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Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4950 on: September 15, 2017, 07:24:41 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
Life's hard, but we need to go on in a way or another...

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4951 on: September 15, 2017, 07:44:55 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
Life's hard, but we need to go on in a way or another...
Beyond the absurdity of somehow making denialists pay, I have to say I'd love nothing better than to to have them proved right... but I won't be, nor will the climate cooperate.

What we are seeing is the climate equivalent of a fugue, as we go through a period of chaotic behavior as we transition from year round ice coverage to seasonal coverage.
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4952 on: September 15, 2017, 10:58:22 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
I highly mislike your statement. And the arctic needs more ice, not less, and when it does go ice free we will all pay.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4953 on: September 15, 2017, 11:06:26 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
I highly mislike your statement. And the arctic needs more ice, not less, and when it does go ice free we will all pay.

He's just trolling. He's made the same joke four or five times already.
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Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4954 on: September 15, 2017, 01:33:52 PM »
This has been a weirdly flat and boring end to the season.  Variability in extent over the past 30 days* is the lowest it's been since before 2007:



* I.e., the standard deviation of extent during the 30 days from Aug 16-Sep 14 each year

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4955 on: September 15, 2017, 01:57:34 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!

you mean to value being right and revenge (they have to pay) over the health and wellbeing fauna and flora ?

this is an approach that caused most wars in the past and still does. we need a healthy stable climate and not a catastrophe just to feel we were right. i was wrong about this melting season when it came to my expectations for second lowest and that's GOOD not bad, for example LOL
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gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4956 on: September 15, 2017, 02:38:43 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice! 

 we need a healthy stable climate
Methinks perhaps Unmex Chingon was into black humour.
The melting season is not quite over - PIOMAS for september and october will be interesting.
Even if it is over, this does not mean we are any closer to a healthy stable climate.
My speculation is that perhaps AGW is leading to changes in seasonal weather patterns all over the place at a rate of knots that may become even harder to predict.
e.g. How come extent loss sort of died after August 14th?
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ra3000

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4957 on: September 15, 2017, 04:32:43 PM »
Even though we may have a notion on how Climate works, we can't predict exactly what will be the state of the Arctic after the melting / refreeze seasons for instance.
Across the whole summer average temperatures have been relatively cool and, despite of this, we have seen drops in extension that didn't seem to go in hand with the temperatures we were collecting. It hasn't been until the end of August when we have started to see things decreases flatten.
I think we shouldn't break our heads, the melting season is over (or very close to) and now we have the Big picture of all of it, and its summary would be: relatively cool temperatures, extension area low, following the declining trend (not only in extension, but also on multiyear ice, slushy, etc) but obviously there is a correlation between temperatures and ice, so that's maybe why some expected lower extension numbers, but this does contradict the trend at all in my opinion. We obviously should try to keep learning from the Cryosphere, and to find out the intrincancies of the Climate, like for example why extension numbers kept falling fast until almost the end of the season despite having almost a whole summer without large positive temperature anomalies? 

Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4958 on: September 15, 2017, 08:20:07 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
I highly mislike your statement. And the arctic needs more ice, not less, and when it does go ice free we will all pay.

He's just trolling. He's made the same joke four or five times already.

I know it is OT but I'm suffering similar on some of the forums I frequent.After telling the board I had given up and that they ( the resident Denialists) had 'won' they have gone bonkers?

Some who quit posting there years ago are back giving me grief about my accepting that we are now beyond the point where we could have avoided some of the worse the science shows us ( esp. when we continue on beyond B.A.U.?).
I now realise they are just 'malcontents' and without me there is nothing to be horrid about?
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Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4959 on: September 15, 2017, 10:36:50 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
I highly mislike your statement. And the arctic needs more ice, not less, and when it does go ice free we will all pay.

He's just trolling. He's made the same joke four or five times already.

