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Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4750 on: August 06, 2017, 10:55:50 AM »
Was pretty sure in spring the 2017 would be rivalling 2012 by now. Wouldn't have been astonished by a half a million lead by this time. It could be the estimates of the thicknesses of second-year floes are more accurate than what i guessed. In other words, i could have been wrong in april and may and henceforth during the summer. I'm rather happy to see this likely end up over 2.5 mkm2
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magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4751 on: August 06, 2017, 11:17:32 AM »
Was pretty sure in spring the 2017 would be rivalling 2012 by now. Wouldn't have been astonished by a half a million lead by this time. It could be the estimates of the thicknesses of second-year floes are more accurate than what i guessed. In other words, i could have been wrong in april and may and henceforth during the summer. I'm rather happy to see this likely end up over 2.5 mkm2

if all the currently remaining ice would be building a solid ice-sheet as it once was we would be well below that mark. fragmentation and the resulting dispersion are the main reason IMO why the numbers don't tell the entire story but eventually will. just discount from the current values a certain percentage for all the blue between floes that is clearly visible on sat-images and one would be surprised how low we really are. always keep in mind the 15% threshold and that all above that counts as 100% even though it's often a lot less than that, especially nowadays.
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Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4752 on: August 07, 2017, 07:44:17 AM »
If we just discount a certain percentage from the current values, shouldn't we also discount a certain percentage from the 2012 values, for the blue on the sat images in 2012?   That 15% threshold was there in 2012 also, so if you going to take a certain percentage off of this years values, then you should take if off of the 2012 value for a valid comparison. 

Likewise, if you are going to claim compaction would put it lower than 2012 then you should account for compaction for 2012.  Either way, if you don't do the same for both years, you're doing an invalid comparison. 

 
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4753 on: August 07, 2017, 10:44:54 AM »
I think what is being said is that 2012 still had large, contiguous floes whereas this years pack does not show this? In 2012 a 1km sq would be covered with 100% ice whereas this year the 1km squarer might only have 16% of ice yet be counted as the full 100%?

The '15%' or greater ( and 30% and greater) were brought in to deal with peripheral , fragmented ice and not designed to work well over the central basin where 'roundups' can make for a large difference in the numbers?

Didn't someone contact NSIDC earlier on in the year concerning this issue?

Certainly last year but I think maybe the year before? showed this 'fragmented pack' across the central basin? The 'crackoplalypse' events, since 2013, have tended to reduce floes sizes by riddling the pack with 'fault lines' (over late winter) which readily fall apart once melt season arrives leaving us with a very broken pack?
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magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4754 on: August 07, 2017, 11:47:51 AM »
I think what is being said is that 2012 still had large, contiguous floes whereas this years pack does not show this? In 2012 a 1km sq would be covered with 100% ice whereas this year the 1km squarer might only have 16% of ice yet be counted as the full 100%?

The '15%' or greater ( and 30% and greater) were brought in to deal with peripheral , fragmented ice and not designed to work well over the central basin where 'roundups' can make for a large difference in the numbers?

Didn't someone contact NSIDC earlier on in the year concerning this issue?

Certainly last year but I think maybe the year before? showed this 'fragmented pack' across the central basin? The 'crackoplalypse' events, since 2013, have tended to reduce floes sizes by riddling the pack with 'fault lines' (over late winter) which readily fall apart once melt season arrives leaving us with a very broken pack?

+1 thanks
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Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4755 on: August 07, 2017, 01:01:14 PM »
JAXA extent for 6 August: 5909224 km2
10 June predict-o-matic forecast for 6 August:  5909240 km2
Difference: 16 km2

JAXA extent loss since 10 June:  4652764 km2
Forecast extent loss:  4652748 km2
Accuracy:  99.9997%

Not bad...




 :)

BenB

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4756 on: August 07, 2017, 01:22:17 PM »
Gray-Wolf, Magnamentis,

What you are describing is a problem with extent, but not with area. According to the Home Brew numbers, area is running slightly further behind 2012 than extent, so there isn't any evidence that this year is fundamentally different from other years in that sense. In fact, 2017 is ahead of 2015 in terms of extent, but behind for area, and further behind 2016 for area than extent. The ice in the central basin has been pretty fragmented in summer for a number of years now, and while this year is bad, it doesn't seem to be significantly worse than other years since 2012.

arctic-watcher

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4757 on: August 07, 2017, 02:11:36 PM »
Ned, the predict-o-matic is spot on.  Where do you describe its program? 

