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Vergent

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #300 on: July 25, 2013, 04:34:22 PM »
IJIS:

7,303,281 km2 (July 24, 2013)  down 70,469 km2 from previous.

277,500 km2 above 2012.



To properly compare 2013 to 2012 JAXA SIE, you have to subtract 60k from 2013. Last year they were manually revising, removing phantom ice during the AMSR2 validation period.

So, I make it 217k above 2012. That is unless you believe the Aral dry sea bed to be sea ice.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #301 on: July 25, 2013, 04:42:49 PM »
Vergent;

I dont know what to add and what to subtract, because there are so many spots around that may be or may not be calculated, eg. Bremen is today reporting sea ice around Newfoundland ???
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #302 on: July 25, 2013, 05:44:28 PM »
Vergent;

I dont know what to add and what to subtract, because there are so many spots around that may be or may not be calculated, eg. Bremen is today reporting sea ice around Newfoundland ???

The historical area for the Aral sea was 68,000 km^2.

The revisions to JAXA SIE last year:

7/24   +59k
7/25   +67k
7/26   +65K
7/27   +69K

If you look at the monitor and see ice on the Aral, subtract 60k from the SIE for that day to compare to 2012.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #303 on: July 26, 2013, 10:57:20 AM »
IJIS:

7,276,406 km2 (July 25, 2013) down 28,750 km2 from previous (revised)

298,593 km2 above 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #304 on: July 27, 2013, 10:56:44 AM »
IJIS:

7,254,531 km2
(July 26, 2013) down 21,875 km2 from previous.

368,750 km2 above 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #305 on: July 27, 2013, 03:57:47 PM »
IJIS:

7,254,531 km2
(July 26, 2013) down 21,875 km2 from previous.

368,750 km2 above 2012.
:-\ Every time it seems we're about to catch 2012, a few slow days makes it seem like we'll never do it.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #306 on: July 27, 2013, 05:12:37 PM »
we're not going to catch 2012. forget it already

Vergent

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #307 on: July 27, 2013, 05:15:54 PM »
IJIS:

7,254,531 km2
(July 26, 2013) down 21,875 km2 from previous.

368,750 km2 above 2012.
:-\ Every time it seems we're about to catch 2012, a few slow days makes it seem like we'll never do it.



The cyclone is spreading the ice cap out. Its just pumping more air in the balloon. It's pushing ice on to warmed water in the Beaufort. Where, when concentration drops to 15%, the extent balloon will pop. Will we catch 2012? It depends on the weather and the true thickness of the remaining ice, and the unknown unknowns.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #308 on: July 27, 2013, 06:37:00 PM »
IJIS:

7,254,531 km2
(July 26, 2013) down 21,875 km2 from previous.

368,750 km2 above 2012.
:-\ Every time it seems we're about to catch 2012, a few slow days makes it seem like we'll never do it.



The cyclone is spreading the ice cap out. Its just pumping more air in the balloon. It's pushing ice on to warmed water in the Beaufort. Where, when concentration drops to 15%, the extent balloon will pop. Will we catch 2012? It depends on the weather and the true thickness of the remaining ice, and the unknown unknowns.

Vergent

Also pushing ESS ice into the Chukchi which is even warmer than the Beaufort.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #309 on: July 27, 2013, 08:04:23 PM »
IJIS:

7,254,531 km2
(July 26, 2013) down 21,875 km2 from previous.

368,750 km2 above 2012.
:-\ Every time it seems we're about to catch 2012, a few slow days makes it seem like we'll never do it.

The cyclone is spreading the ice cap out. Its just pumping more air in the balloon. It's pushing ice on to warmed water in the Beaufort. Where, when concentration drops to 15%, the extent balloon will pop. Will we catch 2012? It depends on the weather and the true thickness of the remaining ice, and the unknown unknowns.

Vergent

Also pushing ESS ice into the Chukchi which is even warmer than the Beaufort.