I think he's a denier speaking sarcastically.
Feel The Burn!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4960 on: September 16, 2017, 09:46:58 AM »
IJIS:

4,541,251 km2(September 15, 2017)up 42,078 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Quantum

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4961 on: September 16, 2017, 12:46:27 PM »
I think I actually predicted 4.5 as the minimum in some of the sea ice prediction threads. Is there anyway to verify this?

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4962 on: September 16, 2017, 01:28:39 PM »
I think I actually predicted 4.5 as the minimum in some of the sea ice prediction threads. Is there anyway to verify this?
When you enter each of these threads, at the top, you will see the bin you voted for shown in bold font.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4963 on: September 17, 2017, 10:33:39 AM »
IJIS:

 4,577,641 km2
(September 16, 2017)up 36,390 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

crandles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4964 on: September 17, 2017, 12:40:45 PM »
Only following 2005 path would get to a new minimum, so it is getting close to being able to call we are past minimum on IJIS.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4965 on: September 17, 2017, 05:15:59 PM »
I'll go out on a (very short) limb and state my opinion that 2017 IJIS extent did indeed bottom out at 4.47 km2 on September 9, for a sixth place finish.

« Last Edit: September 17, 2017, 08:39:02 PM by Jim Pettit »

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4966 on: September 17, 2017, 07:36:17 PM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
I highly mislike your statement. And the arctic needs more ice, not less, and when it does go ice free we will all pay.

He's just trolling. He's made the same joke four or five times already.

Trolling with little talent.

Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4967 on: September 17, 2017, 10:32:19 PM »
Cross-posting from the melting season thread.

(I think I might call this a running back graph for any NFL fans out there)
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crandles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4968 on: September 18, 2017, 01:54:08 AM »
I predict a successful running back that makes it all the way to day 365 endzone. ;)

Jim Hunt

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4969 on: September 18, 2017, 08:40:33 AM »
I'll go out on a (very short) limb and state my opinion that 2017 IJIS extent did indeed bottom out at 4.47 km2 on September 9, for a sixth place finish.

Be careful Jim. I went out on that self same limb a couple of days ago:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-16
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4970 on: September 18, 2017, 01:30:02 PM »
I'll go out on a (very short) limb and state my opinion that 2017 IJIS extent did indeed bottom out at 4.47 km2 on September 9, for a sixth place finish.

Be careful Jim. I went out on that self same limb a couple of days ago:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-16

That was brave of you. ;-) But I'm even more confident this morning: IJIS extent has increased seven of the past eight days, for a net gain of 118k, and since there is simply no historical precedence for losing that much sea ice extent here in the second half of September, my personal opinion (as opposed to the "official" ASIF one) is that we bottomed out last week, and it's all uphill for the next six months or so...

Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4971 on: September 18, 2017, 03:15:28 PM »
I'll join you on that limb... so here are the daily minima for each year, 2003-2017:



Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4972 on: September 18, 2017, 03:26:43 PM »
Cross-posting from the melting season thread.

(I think I might call this a running back graph for any NFL fans out there)

I really like that graph.  Very nice design.

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4973 on: September 18, 2017, 04:13:30 PM »
I'll join the discussion to make my very humble point. In my opinion the minimum has been set and will not be updated. My assumption is based on the synoptic charts available today which, in spite of some compaction on chukchi and beaufort in the next few days, show an overall considerable temperature drop in many other sectors of the Arctic. Moreover some dispersion towards Kara, Barents and Laptev will be achieved after the action of the LP forming in the next few hours.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4974 on: September 18, 2017, 07:28:54 PM »
IJIS:

4,590,075 km2
(September 17, 2017)up 12,434 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4975 on: September 19, 2017, 05:42:00 AM »
IJIS:

 4,593,958 km2(September 18, 2017)up 3,883 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4976 on: September 19, 2017, 09:07:08 AM »
Cross-posting from the melting season thread.

(I think I might call this a running back graph for any NFL fans out there)

I really like that graph.  Very nice design.

