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Author Topic: IJIS  (Read 1572784 times)

Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4550 on: July 10, 2017, 01:28:32 PM »
Being so damned unpredictable whilst at the same time knowing the direction of the trend is what makes Arctic watching so painfully addictive.
Not sure if this is what you had in mind, but I think you're correct in a quite literal sense. As I understand it, in Skinnerian psychology "intermittent variable rewards" are the most habit-forming. 

If our predictions about the ice were boringly correct every time, we'd soon give up on this.  It's the erratic nature of the process that keeps us coming back.

Archimid

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4551 on: July 10, 2017, 01:54:58 PM »
Funny how 2010 has the record PIOMAS volume loss (virtually tied with 2012). I imagine that was at least in part due to the loss of the old ice.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4552 on: July 10, 2017, 02:40:03 PM »
Ned. Yes, that was exactly my thought. If you then add in humans immense ability for pattern recognition, we get to read far too much into the tea-leaves.
It's probably typical behaviour for people who are disinterested (not uninterested, actually very interested, but just not having the ability to affect the outcome).

Way too off topic now - I'll get back to lurking.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4553 on: July 11, 2017, 05:33:00 AM »
IJIS:

8,268,760 km2(July 10, 2017)down 75,279 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4554 on: July 11, 2017, 02:00:38 PM »
At least one weather-forecast-watcher predicted the current melt slowdown (resulting in "5th lowest measured for the date.") and a following (relative) cliff.  Will this cause 5th place to be maintained or will there be some catch-up to the extent leaders (or was the forecasting inaccurate)?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4555 on: July 11, 2017, 09:00:38 PM »
At least one weather-forecast-watcher predicted the current melt slowdown (resulting in "5th lowest measured for the date.") and a following (relative) cliff.  Will this cause 5th place to be maintained or will there be some catch-up to the extent leaders (or was the forecasting inaccurate)?


jep, while if you read my and the linked post in the melting season thread, that could relativate the slowdown thingy. this is meant to be a YES but not a NO but ;) enjoy further and thanks for the great input all over the place

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg120387.html#msg120387
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Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4556 on: July 12, 2017, 04:17:01 AM »
Some foretold a possible slowing down of ice loss. Could it be happening now? Will it last?
Feel The Burn!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4557 on: July 12, 2017, 05:34:19 AM »
IJIS:

8,160,236 km2
(July 11, 2017)down 108,524 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

E.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4558 on: July 13, 2017, 05:26:36 AM »
Poor FeeltheBurn. Every time he opens his mouth there's another century drop.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4559 on: July 13, 2017, 06:15:38 AM »
IJIS:

8,039,230 km2(July 12, 2017)down 121,006 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4560 on: July 13, 2017, 06:23:58 AM »
Down 300k+ in three days.

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4561 on: July 13, 2017, 06:45:35 AM »
Please espen, could you speed it up? My guess is starting to be too low. :-P
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gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4562 on: July 13, 2017, 06:47:21 AM »
Look at 2017 clinging by a hair to its top 5 rank! Sometimes the ice really acts like it can hear footsteps coming up behind it, and that spurs it to up its game. I know the ice isn't sentient or anything like that, but, well ... it's not, right?

Hyperion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4563 on: July 13, 2017, 12:09:45 PM »
I don't know about double and triple century breaks, but a series of (single) century breaks could be in the making given the current weather forecast.

is the ijis data daily or is is one of these five day running mean finangles. interested in my pork pie prospects here! A man has to look to his food stock futures in this uncertain modern world! ;D
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gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4564 on: July 13, 2017, 12:52:23 PM »
I don't know about double and triple century breaks, but a series of (single) century breaks could be in the making given the current weather forecast.

is the ijis data daily or is is one of these five day running mean finangles. interested in my pork pie prospects here! A man has to look to his food stock futures in this uncertain modern world! ;D

I believe JAXA is daily measurement, i.e. totally raw data. The two century + breaks on July 11 and 12 have barely made any difference to the projections in my spreadsheet. The amazing late melt of 2012 resulted in a melt from July 12 to minimum of just 21% above the 2007-16 average, insufficient to produce a new record low.
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Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4565 on: July 13, 2017, 02:12:33 PM »
IMHO the weather forecasts are all right for the ice in the next 7-10 days. With the obvious premise that they need to be confirmed in the next runs. Lots of clouds, some precipitations, low-gradient LP systems... Considering that this is the most challenging period for the arctic ice, if today's runs are confirmed, I  would tend to be optimistic about 2017 minimum. Moreover, temperatures have been normal or slightly lower than normal for many weeks so far, which obviously helps.

