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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #800 on: June 25, 2014, 05:13:31 AM »
IJIS:

9,762,148 km2(June 24, 2014) down 73,800 km2 from previous.

4th lowest.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #801 on: June 26, 2014, 05:52:31 AM »
IJIS:

9,691,329 km2 (June 25, 2014) down 70,819 km2 from previous.

4th lowest.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #802 on: June 27, 2014, 05:35:26 AM »
IJIS:

9,628,634 km2(June 26, 2014) down 62,695 km2 from previous.

4th lowest.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #803 on: June 28, 2014, 06:28:29 AM »
IJIS:

9,507,130 km2 (June 27, 2014) down 121,504 km2 from previous.

4th lowest.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #804 on: June 29, 2014, 06:16:47 AM »
Is there a visual representation of this year's June cliff anywhere (say, showing the past 2 days dramatic drop)?  The IARC-JAXA curves are not very easy to follow.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #805 on: June 29, 2014, 07:11:50 AM »
IJIS:

9,358,592 km2(June 28, 2014) down 148,538 km2 from previous.

4th lowest.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #806 on: June 29, 2014, 07:12:38 AM »
Is there a visual representation of this year's June cliff anywhere (say, showing the past 2 days dramatic drop)?  The IARC-JAXA curves are not very easy to follow.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent_v2.htm
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Bob Wallace

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #807 on: June 29, 2014, 07:41:17 AM »
And zoom in.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #808 on: June 30, 2014, 08:56:39 AM »
IJIS:

9,185,346 km2(June 29, 2014) down 173,246 km2 from previous.

4th lowest.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #809 on: July 01, 2014, 05:19:49 AM »
IJIS:

9,057,557 km2(June 30, 2014) down 127,789 km2 from previous.

3rd lowest, 2010 (-172,173 km2) and 2012  (-17,646km2) was lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #810 on: July 02, 2014, 05:58:50 AM »
IJIS:

8,936,847 km2(July 1, 2014) down 120,710 km2 from previous.

2nd lowest. 2010 (-115,842 km2) was lower:

Surprised? I am!
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #811 on: July 02, 2014, 06:27:53 AM »
No.  Too much heat.  Soot from wildfires have likely had at least a small effect as well (with two more HARD WILDFIRE MONTHS TO GO).

And I DON'T mean.....No, I knew it would happen.  I mean:  No...I'm not surprised, because there is a growing amount of heat inside the earths atmosphere....and I KNOW it will heat one of four things:  atmosphere, water, land, or melt ice.

And we know the direction of the trends:  (1) warmer air and water temps, (2) less ice.

Anyone on this site KNOWS the direction of the ice trend.  The only difference between almost everyone on this site is.......the difference of the speed of the destruction of the ice.

The ice is continuing to come "under duress" over the past years.....so logically it can't be in good shape.  And if we look back over the last 20 years.....we KNOW that "recovery years" DON'T LAST.  And two recovery years in a row.....while it has happened a couple times....is unusual.

It's just a matter of time.  Like watching a car on an icy hill.......waiting for the accident to happen.

By the way.....the one GOOD THING that could come out of a "bad ice summer" this year (ie bad in the sense of record low extent)......is that it would INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY of the gas pipeline NOT being built (personally.....I think Obama has been stalling as long as he can, KNOWING that the signs of global warming are intensifying and more people see them.....another new ice extent low would be just ONE MORE SIGN OF THE INEVITABLE....global warming continuing to increase).

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #812 on: July 02, 2014, 08:03:46 AM »
IJIS:

8,936,847 km2(July 1, 2014) down 120,710 km2 from previous.

2nd lowest. 2010 (-115,842 km2) was lower:

Surprised? I am!

I recall someone (don't remember exactly who? You Mr. Pettit?) saying something about 2012 losing 700K over the next week (starting a few days ago).  We may be keeping up.
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Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #813 on: July 02, 2014, 10:24:22 AM »
Surprised? I am!