(Thank you, that's good of you. Style-wise I've learnt a lot from Tamino over at Open Mind and all who advocate more minimalist design.)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4977 on: September 20, 2017, 04:29:36 PM »
IJIS:

4,586,260 km2(September 19, 2017)down 3,815 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Pavel

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4978 on: September 20, 2017, 04:57:22 PM »
Most likely it will get to the 3d lowest in several days. I also expect slow October and November freeze up because of high SSTs in the peripheral seas - one of the consequences of the last melting season

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4979 on: September 20, 2017, 05:58:27 PM »
IJIS:

down 3,815 km2

This should be 7,698 km2, right?

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4980 on: September 20, 2017, 06:05:17 PM »
Most likely it will get to the 3d lowest in several days. I also expect slow October and November freeze up because of high SSTs in the peripheral seas - one of the consequences of the last melting season

Might also be slow if we experience a stormy Fall in the Arctic.

AbruptSLR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4981 on: September 20, 2017, 07:55:22 PM »
It looks like NSIDC put the blame for 2017's relatively low rate Arctic sea ice loss on "… a persistent pattern of low sea level pressure over the central Arctic Ocean":

Title: "Arctic summer ice melt slowed by low sea pressure"

https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/arctic-summer-ice-melt-declines-study

Extract: "Scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) said the rate of ice loss this summer had been slowed by a persistent pattern of low sea level pressure over the central Arctic Ocean, the Press Association reported."
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A-Team

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4982 on: September 20, 2017, 09:40:04 PM »
Fall equinox is coming up on Sept 22nd; spring 2018 is on Mar 20th. These would be 'logical' times to shift over to a freezing season forum and dates that we could stick to for a few years (?). The first priority may be to dump DMI 80ºN in favor of something far more nuanced and highly resolved: forecast 2 m air temperatures averaged over each latitude separately, in conjunction with daily ice surface temperature (upper right) and effect on ice thickness and area (lower left).

Longitude lines are at 10º spacing; latitudes at 1º. Data from ESRL REB.2017-09-18.nc; mapping by NASA GISS PanoplyCL 4.8.3 β0301; tiled layer sliced animations in Gimp 2.8.22; ºdifficulty 1.5 scale 5.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 10:41:20 PM by A-Team »

Rob Dekker

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4983 on: September 21, 2017, 06:57:51 AM »
A-team, that (temperature over time and latitude) is a really cool animation.
Thank you for your fine work.

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4984 on: September 21, 2017, 10:34:22 AM »
Most likely it will get to the 3d lowest in several days. I also expect slow October and November freeze up because of high SSTs in the peripheral seas - one of the consequences of the last melting season
A highly...questionable forecast in my humble opinion. Nothing suggests such an evolution in the short term, especially from a synoptic point of view. Positive SST anomalies in peripheral seas are absorbed quickly at the beginning of the re-freezing season, especially under synoptic conditions like the current ones, with very strong and cold winds and associated snowfalls. I can see it only go up, from now on.

Pavel

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4985 on: September 21, 2017, 12:13:52 PM »
Most likely it will get to the 3d lowest in several days. I also expect slow October and November freeze up because of high SSTs in the peripheral seas - one of the consequences of the last melting season
A highly...questionable forecast in my humble opinion. Nothing suggests such an evolution in the short term, especially from a synoptic point of view. Positive SST anomalies in peripheral seas are absorbed quickly at the beginning of the re-freezing season, especially under synoptic conditions like the current ones, with very strong and cold winds and associated snowfalls. I can see it only go up, from now on.
Extent may increase because the ice pack moves, but not so much areas are ready for the real refreeze. Of course it's going to be colder, but north of 80 latitude temps are already far above average. SSTs will cool but the perepheral seas should delay freeze up. If there will be more strong low pressures it would'g get anything good for refreeze

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4986 on: September 21, 2017, 02:09:24 PM »
Pavel I take your point and on a general basis I agree that in the long term this bump will be absorbed within the general descending trend which remains there, crystal clear. In the short term I agree that the SST positive anomalies will slow down the refreezing, but I reckon this is part of the "new" norm, whereby the early melting of ice leaves wide portion of sea exposed to extra-heating in summer. Otherwise we would fall back to the "old" norm whereby refreezing was quick, massive and associated with free fall in the average temperatures. The ice is still much less than it used to be, and everything comes together, also in terms of how the refreezing happens.