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4758 on: August 07, 2017, 06:15:04 PM »
IJIS:

5,909,224 km2(August 6, 2017)down 52,473 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4759 on: August 07, 2017, 08:34:04 PM »
2017 cannot keep up with 2012, despite the very poor ice conditions.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4760 on: August 07, 2017, 09:29:05 PM »
2017 cannot keep up with 2012, despite the very poor ice conditions.

not yet, just because 2012 started to drop to the bottom on day "X" does not mean that other years can't start the race earlier or later. it's too early to tell. as it was mentioned a few times the condition of the ice would "allow" for a sudden death of huge areas while this in no way means that it must happen. should we by any means look at a relatively calm and cool late summer it won't happen and the canon ball would be dodged for the umpteenth time this year.

generally as i said earlier it would certainly be good for the discussion if we were less jumping to conclusions because of daily ups and downs of the curve compared to other years, only 1 or 2 days ago there were voices calling the cliff (was possible) and now that we got one bin up others are calling the race off (it's possible) we simply don't know while my opinion is clear, i expect at least one or two bigger drops over a few days ahead and opted all season for second lowest in the polls.
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Pavel

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4761 on: August 07, 2017, 09:40:47 PM »
If the bottom melting  is 10-20 cm per week so 0 could be reached for huge areas till the freezing starts. It's more than a month remaining. Everything is possible including GAC(s). It's quite interesting what will happen in next 6 days

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4762 on: August 08, 2017, 05:35:08 AM »
IJIS:

5,804,668 km2(August 7, 2017)down 104,556 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Rob Dekker

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4763 on: August 08, 2017, 10:13:56 AM »
Hi Espen,
I don't want to rock the boat much, since this is not a big deal.
But your greeting "Have a ice day!" should really be "Have an ice day!", not just for English grammar reasons, but also because it enforces the pun.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2017, 10:25:32 AM by Rob Dekker »

Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4764 on: August 08, 2017, 10:50:52 AM »
Hi Espen,
I don't want to rock the boat much, since this is not a big deal.
But your greeting "Have a ice day!" should really be "Have an ice day!", not just for English grammar reasons, but also because it enforces the pun.
Well spotted Rob.

As it was clear what Espen meant, I have been simply reading his sign-off phrase as if the "n" was present.

This just goes to show the power of the written word, as exemplified in that well know aphorism...

"The penis; mightier than the S word"     ;) :-[
« Last Edit: August 08, 2017, 11:01:47 AM by Bill Fothergill »

slow wing

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4765 on: August 08, 2017, 11:32:40 AM »
 ;D this discussion has already taken place.

The outcome was that Espen is mightier than the N word.  :P

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4766 on: August 08, 2017, 02:33:12 PM »
Sow ex 10 t has dropped by an century a gain!? :-\

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4767 on: August 08, 2017, 02:43:46 PM »
On a more serious note we are now in 13th place (i think) if ice started growing today.

Theres only 12 years left to pass.

Odds are 2nd to 4th place but even then the overall constant bar is lowering all the time.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4768 on: August 08, 2017, 02:45:50 PM »
Hi Espen,
I don't want to rock the boat much, since this is not a big deal.
But your greeting "Have a ice day!" should really be "Have an ice day!", not just for English grammar reasons, but also because it enforces the pun.
The absence of the n ensures that Espen is not confused with a bad typist who meant to say 'nice'. 8)

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4769 on: August 08, 2017, 03:36:39 PM »
;D this discussion has already taken place.

The outcome was that Espen is mightier than the N word.  :P

I.e. if you want to be decieving you may still pronounce the 'n'.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4770 on: August 08, 2017, 04:47:11 PM »
On a more serious note we are now in 13th place (i think) if ice started growing today.

Theres only 12 years left to pass.

Odds are 2nd to 4th place but even then the overall constant bar is lowering all the time.

While I don't believe we will hit a new minimum, I would not be surprised if we have the latest minimum on record given the weak state of the ice and if we have a stormy autumn.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4771 on: August 08, 2017, 08:45:46 PM »
a good page in this thread, many possibilities have been mentioned and no non-sense has spoiled it, we're getting to terms ;) ;)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4772 on: August 09, 2017, 05:24:34 AM »
IJIS:

5,668,358 km2(August 8, 2017)down 136,310 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

mmghosh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4773 on: August 09, 2017, 05:31:26 AM »
Cliff?