... Which judging from the SST's there, could melt out at 10CM+ a day. Yup. Ballon is getting stretched pretty thin.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #310 on: July 28, 2013, 10:57:15 AM »
IJIS:

7,237,344 km2 (July 27, 2013) down 22,969 km2  from previous
 (revised)

444,375 km2 above 2012.

Now behind 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #311 on: July 28, 2013, 11:29:40 PM »
Not sure how much will show up on the next update but Jaxas AMSR2 SIC is showing massive compaction of the weak ice.  Probably going to be a couple big drops coming up.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #312 on: July 29, 2013, 10:56:28 AM »
IJIS:

7,175,938 km2 (July 28, 2013) down 61,406 km2 from previous.

452,657 km2 above 2012.

Still behind 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #313 on: July 29, 2013, 04:10:30 PM »
IJIS:

7,175,938 km2 (July 28, 2013) down 61,406 km2 from previous.

452,657 km2 above 2012.

Still behind 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.

2012 has a really steep drop in August. Unless 2013 can best that, it will be hard to catch up.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #314 on: July 30, 2013, 05:47:04 AM »

2012 has a really steep drop in August. Unless 2013 can best that, it will be hard to catch up.

A common misconception about "extent", is that it is ice. The definition for JAXA is "the area that is covered by 15% ice or more within a pixel". Areas that are only 85% open water are being counted as "extent". The cyclone has been spreading things out. This has not been creating more ice to melt, it has been putting more open water among the ice. This will increase the rate of melting, not decrease it. Ice at low concentrations melts away in days.



Here is the TOPAZ4 projection for Aug 4.



Here is CT for now. We are probably in for massive losses in the coming days. I like to say the extent balloon is about to pop. Its not so much that the melting rate will suddenly accelerate, it's that large areas will drop below 15%.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #315 on: July 30, 2013, 08:06:44 AM »

2012 has a really steep drop in August. Unless 2013 can best that, it will be hard to catch up.

A common misconception about "extent", is that it is ice. The definition for JAXA is "the area that is covered by 15% ice or more within a pixel". Areas that are only 85% open water are being counted as "extent". The cyclone has been spreading things out. This has not been creating more ice to melt, it has been putting more open water among the ice. This will increase the rate of melting, not decrease it. Ice at low concentrations melts away in days.

Here is CT for now. We are probably in for massive losses in the coming days. I like to say the extent balloon is about to pop. Its not so much that the melting rate will suddenly accelerate, it's that large areas will drop below 15%.

Vergent

That concentration projection on TOPAZ looks positively awful.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #316 on: July 30, 2013, 10:57:27 AM »
IJIS:

7,117,344 km2 (July 29, 2013) down 69,219 km2 from previous (revised).

467,344 km2 above 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #317 on: July 31, 2013, 10:56:24 AM »
IJIS:

7,034,688 km2 (July 30, 2013) down 82,656 km2 from previous.

478,594 km2 above 2012.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2013, 11:19:51 AM by Espen »
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #318 on: July 31, 2013, 11:10:14 AM »
Espen,
You mean 479k km2 above 2012, not 311k km2, right?

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #319 on: July 31, 2013, 11:20:09 AM »
Yes  ;)
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #320 on: July 31, 2013, 11:49:37 AM »
Ok  :)

The next 3 days 2012 lost 118k, so a bit over 39k/day.
The next 9 days after that 2012 lost 1033k, so about 115k/day.

It now seems very unlikely this year will be able to keep up with 2012. Where would all the energy needed for that come from? Only if the remaining ice now is extremely thin, would there still seem to be a chance of catching up. But that doesn't appear to be the case, so likely by Aug 11 the difference will have grown considerably bigger than 479k.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #321 on: August 01, 2013, 10:57:31 AM »
IJIS:

6,980,781 km2 (July 31, 2013) down 66,084 km2 from previous (revised).

481,562 km2 above 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #322 on: August 01, 2013, 02:15:16 PM »
IJIS:
481,562 km2 above 2012.