I would not be surprised if 2017 didn't end up in the top-three. But only time will tell.

Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4566 on: July 13, 2017, 10:38:37 PM »
I've had a go at charting day-to-day change data and thought I'd share (apologies if someone here has done this before for IJIS data).

The first one is pretty self explanatory: day-to-day change from day 152-255 (June 1st to Sept 12th in a leap year); 2017 vs the average for 2007-16. It's interesting but a bit noisy - a bit like watching a game of Pong in 'crazy' mode.

So the second one smooooths things out, using 7-day centred averages, e.g. day 200 is the average of days 197-203.

It shows clearly how 2017 compares with the 2007-16 average for the each 7 day period: early to mid-June running ahead, then back on track, then lagging behind since the start of July.
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4567 on: July 13, 2017, 11:44:54 PM »
...
is the ijis data daily or is is one of these five day running mean finangles. interested in my pork pie prospects here! A man has to look to his food stock futures in this uncertain modern world! ;D


Actually it is neither, it is a rolling 2-day average. Here is a copy of the relevant descriptive text...

"Averaging period and the update timing of daily data : In general, sea-ice extent is defined as a temporal average of several days (e.g., five days) in order to eliminate calculation errors due to a lack of data (e.g., for traditional microwave sensors such as SMMR and SSM/I). However, we adopt the average of latest two days (day:N & day:N-1) to achieve rapid data release. Only for the processing of WindSat data (Oct. 4, 2011 to the present) the data of the day before yesterday (day:N-2) is also sometimes used to fill data gaps."

It is worthwhile taking the time to read the explanatory notes on this page...

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/portal/vishop/#/extent

Scroll down to beneath the graph, and there you will find the notes. The extract I pasted above is from the section marked "Method for calculating sea-ice extent".

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4568 on: July 14, 2017, 06:27:59 AM »
IJIS:

7,926,319 km2(July 13, 2017)down 112,911 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4569 on: July 14, 2017, 11:00:36 AM »

Actually it is neither, it is a rolling 2-day average. Here is a copy of the relevant descriptive text...

Ah yes, then the double century would be a very rare occasion, triple century so far nonexistent.
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Hyperion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4570 on: July 14, 2017, 11:18:36 AM »
I like my meat rare. Often raw. Seared on the outside but just up to blood temperature on the interior is best. a two day running average is fine, I did after all suggest that it was highly likely that double centuries might become common in a few weeks. Can I have public confirmation on the 100 pound bet offered? to be frank 100lb of smoked NZ oysters is worth a hell of a lot more than 100lb of pommie pub pork pies, So i is being very generous with the odds proffered. ;D
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4571 on: July 14, 2017, 02:38:06 PM »
Wow, a solid century and loss of position!  Some of us thought, a couple month ago, that 2017 would be dancing in 1st place at this time.  It looks like it would take three consecutive double centuries to bring 2017 into 2nd place, and three more after that to reach 1st place.  (And double IJIS centuries are hen's teeth rare.)
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magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4572 on: July 14, 2017, 04:21:09 PM »
Wow, a solid century and loss of position!  Some of us thought, a couple month ago, that 2017 would be dancing in 1st place at this time.  It looks like it would take three consecutive double centuries to bring 2017 into 2nd place, and three more after that to reach 1st place.  (And double IJIS centuries are hen's teeth rare.)

i know that you are one of those who are aware of the dispersion thingy that all the years with lower extent on this given day did not have. if we virtually push the ice together into a solid floe we would be 1st place by far, not even putting thickness into account.

what we currently see is a two-dimensional illusion that is tempting for some to commit a three-dimensional error. ;)

as i said, i know you know, just to round up for those who forget about that more often.
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Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4573 on: July 14, 2017, 04:25:49 PM »
Perhaps Hyperion could take heart in previous triple century increases! I see one in October 2006 and one in October 2007...
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4574 on: July 14, 2017, 05:01:29 PM »
Magna, area/concentration is measuring the thing you are talking about, and I find your statement untrue. Area is currently third begind 2012 and 2016 in Wipneus' AMSR2 thread, providing the most accurate and highest-resolution measurement.

greatdying2

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4575 on: July 14, 2017, 07:27:15 PM »
While do I understand that the horse race is fun, just keep in mind that the absolute position is meaningless if different years are so close as to perhaps be within the error of measurement, not to mention the random timing of weather, etc.