Yup, 9 century breaks in the last two weeks. Not really surprised though, as there have been clear skies over the Arctic for quite a while now. I'm more surprised at SIA lagging behind so much (still very little melt ponds).

I'll be really surprised if this keeps up when Hudson and Baffin stop delivering. Then again, 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2013 had lots of century breaks in the first two weeks of July, and there's plenty of places left (Beaufort, Laptev/ESS Hole).

ESS Hole, that's a good one.  ;D
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #814 on: July 02, 2014, 11:10:49 AM »
Surprised? I am!

Yup, 9 century breaks in the last two weeks. Not really surprised though, as there have been clear skies over the Arctic for quite a while now. I'm more surprised at SIA lagging behind so much (still very little melt ponds).

I'll be really surprised if this keeps up when Hudson and Baffin stop delivering. Then again, 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2013 had lots of century breaks in the first two weeks of July, and there's plenty of places left (Beaufort, Laptev/ESS Hole).

ESS Hole, that's a good one.  ;D
Judging from my browse of Worldview, the Kara and Beaufort are both in a position to step up to the challenge.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #815 on: July 02, 2014, 03:38:00 PM »
...the one GOOD THING that could come out of a "bad ice summer" this year (ie bad in the sense of record low extent)......is that it would INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY of the gas pipeline NOT being built
Although the Enbridge pipeline in BC was just approved: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/northern-gateway-pipeline-approved-with-209-conditions-1.2678285 .
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

TerryM

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #816 on: July 02, 2014, 06:43:55 PM »
Lurker
I think that there is a good chance that the Northern Gateway still may not be built.
As well as tar sands sludge the pipeline was supposed to provide LNG to an energy starved China. The situation in Ukraine forced an agreement between Russia and China for the worlds biggest project which will deliver Siberian gas to China at a price that Canadian LNG can not compete with. A week or so after that historic deal was reached another project tapping another Siberian gas field and directed to another area of China was announced.
Australia has already cancelled major export terminals for LNG on the news.
Not sure the money people will ante up when their customer has found a much less expensive alternative.
If the South Stream pipeline is completed, as seems probable, the $5B Nuland invested in destabilizing Ukraine may have to be written off as a bad investment.[size=78%]
Terry[/size]

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #817 on: July 03, 2014, 02:50:33 AM »
Hi Terry,

I sure hope you're right (as do probably the vast majority of human beings, though not the vast majority of $).

OTOH, if the Russian option is cheaper, I guess it probably still means much more CO2, regardless of the source...

Actually -- call me a pessimist -- but I don't really think anything will stop us burning carbon until gone or at least far too late to avoid catastrophe. I would LOVE to hear informed, rational arguments to the contrary.

-- d
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Bob Wallace

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #818 on: July 03, 2014, 02:57:56 AM »
Here's what is happening in the US.  Look for the rate of change to accelerate....


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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #819 on: July 03, 2014, 03:08:57 AM »
Here's what is happening in the US.  Look for the rate of change to accelerate....
Negative feedback... too late?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Bob Wallace

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #820 on: July 03, 2014, 03:42:29 AM »
Depends on what "too late" means.

It's already (almost certainly) too late for the Arctic sea ice.

As for the planet, in general, the IPCC finds -

Quote
“A leaked draft of the report sent to governments in December suggests that in order to keep global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) by the end of the century — the stated goal of international climate talks — emissions need to fall by 40-70 percent by 2050.”

http://www.evwind.es/2014/04/05/what-is-the-future-of-fossil-fuel/44609

That's 35 years to drop emissions 40% to 70% from 2005 levels.  The US is already down 10% from 2005 in terms of energy related CO2 emissions.  I don't see any significant problems in us hitting 70%, cutting a bit less than 2% per year.  The 40% minimum should be fairly easy - <1% per year.

