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Author Topic: IJIS  (Read 1572378 times)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4900 on: August 31, 2017, 04:11:47 PM »
IJIS:

4,723,734 km2(August 30, 2017)down 51,604 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4901 on: September 01, 2017, 02:20:31 PM »
2 days with above average extent loss!
As an item of interest extent on 31 August at  4,668,135 km2 is just 7,007 km2 less than the 2007-16 average for the day.
The table is simply there for your amusement
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4902 on: September 01, 2017, 03:41:21 PM »
IJIS:

4,668,135 km2(August 31, 2017)down 55,599 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

mmghosh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4903 on: September 02, 2017, 05:26:20 AM »
OK, so this is where I officially give up trying to make sense of this melting season, IJIS.  Thanks gerontocrat.  Any ideas why the melt suddenly picked up?

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4904 on: September 02, 2017, 08:40:02 AM »
There was a lot of compaction in my view due to the persisting action of an HP on beaufort sea. This is also causing a sisignificant temperature drop though. As usual in this part of the season we're probably having refreezing on the CAB and melting/compaction of peripheral ice. They will tend to offset each other as we move towards the minimum...

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4905 on: September 02, 2017, 09:15:23 AM »
IJIS:

4,629,238 km2(September 1, 2017)down 38,897 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4906 on: September 02, 2017, 03:56:59 PM »
OK, so this is where I officially give up trying to make sense of this melting season, IJIS.  Thanks gerontocrat.  Any ideas why the melt suddenly picked up?

because bottom melt takes over while surface refreeze is sparse or not yet existent and the ice is very thin hence more and more parts of the puzzle are going to disappear as long as there will be no serious surface freezing for which it will take temps around -10C to kick off in serious and over significant areas to compensate for bottom melt. if on of those storms eventually will make it into the arctic, let's say one of the kind of last december/january, some would be heavily surprised to see half of the reminder or close to that go within 2-3 days.

apparently we dodged the canonball but who can tell whether there isn't a cluster bomb under way ?
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 09:50:06 PM by magnamentis »
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gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4907 on: September 02, 2017, 04:14:09 PM »
OK, so this is where I officially give up trying to make sense of this melting season, IJIS.  Thanks gerontocrat.  Any ideas why the melt suddenly picked up?
Nope. This is where the A-Team and other climate scientists attempt to get the data that affects melt and freeze and bung it into models that make Excel look like a Ouija board.
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4908 on: September 03, 2017, 05:23:02 AM »
There was a lot of compaction in my view due to the persisting action of an HP on beaufort sea. This is also causing a sisignificant temperature drop though. As usual in this part of the season we're probably having refreezing on the CAB and melting/compaction of peripheral ice. They will tend to offset each other as we move towards the minimum...
To add - there are large areas of thin, highly fractured ice as well, which is vulnerable to bottom melt, even as air temperatures drop.  Until they drop down to -5/10C, that can continue to happen.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4909 on: September 04, 2017, 05:48:59 AM »
IJIS:

4,632,780 km2(September 2, 2017)up 3,542 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

arctic-watcher

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4910 on: September 04, 2017, 06:50:07 AM »
Up another 5K+ km2 tonight. 

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4911 on: September 04, 2017, 10:42:39 AM »
Whoops - extent loss stalled again.
Meanwhile the opposite story in the Antarctic - freezing has stalled.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 10:53:22 AM by gerontocrat »
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4912 on: September 04, 2017, 05:24:15 PM »
IJIS:

4,638,084 km2(September 3, 2017)up 5,304 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4913 on: September 05, 2017, 04:16:25 PM »
IJIS:

4,640,111 km2(September 4, 2017)up 2,027 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

TerryM

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4914 on: September 05, 2017, 06:34:22 PM »
This is a most unexpected wind down to the season.
After the very mild winter I didn't necessarily expect a new record, but I also never expected us to fall this far back after so much global warming.


Whenever I think I understand Arctic Ice, it slaps me in the face.
Terry

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4915 on: September 05, 2017, 07:36:00 PM »
This is a most unexpected wind down to the season.
After the very mild winter I didn't necessarily expect a new record, but I also never expected us to fall this far back after so much global warming.