But it shouldn't be surprising that 2017 hasn't yet taken a giant lead (so to speak  :P ), given its late start due to excess snow (at least, so some say). On the contrary, given a late start, it's surprising that it is so close to first place. Of course, this is likely due to the ice being thinner (supposedly) and in worse condition than possibly any other year, to date. Instead, the real question is, will that (supposed) thinness/weakness translate into anomalous (vs. recent years) late-season melt and if so, how much ice will be left going into next winter?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4576 on: July 14, 2017, 11:22:13 PM »
Magna, area/concentration is measuring the thing you are talking about, and I find your statement untrue. Area is currently third begind 2012 and 2016 in Wipneus' AMSR2 thread, providing the most accurate and highest-resolution measurement.

no problem, it's always good to have different opinions to consider, i just think that that what you find untrue is the reason why extent is not showing the current state of the melting season but we shall see. should there be widely spread sudden drops or even a new low this year this despite the fact that extent doesn't indicate that right now, i think it was true, else i will remember your point of view and eventually correct my opinion.

enjoy further and a have nice weekend

cheers
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Hyperion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4577 on: July 15, 2017, 12:33:08 AM »
Perhaps Hyperion could take heart in previous triple century increases! I see one in October 2006 and one in October 2007...

Don't worry Deeenngee. We've crow barred loose a big IceCube from the Larsen and have hooked it to our winning Americas Cup Cat to tow up there for you guys to use as a polar bear sanctuary. With the head released from the huge influxes of water vapour raining out over the basin causing a stupendous updraft into the stratosphere, that is then descending in the southern hemisphere, the North Pacific and Atlantic are now chock full of tropical levels of water vapour. Record flood events in asia and europe are an advance warning of what the arctic is up for.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
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Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4578 on: July 15, 2017, 04:16:30 AM »
Poor FeeltheBurn. Every time he opens his mouth there's another century drop.

Good point! I should change course and predict total collapse of the ice and, because I'm always wrong, ice will be saved!

On the other hand, like velocity, the rate of ice loss is relative. Although melting has increased compared to earlier in 2017, it is slower than previous years because 2017 has "fallen" to 6th place, if only temporarily. But wasn't falling to 6-8th place what I thought might happen in a previous post?
Feel The Burn!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4579 on: July 15, 2017, 05:37:05 AM »
And with the biggest drop (131187) so far this year 2017 falls to 4th lowest, dropping below 2007 and 2014.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4580 on: July 15, 2017, 08:16:56 AM »
IJIS:

7,795,132 km2(July 14, 2017)down 131,187 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4581 on: July 15, 2017, 10:04:19 AM »
I wonder whether the series will be continued, or if we're going to see some 'unflashing'.
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Darvince

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4582 on: July 15, 2017, 01:57:29 PM »
I think the losses are going to start slowing down below century break level after tomorrow, based on weak lows moving into Chukchi/ESS in that timeframe.

Peter Ellis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4583 on: July 15, 2017, 05:18:55 PM »
Can I have public confirmation on the 100 pound bet offered? to be frank 100lb of smoked NZ oysters is worth a hell of a lot more than 100lb of pommie pub pork pies, So i is being very generous with the odds proffered. ;D
I don't bet commodities.

On reflection - a single double century is not completely impossible given day-to-day noise and satellite glitches.  I'd still bet against it, but not as much as a hundred pounds.  If you want to formally take me up on my bet, I'd suggest the following:

I bet the sum of 100 UK pounds that during this year's melt season, the daily loss figures as calculated by NIPR will show:
* No triple century losses
* No more than one double century loss

Small print:
* 1:1 odds, can't be bothered with anything else. 
* £100 UK currency, or equivalent in any other currency at the exchange rates on the day the bet is concluded.
* Loser donates the requested sum to a charity of the winner's choice.
* Happy to use any sensible definition of "this year's melt season" - say between now and the end of October?
*  NIPR data is as per the CSV file downloadable from this page: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
* No fannying about trying to reverse-engineer single day figures from the two day average. We use the published numbers as they stand, barring obvious glitches and data drop-outs.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4584 on: July 16, 2017, 10:16:11 AM »
IJIS:

7,674,003 km2(July 15, 2017)down 121,129 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Hyperion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4585 on: July 16, 2017, 03:46:20 PM »
I don't bet commodities.