Regarding the next few days, instead, I'm convinced that the persistence of a big LP with very low values for the GP and associated strong winds and precipitations, will help reduce significantly the SST anomalies over the arctic. It's still too early to get all the benefits from thermal HP which help release huge quantities of heat through radiation... this normally happens at a later stage of the season I guess...

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4987 on: September 21, 2017, 04:19:40 PM »
IJIS:

4,645,246 km2(September 20, 2017)up 58,986 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4988 on: September 22, 2017, 03:42:19 PM »
IJIS:

4,681,158 km2(September 21, 2017)up 35,912 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4989 on: September 23, 2017, 09:52:50 AM »
IJIS:

4,701,585 km2(September 22, 2017)up 20,427 km2 and 7th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4990 on: September 24, 2017, 10:24:45 AM »
IJIS:

4,701,127 km2(September 23, 2017)down 458 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4991 on: September 24, 2017, 05:04:13 PM »
IJIS:

4,701,127 km2(September 23, 2017)down 458 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.

To show how clustered together the data are, NSIDC currently shows 2017 in 8th place. And 3rd place is easily attainable since 2017 is only in 5th place by a hair.
Feel The Burn!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4992 on: September 25, 2017, 05:44:08 AM »
IJIS:

4,704,075 km2(September 24, 2017)up 2,948 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4993 on: September 25, 2017, 03:20:58 PM »
Of interest (?) is that on 9th Sep the 2017 minimum of 4.472 million km2 was some 400,000+ greater than the 2016 extent on that date. Some 15 days later (24 Sep) the 2017 extent is 100,000 less than the 2016 extent on that date. Half a million km2 difference in 15 days.
Every year is different.
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Pavel

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4994 on: September 25, 2017, 03:38:45 PM »
Not only the annual minimum is important. The 2017 melting season wasn't so innocent cause it get to very bad preconditions for the freezing season. Things may become pretty worse further in fall. From weather forecast we'll have at least 10 days with well below average freezing momentum

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4995 on: September 26, 2017, 05:30:02 AM »
IJIS:

4,755,321 km2(September 25, 2017)up 51,246 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

nick

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4996 on: September 26, 2017, 01:27:14 PM »
There's a real divergence coming up here. Exceptionally poor years are all below 6 m in mid October while most years are at or above 7m.

They do tend to converge later so I guess it's probably an indication that a particular region is late freezing.

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4997 on: September 26, 2017, 03:11:36 PM »
Anybody want to predict the March 2018 maximum? (not me)
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Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4998 on: September 26, 2017, 04:17:09 PM »
At 14.073 million km2, 2017 had the lowest 5 day extent maximum on record, beating 2016 by almost 100K km2. With a vast expanse of open water on the Pacific and Siberian sides of the Arctic, the maximum will depend greatly on the early freeze season and this has a great deal to do with FDD.

What will surface temperature anomalies look like this winter? Will they match the ridiculously warm temps of 2016? If so, I would not be surprised to see an all time low SIE max again and the first SIE max to slip below 14 million km2.

(Just realized my numbers do not match yours and I am certain this is due to the source of my data which was captured from here https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/

If you click on "Sea ice analysis data spreadsheets", you will find the maximum rankings.

The only thing more confusing than my post is me.)
« Last Edit: September 26, 2017, 04:23:58 PM by Shared Humanity »

gerontocrat

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4999 on: September 26, 2017, 05:23:42 PM »
This thread is called IJIS 'cos it is for Jaxa data - though I usually stick that at the top of all my postings. There is always a difference with NSIDC but of little moment.
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