Whenever I think I understand Arctic Ice, it slaps me in the face.
Terry

+1

good school however, i often say that who claims he got it has just proven he/she didn't because we never really will understand/know it all.

the part i love with this things is that we learn, the second highest goal after love, and then we get cut back to real size by cosmic powers, this considering that our planet and all on and in it is a part of the universe/cosmos ;)
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Coffee Drinker

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4916 on: September 05, 2017, 11:34:57 PM »
Think we have to learn that the downward trend of the last decade may not be representative of the future. Arctic warmed much faster than average. Is this the law? Maybe arctic will now warm at similar rates as global average or even slower? Just some thoughts.

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4917 on: September 05, 2017, 11:35:12 PM »
This is a most unexpected wind down to the season.
After the very mild winter I didn't necessarily expect a new record, but I also never expected us to fall this far back after so much global warming.


Whenever I think I understand Arctic Ice, it slaps me in the face.
Terry

I am exactly where you are.

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4918 on: September 06, 2017, 12:38:40 PM »
Still melting.

Down to 4.59 now

Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4919 on: September 06, 2017, 12:52:11 PM »
and now below the 2010 minimum.  Eighth place is now ruled out; 6th is most likely (81%).  With several days of extent losses we could be closing in on the 2008 minimum (4.50) soon.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4920 on: September 06, 2017, 04:05:30 PM »
IJIS:

4,586,568 km2(September 5, 2017)down 53,543 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4921 on: September 08, 2017, 05:52:53 AM »
IJIS:

4,532,092 km2(September 6, 2017)down 54,476 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4922 on: September 08, 2017, 08:14:48 PM »
IJIS:

4,515,297 km2(September 7, 2017)down 16,795 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4923 on: September 09, 2017, 10:03:35 AM »
IJIS:

4,486,326 km2(September 8, 2017)down 28,971 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4924 on: September 09, 2017, 11:20:50 AM »
That takes IJIS to 6th lowest on record for the year with another 220K required to go to 5th and over 230K to go to 4th.  Only one year (2005 : 293680 km^2) has lost that much after this date but  it is possible.

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4925 on: September 09, 2017, 12:33:07 PM »
Still a tiny chance of extent getting down to 4.25 million km2 - then at least my guess would be in the correct bin (just).
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iceman

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4926 on: September 09, 2017, 03:04:44 PM »
I'll guess the minimum will be on the 16th, following steady compaction on the Atlantic front and a partial reversal of the refreeze in the CAA.

Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4927 on: September 09, 2017, 11:45:44 PM »
That takes IJIS to 6th lowest on record for the year with another 220K required to go to 5th and over 230K to go to 4th.  Only one year (2005 : 293680 km^2) has lost that much after this date but  it is possible.

It's also possible we hit the minimum already as it did last year. Anything is possible. Another two weaks of melting and it would finish third maybe. If melting is over I think we finish the year in 7th
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4928 on: September 10, 2017, 08:06:09 AM »
IJIS:

4,472,225 km2(September 9, 2017)down 14,101 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2017, 10:17:51 PM by Espen »
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4929 on: September 11, 2017, 05:55:21 AM »
That takes IJIS to 6th lowest on record for the year with another 220K required to go to 5th and over 230K to go to 4th.  Only one year (2005 : 293680 km^2) has lost that much after this date but  it is possible.

It's also possible we hit the minimum already as it did last year. Anything is possible. Another two weaks of melting and it would finish third maybe. If melting is over I think we finish the year in 7th

As we are already at 6th lowest for the annual minimum we can't finish 7th.

Paddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4930 on: September 11, 2017, 09:57:31 AM »
Still a tiny chance of extent getting down to 4.25 million km2 - then at least my guess would be in the correct bin (just).

I made the same guess  (hardly surprising, as it was the forum's modal value), bit I've now resigned myself to having been wrong.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4931 on: September 11, 2017, 03:50:43 PM »
IJIS:

4,473,157 km2(September 10, 2017)up 932 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4932 on: September 12, 2017, 01:10:44 PM »
Back up to 4.5

Is it over

4.47 min?