IJIS reports a July 2013 loss of -2,835,625 km2
The daily loss rate was -91,472 km2

The July 2012 IJIS loss was -2,645,469 km2
The daily loss rate was -85,338 km2

Overall, IJIS reports 2013 lost -190,156 km2 more SIE than 2012.
The margin continues to close.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #323 on: August 01, 2013, 07:32:54 PM »

2012 has a really steep drop in August. Unless 2013 can best that, it will be hard to catch up.

A common misconception about "extent", is that it is ice. The definition for JAXA is "the area that is covered by 15% ice or more within a pixel". Areas that are only 85% open water are being counted as "extent". The cyclone has been spreading things out. This has not been creating more ice to melt, it has been putting more open water among the ice. This will increase the rate of melting, not decrease it. Ice at low concentrations melts away in days.



Here is the TOPAZ4 projection for Aug 4.



Here is CT for now. We are probably in for massive losses in the coming days. I like to say the extent balloon is about to pop. Its not so much that the melting rate will suddenly accelerate, it's that large areas will drop below 15%.

Vergent

Where did you get this TOPAZ4 forecast map, if I may ask?

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #324 on: August 01, 2013, 09:11:22 PM »
Where did you get this TOPAZ4 forecast map, if I may ask?

http://myocean.met.no/ARC-MFC/ I suspect.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #325 on: August 01, 2013, 09:54:57 PM »
Where did you get this TOPAZ4 forecast map, if I may ask?

http://myocean.met.no/ARC-MFC/ I suspect.

Thanks, I'll add that to my list of pages to keep an eye on until September...

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #326 on: August 02, 2013, 10:56:31 AM »
IJIS:

6,927,813 km2 (August 1, 2013) down 52,968 km2 form previous.

460,782 km2 above 2012. (Revised Thanks to Lennart  ;))
« Last Edit: August 02, 2013, 02:24:54 PM by Espen »
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #327 on: August 02, 2013, 12:40:42 PM »
I will be traveling for week, starting tomorrow, Vergent promissed to keep you updated with the IJIS numbers.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #328 on: August 02, 2013, 02:18:47 PM »
Thanks for the daily updates and have a good trip!

The difference with 2012 seems to be 461k km2 instead of 467k km2.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #329 on: August 03, 2013, 03:52:33 PM »
Aug 1, 6.937344 revised -43k

Aug 2, 6.892188              -45k

455k above 2012

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #330 on: August 04, 2013, 03:58:55 PM »
Aug 3  6,853,750 -39k

534k above 2012

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #331 on: August 05, 2013, 03:24:16 PM »
Aug 4, 6,788,281  -65k

574k above 2012

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #332 on: August 06, 2013, 01:58:21 PM »
Aug 5,  6,692,344  -96k

573k above 2012

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #333 on: August 07, 2013, 12:50:51 PM »
Not to do Vergent's job for him.

But Jaxa dropped another -96K. 

Now down to 6,598,281 km2 (August 6, 2013). 

With the bad pattern just starting.

Going to be very very wild.
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Vergent

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #334 on: August 07, 2013, 03:54:59 PM »
Thanks Friv,

Aug 6,  6,598,281 -96k

667k above 2012

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #335 on: August 07, 2013, 04:29:48 PM »
It would be nice to have the numbers for 2007 and 2011 for the upcomming week or so – if it's not to much trouble  ???

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #336 on: August 07, 2013, 04:50:29 PM »
It would be nice to have the numbers for 2007 and 2011 for the upcomming week or so – if it's not to much trouble  ???

Here's a start.

2011 was at 6,231,719km2 (367k below 2013) to the 6th, and dropped an average of 75.9k/day over the next week

2007 was at 5,815,156km2 (783k below 2013) to the 6th, and dropped an average of 62.3k/day over the next week
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #337 on: August 07, 2013, 05:08:13 PM »
Have a look here:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

2007 - Aug 6: 5,815,156 Aug 13: 5,379,219 = -435,937 = -62k/day on average
2011 - Aug 6: 6,231,719 Aug 13: 5,700,313 = -531,406 = -76k/day on average
2012 - Aug 6: 5,931,094 Aug 13: 5,178,750 = -752,344 = -107/day on average

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #338 on: August 07, 2013, 05:27:22 PM »
Thanks for the calc/ref – 2012 seems to be beyond reach – it would be interesting to see if 2013 catches up with 2007 and 2011 in the following week.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #339 on: August 07, 2013, 10:09:27 PM »
Thanks for the calc/ref – 2012 seems to be beyond reach – it would be interesting to see if 2013 catches up with 2007 and 2011 in the following week.

