extent on a blog-thread dedicated to a product that outputs extent data.)

Per Scribbler's article entitled: "Record-Thin Sea Ice Faces Big Predicted Arctic Warm-up This Week", the hurt will be coming to Arctic Sea ice next week:

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/05/10/record-thin-sea-ice-faces-big-predicted-arctic-warm-up-this-week/

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dnem

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4240 on: May 11, 2017, 06:10:58 PM »
UPTICK in May?! :o How unusual is that?

There are a handful in the record. 2004 had a two day uptick of 19664 and 8586 on May 25 and 26.  There are a sprinkling of others but they are pretty rare.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4241 on: May 11, 2017, 07:21:44 PM »
UPTICK in May?! :o How unusual is that?

There are a handful in the record. 2004 had a two day uptick of 19664 and 8586 on May 25 and 26.  There are a sprinkling of others but they are pretty rare.

As dnem said, May upticks are rare. I happen to have a spreadsheet based on the ADS Version 1 .csv (basically, this is from 2003 onwards) already set up to shown daily increments, and this reveals some even later upticks...

04 June 2016: +3,537
08 June 2015: +1,662
30 July  2013: +4,102

There are 4 more near the end of August, and then the colour scheme starts transitioning from red to black.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4242 on: May 12, 2017, 10:06:17 AM »
IJIS:

12,266,647 km2(May 11, 2017)down 55,271 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4243 on: May 13, 2017, 12:50:04 AM »
IJIS:

12,266,647 km2(May 11, 2017)down 55,271 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.

Hmm. You'd think there would be more celebration that the ice is hanging on, at least for now.
Feel The Burn!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4244 on: May 13, 2017, 08:37:36 AM »
IJIS:

12,188,934 km2(May 12, 2017)down 77,713 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4245 on: May 13, 2017, 05:04:27 PM »
IJIS:

12,266,647 km2(May 11, 2017)down 55,271 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.

Hmm. You'd think there would be more celebration that the ice is hanging on, at least for now.

I had a glass of champagne yesterday. I'll try a whole bottle later today. Maybe that will help.  ;)
Compare, compare, compare

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4246 on: May 13, 2017, 07:15:52 PM »
IJIS:

12,266,647 km2(May 11, 2017)down 55,271 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.

Hmm. You'd think there would be more celebration that the ice is hanging on, at least for now.

I had a glass of champagne yesterday. I'll try a whole bottle later today. Maybe that will help.  ;)

hehe... the moment we celebrate it will drop LOL, reminds me of my childhood when i was going to a hockey match in my home town they lost and when i stayed home they won, of course a subjective impression but that's the way i feel quite often hence i prefer not to celebrate before the sun has set.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4247 on: May 14, 2017, 07:56:49 PM »
Hmm. You'd think there would be more celebration that the ice is hanging on, at least for now.

I dunno. Maybe the fact that 2012 ended up setting record lows in nearly every metric despite having 356,000 square kilometers more extent than we see right now--an area roughly the size of Montana--taught the smart people a lesson about celebrating too early. IOW: only a fool makes September extent predictions based on April/May conditions

Keep your cork in for now.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4248 on: May 15, 2017, 08:34:51 AM »
Some decent drops the last two days but we are still 6th lowest and a whooping 800K behind 2016... Even 2004 had lower extent at this date of year.

RikW

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4249 on: May 15, 2017, 11:24:31 AM »
we are still 400.000 km2 lower than 2012 and 140.000 km2 lower than 2007 at this time of the year, which were lowest and 3rd lowest ever recorded, so based on that still 'on schedule' for a new record, around 2.6/2.7k km2

Or we are ~800.000 above 2016, so we won't get below 5 million km2 this year.

Or the gap with the 2000's average is halved in 2 months (800k earlier, 400k now), so in 4 months (2*400k) we will be 400k higher than the 2000's average, so around 6 million km2


Just pick the one you want, they are all based on the same set of numbers ;)