In about ten years our new cars will be required to average 54.5 MPG.  Right now we're averaging around 25 MPG.  And there will now be MPG requirements for large and small trucks for the first time.  That should result in a roughly 50% drop in CO2 for personal transportation.  And it does not take into account the likelihood of a massive move to EVs.

Airplanes and trains will cut fuel use simply because of economics.  Buses are starting to move to electricity.  New light rail and subway public transportation will be electric.

I expect most of Europe and China to do as well or better.  And I expect most developing countries will mostly move straight to renewable energy and install little fossil fuel generation.

Then consider what we've learned and been able to do in the last 20 years.  We've taken wind from being expensive to cheap and solar from being far too expensive to affordable.  We are pouring huge amounts of effort into new clean energy technology and efficiency.  It's hard to believe that we won't make very significant improvements over the next 20 years, leaving us another 15 to get those technologies in place.


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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #821 on: July 03, 2014, 05:16:30 AM »
IJIS:

8,866,060 km2(July 2, 2014) down 70,787 km2 from previous.

3rd lowest 2010 (-134,340 km2) and 2012 ( -31,325 km2) was lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #822 on: July 03, 2014, 06:14:02 PM »
Now it is interesting whether 2014 will follow the 2012 path or turn right as 2010 did  (or left depends how you look at it)?
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #823 on: July 04, 2014, 05:19:43 AM »
IJIS:

8,777,806 km2(July 3, 2014) down 88,254 km2 from previous.

3rd lowest 2010 (-106,353 km2) and 2012 ( -31,871 km2) was lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #824 on: July 05, 2014, 05:35:10 AM »
IJIS:

8,698,978 km2(July 4, 2014) down 78,828 km2 from previous. 

3rd lowest 2010 (-76,537 km2) and 2012 ( -24,821 km2) was lower.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #825 on: July 06, 2014, 05:14:46 AM »
IJIS:

8,647,194 km2(July 5, 2014) down 51,784 km2 from previous.

4th lowest 2010 (-70,025 km2), 2011 (-51,731 km2) and 2012 (-83,714 km2) was lower.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #826 on: July 07, 2014, 06:22:58 AM »
IJIS:

8,553,014 km2(July 6, 2014) down 94,180 km2 from previous.

4th lowest 2010 (-26,679 km2), 2011 (-56,460 km2) and 2012 (-130,015 km2) was lower.

 
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #827 on: July 08, 2014, 05:16:40 AM »
IJIS:

8,443,850 km2(July 7, 2014) down 109,164 km2 from previous.

3rd lowest 2011 (-72,596 km2) and 2012 (-72,786 km2) was lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #828 on: July 09, 2014, 05:18:48 AM »
IJIS:

8,344,111 km2(July 8, 2014) down 99,739 km2 from previous.

3rd lowest 2011 (-114,919 km2) and 2012 (-84,344 km2) was lower.

 
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #829 on: July 10, 2014, 05:23:44 AM »
8,236,429 km2(July 9, 2014) down 107,682 km2 from previous.

3rd lowest 2011 (-150,195 km2) and 2012 (-126,482 km2) was lower.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #830 on: July 10, 2014, 01:27:04 PM »
Wow (?), a century loss and 2014 still lost 'ground' compared to both years with lower extent. 

This is the season of melt, and century plus losses are the norm.  So, "Wow" should really be reserved for slow weeks or 10-century weeks.  Or maybe for a day's melt  that catches up by a century?
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #831 on: July 11, 2014, 05:36:37 AM »
IJIS:

8,135,962 km2(July 10, 2014) down 100,467 km2 from previous.

3rd lowest 2011 (-161,086 km2) and 2012 (-159,390 km2) was lower.

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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #832 on: July 11, 2014, 05:21:35 PM »
I believe *) 2014  have a potential to be in the Top 2 league, when it comes to extend, not a prediction I would have made 2 weeks ago?