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4774 on: August 09, 2017, 05:50:55 AM »
An average drop of 97,052 km2 on August 1-8 and an average drop of 102,411 km2 on the last 5 days (August 4-8).
Seems that the moderate cyclone is destructive enough, given the weakness of the ASI.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Pavel

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4775 on: August 09, 2017, 07:16:35 AM »
It could hit 5.mln some days earlier than 2007-2016 and late season decrease rate should be high cause at least half of the remaining ice is very vulnerable also some compaction evenets and\or GACs may happen

Jim Hunt

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4776 on: August 09, 2017, 11:35:16 AM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4777 on: August 09, 2017, 01:42:49 PM »
Some data (Jaxa Sea Ice Extent as at 8th August). Average quoted is 2007-2016.

The last few days of above average extent loss has changed things a bit. 2nd lowest now seems much more possible (though a 2012 minimum does not).
By now on average 84% (8.4 million) of extent loss for the year is done. 2017 extent loss is 8.2 million.
Average extent loss in the remainder of the year is 1.6 million. The maximum extent loss from Aug 8 to minimum in the last 10 years was 2 million (2012), the lowest 1.34 million (2013). So there is still scope for significant change. However, for a record low minimum, extent loss of 2.5 million would be required. So I am sticking with 3.75 to 4.25 million in the poll.
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DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4778 on: August 09, 2017, 02:41:36 PM »
Some data (Jaxa Sea Ice Extent as at 8th August). Average quoted is 2007-2016.
Using the average can be an issue here because the trend for losses from this date forward shows an annual increase of over 35,000 Km^2 per year..  So the trend figure for loss suggests the 'expected' value for this year should be about 200K Km^2 greater than the average for the past 10

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4779 on: August 09, 2017, 03:14:54 PM »

Using the average can be an issue here because the trend for losses from this date forward shows an annual increase of over 35,000 Km^2 per year..  So the trend figure for loss suggests the 'expected' value for this year should be about 200K Km^2 greater than the average for the past 10

Thanks DavidR.
"When the facts change, so must opinions". John Maynard Keynes
A bit more knowledge and a new graph coming on.
Quibbles (yes, there always has to be a quibble or two):-
- 2012 being so unusual. Does this distort a reasoned assessment of an underlying trend?
- I am not saying that any increase is the "expected" increase. The table merely says what extent loss has to happen in the remainder of the season for a specified minimum, and compares it with the 10 year average extent reduction. The original idea (much earlier in the season) was to show how much out of the ordinary extent loss had to be for a record low, let alone a Blue Ocean event (1 million km2), a sort of counterweight to posts in other threads.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4780 on: August 10, 2017, 05:36:25 AM »
IJIS:

5,589,248 km2(August 9, 2017)down 79,110 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4781 on: August 10, 2017, 06:19:53 AM »
Quibbles (yes, there always has to be a quibble or two):-
- 2012 being so unusual. Does this distort a reasoned assessment of an underlying trend?
- I am not saying that any increase is the "expected" increase. The table merely says what extent loss has to happen in the remainder of the season for a specified minimum, and compares it with the 10 year average extent reduction. The original idea (much earlier in the season) was to show how much out of the ordinary extent loss had to be for a record low, let alone a Blue Ocean event (1 million km2), a sort of counterweight to posts in other threads.
2012 and 2008, which  are both  3-400K above the trend line mean that a hyperbolic trend line through the table gives a slightly lower final result and shows a declining increase in the trend overall.

With the impact of todays figures the trend figure for, loss for the remainder of 2017, using either measure means that the 'expected' result (3.88-3.98M) is now below the 2007 figure of 4.01M.

Both our perspectives are relevant as often with the values declining acheiving an average loss becomes harder. The increasing trend in late ice loss is consistent with the view that the Arctic is warming and therefore the melting seasons is extending.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4782 on: August 11, 2017, 05:36:05 AM »
IJIS:

5,535,934 km2(August 10, 2017)down 53,314 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4783 on: August 13, 2017, 04:15:58 PM »
IJIS:

5,397,050 km2(August 12, 2017)and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4784 on: August 13, 2017, 04:21:35 PM »
Down 139k over the two days.

gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4785 on: August 13, 2017, 06:30:48 PM »
2017 is now below the average minimum from the 2000s (2000 - 2009), which was 5,479,091.