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4933 on: September 12, 2017, 03:57:16 PM »
IJIS:

4,500,947 km2(September 11, 2017)up 27,790 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4934 on: September 13, 2017, 06:30:30 AM »
That takes IJIS to 6th lowest on record for the year with another 220K required to go to 5th and over 230K to go to 4th.  Only one year (2005 : 293680 km^2) has lost that much after this date but  it is possible.

It's also possible we hit the minimum already as it did last year. Anything is possible. Another two weaks of melting and it would finish third maybe. If melting is over I think we finish the year in 7th

As we are already at 6th lowest for the annual minimum we can't finish 7th.

Doh! You are right. I regretted posting that after I sent it. I was looking at NSIDC and saw that arctic ice is in 7th place according to their data and will likely finish in 7th there. In Jaxa, it is 6th by the slimmest of margins just "ahead" of 2008. Arguably a statistical tie for 6th.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4935 on: September 13, 2017, 03:52:14 PM »
IJIS:

4,502,715 km2(September 12, 2017)up 1,768 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4936 on: September 13, 2017, 03:58:00 PM »


Doh! You are right. I regretted posting that after I sent it. I was looking at NSIDC and saw that arctic ice is in 7th place according to their data and will likely finish in 7th there. In Jaxa, it is 6th by the slimmest of margins just "ahead" of 2008. Arguably a statistical tie for 6th.

So a rebound year right?

Errrr....maybe more of a dead cat bounce.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4937 on: September 13, 2017, 04:07:30 PM »


So a rebound year right?

Errrr....maybe more of a dead cat bounce.
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Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4938 on: September 14, 2017, 05:44:18 AM »
IJIS:

4,494,583 km2(September 13, 2017)down 8,132 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4939 on: September 14, 2017, 07:15:37 AM »
This year has made me lose faith in the rapid disappearance (before 2025) of the summer Arctic Sea Ice. It may be the proper scientists now have this right and the schedule for 2040 is valid. Maybe the Greenland ice sheet has helped ASI via the same mechanism that has been in effect over the other side of the planet (the katabatic winds + less salty surface). Believing now the warmth by AGW will spread more readily to densely habitated areas and the effects included, are those that we've occasionally seen already. The spring-summer-autumn instability of the arctic atmospheric circulation should continue to mess and increase the effects. Thus expecting more if the same (the rerouting of atmospheric moisture should continue its effects and increase these. The energy difference between oceans and land areas coninue to lock these in place all the way to 30th parallel (hadley cell isn't yet disrupted, much, as the itcz is fast to spread the high energy of tropical waters over land). Nevertheless tropics continue to warm up and the 150000 deaths (in a small area) by heat exhaustion mentioned in the tropical cyclone season thread does not sound too impossible, implausible or even improbable now. Maybe we'll see this before summer ASI is totally gone.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4940 on: September 14, 2017, 09:16:52 AM »
One guess is that we probably won't see many new record lows during the next decade or so. Not until the PDO again switch back to its negative phase. It just be a coincidence, but the PDO started to switch from its negative phase back in 2013 to the positive phase that we now are in. All of the melting years from 2013 and onward have been fairly quiet. We also need to remember that +PDO phase means a more El Niño prone atmosphere while the opposite is true during the negative phase.

Just a coincidence or does the +PDO have a bigger impact on the SIE than we might think? If anyone has time and skills it would be very interesting to see how and if different parameters for the time lap 1979-1998 and 1999-2012 (2013) differs (if they are) e.g MSLP, temperature, precipitation and so on.

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4941 on: September 14, 2017, 12:10:39 PM »
The general trend is still very much downward

Will we ever see a year with a 5m min again?

Also the lower the IJIS goes in Summer the earlier it will restart to grow back
as those areas on the top of the world get colder sooner and refreeze happens there.

2040 may be a valid timeframe but this year the Arctic had a very cool Summer
and we still finished 6th.

There will be certainly one or two into 3m mins in the next 5 years if you ask me.

Adam Ash

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4942 on: September 14, 2017, 01:35:50 PM »
One guess is that we probably won't see many new record lows during the next decade or so. ...
You may be right.  I have just re-read Hansen et al Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms (2015).  It seems likely that increased glacier melt in both Antarctic and Greenland will lead to increased cold fresh surface water in both areas, and, importantly reduction or even shutdown in the Arctic Meridional Overturning Circulation - which will reduce under-ocean heat transport to the Arctic.  The heat from the global GHG forcing spikes in equatorial areas, resulting in stronger atmospheric energy gradients.  So I suspect that all this could suppress ice sea ice loss, depending on where the cold ice melt water ends up.  Quite how that will impact sea ice loss in the central Arctic is unclear.