The current storm is the wild card.  We won't know until Saturday just how thoroughly it is going to chew up the pack.  Over on the blog, there's some suggestions that it could loose 3-400K just over the next couple of days. 750K by the 13th isn't that far out of reach.  We'll know by the end of the storm.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #340 on: August 08, 2013, 11:19:13 AM »
Aug 7: 6,509,219 km2 -89k

749k above 2012

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #341 on: August 08, 2013, 01:49:45 PM »
Aug 7: 6,509,219 km2 -89k

749k above 2012

Thanks LVDL

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #342 on: August 08, 2013, 02:05:47 PM »
You're welcome, Vergent.

I'll be travelling for the next two weeks, so this was just a one time occasion :)

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #343 on: August 08, 2013, 07:21:11 PM »
What's Needed to Surpass Previous Years??

As we all know, without the current storm, 2013 had little or no chance of finishing lower than 2007 let alone break 2012's record.  For the remaining 30-45 days of the melt season we may need another storm and a late ending to the melt season.

Previous years final Extent and end date:

YEAR   Date    Extent
2007   24-Sep   4,254,531
2010   18-Sep   4,813,594
2011   09-Sep   4,526,875
2012   16-Sep   3,489,063

2013 Extent Loss Needed to Match Previous Years:

YEAR   Extent Loss Needed   
2007   2,254,688   
2010   1,695,625   
2011   1,982,344   
2012   3,020,156

Assuming Melt Season Only Lasts Another 30 Days Only, Average Daily Loss Required to Match  Previous Years:

YEAR   Daily Average Loss
2007   75,156
2010   56,521
2011   66,078
2012   100,672

Assuming Melt Season Lasts Another 45 Days, Average Daily Loss Required to Match  Previous Years:

YEAR   Daily Average Loss
2007   50,104
2010   37,681
2011   44,052
2012   67,115

Unless something very unusual happens such a multiple storms and other factors to extend the melt season, I don't see any path to beating 2012's record this years.  However, 2010 and 2011 are well within reach, while 2007 is "iffy" at best.   

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #344 on: August 08, 2013, 08:08:35 PM »
This chart show where the extent is today compared to 2007, 2011 & 2012 as well as given the delta between today and the final low value for the previous years.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #345 on: August 09, 2013, 06:18:29 AM »
Sorry,

bed time. Took on the responsibility of updating, but on the west coast of america(GOD save the queen), My bedtime is before it updates. The last few days, people have been picking up the slack and posting in a timely manor. Thank you. I refer you to Phonetic punctuation.

https://www.google.com/search?q=phonetic+punctuation&oq=phonetic+punctuation&aqs=chrome.0.69i57j69i61j0l3j69i62.9823j0&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Vergent Bill
« Last Edit: August 19, 2013, 12:19:03 PM by Vergent »

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #346 on: August 09, 2013, 01:55:15 PM »
OK, we can all take turns doing this.  Latest IJIS/JAXA SIE is 6,443,438 (-70k). 

858k behind 2012 (which had a -175k loss... hard to keep up with that).



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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #347 on: August 10, 2013, 11:28:45 AM »
9 Aug 2013: IJIS/JAXA SIE = 6.379,219 (-64k)

869k behind 2012

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #348 on: August 11, 2013, 01:17:10 PM »
IJIS JAXA 6,328,281 km2 (August 10, 2013)  (-51k)

Bottoming at 4,750,000 in third week of September?

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #349 on: August 11, 2013, 02:16:54 PM »
Aug 9,   6,385,938(revised) -58k
Aug 10,  6,328,281           -57k

1,067K above 2012

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