Pity Peter. I do my best to avoid currency transactions these days. Too prone to leak into the hands of the corporats and govt f**kpigs that are determined to use it to keep killing the planet.
And I was looking forward to seeing video of you delivering the Pork pies to <snip; N.>.  ;D
We've nearly seen two consecutive doubles in the last couple of days with 344 extent losses in 48hrs. The forecast does look very good for this to be exceeded in the next few days.

Do have a think about the Oysters offer. Be a good excuse for you to come down here and pick them up, thereby avoiding the 200ft wavetrains demolishing all the cities and nuclear reactors on the nth atlantic coastlines in a few months time when Hansens cyclone cannon starts to crank its engine good and proper for the first time in 100000years.  ;)
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 09:55:56 AM by Neven »
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4586 on: July 16, 2017, 03:55:49 PM »
We've nearly seen two consecutive doubles in the last couple of days with 344 extent losses in 48hrs.
In NSIDC yes, but not so in IJIS/JAXA data. Much harder to achieve.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4587 on: July 16, 2017, 04:10:21 PM »
I looked at what 5 consecutive days of century + breaks did to my simple projections. The answer : not a lot. Simply put, the century+ days compensated for the previous few days of well below average extent loss.

The average for the last 10 years suggests that 65% of the total extent loss is done, just 35% to go. By the end of July average extent loss per day starts to decline significantly. So while a modest uptick in melting will still be sufficient to produce a second-lowest minimum, records are getting further out of reach (whereupon the ice just faded away).

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Peter Ellis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4588 on: July 16, 2017, 11:59:39 PM »
<snip>
... what?  This forum's OK with casual racism now?
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 09:56:23 AM by Neven »

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4589 on: July 17, 2017, 12:47:54 AM »
And I was looking forward to seeing video of you delivering the Pork pies to a local Mosque to feed climate change refugees.  ;D
... what?  This forum's OK with casual racism now?
I missed that.  It's not OK as far as I'm concerned <directs a level gaze at Hyperion>
This space for Rent.

wili

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4590 on: July 17, 2017, 01:08:48 AM »
Yeah, thanks for pointing that out. I'm adding Hyp to my very short 'ignore' list. I invite everyone offended to contact the mods.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Hyperion

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4591 on: July 17, 2017, 02:52:04 AM »
<snip; N.>
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 09:56:50 AM by Neven »
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4592 on: July 17, 2017, 03:22:33 AM »
<snip;N.>.

The topic is IJIS!
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 09:57:20 AM by Neven »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4593 on: July 17, 2017, 03:42:20 AM »
<snip;N.>
...

The topic is IJIS!
I thought it was ISIS?? Is IJIS a Japanese offshoot?  :o
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 09:57:35 AM by Neven »

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4594 on: July 17, 2017, 04:28:21 AM »
<snip;N.>
... what?  This forum's OK with casual racism now?

That comment earned him a spot on my "Ignore List". He should feel honored. It is a select group, only three others, two of whom no longer post here.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 09:58:01 AM by Neven »

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4595 on: July 17, 2017, 05:31:19 AM »
I thought it was ISIS?? Is IJIS a Japanese offshoot?  :o

Nice one, BBR! Now back to our topic, ISIS, er IJIS.

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4596 on: July 17, 2017, 05:50:59 AM »
<snip;N.>
... what?  This forum's OK with casual racism now?

That comment earned him a spot on my "Ignore List". He should feel honored. It is a select group, only three others, two of whom no longer post here.

I've come to expect comments like that on forums having moderators getting their proper sleep. Forums that are open only when a moderator is awake, are unsurprisingly better moderated, but gather quite a little number of followers.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 09:58:28 AM by Neven »
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

TerryM

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4597 on: July 17, 2017, 07:13:55 AM »
Oh lighten up! Muslims come in all different races and colours.
...

The topic is IJIS!
I thought it was ISIS?? Is IJIS a Japanese offshoot?  :o
Ramen !!

wili

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4598 on: July 17, 2017, 07:30:00 AM »
Terry, you keep using this term. I know you are punning "Amen," but this word has a kind of interesting etymology. It is written with katakana, basically like italics in English, it is use for words that are not originally Japanese.

This fact got me interested, so I dug a bit and found that 'ramen' is what the Japanese did to the Chinese word that we (those who frequent Chinese restaurants, at least) know as Lo Mein...basically a noodle dish.

Just thought you might find it interest. Sorry for the OT.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4599 on: July 17, 2017, 08:16:51 AM »
IJIS:

7,590,232 km2(July 16, 2017)down 83,771  km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!