Pavel

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4943 on: September 14, 2017, 01:37:03 PM »
Some years like 2016 had areas of below 15% slush but it wasn't really ice free. I'd prefer to count end-September extent to rank annual minimums

Sterks

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4944 on: September 14, 2017, 02:55:25 PM »
Some years like 2016 had areas of below 15% slush but it wasn't really ice free. I'd prefer to count end-September extent to rank annual minimums
That goes both ways. Hard to consider some >15% areas of last year as not ice free for practical purposes, like negligible volume aggregated, avaliable heat for release, and even apt for navigation

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4945 on: September 14, 2017, 03:19:30 PM »
This year has made me lose faith in the rapid disappearance (before 2025) of the summer Arctic Sea Ice. It may be the proper scientists now have this right and the schedule for 2040 is valid. Maybe the Greenland ice sheet has helped ASI via the same mechanism that has been in effect over the other side of the planet (the katabatic winds + less salty surface). Believing now the warmth by AGW will spread more readily to densely habitated areas and the effects included, are those that we've occasionally seen already. The spring-summer-autumn instability of the arctic atmospheric circulation should continue to mess and increase the effects. Thus expecting more if the same (the rerouting of atmospheric moisture should continue its effects and increase these. The energy difference between oceans and land areas coninue to lock these in place all the way to 30th parallel (hadley cell isn't yet disrupted, much, as the itcz is fast to spread the high energy of tropical waters over land). Nevertheless tropics continue to warm up and the 150000 deaths (in a small area) by heat exhaustion mentioned in the tropical cyclone season thread does not sound too impossible, implausible or even improbable now. Maybe we'll see this before summer ASI is totally gone.

Not sure about 2040.

In 2007, SIE minimum fell about 1.6 million km2 below the previous season and more than 1 million km2 below the previous record minimum. In 2012, SIE fell perhaps 1.2 million km2 below the previous season and nearly 1 million km2 below the previous record, set in 2007. We may only need a couple of more of these breakthrough losses to get where we are going and this could easily happen before 2040.

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4946 on: September 14, 2017, 03:36:28 PM »
Volume is still below the linear trend line implying a blue ocean event by 2030. I am with A-Team's comments about the lack of sufficient data. With Trump's administration wanting to hack the NOAA / NASA climate research budgets that data deficiency is likely to continue.
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A-Team

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4947 on: September 14, 2017, 05:20:20 PM »
This time of year, it is quite easy to track the area of open water at the 3.125 km resolution provided by UH AMSR2 via a single mouse click in any image processing software and histogram read-out.

There's a lot to recommend this over opaque legacy algorithms at far poorer resolution. The archive goes back to August 2012 so the seasonality of open water could readily be quantitated for the last five years.

'Binary thinking' -- blue ocean or not blue ocean -- just doesn't tell the climate impact story. Which is happening already.

While this is a rather flat year for picking the date of maximal open water which in any event has little comparative significance year-on-year, so far that is Sept 12th. According to both ESRL and Hycom (13th to 19th shown), another day or two of more open water is still to come.

The first image shows the mask used to exclude (yellow boundary) highly variable ice in the Fram, Nares, and CAA channels that would otherwise distort measurement of open water in the Arctic Ocean proper. Pixel counts serve quite accurately here to measure relative area because there's little day-to-day latitudinal variability.

The bottom animation fixes the Sept 12 maximum (right panel) and compares it to Sept 1-21 (2nd from right), then takes the difference (3rd from right) or just subtracts (left panel). Differencing the 12th with itself gives the two black panes at the small pause. The later frames show the Hycom forecast of maximal open water may be the 12th itself.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2017, 06:51:15 PM by A-Team »

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4948 on: September 15, 2017, 05:54:10 AM »
IJIS:

4,499,173 km2(September 14, 2017)up 4,590 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Unmex Chingon

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4949 on: September 15, 2017, 06:17:29 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!