*) based on the "unpopular" Bremen map! ;)
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #833 on: July 11, 2014, 07:10:35 PM »
Espen,
According to  my June SIPN submission 2014,  extent doesn't really  start  to  melt  out  until next  week,  but  when it does it will be breathtaking.   Once it reaches 7.7 Mkm^2  it falls through the floor for about three weeks.  Anything  worse than 2nd lowest is almost unachievable.  A record is almost  a 90% chance.
I  may be wrong but  my prediction based on April data has hit most  of my  key markers and only  failed when the real extent has been less than the prediction.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #834 on: July 11, 2014, 07:44:42 PM »
Espen,
According to  my June SIPN submission 2014,  extent doesn't really  start  to  melt  out  until next  week,  but  when it does it will be breathtaking.   Once it reaches 7.7 Mkm^2  it falls through the floor for about three weeks.  Anything  worse than 2nd lowest is almost unachievable.  A record is almost  a 90% chance.
I  may be wrong but  my prediction based on April data has hit most  of my  key markers and only  failed when the real extent has been less than the prediction.

The word "may" is always good! ;)
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #835 on: July 12, 2014, 02:03:45 AM »
I  MAY be out on a limb here but  I am staying until I  see evidence to  refute my  prediction.  Better to  be wrong than to  claim I  would have been right if I'd only  predicted it earlier.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #836 on: July 12, 2014, 06:14:49 AM »
IJIS:

8,040,838 km2(July 11, 2014) down 95,124 km2 from previous.

3rd lowest 2011 (-176,795 km2) and 2012 (-175,839 km2) was lower.

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greatdying2

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #837 on: July 12, 2014, 06:25:00 AM »
Better to have loved and lost...
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #838 on: July 13, 2014, 05:44:04 AM »
IJIS:

7,949,704 km2(July 12, 2014) down 91,134 km2 from previous.

3rd lowest 2011 (-256,587 km2) and 2012 (-176,649 km2) was lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #839 on: July 14, 2014, 05:28:25 AM »
IJIS:

7,899,861 km2 (July 13, 2014) down 49,843 km2 from previous.

3rd lowest 2011 (-328,835 km2) and 2012 (-175,831 km2) was lower.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #840 on: July 14, 2014, 10:29:18 AM »
Jaxa and all extent charts are about to fall way behind the lowest years and even 2013 at least into parts of the second half of June.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #841 on: July 15, 2014, 05:20:38 AM »
IJIS:

7,825,967 km2(July 14, 2014) down 73,894 km2 from previous.

4th lowest 2007, 2011 and 2012 was lower.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #842 on: July 15, 2014, 10:50:00 AM »
Friv,
My original prediction for extent put 2013 ahead of 2014 for the only time this season in the period leading up to 16 July. 


You  can see what  happens next.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #843 on: July 16, 2014, 06:50:05 AM »
IJIS:

7,745,907 km2(July 15, 2014) down 80,060 km2 from previous.

5th lowest 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2013 was lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #844 on: July 17, 2014, 05:17:41 AM »
IJIS:

7,656,338 km2(July 16, 2014) down 89,669 km2 from previous.

5th lowest 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2013 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #845 on: July 18, 2014, 05:50:31 AM »
IJIS:

7,577,065 km2(July 17, 2014) down 79,273 km2 from previous.

5th lowest 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2013 was lower.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #846 on: July 19, 2014, 06:09:18 AM »
IJIS:

7,549,262 km2(July 18, 2014) down 27,803 km2 from previous.

5th lowest 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2013 was lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #847 on: July 20, 2014, 05:15:12 AM »
IJIS:

7,518,544 km2(July 19, 2014) down 30,718 km2 from previous.

5th lowest 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2013 was lower.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #848 on: July 21, 2014, 06:50:31 AM »
IJIS:

7,489,716 km2 (July 20, 2014) down 28,828 km2 from previous.

5th lowest 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2013 was lower.

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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #849 on: July 22, 2014, 05:34:55 AM »
IJIS:

7,439,164 km2(July 21, 2014) down down 50,552 km2 from previous.

5th lowest 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2013 was lower.
Have a ice day!