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4786 on: August 13, 2017, 06:55:17 PM »
In 11th place at present with 34 days approx left

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4787 on: August 13, 2017, 11:58:28 PM »
 79k and 58k drops account for 137k

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4788 on: August 14, 2017, 12:51:49 AM »
79k and 58k drops account for 137k
And yet the 2-day number is 138.884=139k. The miracles of rounding.

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4789 on: August 14, 2017, 01:08:33 AM »
Ok, that resolves that. oren's in charge of payroll.

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4790 on: August 14, 2017, 01:30:28 AM »
The miracles of ocd

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4791 on: August 14, 2017, 03:12:20 AM »
Ok, that resolves that. oren's in charge of payroll.

 ;D

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4792 on: August 14, 2017, 05:26:43 AM »
IJIS:

5,322,280 km2(August 13, 2017)down 74,770 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4793 on: August 14, 2017, 05:49:46 AM »
In 11th place at present with 34 days approx left

12th place, right? For three more days or so.

The miracles of ocd

 :P

Sterks

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4794 on: August 14, 2017, 11:36:06 AM »
In binary, pauldry is correct.
Some possibilities to end in 10th place.

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4795 on: August 14, 2017, 12:28:35 PM »
Some numbers. Average = last 10 years 2007-2016.
On average 7/8ths (8.75 million km2) of extent loss is done, just 1.25 million to go. The maximum additional extent loss was 1.5 million km2 (in 2012), the lowest 1 million km2 (in 2013).
The range of the minimum still seems to be about 3.8 to 4.3 million, with 4.0 to 4.1 million km2 the most likely, as it has been for a good while. I will be surprised if this end of season comes up with a surprise.
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Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4796 on: August 14, 2017, 01:31:25 PM »
Another visualization to complement gerontocrat's graph and table:



The upper dots (blue) are the actual minima from the past decade. 
The lower dots (red) are where 2017 would finish up if it experienced the same extent loss from this date forward as each of the previous years (2007-2016) did.

It's kind of neat how the projections fall almost perfectly within the 3.75-4.25 bin from the poll.  The only outlier would be the 2013-version projection that would end up at 4.31.  At the other extreme, following a 2012-like trajectory would put 2017 at 3.79.

Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4797 on: August 14, 2017, 01:40:29 PM »
By my calculation, the odds of finishing in various places are as follows:

1st:  0%
2nd:  39%
3rd:  11%
4th:  36%
5th:  01%
6th:  12%
7th:  01%
8th or worse:  ~0%

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4798 on: August 14, 2017, 02:12:36 PM »
2 weeks ago, I had arrived at a similar conclusion. I did this with no statistical calculations (which clearly you have used) for the dubious and, frankly, embarrassing reason that I have lost the patience and easy grasp of knowledge and facility to do such a thing.

In a couple of days, 2012 began its race to the bottom. Will 2017 continue to play with the pack or will it make a similar dive?

The SIE dive occurred during the GAC of 2012...

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054259/abstract

...and a large amount of ice extended precariously into the Chukchi and ESS, vulnerable to such a storm.

I do not believe the conditions are right for a repeat and expect that 2017 will continue to dance with the lower end of the pack. 2nd place is still a strong possibility. Would not be surprised to see 4th and 7th place is not out of the question.

I realize this difficulty in doing the maths, quite properly, consigns my comments to mere opinion and conjecture while yours carry weight.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2017, 02:22:11 PM by Shared Humanity »

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4799 on: August 14, 2017, 02:58:10 PM »
2 weeks ago, I had arrived at a similar conclusion. I did this with no statistical calculations (which clearly you have used)
My statistical calculations are simply arithmetic, and I mean confined to + - x / % plus the square and the cube. Once upon a time I had the idea but not the energy to write a book called environmental arithmetic, to show how our understanding of what is happening to our planet can be improved by the use of the simplest of calculations, e.g. to show that the capacity of the oceans as a heat sink is just over 1,000 (one thousand) times that of the atmosphere.  That then makes one think about what will be the ice killer in the Arctic in the end.

Any success that these looks at possible outcomes has had is entirely due to the way that since early June the melting season has been so averagely average (to date). To me this has been the strangest thing about this season. I was convinced until June that the collapse in volume would be matched by a great big melt but the data refused to oblige. Ho hum.
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